BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  1. Crikey
    Are you still there, I went to pack as going down to England, to see friends and rellies. Amazing value these discount train booking sites. I also enjoy going on the trains, can pick forward window and quiet carriages so very happy.

    Looks good the Bludger Track at the moment, bit worried about all thr money LNP is supposed to

  2. The bog must have got excited at the first post, decided to post by itself??? Anyway I was finishing up with the money LNP is supposed to have and also the “Murdoch” factor

  3. Hi Mari

    If my memory serves me correct you mentioned the Isle of Mull the other day. Do you think this is worth a visit? We will be staying in Oban.

    Also the Isle of Skye?

    We are flying to Glasgow July next year as the start of a European holiday, finishing in Poland. In regard to the Isle of Skye we are thinking of driving up the road to Dornie at the start of the Isle. We understand this road is quite pretty but is it worth an extra day to actually visit the Isle?

  4. Gauss
    You are up early
    Yes it is a beautiful Island and if you are staying in Oban go to it. The Isle of Skye is lovely you go over the bridge at the Kyle of Lockaish( sorry spelling incorrect) Lucky the bridge used to be 15 pnd to go over but now free, used to be a ferry It is a shame you havn’t more time as the north of Scotland from Ullapool (which to me is the weak link and over rated)over to John O’Groats is great Only saving grace is you can over to The Orkneys from there which I love.
    Have you been to Warsaw before I find it a very depressing place, Budapest is lovely.The pick one for me is Prague If I can help at all please ask me as have been all over Europe and UK. Are you doing an organised tour or hopefully by yourselves?
    Can’t open the link you have provided

  5. Sorry my tablet changed the sentence for me John O’Groats is the weak link. Ullapool is lovely with all the gorse around. The heather this year is a month early which has surprised the locals

  6. Hi Mari

    Most appreciated re Scotland. As we have not booked our airfares time is not fixed yet. All we have booked are 2 cruises; a river cruise Paris to Prague and a Baltic Cruise on the Royal Princess, out of Germany. Otherwise we are driving or going by train.

    So the itinerary is Scotland, England, Paris/Normandy, River Cruise, Prague, Munich, Germany/Romantic Road/Fairy Tale Road, Hamburg (friends), Baltic Cruise, Berlin & Poland

    Take your comment about Warsaw. We were planning to spend the most time in Poland in Krakow and fly home from Warsaw.

    Pity about the cartoon which is quite funny unless you’re a Green supporter.

  7. Krakow is different it is very nice will you be going to Auswitch(sorry no spell check on this tablet) an amazing and sobering place I also like Munich(don’t know much about Hamburg an one night between flights, I have never been on the River cruises but hear they are lovely. Wish you could get to witzland and Austria two of my favourite places. Zermatt at end of Glacier Express (a wonderful train trip) and the Matterhorn, which we woke up to with the sun shining on it from our bed in the Zimmer, next day it was snowing(not July in April) and wouldn’t even have know it was there so lucky. Also saw the Ieger was across from it,little avalanches all the time. bought the Rail Pass in Australia, much cheaper and went first class to get benefit for Glacier and Panorama trains
    Anyway enough of my bad spelling, next have a look at Sweden Finland and Norway do the Heurtegerten ferry from Bergen to Kirkenes near Russian border, plus the Flam Railway once again April cheaper and you will see the Northern lights as 5 days above the A/ Circle on the Ferry

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers (and mari!)
    The article itself belies the lead –
    “Ducks aligned for August poll
    Comment: Stage is set after Kevin Rudd makes Tony Abbott an unbackable favourite”
    Hardly surprising. And the increasingly credulous and gullible are being played by right wing politics.
    Mark Kenny reckons Rudd has pulled the rug out from under Abbott on CC policy and Abbott nothing left in the centre on the issue.
    Whack! Daniel Flitton skewers Mesma, Abbott and Morriscum (and, by association, The Australian) over not listening to what Indonesia is actually saying.
    Bob Carr follows through by branding the Opposition as “bovver boys”.
    Hmm. Looks like James Hird might be in a spot of bother. And is Dimitriou’s teflon coating a bit compromised?
    Alan Moir has some guidelines for cricket umpires.
    David Pope on Rudd’s CC policy collateral damage.
    David Rowe introduces “Abbott in Wonderland”.
    Ron Tandberg ridicules Abbott’s Direct Action Plan.

