Week two flotsam and jetsam

Another review of the late counting situation, plus the Labor leadership vote, jockeying to succeed Bob Carr in the Senate, and prospects for electronic voting.

Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:

• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.

• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.

• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.

• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.

• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.

• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.

• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.

• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Week two flotsam and jetsam”

Comments Page 4 of 27
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  1. Gillard was drafted, and reluctantly. I’m unaware of evidence of plotting on her part.

    Thomas Paine is clearly misinformed, Kevin Rudd has lost the support of the ALP caucus. Julia Gillard was elected to fill the vacancy.

    The same situation occurred in Victoria when Premier Ted Bailliue lost the support of the State Parliamentary Liberal National Party. Ted Bailliue, unlike Kevin Rudd, acted with honor, having lost his position of leader withdraw and now sits quietly on the back bench. Where Kevin, like a spurned lover, consistently undermined the ALP government and his successor.

    Rudd’s actions caused until damage to what was in all other respects a positive and successful government.

    Julia to her credit having maintained the confidence of the majority of caucus had to endure a constant barrage from within by a minority fifth column attack.

    To Gillard’s credit in the final attempt to resolve the divisions called on a fourth leadership spill on the condition that who ever lost withdraw from politics. Gillard sadly lost that ballot, instead of undermining the Party Gillard rightly moved to the back bench and refrained from reflecting on the Parties leadership.

    Gillard has acted with honor, placing the interests of the party ahead of her own at all times. Those that claim otherwise do not know Gillard and are just paraphrasing false hoods.

  2. lizzie:

    Why is a business advisor worrying about the weather and climate projections?

    Sounds like Abbott wants to surround himself with ideological anti-science warriors than people to advise him on the business community.

  3. I worked at the bureau

    was my first psotion,
    had to leave because was pregnant true that was the cps
    those day

    I trained as an observer on the job

    the weather people are very protective of their
    profession and lives can be lost through weather and crops
    ect
    like to see him try

    but lizzie I am with you

    dictator ,,,,,,

  4. confessions

    Yes, Abbott is surrounding himself with “anti-science warriors” and Newman is one from way back. He had a detrimental influence on the ABc’s reporting of AGW and is sure to encourage the withdrawal of any funds to abate the effects of weather events, with the excuse of “waste” and “Myths”.

  5. bemused

    I am waiting for Meher Baba to pop up to suggest that Albo is not a good option for leader as he is most likely tainted by his association with Ian McDonald former MP in NSW State Labor

  6. Confessions #154

    Julia Gillard was a very competent Prime minister operating under difficult conditions. I believe she was the best suited person to lead a minority government. She deserves or thanks and appreciation. Kevin Rudd should resign from parliament in the new year. he has trashed his own legacy and history, rightly, will record Gillard in a positive light,

  7. triton@102

    Thomas

    Gillard was drafted, and reluctantly. I’m unaware of evidence of plotting on her part.

    As for the slagging of Rudd, I don’t recall seeing anything recently that wasn’t deserved. No one is saying he doesn’t deserve credit for his response to the GFCC, but that doesn’t make up for all his white-anting later that has now brought us an Abbott government.

    Oh dear, a sad case of wilful blindness.

    A very well publicised episode of 4 Corners skewered Gillard nicely on this with, among other things, the speech prepared 2 weeks in advance.

    Then you could also also read this article for example:
    Miners were not responsible for Rudd’s downfall
    [“As the media were leaked more and more about internal dissent and as he could see Julia drawing a growing clique around her he began to cave in to Wayne and Julia. He caved in to them on the ETS, on stitching the age pensioners and then on how to handle the (super profits) tax. They were hanging him out to dry.”

    Another insider, once aligned to Prime Minister Gillard said, “The resources tax did not bring about the fall of Kevin. There were those who were dissatisfied with Kevin. Some of the dissatisfaction was justifiable and some was certainly not. But none of it was justifiable to the extent that they should dump him.”

    “Bill (Shorten) was a major troublemaker because all he was about was having more personal influence in policy. He really felt rubbed out by Kevin. But Michael Danby hated (Kevin’s) guts only because of Kevin’s November (2009) stance on Palestine (in reference to cultural recognition by UNESCO).” Mr Danby is a Jewish Australian.

