Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).
What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.
Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.
However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.
The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.
Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.
swamprat
if youre still here
i share your concern completely.
the rot is from prolonged rule of libs esp the insidiousness manipulation and non democratic influence of howard with republic etc and now abbott corrosion oppositionalism. then again america had bush – and i suspect you should be that country further down list of oz. i hope there is an imminent aporia from all that: an historical few weeks indeed, in which almost 2 decades of right wing dishonest national obscurantism can be stopped … the beginning of post howard period
dave
If you use the expression ‘open doors’ it just reveals total ignorance of the Refugee Convention and the immigration program which has resulted in the same overall intake for many years. Why do you wish to repeat ignorance?
dave
I was just expressing an opinion about the performance of the recent ALP Government.
I just don’t give a damn about who you think I might vote for.
i am comfortable about lot of green policies but not the state of their party or their political prowess. they could have on top of game by now – 15% with labor 40+ if 2009 ets went through … so much gained although am not sure they knw how to deal issues on immigration (they have no policy at all here). better they fade and reformed labor fills in place. problem is challenge for environment and social reform left for new voices.
jaundiced view@2252
Voters overwhelming totally reject your position on AS, including the ‘poll’ you posted.
The single issue they agree with mossison etc is on AS.
This issue is the best prospect of tory victory – which will in turn result in worse AS treatment.
swamprat@2253
And vise-versa.
everything you criticse Labor about will be far worse under abbott.
The only thing the recent refugee hoohaa establishes is that Australian have become a big pack of sooky whingers, with no idea how good they have it. I suppose you cant blame them, since they’re perpetually ill-advised by their leaders as to the scale of arrivals, which is a mere trickle and a complete non-issue on any comparative scale.
The ALP knows this but are cornered, some Libs know it too but are marginalised in their party – the majority of LNP are just about stupid enough to actually believe it.
Ill tell you what it is: when the nation retreats from acually providing services for its people, symbolic issues like borders attain new significance. Its pretending to give a shit about punters, the illusion of control and a state that cares – while robbing the same punterr blind through privatisation & deregulation. No wonder its bigger in the LNP.
lefty e
I normally agree with quite a bit of your posts.
Voters just don’t agree on the current AS ‘situation’.
They are entitled to their views, no matter how much wagging of fingers.
Oh – they WILL decide the issue. One way or another, even if mossisson become immigration minister.
Yes, I dare say many in politics would agree with my first para – but hell will freeze over before they are caught saying it in public.
I cannot deal with the asylum seeker issue. What i think, say or do will have no effect on this issue. I vote in an MP who is part of a government that i expect to deal with it for me.
My view is, just leave me alone, stfigu about it, and let the gov’t get on with it. I have had it with this issue.
Do you think I am alone in this, or has are a good chunk of voters just over it too?
The tide of the homeless
________All over the world there is a flood of refugees and the poor who are flooding into rich countries
In the USA there is the unceasing flow across the Border with Mexico…and across the Mediterrnean many flee from wars in Syria.Iraq and Libya and the disorder in Egypt
The whole Arab world is in flux and many seek a way out
Odd that many Australians don’t see that our problem is part of this historic movement of people
Recently the Pope visited the little island of Lampedusa between Sicily and Libya where tens of thiousands have found a gateway into Europe…and as many as 30.000 may have died in the waters near Sicily.. in recent years
He spoke of this great problem for humanity
jaundiced view
“Regarding the treatment of asylum seekers on arrival, the results can be broken down thus:
[22% – Allowed to live in the Australian community
12% – Detained in Australia, excluding children
17% – Detained in Australia, including children
4% – Sent to another country, allowed to live in community there
23% – Sent to another country and detained there
4% – Assessed for refugee status, no opinion on detention
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
4% – Other/don’t know”
Sooooo… something like 70-78% of Australians want asylum seekers locked up here (for an indeterminate period, maybe to be sent back), flown to another country and detained there (again, maybe forever) or have thieir boats turned back at sea.
How does that support your contention Australian voters are sympathetic to asylum seekers again?
They CLEARLY don’t give a shit, bro.
Watch Kevin Rudd’s AS announcement, whenever it is. He knows as well as every non-Green in Australia that if he tries to ‘lead’ on refugees in an ill-fated attempt to drag entirely unwilling voters to the left on this issue, he’ll face a loss that will make Julia Gillard’s polling look enticing.