  9. Yes we will visit Auschwitz; very sobering. Also Schindler factory & Jewish quarter. Thanks for the above. Some we have done like the Flam railway. This will be our 4th trip to Europe and hopefully not our last.

    I’m a disciple of Albert Einstein so looking forward to Prague & Berlin. We’ve been through Switzerland a couple of times but plan to do it next time in more detail. Bern was where albert worked as a mere patent clerk when he wrote those ground breaking, world changing, papers in 1905.

    Anyway I must get some sleep. Being nice talking with you and thanks once again for the advice.

  10. And from the Land of the Free –

    Here’s the weekly round up of “upchuckables”.
    Stevie Wonder pushes back on Florida.
    Some cartoons on Zimmerman-style safety. the third one is extremely powerful.
    John Oliver (Jon Stewart stand in) names Florida as “Worst State” after the Zimmerman verdict.
    Oh dear! Not a mini-Watergate for Michelle Bachmann!
    What a shocking democratic process!
    Rachael Maddow takes FoxNews apart over the Zimmerman trial and its consequences.
    And of course Idiot Pat Robertson weighs in to support Zimmerman.

  11. Gauss
    Glad you are visiting Auschwitz everybody should be made to go there especially the denialists. We went there on a cold and foggy day most graphic
    Let me know anything else can help with South America?

  12. [Coalition to unveil $6.7b Bruce Hwy plan ]

    Shame its over 10 years and actually amounts to a cut in funding proposed by the ALP. Plus I doubt Newman will fund a Federal road Warren, sloppy as usual.

  13. Chris Kenny in yesterday’s Australian.

    So yesterday in an interview with SkyNews, Mr Natalegawa made clear that Australia had every right to adopt its own “national” initiatives and said he was willing to discuss its turn back policy. He resisted many invitations to criticise that policy. In a debate where every possible nuance or sidestep has been over-interpreted and whipped up by the government and the media to suggest turn backs could create problems with Indonesia, this was very clear and diplomatic signal that Indonesia knew about the opposition plans and was relaxed about them. It was as far as they could ever go without openly inviting turn backs – which, as I have explained, would never occur.

    Seeing the political implications of this – the sudden removal of Labor’s excuse not to turn back boats – Mr Carr organised the late night interview. According to reports, Mr Carr’s office rang Channel 10 to offer the joint interview. What a sad, reactive and cheap way to deal with a party political issue. What disregard it showed for one of our most important relationships.

    But it won’t work. Reality can’t be spun away. The dishonest echoing of Labor spin by the love media doesn’t even fool the electorate – never does – and won’t fool the Indonesians. The proof is there for all to see; we know boats were turned back before and the Indonesians did not publicly object; while the bilateral relationship deepened to an unprecedented level. Turning boats back is a difficult task but it can be done and can be managed. And as we have heard from a succession of military experts, it can be very effective.

  14. Morning all. If Labor wants a differentiating issue in Melbourne, they could do worse than promise to fund the central rail tunnel rather than the road one. The rail tunnel is badly needed, while the road one is asking for trouble after the recent failure of the Brisbane and Sydney road tunnels. You have to wonder what vested interests are urging the Vic Libs to push it forward. My money would be on developers and car park operators.
    [The Napthine government left out crucial information about the east-west link when it submitted its business case to Infrastructure Australia last month, prompting the federal authority to seek more details.
    The lack of detail about the $6 billion to $8 billion toll road’s economic credentials risks stymying the project if the federal Labor government is re-elected.]

    There is no publically available evidence this project makes economic sense. See many posts about it on the parallel Crikey Urbanist blog.

