Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:
• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.
• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.
• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.
• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.
• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.
• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.
• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.
• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.
triton
of course
the media will applaud doesn mean the people will don’t forget we only need 3 percent swing to be back in gov
that surprises a lot of people NO I haven’t read it here bu there are other people who can discuss number not just here you know
if you saw murdochs tweets
yesterday
of there is more to be done
so before he tweets does he ring tony
with the same advice
you can see his tweets just google twitter Rupert murdoch
you don’t need to be on twitter to seem them
chilling
Thomas
Gillard was drafted, and reluctantly. I’m unaware of evidence of plotting on her part.
As for the slagging of Rudd, I don’t recall seeing anything recently that wasn’t deserved. No one is saying he doesn’t deserve credit for his response to the GFCC, but that doesn’t make up for all his white-anting later that has now brought us an Abbott government.
Thomas
Gillard was drafted, and reluctantly. I’m unaware of evidence of plotting on her part.
As for the slagging of Rudd, I don’t recall seeing anything recently that wasn’t deserved. No one is saying he doesn’t deserve credit for his response to the GFCC, but that doesn’t make up for all his white-anting later that has now brought us an Abbott government.
Tricot
You are Meguire Bob in drag, aren’t you .. ‘fess up! Judging by his quotes of pub betting odds and adjusted poll results, his maths skills were also very shaky:
[not in sentences of more than ten words or no more than one syllable]
Now go back and read my post # 79 again.
victoria:
Napthine hasn’t struck me as someone prone to such outbursts.
Damn double posts. I clicked once.
victoria, I heard most of the Napthine interview but didn’t hear that part. I’m guessing there wasn’t much in the cancer comment or Faine would have made a lot of it or there would be complaints on talk-back and they’d still be talking about it.
confessions
Napthine has a very tenuous hold on power. He is one desperate man.
GFC above (twice), not GFCC.
triton
I did not hear it, but apparently Shaw was at the parliament yesterday, but did not attend the sitting citing ill health.
My Say. My comments this morning about tax have nothing to di with my loyalty to Labor which has only been reaffirmed in the past 2 weeks, for reasons I tried to articulate yesterday morning.
However, sometimes I like to make comments here which are essentially apolitical, and which should not be viewed through a prism of loyalty to one side or the other.
Taking that view, as a nation, we have a long term structural budget deficit problem. It is a legacy of Mr Costello, which Labor in Government could not/ would not address.
I am not advocating wholesale cuts to government spending. I am advocating increases in taxation, much as that would be to my personal detriment.
One option is to raise the GST, which the States are seeking, because under current arrangements the increased revenue flows to them, not the Federal government.
Another option is to increase company tax. I’m not a big fan of company tax increases, because in an international economy, headline company tax rates are an important factor in investment decision. Our present rate of 30% is high by regional standards, but relatively low compared to other western countries. Therefore, I would leave it untouched.
What I would favor is something like a 2% personal income tax rate increase, across the board, for all income earned above, say, $70k. There is no such thing as a pure or perfect tax system. The design of all tax systems involve compromise between competing interests – simplicity, equity, wealth redistribution and so on.
The advantage of a personal tax rate increase is simple, it is targeted directly at those with higher capacity to pay, and does not involve the complications of compensation for low income households. and the Federal Government keeps the money. to be blunt about it, i have a natural instinctive preference for the Federal Government to keep control of our national purse strings, largely because of the enormous respect i have for the Federal Treasury as an institution.
None of those statements are intended to be partisan. Just a realistic comment about the issues we face as a nation, which neither side addressed in the 2013 election campaign. Hence my feeling of sadness: that the way our political system has developed has meant we have lost, as a nation, the capacity for proper government.
Who do I blame? John Howard.
Abbott – RESOURCE giants will be told to step up their spending on mammoth new projects or risk losing their rights to tap the deposits,
=======================================================
For a man who has a degree in economics he displays a complete lack of any understanding of the economics of investment or development of these leases.
His comment displays no understanding of the commercial interests of the companies. He wants them to develop the leases irrespective of the costs in borrowing etc with the possibility that they will not get a commercial return that could even finance the loans needed to develop the leases.
Makes you wonder who sat his exams for his degree
Roxanna@50
So how do you feel abut the moronic Boerwar campaigning on PB for people to vote informal?
Good Morning
Regarding the GST. No compensation makes up for the impact on the low and fixed income people.
Compensation is just a right wing fig leaf to stop protests.
The only compensation that works is not to use a regressive GST tax.
Instead make billionaires and corporations pay their fair share of tax.
That is your compensation.