For that reason and that reason alone he will seek to neutralise the issue in the only way available: a lurch to the right. I know you Rudd guys like to think he’s above politics or whatever but… wait sorry can’t type, laughing too hard.
Ahem.
The left has thoroughly lost the boat people issue. It’s not good enough to hide behind the UN, you have to get out there and win community support for refugees. Waving a Convention at them and saying “read this you fucking racist bogans” doesn’t quite cut it.
Boat people still don’t vote.
‘I know you Rudd guys like to think he’s above politics or whatever but… wait sorry can’t type, laughing too hard.’
Straw man alert! Absolute twaddle, your moniker is aptly chosen.
testing from England
testing from England
Where are the Dawn Patrons this morning? BK ?
Good evening, Mari? How are you coping with the heat wave?
g’day mari
The place seems to be deserted today.
Oh good, another living, breathing body. G’day Helen.
Dang, what was the name of that movie? Oh right, “invasion of the body snatchers”
Time to go and feed the chooks. I suppose.
There’s no one over at the other place, either, Spider – and not much happening on Twitter. I’ve exceeded my limit on the Sydney Morning Herald, and there’s no way I’m giving Fairfax any money, given the way they’ve behaved. I’ll have to read a book. Idownloaded Anna Goldsworthy’s Quarterly Essay, and that’s great.
Has anybody seen the Reachtel poll this morning on Sunrise?
Primary Vote: ALP 39% (up 1)
TPP: ALP 49%, LNP 51%
However with Turnbull as leader
TPP: ALP 42%, LNP 58%!!!
PPM: 65%, Rudd, 35%
mari
It has been a bit breezy in Adelaide so BK may have been called out or lost power.
[Storms buffet South Australia, leaving 4000 homes without power
THOUSANDS of homes are facing a night without power as strong winds continue to batter SA and bring down trees – including one at Salisbury that fell on eight cars.
More than 30,000 consumers have lost electricity since midnight after the wild weather brought down power lines or caused Stobie poles to sink into soggy ground.
]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/storms-buffet-south-australia-leaving-4000-homes-without-power/story-fni6uo1m-1226680826569
Thanks, Benji.
Hockey was basically dismissing the poll results regarding Turnbull as made up. Really struggling with reality.
Thanks, Poroti. I hope BK’s all right. He provides us with a much- appreciated service each morning. Like most things in life, you value it most when it’s not there.
Poor Joe! It must be scary watching victory perhaps slip away, when they’ve been so sure of themselves for so long.
They deserve to lose. Have we ever had a lazier Opposition? Stunts and dirty tricks, but no policies.
Ok, chooks are fed. Helen, I went considerably lowbrow from you, I downloaded a movie, “InAPPropriate Comedy”, and one early character is Flirty Harry, who uses the line, ‘Go ahead, make me gay’
I think it’s all downhill from here.
Good morning, Dawn Patrol
Looks like too many stayed up into the early dawn for the cricket. Great to have Andy Bull back on the Guardian blog!
G’day, Mari.
[It has been a bit breezy in Adelaide so BK may have been called out or lost power.]
He did post yesterday that the power had gone off. Now with more power outages, he is very probably put on call.
Damn, as if the people of Adelaide don’t suffer enough, what with prissy Pyne and all.
Hi Helen Sykes, Spider and Poroti, glad someone is around I was wondering if the Coalition had won and shut down any progressive sites they could find 😀
Second night re storms in Adelaide plus no Crikey Whitey either hope they are OK
Over here 30c today here in the Midlands, spent most of the day on the trains coming down from Edinburgh
Morning all. Benji, fascinating poll with the Turnbull factor included, though 58-42 looks unrealistically high. Maybe 56-44 would have been better; then Hockey couldn’t just dismiss it as ridiculous. I remain perplexed that Nielsen did not ask the question last week.
I have my breakfast outdoors and four days in a row magpies have insisted that I share it with them. They sing up such a racket that I can’t hear the radio until I cave in.
Morning all. Tired and slow to wake tis morning. Stupid Tour de France. Hello Mari 🙂
The ABC coverage of the Indonesian decision on Visas following a request from Rudd is definitely positive, and should help during the current Newspoll period. It shows Rudd leading, and being treated as a leader by our neighbours.
[Indonesia has agreed to a request from Kevin Rudd to make it harder for people from Iran to enter the country in order to travel to Australia by boat.
