James J report that the latest Newspoll result of state voting intention in New South Wales is essentially unchanged on last time, with Labor’s primary vote mired at 28% (steady), the Coalition on 47% (down one) and the Greens on 12% (up two). The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 61-39. Barry O’Farrell is down three points on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 37%, with John Robertson steady on 28% and up one to 35% and O’Farrell leading 51-18 as preferred premier, compared with 52-20 last time.
Robertson should resign.
With ALP at 28% and Greens at 12% I would have expected a higher number for 2PP than only 39% for the ALP.
What are the preference flow rates for the Greens and ‘Others’ to the ALP normally in NSW state elections?
[What are the preference flow rates for the Greens and ‘Others’ to the ALP normally in NSW state elections?]
Well I guess with optional preferential voting it could be very bad.
Does Newspoll use optional preferential voting ?
My stored figures for calculating 2PP in NSW based on the last election result give 31% of Greens preferences to Labor and 18% to the Coalition, and 19% of “others” preferences to Labor and 23% to the Coalition, with the remainder exhausting. Punching those numbers in gives you 60.4-39.6. So yes, OPV and not some error of Newspoll’s explain why the 2PP is worse for Labor than you’d expect under full preferential.
lol , poor John Robertson
John Robertson’s polling figures are no worse than John Howard’s were at various points in his political career.
In the modern political-media complex, opinion polls have become a distorter, not a reporter, of democratic functions.
There appears to now be a sharp divergence between Labor’s state and federal 2PP vote in NSW. The state ALP vote is persistently low, whereas the federal has changed under Rudd. Surely this justifies some intervention?
Will Dastyari moving to Canberra risk a reduction in the momentum for reform? Such reforms need motivated individuals to cary them out, not just the process.
How can anything else be expected when such a venal group of careerist spivs are outed? It’ll take some time, and a fresh and energetic leader, to reverse their fortunes.
I can’t remember the last media item I saw featuring an NSW state Labor MP, do they actually exist.
I suspect we won’t know anything about whether Rudd’s return has made any impact on state voting intentions from Newspoll until their next sets of polls
Regardless, Robertson should resign
Greens only preferenced ALP in three or so seats at 2011 election causing an outburst by Albanese and an assertion by the then News journo now married to Ms Ellis to assert that Greens preferenced Hanson in the Upper House.
I think this poll confirms that NSW has the best run Liberal Government in the country.
Barry appears to have done a good job signing up to the NDIS and Gonski and has avoided trashing the state like CanDoSack has done in Queensland.
Some here say that Barry hasn’t done much but i think he has been the most active of the state Liberal governments and this poll shows it.
A poll after ICAC might be interesting. Three reports on Wednesday:
(a) McDonald’s relationship with an accused murderer and admitted killer and Tiffany the sex worker;
(b) Obeid Roozendaal re a car;
(c) Obeid, McDonald re a mine.