    “When David (Feeney) threw his weight in then it was all go for Julia. Paul (Howes) chimed in with support and not just the chatter and the others quickly lined up. It all came together very fast but it had been in the making for more than a year. Remember that Julia had staffers on to her speech even before the deal was sealed.”]

  8. lizzie:

    Ah yes, Maurice Newman, the former chair of the ABC. I wondered why his name was so familiar.

    Less than a week after they’ve been sworn in and already all the Howard-era culture warriors come crawling out of their caves.

  9. Pulling the teeth of the weather bureau will not be appreciated by businesses such as
    Farmers
    Pilots
    Fishers
    Fruit/veg growers
    etc etc

    Newman can STFU.

  10. democracy:

    She was one of the country’s best Prime Ministers in my view. I think her legacy will come to be lauded in the future.

    Agree re Kevin. Having wrecked the joint, he now needs to retire.

  11. Yes Rudd should go with some dignity, in approx 6-12 months.

    The ALP will not fully heal into he exits parliament.

    The new leader should not have to put up with his showboating and whiteanting.

  12. My Say

    Yes no matter his motivations getting Leaders elected by members of the party will be one of Kevin Rudd’s greatest legacies.

    It is the start of a change on the culture of the party regarding leadership.

    Caucus has embraced this with a few notable exceptions.

    There will be no repeats because the culture is changing.
    Given how much the membership likes it we know its going to get passed at National Conference.

    It truly is a new era for the Labor party and now there is no need to rake coals of the past.

    Just keep the party reform coming instead for a unified in accord with the community party

  13. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-20/pope-francis-says-church-must-shake-off-homosexuality-obsession/4970058

    Pope Francis said the Catholic Church must shake off an obsession with teachings on abortion, contraception and homosexuality or risk the collapse of its entire moral edifice, “like a house of cards”.

    In a dramatically blunt interview with an Italian Jesuit monthly, the Pope said the church had locked itself up in “small things, in small-minded rules”.

    Its priests should be more welcoming and not cold, dogmatic bureaucrats stuck in confessionals that sometimes resembled “torture chambers”, he said.

    Pope Francis, the first non-European
    ========================================================

    karma no3 for abbott to day

  14. [Yes Rudd should go with some dignity]

    He lost all dignity years ago surely. But according to bemused, he’s required to stay around to offer his support to the new leader. Said with a straight face.

  15. For those doing Rudd v Gillard debate I will put it another way.

    You are fighting history wars. Julia Gillard has retired from politics.
    Kevin Rudd will soon do so. Kevin Rudd has lost a federal election as PM and will not lead the Labor party again as a consequence.

    This is the reality and a bit less history war and a bit more fighting the Tories is in my opinion in order.

  16. ltep@168

    Yes Rudd should go with some dignity


    He lost all dignity years ago surely. But according to bemused, he’s required to stay around to offer his support to the new leader. Said with a straight face.

    He pledged his support to a new leader when he announced his resignation as leader.

    Do try to keep up and not stray too far from the facts.

  17. Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced he could commence the closure of both the Climate Commission and the Climate Change Authority.
    ————————————————–

    he does understand that these agencies don’t cause climate change but are there to provide for the reduction of pollutions that add the problem of climate change?

    And that shutting them down will not stop man-made contribution to climate change?

  18. Barrie Cassidy:

    [Short term, bringing an end to the constant media onslaught is a no brainer. Labor will fill the void while the leadership issue is unresolved, and in any case, the footy finals are well underway.

    In the longer term, however, the media has to be alert to the danger that Abbott and his ministers wind back media engagements primarily to avoid scrutiny and accountability.

    If that is both the motive and the effect, then that will become obvious soon enough.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-20/cassidy-abbott-wise-to-pull-back-but-not-too-far/4969208/

    That assumes a capacity of the press gallery which we haven’t seen in many years.

    Cassidy also refers to Baillieu’s strategy when he was first elected, and how it all fell apart for him because he pulled back too far and didn’t cultivate relationships with journos.

    The difference with Abbott is that he already has those relationships – fawning adulation even. I don’t really see any comparison between the two to be honest.

