Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. [Pseph true but his hero was Rosa L.]

    The Spartacist League had no actual connection with the German Spartakus group, they just borrowed the name. Rosa Luxemburg would have looked on them with horror.

  4. I am surprised no one has complained about how rude Trioli (sp?) was when interviewing Milne…so many interruptions and talking over her 😉

  5. Zoidlord, can you expand on your #1742 re the Convention on the RIghts of Persons with Disabilities? In my professional capacity I have had quite a lot to do with said instrument but I dont understand your reference. Thanks. MM

  7. [Goodnight. Time for my much needed but usually ineffectual beauty sleep too.]
    So you’re pissing off again because you are too gutless to defend yourself!
    [I think it is only fair to give ShowsOn some time to come up with a reason how he was not a supporter of drowning using his own logic :)]
    That’s correct. I wasn’t a supporter of drowning. Thank you for stating the bleeding obvious.

    You on the other hand are morally reprehensible because according to your own evidence you have consistently supported asylum seekers drowning!

    I haven’t even once read you criticise what Howard did over the Tampa affair!

    But I guess he can do whatever he wants because he’s a Liberal and you ultimately couldn’t care less just as long as the Coalition win elections!

    Could that be PRAGMATISM on your part!?

  9. “Doesn’t low interest rates mean the economy is rooted?” – That’s right, John Howard said “The economy will always be more rooted under a Liberal government”.

  10. Unbelievable!

    [The Coalition’s pledge to build a tent city for up to 2,000 asylum seekers on Nauru has been caught up in an alleged conflict of interest controversy.

    Opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison travelled to Nauru to make the policy announcement at the expense of the logistics company Toll Holdings, a provider of tents.

    Toll’s own website says: “We deliver camp and base logistics in remote locations”.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-30/coalition-accused-of-conflict-of-interest-over-nauru-tent-plan/4854280

  11. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Doesn’t low interest rates mean the economy is rooted?

    Europe…. U.S… Japan… etc etc etc
    ————————————————–

    Tony Tony Tony …….don’t you remember anything from your economics classes?

  12. Rossmore@1749

    My personal journey was heavily influenced thru involvement with Big Flame in the late 70s …

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Flame_(political_group)

    Not sure there was an Oz equivalent ….

    Never heard of them.

    Fascinating to read all this Trot stuff tonight and to discover that Psephos was once a Maoist.

    Ah the memories of doing battle with the Trots when they tried to take over the Victorian Young Labor Association. We didn’t have enough ice picks to go around so we just expelled them in the end. 👿

  13. Pseph 1753 thanks for that, I had assumed there was a direct lineage with Rosa L. How did the Oz Spartacists world view differ from Rosa L? Were they a uniquely Oz phenomenon? Sounds like they were a particularly self-absorbed group?

  14. I can understand being a member of the Sparts in the 60s or 70s. Kind of.

    But being a Spartacist in 2013? Believing that Australia is going to radically shift to organising society along Trotskyist lines? I mean REALLY? That sort of stuff would interfere with Masterchef!

  15. absolutetwaddle:

    [I was under the impression it’s about as easy to become an ex-Spart as it is to become an ex-Scientologist.]

    Oh no. The Healyites (later, the Northites) were a bit like that, but the SL saw themselves as a cadre organisation with a regroupment perspective rather than as a party on the verge of becoming the vanguard of the class.

    It was hard for more than a few recruits to cope with the disciplines of party life, so departures were common.

    There were a series of gradations between the party and the non-party … contact, disciplined sympathiser, probationary member etc …

    People guilty of minor breaches of discipline could be dropped a level very easily. Members really saw being in the party as being a bit like joining an army — a red army in embryo.

    Some liked it and others, not so much.

  18. Rossmore

    The Spartacist League really is a tiny group – and that’s by Trotskyist standards. It’s hard to find much ‘unbiased’ info on them, but the anarchist blogger Slackbastard writes about them occasionally. Give them a Google.

    You have to meet one to truly understand. Wild-eyed and pushy doesn’t begin to describe it, they’re really the communist equivalent of that guy between sandwich boards on a city corner yelling about The Rapture.

  20. Pseph was a maoist! what is it with Maoists and later life swings to the right – weren’t windshuttle and the late christopher pearson old maoists? at least you pulled up shport of their extremes and stayed basically on the side of good. I avoided all the left club joining at uni. I’ve never had too much time for fanatics of any creed and by the 1980s most were just elite private school ‘rebels’ – vivian in the young ones was about spot on.

  23. [There were a series of gradations between the party and the non-party … contact, disciplined sympathiser, probationary member etc …

    People guilty of minor breaches of discipline could be dropped a level very easily. Members really saw being in the party as being a bit like joining an army — a red army in embryo.]
    This sounds like a religious cult, not a political party.

  24. I recall the Sparts’ review of Black Deaths in Custody somewhere in the 1990s, which concluded that the issue was essentially all about class. As opposed the more obvious candidate of race, an apparent red-herring which has suckered the ‘soft’ left, and for that matter, roughly 100% of Aboriginal activists themselves.

    It was either them or the SLL.

    Beyond satire, and beyond help.

  27. [ haven’t even once read you criticise what Howard did over the Tampa affair!