  15. gauss you need a freaking F-111 dropped on your head. the oz will write whatever it fucking wants to write, without any adherence to facts or truth.
    indonesia won’t tell the oz what to write will it.
    here’s Briefly from yesterday you ignorant sellout.

    “I am so sick of these f-wits….these deliberately obtuse numbskulls who think they are so astute, so smart-arse-clever, and yet are betraying the better interests of the entire country. I loathe them. I just loathe them through and through for both their betrayal and their taste in ignorance.”

    Yours taste in ignorance Gauss, you F/Wit.

  16. Good Morning, Dawn Patrol.
    G’day Mari, Gauss.

    Gauss, these are a few fascinating, less well imo “Special: must see” places in West Scotland.

    If you’re heading up Scotland’s West Coast- a definite YES to Skye. If to Ullapool, I recommend a deep breath, then brave Bealach na Bà:

    [historic pass through the mountains of the Applecross peninsula, in Wester Ross in the Scottish Highlands—and the name of a famous twisting, single-track mountain road through the pass and mountains.

    The road is one of few in the Scottish Highlands that is engineered similarly to roads through the great mountain passes in the Alps, with very tight hairpin bends that switch back and forth up the hillside and gradients that approach 20%. It boasts the greatest ascent of any road climb in the UK, rising from sea level at Applecross to 626 metres (2,054 ft), and is the third highest road in Scotland.]

    In 1982, around Stormferry (No Ferry) there was a notice board of “Do Nots” (eg tow caravans) for what was a very hairy road; but we did it in foul winter weather – howling gale, snow flurries, sleet, rain, with intermittent cloud-breaks; hence … Marvellous views over Skye & the Western Isles! A place where I chid myself for not knowing more about geology. Western Scotland IS geology rampant!

    En route to Ullapool, don’t miss magnificent Corrieshalloch Gorge and the Falls of Measach – a botanical Mesolithic remnant, according to the sign board … but that was 1982 & new science may have changed that classification.

    [Corrieshalloch Gorge is on the A835 at Braemore, 12m miles east of Ullapool, on the Ullapool to Inverness Road. When you drive along the road dont forget your camera as the trees and views are spectacular in themselves. Suddenly on this twisting road the parking area for the gorge appears, and more often than not is quite busy with tourists.
    ADMISSION PRICES: £1 (honesty box)

    This breathtaking mile-long gorge, is one of the finest examples in Britain of a box canyon, its 61 m (200 ft) deep. The river plunges 46 m (150 ft) over the Falls of Measach. There is a suspension bridge a little way downstream from the falls this was built by John Fowler (1817-98), he was also a joint designer of the Forth Railway Bridge.]

    Try, at an i place for a map of Scotland with all the “must/should see” sites marked.

    Also fascinating Glen Roy and its “Parallel Roads” (Google “Images for Scotland “parallel roads”)

    [Glen Roy in the Lochaber area of the Highlands of Scotland is a National Nature Reserve and is noted for the geological puzzle of the three roads (“Parallel Roads”). The “Parallel Roads” of Glen Roy are lake terraces that formed along the shorelines of an ancient ice-dammed lake. The lake existed during a brief period (some 900-1,100 years in duration) of climatic deterioration, during a much longer period of deglaciation, subsequent to the last main ice age (The Devensian). From a distance they resemble man-made roads running along the side of the Glen, hence the name.]

  17. And, Gauss, when you visit Auschwitz, expect to be really shaken by it. And yes, that ash really is … BTW, “being really shaken by …” is very much what so much of East of the German Border in a long line to the south, inc Warsaw & the monument to the Uprising, vast near-empty grainfields, grim statistics 1914-45 etc really do to you.

  18. Chris Kenny in yesterday’s Australian.

    Really disgraceful misrepresentation, even by Murdoch (& Santamaria’s) standards!