  19. ltep@168


    Yes Rudd should go with some dignity


    He lost all dignity years ago surely. But according to bemused, he’s required to stay around to offer his support to the new leader. Said with a straight face.

    Look if it was up to me i would have frog marched Rudd out of there the day after the loss but in the interests of maintaining team harmony i would give him 6 months.
    Regardless, he has to go sooner than later.

  20. guytaur

    Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    For those doing Rudd v Gillard debate I will put it another way.

    You are fighting history wars. Julia Gillard has retired from politics.
    Kevin Rudd will soon do so. Kevin Rudd has lost a federal election as PM and will not lead the Labor party again as a consequence.

    This is the reality and a bit less history war and a bit more fighting the Tories is in my opinion in order.
    —————————————————–

    Hear!! hear!!

    it’s boring and monotonous. And no-one’s argument is changing the others position. It’s like some are just stuck in a continuous loop destined to repeat the same things over and over ad nauseam

  21. What a load of rubbish, as if anything the ABC said about Julia Gillard can be relied on. These were the people who ran a comedy show of JG and Tim having sex under the Australian flag.

    I bet they don’t run anything like that about Abbott.

    I suppose the writer of that article is impartial about JG.

    This is the disclosure at the bottom of that article.
    [* The writer of this article, Gerry Georgatos, declares impartiality conflicts of interests. He pursued Prime Minister Gillard for sitting idly by as Indonesian children were incarcerated in Australian adult prisons. Gerry Georgatos spent two years campaigning for their release. Gerry Georgatos also alleged that Prime Minister Gillard deceived the Australian public over the Lobby Restaurant incident, in that it was untrue that parliamentary staffer Tony Hodges went rogue in contributing to the January 26, 2012 incident. He has written a suite of articles in describing the role of the Prime Minister’s Office in generating the incident.]

  22. bemused
    [He pledged his support to a new leader when he announced his resignation as leader.]

    Unbelievable that you would say this also with a straight face after his statements on leadership when Gillard was PM. I mean, seriously, why do you pretend that he is a man of his word?

  23. Western Australia

    ..two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting.

    There are in fact two junction points in the count, not one, where Sports party can fall over. Bpth fall within a margin of 220 votes (The margin has been wavering gove or take 50 votes as the count progresses) The first is a contest between Sports and No Carbon Tax Climate skeptics the second Rise Up Australia.

    Yes the below the line votes are crucial to the WA Senate count as is the distortion in the calculation of surplus transfer value and issues related to the process of segmentation distribution.

    Under current rules if Sport Party is out-polled at these crucial junctions and excluded from the count. Palmer United and the ALP second candidate is elected with the Greens relegated to the Droop Wasted Quota.

    Access to the BTL preference data file would allow scrutineers to properly monitor the progress of the election.

    An issue that Adam Carr is not concerned about, Ignorance is bliss.

    In Adams Carr’s words the correctness and fairness of the count comes second, as long as the interests of the part of his choice is the beneficiary of the flaw in the way the vote is counted. It is unclear if Adam Carr would apply the same belief when it goes against him as was nearly the case when David Feeney came close to losing his seat in 2007 as a result of the flaw in the way the Senate vote is counted.

  24. guytaur:

    I haven’t been following Labor’s leadership stuff in the media, but it seems to me that the only people we’ve heard from publicly are Labor people from NSW. In which case, of course they would be supportive of fellow NSWman in Albo.

  25. NEWS FOR PEOPLE

    Kevin Rudd will not lead the party again. You do not have to believe his word.

    The party membership will not vote for him and at least half of caucus will not. Political Reality.

    Kevin Rudd will move on. He has no choice. I take him at his word because I believe Mr Rudd is not stupid and sees at as his self interest and to maintain some legacy as bringing down Howard and saying Sorry etc.

    So please STOP. ITS OVER.

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@180

    What a load of rubbish, as if anything the ABC said about Julia Gillard can be relied on. These were the people who ran a comedy show of JG and Tim having sex under the Australian flag.

    I bet they don’t run anything like that about Abbott.

    I suppose the writer of that article is impartial about JG.