The GST is just the right saying transfer wealth from the poor to the wealthy.
well this is on twitter
30m
Tony Abbott’s website, with its years of transcripts of every word Tony had ever said as an MP, has been taken down
David Donovan @davrosz 31m
Tony Abbott’s website, with its years of transcripts of every word Tony had ever said as an
====================================================================davrosz 32m
Tony Abbott’s website, with its years of transcripts of every word Tony had ever said as an MP, has been taken down. http://www.tonyabbott.com.au
===============================================
sorry this was hard to copy
M77
The only drag here is you sport.
No I won’t sign your petition Psephos.
Mike Kelly has never been a union or party official – he is unsuitable and unqualified for a Senate spot.
The person who deserves Carr’s seat is the Senator who lost despite putting up a plucky fight – Ursula Stephens. She would be an ornament to any legislature.
17h
Libs are tagging this picture as offensive to get it removed from TL. So lets share it on facebook #auspol 🙂 pic.twitter.com/f53w36YulL
Retweeted by Bec M
mr bowe I do hope you are the keeper of our email address and they are very safe pls
M77
A little early morning fun with you as I knew you would take the bait.
Red rag to a red neck I guess.
[For a man who has a degree in economics he displays a complete lack of any understanding of the economics of investment or development of these leases.]
Labor tried much the same thing with Browse and how did that work for everyone? Bad enough to do silly things, but to repeat obviously failed experiments is moronic.
Where are the chorus of ‘sovereign risk’ how would anyone ever invest in Australia again if the investment decision timing is driven not by commercial factors but by a dangerous and stupid government.
I stress this is Not ME ITS OFF TWITTER
S @dopsdingers 17h
Libs are tagging this picture as offensive to get it removed from TL. So lets share it on facebook #auspol 🙂 pic.twitter.com/f53w36YulL
THE ABOVE IS FROM TWITTER NOT ME
Retweeted
[For a man who has a degree in economics he displays a complete lack of any understanding of the economics of investment or development of these leases.]
Does Rabbott have a degree in economics or was it a subject within a degree?
32m
Tony Abbott’s website, with its years of transcripts of every word Tony had ever said as an MP, has been taken down. http://www.tonyabbott.com.au
=====================================================
I wonder how long it will be before access is stopped and the site closed down to prevent all his comments being quoted back at him
M77
Before I go away, having had my fun with you, who is this Mgire Bog?
[The GST is just the right saying transfer wealth from the poor to the wealthy.]
Of course that is what they are saying, the ‘class war’ never finished it is just the right of the poor and disadvantaged to fight it has been removed.
[As unemployment climbed in August to 5.8 per cent, incoming Treasurer Joe Hockey has announced plans to stimulate the jobs market with increased investment into roads infrastructure over the next 12 to 18 months.
But an urban planning expert has warned that building roads will cost the economy, too – in a very different way.]
http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/experts_question_coalition_roads_jD8gG16SCbvlvGvkP3EBpN
The only seats in doubt now are McEwen for Rob Mitchell and Fairfax for Clive Palmer. Will we get an outcome today?
Abbott studied for a Bachelor of Economics and a Bachelor of Laws at the University of Sydney, and later for a Master of Arts as a Rhodes Scholar at Queen’s College, Oxford.
OUTSIDER
I AGREE WITH YOU to some point
but we now sadly are living I different times
where they are the enemy to us and eventually all the people
bit like being invaded in some ways
suppose ive read the diaries of my laws in 1941 a few to many times
so its all in this together as one
@PmPaulKeating: guess whats coming here #auspol “@AP:US House votes to cut $4B from food stamps and test applicants for drugs: http://t.co/OJWMzS8aIK -SS
I think we would be better off with a financial transaction tax (FTT) instead of the GST. For every transaction above a set amount it should be a requirement that the transaction is to be made via a financial institution and the tax collected. The level of the FTT would be around 1-2% with no deductions. It would be a relatively simple tax to collect without the administrative burden.
unemployment climbed in August to 5.8 per cent, incoming Treasurer Joe Hockey has announced plans to stimulate the jobs market with increased investment into roads infrastructure over the next 12 to 18 months.
=====================================================
and this expert now want to put up gst
that will un stimulate the economy
sounds good if you are wealthy like them
but to pensioners and other its a nightmare
whats the bet the PBS for medical prescription s the pension are paid will rise to 7 dollars
place your bets
and they will make dr charge patiients
AA
OK!
Years ago, I remember reading his credentials quite differently. 😆
I cannot remember there being a bachelor of economics.
Someone might like to do some digging.
Am off!
gee PJK and I on the same wave length
he knows why becaue he came from banks town
and I came from springfield
same upbringing
where did abbott and hockey come from best suburbs in Sydney
who would u rather have look after u
shame the peep like rummell don’t get it
ive mixed with rich people like them
and could not wait to get away from their company
victoria
[Will we get an outcome today? ]
They are deliberately not counting some votes in Fairfax today so any trickle of postals that arrive today can be added to them. (To ensure votes remain anonymous.) So my guess is no in that case.