    The Oz must be really rattled to spin this with no reference whatsoever to International Law, and the deceitful omission of Mr Natalegawa’s “BUT” sentence of what the Indonesian Government was not prepared to tolerate – towing back the boat into Indonesian waters

  19. [The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional]

    If those numbers add to whatever swing occurs independently (let’s say +/- 5%), then the regional sophomore surge is very large indeed. Or have I misunderstood it?

  20. Morning All

    Listened to Joe on RN Breakfast with Fran – he is sounding more desperate by the minute. I can’t believe they are trying to run the line that an ETS is a tax. Add to that he said he was “a believer in markets” and then went on to argue against joining one.

    I look forward to Malcolm’s next interview – what line will he take???

    In saying that, the question has to be asked if it’s really worth making the cuts they are just to bring the ETS forward by 12 months? I’d say no.

    From what they are saying it’s looking like Labor will do another “lurch to the right” on asylum seekers later this week – I hope I’m wrong but it seems obvious.

    Apparently Surf Life Saving Clubs have been given until 5pm today to apply for funding for shovel ready projects. Why the rush if the Kevin isn’t planning to visit the GG very shortly???

  21. OPT
    [If you’re heading up Scotland’s West Coast- a definite YES to Skye. If to Ullapool, I recommend a deep breath, then brave Bealach na Bà: ]

    and if you do go up to the top from Applecross near dusk and decide to try and do a quick three point turn and head back down before the light goes, well lets just say pick a spot carefully as it is a very thin road and it is very boggy just off the tarmac…

  22. Hmmm, access to the leader in exchange for favourable spruiking of the party’s policies.

    Rejected by the National Secretary, who says he’s never seen the proposed advertising, also rejected by the PMO, and contains a ‘do you know more?’ plea from the journalist at the end of the article, suggesting there is more than what has been reported.

    It wouldn’t be Liberal pranksters trying to tarnish the govt by any chance by faking Labor-branded documents in an effort to smear the federal leader, would it?

  23. [Coalition to unveil $6.7b Bruce Hwy plan

    Shame its over 10 years and actually amounts to a cut in funding proposed by the ALP. Plus I doubt Newman will fund a Federal road Warren, sloppy as usual.]

    Forgetting (conveniently) Infrastructure Australia has already done the planning, and completed several of the “black spot” by passes/ reconstructions. Remember that QT during the last sitting when TRuzzzz asked a question about when Cooroy/Pomona (in his area) would be fixed – allowing ?Albo (I think) to point out that not only was it finished, the unveiling ceremony had been held – and Truzzz, though invited, didn’t attend! Reduced the HoR’s Gov Benches to howls of laughter!

    If you’re a QLDer, you know
    (a) the only plan is an attempt to stem the haemorrhage of LNP votes to Rudd, Katter & Palmer
    (b) there’s a snowdrop’s in hell it will happen,
    (c) if Abbott wins, & stays true to his “Son of Howard” attitudes, there’s as much chance of his “plan” will go beyond that as there is that I’ll dance Swan Lake for the Kirov Ballet next week!

    Howard promised to continue all the Keating Government’s road building; and did next to none of it.

    * He didn’t complete the Hume H’way duplication;
    * did almost nothing on “killer” stretches of the Pacific H’way;
    * didn’t so much as turn the first sod on the Toowoomba Range duplication he’d promised for 4 consecutive elections;
    *did sweet FA on Ipswich Rd, after promising it for at least 2 elections &
    * FA on the Bruce (ditto)

    and that’s merely a list of the Howard “plans”/ election promises re roads, which affected OH & me, who drove those roads frequently!

  24. ABC24’s Joe O’Brien just put it to Mark Butler that moving to an ETS one year ahead of schedule presents a sovereign risk.


  25. [Better get to work, have a great day All

    p.s. GO Queensland – 8 in a row!!!!]

    Hear hear but if they could leave the scoring until the second half I have trouble getting home from work in Perth in time for the kick off.

  26. Now I’ve seen it all. Alan Jones (with a straight face) lamenting the Australian Academy of Science findings that many are confused by basic science!

    No questions put to him about his own appalling efforts to confuse and scare people on AGW. There’s part of the problem, right there.