    This is the disclosure at the bottom of that article.

    * The writer of this article, Gerry Georgatos, declares impartiality conflicts of interests. He pursued Prime Minister Gillard for sitting idly by as Indonesian children were incarcerated in Australian adult prisons. Gerry Georgatos spent two years campaigning for their release. Gerry Georgatos also alleged that Prime Minister Gillard deceived the Australian public over the Lobby Restaurant incident, in that it was untrue that parliamentary staffer Tony Hodges went rogue in contributing to the January 26, 2012 incident. He has written a suite of articles in describing the role of the Prime Minister’s Office in generating the incident.

    The fact that the author crossed swords with Gillard on one particular issue does not invalidate the contents of the article and the facts contained in it.

    The author discloses the facts that could cause perceptions of bias.

    The fact is, Gillard has been a toxic agent long before she betrayed her leader in 2010.

  27. guytaur

    Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    For those doing Rudd v Gillard debate I will put it another way.

    —————————————-
    “You can spend minutes, hours, days, weeks, or even months over-analyzing a situation; trying to put the pieces together, justifying what could’ve, would’ve happened… or you can just leave the pieces on the floor and move the fuck on.”

    ― Tupac Shakur

  28. Gerry Geogartas attempted to found the “Real Greens Party” when he found that the Greens were too socially radical. He was the Wikileaks candidate for WA Senate and preferenced the Shooters and Fishers, Saleem’s Australia First, and the Nationals over the Greens. I think he could be described as a Libertarian or more commonly a nutjob.

  29. fess

    largely depends on how the new Labor leader handles it.

    We know – the evidence is overwhelming – that journalists are ‘lazy’ (I’m using inverted commas because I recognise that part of this is to do with lack of resources).

    Abbott provided them with easy copy, which he’s now talking about removing.

    This can backfire on him in a number of ways, such as —

    1. Without a flow of staged stories coming from the PM’s office, journalists are more likely to come up with their own. History shows us that the vacuum is filled by ‘insiders’ bitching about their party. We’re already starting to see stories like this coming from Liberal ranks. Without a more ‘positive’ agenda, this could be detrimental to the government.

    2. A savvy Labor leader could also fill this vacuum, and do a Tony but with more substance.

    3. If you’re used to relying on Tony for stories and he isn’t giving you any, that may become the focus of your stories.

  30. confessions

    I believe that it will be Albo. Enough Caucus members with membership seem to be going that way.

    Deservedly or not the tough choices Shorten had to make regarding leadership is costing him.

  31. confessions@185

    guytaur:

    I haven’t been following Labor’s leadership stuff in the media, but it seems to me that the only people we’ve heard from publicly are Labor people from NSW. In which case, of course they would be supportive of fellow NSWman in Albo.

    Yes, including that well known lefty and New South Welshman, Craig Emerson.

    Wrong as usual confessions.

  32. Also, i do not know how old these children were, some were probably young teenagers I assume, but I also realise that a 17 year old Indonesian young man is regarded as a child under our law. I am open to education on the subject by those with more knowledgeable on the subject than I, so what is the age of majority in Indonesia?

    We have culturally extended childhood in Western countries. Our young people remain under supervision into their late teens, and are not considered capable of independent thought and action equal even to their parents’ generation.

    It is a cultural shift I consider detrimental to the young people it affects and our society.

  33. Services Union ‏@ASUnion now
    The most senior unionist in the world, our very own Sharan Burrow, sends us a solidarity message as we fight to… http://fb.me/2F9OIqmDA

    Expand

    think we need Sharon to return that not impressed with what we have now
    especially their campaign

  34. zoomster:

    Having seen the soft handling Abbott was given by our media, I have no faith in its ability to hold his govt to account. I’d like to think that there will be demands for information and transparency if (when) Abbott avoids scrutiny, but based on what we’ve seen, I can’t see it happening.

    I’m sure that Team Abbott has cultivated sufficient relationships with key media people to ensure that no serious questions are asked.

  35. Geez we have a new Prime Minister who needs loads of criticism for him taking us back to the dark ages with his slashing and burning yet we get comments still about Rudd v Gillard on here.

    Some of you need to grow up!

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