And M77 – and I do really have to go … the bait was “red neck” and “conservative hack” as I did not mention you by nom-de-plume in my piece. But like a minnow coming for the worm, you bit.
Had my fun with you now time to do more important things.
Still weeks away for Senate results..
[
The delay in finalising the result is due to entering tens of thousands of below-the-line ballots into the commission’s computer.
That task could be completed by the end of the next week, at the earliest, allowing the distribution of preferences to be done, but the following Monday is Family and Community Day in the ACT.
The Greens say a significant proportion of their supporters voted below the line.
Ian Gordon, Australian Electoral Officer for the ACT, has written to all candidates about the timing of the outcome.
”A full distribution of preferences is not undertaken until the Senate fresh scrutiny is complete and all below-the-line ballot papers have been entered into our Easycount computer system in the Central Senate Scrutiny,” he told them. ”This is not expected to be completed earlier than October 1.”
Greens candidate Simon Sheikh continues to make very small gains as the counting continues, however, Liberal Zed Seselja remains well ahead on primary votes.
Labor’s Kate Lundy retains a Senate seat, despite a swing against Labor.
]
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/seselja-ahead-but-sheikh-gains-in-race-for-second-senate-seat-20130919-2u2ui.html#ixzz2fNsTkSwJ
triton
Why are they deliberately doing this?
81….Outsider
The first places to start with the tax system are the exemptions built into the super system for wealthy retirees and negative gearing/CGT concessions. Fix these, fix the economy, fix the budget at the same time. Then the original Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation system should be revived, which will increase transfers to the States.
An increase in GST will hurt households after a long period of stagnation in real per capita disposable incomes, and when income growth remains feeble. It is a really bad idea.
Now, to mix my last comment with a partisan view for a moment.
What I would dearly love to see Labor do in opposition is engage Ken Henry and Martin Parkinson after his “resignation” takes effect (two of the finest minds in our country), to work on a National Economic Plan, with a series of 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year horizons.
A plan than integrates all the big picture issues we need to address, as a nation. Things like aging population, climate change’s economic impact, infrastructure development needs, the growing cost of health care, strategic defence priorities, the environment. The role of debt in funding a National Government. What is the ideal debt to GDP ratio, across all levels of Government? . That sort of stuff. Then cost those projections. Once that has been done, serious tax reform can be contemplated, to ensure that revenue collections across those timelines can meet the needs of Government.
In an economic sense, the easiest tax reform is tax rate adjustments. I would go a step further, and embrace most of the Henry reform proposals released 4 years ago. But those reforms were directed at the deficiencies of our existing tax system.
The plan I have in mind is a much bigger one: which marries up, if you like, our national objectives with our revenue needs.
It’s all a bit Big Bang, I know. It also sounds vaguely Stalinist! We are not used to Big Plans.
But our country does need this sort of thinking to be done.
Once the planning has been done, it’s over to the masters of the messages. To realign the economists language with messages that people can understand. (Example: a Super Profits Tax, as in the mining context, has a particular and rational meaning to economists. Basically, it was an alternative royalty mechanism. Traditional royalty arrangements are based on gross revenues. The super Profits Tax was intended to replace the traditional royalty calculation method with one based on profits – that is, a tax applied on mining profit above a benchmark rate of return on investment, so that only the profit above that benchmark rate would be subject to the royalty. However, what people thought it was, god only knows. The application of royalties in a Mining context is based on a very simple concept: that the nation/state owns the mineral wealth, and that mining companies should pay a fee for exploiting that wealth. So we all get something from it, not just the mining companies and their shareholders. The messaging, use of language and selling of Labor’s mining royalty tax arrangements was simply wrong politically).
Maybe that’s the future for Labor? To become the party of ideas. The people who the country can rely on to take a longer term view of governing in the national interest. To break the cycle of viciousness that comes with 3 year parliamentary terms.
You see, as far as I am concerned, when I start to think about these things, the Tories have nothing to offer. Nothing. They are a mob whose sole interest is in power for power’s sake. They are bereft of ideas. Most of those they do have are plainly stupid, judged against my criteria.
It’s why I’m feeling sad. Because I don’t have confidence that we can do the things we neded to do.
So in this mood, on a African morning, I think I’m allowed to have a few dreams!!
Just received an email from Albo.
[bemused –
This a historic moment.
For the first time, you have a vote in who leads the Australian Labor Party.
I am standing as a candidate for Federal Leader because I firmly believe I am the best person to lead our party back into government in one term.