Indonesian justice minister Amir Syamsuddin has signed a letter – in effect a ministerial decree – that will stop Iranians being able to obtain a visa on arrival when they fly to Indonesia.
The move could slow the flow of people on their way to seeking asylum in Australia.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-18/indonesia-to-change-visa-requirements-for-iranians/4829434
I agree this does show a populist shift to the right by Rudd, though in this particular instance I do not object. As per wednesday night’s discussion, Iran is not a war zone, and not internally dangerous to most of its people. Some critics of the regime need protection, but that is all.
I see Labor has taken my advice and found a good Chinese-Australian candidate, Jason Yat-sen Li, for Bennelong. That will give the Libs something to think about.
http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yatsen-li-answers-labors-11th-hour-callup-20130718-2q7b1.html
In BKs absence I am sure he would have linked this one about a NSW priest in the witness box over why a paedophile colleague was not reported to police for years.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/priest-complains-of-poor-memory-of-abuse-20130718-2q79n.html
It is amazing how often people who are presumed innocent have bad memories in the witness box. You would think they would want to remember the evidence that would prove their innocence. Yet the details always seem to escape them.
Meanwhile, Rupert Murdoch is (as my parents’ generation would say) In more trouble that Flash Gordon!. He just doesn’t get it. The party’s over (Shirley Bassey: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB-N6i5VTHg). His dream of dominating every government in the world is crashing all around him. He’s not more powerful that the UK Parliament. No one has been since it beat Charles I’s armies & chopped off his head; then sacked his son James II & replaced him with William of Orange.
Rupert Murdoch admits error in criticism of police investigations
Media mogul writes to MP Keith Vaz to retract ‘incompetence’ remark but says inquiries have taken too long
Murdoch LIED. To a HoC Select Committee – one of Westminster’s committees in which failing to answer truthfully can attract significant penalties,
His pompous letter to Keith Vaz, chairman of the Commons home affairs select committee, is here Rupert Murdoch’s letter to Keith Vaz
mari
How are the “natives” handling the heat 🙂
WOW! 4th time lucky! Other 3 swallowed by the 8.00am whale.
Jason will be the first Asianish PM, very bright star
ReachTEL Better PM: Rudd 52.4% Abbott 47.6%
That’s looks far too close. Different polls vary wildly on this question or a similar one.
Labor with 39 primary but trailing 2pp, means LNP primary in mid 40s?
With the better PM figures they must remove the undecideds/dont knows and then do a %. Only possible way they get those exact figures.
Morning all.
[News Corporation chief Rupert Murdoch says he was “frustrated” and “overly emotional” when he was secretly recorded describing the police investigation into alleged wrongdoings at his publications as incompetent.
In a huge embarrassment for the media mogul, he was secretly taped by his own staff while talking to journalists at his Sun newspaper earlier this year.
The staff then leaked the tapes to a media website, in which Murdoch could be heard suggesting he was aware of some previous unethical behaviour by his staff.
The release prompted Murdoch to be recalled to face the Culture, Media and Sport Committee of the House of Commons for questioning.
Now, in a three-page letter to British MPs Keith Vaz and John Whittingdale, Murdoch has expressed regret over the taped comments.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-19/murdoch-letter-tells-of-27regret27-after-making-taped-comments/4829830
I hadn’t realised it was his own staff who’d taped him. Why would you secretly tape your chairperson unless you suspected him of unlawful or corrupt behaviour?
I’m more interested in 2PP and best to lead the Liberal party. Did Reachtel release those figures?
Psephos, that’s v good news about Jason for bennelong. Definitely quality, one for the future .
Good point, gloryconsequence. Newspoll and Nielsen don’t add up to 100 for that, though Mielsen is close (55-41).
ReachTEL LNP PV = 42%
Regarding Murdoch’s taped comments on the inquiry, I suppose you should not regard anything he says off the cuff as the gospel truth. He asks that only those remarks carefully thought out after conferring with his lawyers b considered.
He has the same kind of honesty as Tony Abbott.
OZPOL and SOCRATES good morning also to both of you and almost goodnight from me, as didn’t sleep well last night as had the train to catch to comedown here. Grat train and great fares on them(ie discount train sites) Edinburgh to Northampton (where I am now) then down to Somerset next week cost me 27 pound all up, then EasyJet back to Edinburgh 33pound so pretty good.
POROTI The natives are all in a state of shock (great headlines in The Times 412 dead from heat) I find it very pleasant .
Did anyone check the Golf today and see the weather in Scotland