    But I guess he can do whatever he wants because he’s a Liberal and you ultimately couldn’t care less just as long as the Coalition win elections!]

    Do try to remember that Labor supported almost everything Howard did in relation to the Tampa, and rightly so. Whatever one might think about boat arrivals, to have rewarded hijacking by letting the Tampa hijackers land would have set a very bad precedent. It was bad enough that Howard eventually let most of them come to Australia.

  28. AbsoluteTwaddle

    It’s now been a very long time since I was a member and I haven’t even had a subscription to their papers in more than a decade, nor have I bumped into any of them in about twice that long. I now have some very serious objections to some of the claims they make.

    That said, your description of them is unfair, IMO. They are very intense, but if you know your leftwing history, you can always get a robust and erudite discussion.

    While I essentially abandoned their perspective in the early 1990s, I continue to look back with fondness for my time with them. They were the most honest group of people I’ve ever met and known well enough to evaluate. They attached enormous importance to study and debate and were intolerant of sloppy argument, even in the service of the cause. And they believed absolutely in the struggle for the revolution which defined their purpose.

    Those are things I can very much respect, even though I no longer share their perspective.

  29. [Beyond satire, and beyond help.]

    Dont know about beyond satire?? They sound a bit like an offshoot of the Judean Peoples Liberation Front to me. 🙂

  31. [what is it with Maoists and later life swings to the right – weren’t windshuttle and the late christopher pearson old maoists?]

    Windshuttle was, I don’t know about Pearson.

    Maoism was a very unsophisticated form of leftism. Trots had read piles of boring theory, whereas we only had to memorise the Little Red Book. Maoism was essentially about action. You could join the Maoists one day and be smashing windows the next. In the atmosphere of 1971 at the height of the Vietnam War, being a Maoist was all fun and no boring stuff. But of course it wore off after a year or so.

  32. haven’t even once read you criticise what Howard did over the Tampa affair!

    and yet no criticism of the Liberals agreeing to dismantle the Pacific Solution

  33. Rossmore:

    [Have the Sparts rebadged as The Greens?]

    Certainly not. That would be anathema to them, for reasons I explained earlier.

  34. Made the ISO look like reasonable-minded Fabians.

    Oh, and Rossmore: I can guarantee you there are far more Trots in the ALP than the GRNs. Thats a fact. They’re called “entrists”, there’s a small movement of them, has been for donkeys.

  35. Fran

    Understood. I’ve only had contact with members of the SL at a few protests in my years at university (I’m 28). Back in the day I’m sure they were somewhat less psychotic.

  38. [Do try to remember that Labor supported almost everything Howard did in relation to the Tampa, and rightly so. Whatever one might think about boat arrivals, to have rewarded hijacking by letting the Tampa hijackers land would have set a very bad precedent. It was bad enough that Howard eventually let most of them come to Australia.]
    I’m more than happy to have a discussion about the Tampa fiasco with Mod Lib.

    But isn’t it telling that she goes out of her way to not criticise any Liberal actions on the issue? Why wasn’t she attacking the Nauru tent ‘solution’ tonight for example?

    Isn’t it convenient that she doesn’t concede that it is the Liberals that are constantly working over time to find controversy in the issue? And that it was the Howard government that broke about a 25 year bipartisan consensus?

    Could it be that Mod Lib doesn’t like admitting that it is the Liberal and National Parties that work over time to keep this issue in the papers, and even the boats coming along, because they score a lot of political mileage out of it? The actual welfare of the asylum seekers is very much a second or third order issue for the Coalition parties.

    But Mod Lib can’t say that, because she supports Coalition governments!

  40. lefty e@1784

    Made the ISO look like reasonable-minded Fabians.

    Oh, and Rossmore: I can guarantee you there are far more Trots in the ALP than the GRNs. Thats a fact. They’re called “entrists”, there’s a small movement of them, has been for donkeys.

    “Entrism” is a long-standing Trotskyist strategy.

    People can join the ALP with all sorts of weird ideas, but if they are also a member of an organisation that runs candidates in elections they should resign or be expelled.

  41. Well technically, in my case, yes, but the hiatus between my break of organisational contact with the SL and my membership of the Greens was at least 16 years, so ‘rebadged’ is not the right term.

    I’m alos yet to meet another ex-member in The Greens.

  42. Rossmore@1789

    Fran B 1783 Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens?

    More the Greens have acted as a magnet for all sorts of cranks and ratbags. 😛

    I shouldn’t complain. In the past the ALP got burdened with many such people. Now they go to the Greens. 😆

  45. Agree Bemused. One show at a time. But most of the entrists are happy to abide that principle.

    [Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens]

    Nah, ex-Sparts are more likely to become radical non-voters. Or something equally pointless principled.

  47. Speaking of entrism the Militant Tendency experiment in the British Labour Party was truly fascinating. There are a few docos on the subject on YouTube.

  48. Fran, 1791, fair enough and thanks for your honesty. I left the far left in 82, convinced that a mainstream social democratic party with left leaning credentials offered the best political prospects. Still hold that view….

  50. lefty e@1795


    Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens


    Nah, ex-Sparts are more likely to become radical non-voters. Or something equally pointless principled.

    Oh… Borewar must be one of them. 😛

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