Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. Bemused

    [“Entrismโ€ is a long-standing Trotskyist strategy]

    Yes and no. Entrism sui generis (i.e. longterm entry with the idea of manipulating the host for the ends of the party) was really a Pabloite strategy, which orthodox Trotskyists despised, precisely because it spat on the notion advanced by Lenin and continued by Trotsky that the revolutionary party was the key weapon needed by the class to achieve state power on a world scale. The implications were liquidationist, since if some other larger party could serve as well, why have the smaller party?

    This is why, Psephos’s assertion notwithstanding, I’d say that there are no authentic Trotskyists in the ALP today. Left laborites who like to sound off nostalgically about the Old Man occasionally? Sure. But not Trotskyists.

  2. I was trying to do strikethrough on the ‘pointless’, but HTML is not my friend. ๐Ÿ˜›

    If you’re going to not vote, at least look up Albert Langer and do it properly: have yours counted for a minor outfit. Still legal in the Senate I believe.

  3. lefty e@1799

    The entrist Trot deal is even bigger in the UK Labour Party, I believe

    Ahhh the Trots provided endless amusement.

    There was a movie “The Assassination of Trotsky” that upset them over some minor ideological point so they protested outside where it was screening. Just to annoy them my YLA branch organised a widely publicised Theatre Party to attend that movie. ๐Ÿ˜€ Had them seething.

  4. Lefty e … Yes and no… All my early voting life I and many of my mates lived under a Thatcher gov… The Blair gov, like the Rudd gov seemed like a light on the hill after all that crap. The reality was different but better a Labor or Labour gov than the silver tailed alternative

  5. lefty e@1805

    Forever ashamed.:/


    Dont be. I was in the DSP for 3 months in the late 80s.

    Hey, they had really great parties.

    The only ‘communist’ movement that ever interested me at all, and then only academically, was the ‘Eurocommunist’ parties of Italy and Spain.

    But they had eschewed revolutionary politics and embraced electoral politics. They were like a left wing Democratic Socialist party.

    The ideas of Gramsci were interesting and still have relevance. One of the foremost experts on him lectured at Monash Uni while I was there. Alistair Davidson.

  6. Rossmore@1809

    Night all, Troskyites, , Spartacists, Maoists, Greens, ALP members and all.

    Goodnight Rossmore.

    Ralph Miliband, father of Ed and David wrote some good books which I read and drew upon for ideas.

    Now I am going too. ‘night all.

  7. Agreed, Rossmore.

    Yep, that sounds like Trots, Bemused. In those days there would have still USSR-line types in the CP for them to oppose (and fair enough I guess).

    Ill give them this: when we were all getting the crap beaten out of us by Bjelke’s police in QLD in the 80s, they werent exactly back line types.

    Aside from that – I dunno, Trot groups seem to have an over-representation of people who swing wildly from one thing to another, every few years, with some exceptions, ending up in banking, or religion, or totally apolitical.

    By contrast, the independent left social democrat types I knew 20 years ago are all pretty much the same today.

  8. [Iโ€™m an ex-Trot too. Socialist Alternative.]
    Apparently hard core members of Socialist Alternative donate 20 – 30% of their incomes to the party!

  9. Is Mod Lib a she?

    The contents of Mod Libโ€™s genitalia have never been revealed in public.

    Now now, one’s genitals does not determine definitely whether they are a “he” or a “she”

  10. Abbott has now admitted that “turn/tow the boats back” won’t work.

    The massive increase in his Nauru Tent City is evidence of that.

    His endorsement of the company that will benefit with a multi-million dollar contract to supply the tents to pay for Morriscum to travel overseas is disgraceful and proves that Liberal policy is based on which multi-national companies will support the Liberals.

    Makes you wonder how much the “people smugglers” have contributed to the Liberals

  11. [The contents of Mod Libโ€™s genitalia have never been revealed in public.]

    Ummmm…perhaps you meant to write:

    “The NATURE of Mod Libโ€™s genitalia have never been revealed in public.”

    For which we should duly thankful. ๐Ÿ™

    It…shall we say…reads better to those of of your fellow travelers here with delicate sensibilities. ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/aussie-scientists-create-prawn-super-food/story-fn3dxiwe-1226688423365]

    Wow, 30-40% increase in growth rates???? Be interesting to see what that does to the aquaculture industry. CSIRO does some good work think I.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    This trio will put the wind up Credlin and Co. The digital “spoof” guy will have plenty of material to work with!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html
    The key questions on this tawdry issue is which party approached the other and for what purpose?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html
    The Nauruan trip has urned to sh!t for Tone and Morriscum. Karma.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nauruan-mp-warns-against-tents-20130730-2qxhp.html
    So Mother Milne thinks the boats will stop if 10000 are allowed to fly in via Indonesia every year? These 10000 will have been assessed as genuine refugees one would assume, so what would those who don’t qualify do?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/caring-greens-unveil-asylum-policy-to-increase-nations-refugee-intake-20130730-2qxf0.html
    Wow! The Guardian’s Katherine Murphy puts the boot in to Abbott and Morriscum for playing the voters as mugs. Cop that Libs!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/30/tony-abbott-nauru-tent-city
    Yes Mr Gordon, but who initiates the carping?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/manus-titfortat-only-helps-the-people-smugglers-20130730-2qwlf.html
    And the portents for Essendon are looking more and more ominous.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dons-told-drug-was-not-legal-20130730-2qxqq.html
    Now St Kilda joins the fray.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/saints-in-drug-probe-20130730-2qxha.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    MUST SEE! Alan Moir has a very frustrated Popeye.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    ANOTHER MUST SEE! David Rowe with Abbott’s and Morriscum’s tent city.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    A good one from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on Abboott’s proposed use of the armed forces.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

    BK is heading to Canberra today and reurning on Sunday. I plan to maintain the Dawn Patrol wile away.

  15. Given it’s revleft show-and-tell time, I may as well lay my cards on the table as well.

    Briefly a member of the Socialist Workers Party in the eighties during my interesting teenaged years. Was more a members of their youth group, Resistance, from around the ages 17-21 or so. Found their methods too authoritarian for my liking and their theory lacking.

    Expressed some interest in the Schachtman group Worker’s Liberty in the early 2000s. Too much of a cadre party for me.

    These days I have more of an involvement with the International Luxemburgist Tendency and on occasion have visited the good folk at the Melbourne Anarchist Collective.

    Overall, my politics can be described fairly accurately as libertarian socialist. It would be remiss of me not to mention The Isocracy Network (http://isocracy.org) which I initiated a couple of years back.

  16. Rossmore – Indeed, and Abbott sees himself very much as a disciple of Thatcher, even more than John Howard did, which is why several UK Thatcherites like Daniel Hannan MEP are strong supporters of Abbott. Rudd is basically an Australian Blair and Turnbull an Ozzie David Cameron. Gillard was more of a Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband

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