  27. Recently, a rare migrant Spine-tailed Swift (aka White-throated Needletail) was seen off the west coast of the UK. Twitchers flocked to see this very rare sight.

    The following day the crowd gathered to see it again. Swifts spend most of their time in flight, hawking for insects.

    On this second day as the twitchers watched and recorded the rare sighting, the swift flew into the blades of a wind turbine. The body was recovered. (Pers. comm.)

  28. I see that Chris Kenny is prepared to lie by ommission about what the Opposition has been doing in relation to Indonesia.

    He is nothing more than a party political journalist who lacks integrity. He writes for a newspaper that has foregoes integrity and honesty for its owner. The owner is prepared to lose millions on it in order to ensure that readers get the world framed according to Murdoch.

    It says something for Gauss that this is the newspaper he most often cites as his authority for one or other of his views.

    I particularly appreciated Kenny’s line that Labor is to be condemned because it is treating our relations with Indonesia in a party political manner.

    Kenny is right, of course, and it is why Rudd is not fit to be prime minister. But Kenny leaves out the other bit: the Opposition has been all over Indonesia in a party political manner. This means that Abbott is not fit to be prime minister either.

    The two rotten apples continue to spread their rot into the Australian body politic.

    The really absurd thing is that people like Gauss, who is obviously intgelligent, can see it for Rudd but not for Abbott.

    BTW, ‘The Australian’ is also notorious for the anti-science way in which it treats climate science, and must count as one of its editorial successes the fact that 66% of Liberal supporters believe that 97% of the world’s climate scientists are wrong.

  29. now I am no expert but non of the below sounds like aust
    doe je Obrien know what the SLOGAN MEANS

    how could I do a tweet.


    More info – Source –

    Sovereign Risk Definition | Investopedia‎

    Definition of ‘Sovereign Risk’. The risk that a foreign central bank will alter its foreign-exchange regulations thereby significantly reducing or completely nulling …

    What is sovereign risk? definition and meaning‎

    Definition of sovereign risk: Probability that the government of a country (or an agency backed by the government) will refuse to comply with the terms

  30. I note Bludgertrack has tightened this week in favor of the Coalition. I presume this can largely be attributed to Morgan?

  31. lizzie

    Glug. That will bring the Liberal-based wind farm destroyers out in their thousands.

    BTW, Spine-tailed Swifts are found in Australia as well. They might be rare (extinct) in England but they are not elsewhere.

  32. WWP

    ‘Hear hear but if they could leave the scoring until the second half I have trouble getting home from work in Perth in time for the kick off.’

    I don’t care much for League or for Queensland in the Origin series, so I would be quite happy if they left all their scoring until after full time.

  33. [ABC24′s Joe O’Brien just put it to Mark Butler that moving to an ETS one year ahead of schedule presents a sovereign risk.]

    (cue strident US accent) O*M*Gaaaard! How can anyone who’s a commentator/ interviewer on the National News channel be so confoundedly DUMB! Has he any idea what sovereign risk means?

    Does he know anything about the ways in which government & private “Money Bins” (like superannuation & Carbon Credit stashes) contribute to & underpin Sovereign Wealth, inc Australia’s Sovereign Wealth?

    Or is he simply obeying Murdoch’s & Scott’s dicta and mouthing outright lies as if they were actually true?

    Why does the Liberal Party treat its supporters as if they’re morons who have trouble reading a Murdoch Tabloid?

    And what’s so inherently wrong with today’s Liberal Party that it’s so terrified of the truth – any truth, in any possible situation?

  34. confessions

    ‘It wouldn’t be Liberal pranksters trying to tarnish the govt by any chance by faking Labor-branded documents in an effort to smear the federal leader, would it?’

    That would be deliberate attempts to destroy democracy in Australia. It is a crime and should be referred to the AFP.
    It is also cynical, dishonest, lacking in integrity and lacking in respect for others. This sort of rot starts at the top – with Rudd and with Abbott.

    Don’t give these rotten apples legitimacy: vote informal.

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