My story is a Labor story.
I grew up in Council housing, with a single mum who was on a disability support pension.
I was the first person in my family to complete high school, let alone university.
Labor made a difference to my life. That is what Labor governments can do.
We seek to govern not as an end in itself, but because we understand that government can provide opportunity and improve people’s lives.
We fight for a strong economy and better jobs.
We fight for opportunities for all Australians.
We fight for a sustainable Australia.
And we fight for the fair go – no matter your gender, race, ethnicity, religion, disability, or whom you happen to love.
But we have to change. We have to do better.
We need a bigger Labor Party, where members get more of a say on the important issues.
We need a Leader with the vision, unity and strength to take our party, and our nation forward.
I’m up to a hard job.
Our last Parliament was the most difficult since Federation.
Yet we delivered 596 pieces of legislation, including the NDIS, the National Broadband Network, and action on climate change.
My record shows I deliver results by working not just within our Party, but across the Parliament, in the community and with the business sector.
I am asking for your support to be the next Labor Leader.
Let’s rebuild our party together.
In solidarity,
Anthony Albanese MP
Federal Member for Grayndler]
democracy
Such a FTT would have threshold lowered by the LNP for same reason they like GST.
This is why they keep pushing the GST instead of the more efficient FTT. More transfer of wealth to rich
Briefly. I am 100% in agreement. Check out Treasury’s tax expenditure statement on its website. It tells you all you need to know about how much extra tax can be raised through abolition of the kinds of tax expenditures you talk about. The numbers in some instances are mind boggling. But also read my next post.
Got to go now. Work to do!
Outsider:
That sounds like a great idea. Contrast the numptyness of Abbott’s government and make them look very small by comparison.
victoria
I don’t know exactly, but it goes something like this: If they count all postals today but, say, a single one arrives in the mail by 6.00 pm, it will be the only one left, so people who handled the envelope and saw a name and address will know who that person voted for when 1 is added to someone’s count. So they hold back a bunch of postals from counting so any small number of envelopes can just be added to a bigger pile and they remain anonymous.
Sorry. My iPad converted Friday to African. Mind you, I wouldn’t mind right now being on the summit of Mt Kili, contemplating what is the world’s best view. But that’s another story!!
mr shorten doesn get any retweet on twitter well not where I am
outsider
my oh wants to take another trip to Holland
we have limited supper and now I don’t want to spend
it
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 9:47 am | Permalink
For a man who has a degree in economics he displays a complete lack of any understanding of the economics of investment or development of these leases.
Labor tried much the same thing with Browse and how did that work for everyone? Bad enough to do silly things, but to repeat obviously failed experiments is moronic.
Where are the chorus of ‘sovereign risk’ how would anyone ever invest in Australia again if the investment decision timing is driven not by commercial factors but by a dangerous and stupid government.
=================================================
It was Colon Barnett the WA Liberal Premier not the Labor Govt.
West Australian Premier Colin Barnett will oppose a push by the Woodside-led Browse Basin gas project partners to alter the conditions of their retention leases and process the gas offshore, rather than on the Kimberley coast.
The refusal to change the gas leases will frustrate plans by the Browse partners – Woodside, Shell, BP, Mitsubishi/Mitsui and PetroChina – to progress the multibillion-dollar project using floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) technology.
Mr Barnett told The Australian Financial Review he had no intention of adhering to calls to relax conditions in the Browse gas retention leases controlled by the state.
9 July 2011
Major Project Facilitation: Shell’s browse basin LNG project
The Hon Anthony Albanese MP
Minister for Infrastructure & Transport
Given its potential to bring new, revolutionary technology to Australia and promote even greater investment in our North West resources province, I have granted Major Project Facilitation (MPF) status to Royal Dutch Shell’s $12 billion Prelude Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) project.
It would also help meet the world’s growing demand for cleaner sources of energy.
By declaring the project “strategically significant”, I’m directing my departmental officials to do what they can to assist the company navigate and wherever possible, streamline the required planning and environmental approval processes. This declaration does not however guarantee a successful outcome.
If given the final go ahead by the relevant authorities, the project would develop the Prelude and Concerto gas fields located in the Browse Basin 475 kilometres north of Broome by deploying a specially built vessel to extract the gas from beneath the seabed and liquefy it on-board
[Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan 5m
proposed business advisers Maurice Newman. In an opinion piece in The Australian newspaper, Mr Newman wrote that the CSIRO and the weather bureau had become “global warming advocates” and persisted in propagating “the myth of anthropological climate change”.]
Next thing, Abbott will shut down weather bureau because it reports the truth.
Somebody stop the batardes.
bemused did u notice my tweet
re shorten
no retweets seen this lots of times