BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 55
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  2. outsider it was noted by one poster
    the other had difference of 7 and other figures in that area but ess, was 2.

    i used to do their poll it arrived with questions about products with politics thrown in here and there so boring and time consuming,

  6. According to Abbott, Hunt, Hockey and Co., an Emissions Trading Scheme is actually a tax. Yes folks, you heard correctly. A tax.

    Now, either they have very short memories or they are hoping everyone else has very short memories.

    They went to the 2007 election with a policy of introducing an ETS themselves. Or, using the fighting language of Tony Abbott & Co, a policy of introducing a Great Big New Tax.

    Look, I know they have always been light on policy, but I thought this mob were supposed to be tactical geniuses when it comes to the politics of any issue.

    Just. L.O.L. 😀

  7. Boerwar

    Yes, the swift was a rare sight for UK. Yes, they are found in the eastern third of Oz, but are variable in their distribution.

    I have also been told that there are records of thousands(?) of birds killed by wind turbines, but the report was banned from publication in UK because of the effect on the industry.

    Confessions
    This was told to my OH by someone doing a study of spine-tailed swifts. He can be believed.

  8. My Say because Bludgertrack averages different polls, it is movement in one of those polls that affects the week on week average. From memory Essential has resolutely stayed at 52/48 to the Coalition so it doesn’t affect William’s average movement this week. The only “mover” I can recall this week was Morgan. In a sense Morgan and Essential cancel each other, putting to one side the weighting in William’s methodology. I think we can say it’s a dead heat at the moment in 2PP with Labor slightly on seats ahead because of the Rudd effect on Queensland.

  9. to vote informal , is a cop out by any one who
    does

    it s likeunion members voting against a pay rise

    but getting in their pay packet/

    ===============================================

    it very bad advice in my opinion and not a good example to

    first time voters

    people who say vote informal should like very deeply about our democracy, or move to a country where there is no vote at all

  10. Chinda/Danny

    What I am Lolling about is that i thought the coalition had workshopped a return to Rudd.
    If they were so ready, why are they all at sea now

  11. Gods have aligned. Climbing Harbour Bridge with a German exchange student on an impeccable Sydney day.

    Who would want to live anywhere else?

  12. thank u outsider

    just loved see out name up their

    hope it back soon,

    we have to keep the mongrels out.

    and other words i would not use.

  15. [ABC24′s Joe O’Brien just put it to Mark Butler that moving to an ETS one year ahead of schedule presents a sovereign risk.]
    I agree Joe O’Brien does a great impersonation of a moron. Assuming he was too dumb to come up with this idiocy himself, the question is, who told him to ask the question?

    These are other similar examples of sovereign risk:

    “What if Australia becomes a republic, won’t that present a soverign risk, since the Queen will no longer guarantee our currency?”

    “What if there is no longer a King of the Moomba festival? Won’t that be a sovereign risk?”

    “What if Wally Lewis dies, won’t that be a sovereign risk for Queensland football?”

    At least it shows that ABC24 does not discriminate on grounds of intelligence when choosing reporters.

  17. and to add to that, i think also some in the media thought the alp, would not change either, they thought they could rumour monger up to the election .

    seems like the best gotcha JG ever gave.

  18. Jones and Hockey seem to have an obsession with drowning their political opponents:

    [SHADOW treasurer Joe Hockey has repeated a mock claim that he should have let Kevin Rudd drown during their 2006 trip to the Kokoda track.

    Speaking on Wednesday morning, Mr Hockey said he shouldn’t have come to Mr Rudd’s aid when the pair walked the famous track together seven years ago.

    “I should have let him drown, that’s right, I should have let him,” Mr Hockey quipped to Macquarie Radio’s Alan Jones.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/hockey-repeats-mock-rudd-drowning-claim/story-e6frfku9-1226680530148#ixzz2ZFf0ifVJ

  20. I suspect the forces of darkness have felt the cold winds of looming election defeat blowing. They are regrouping, and about to launch the mother of all negative campaigns.

    And working on Plan B of promoting a new leader.

  21. [What I am Lolling about is that i thought the coalition had workshopped a return to Rudd.
    If they were so ready, why are they all at sea now]

    victoria:

    Personally I think Gillard’s resignation from parliament has left them without the planned attacks on ongoing Labor tensions and disunity that they would’ve milked as a result of a leadership change had Gillard stayed on.

  22. There were a few comments from Age readers today making the connection between Tony’s “invisible substance” and the lack of coalition policies, though not as nicely put as sustainable future did yesterday.

  23. Odd concept that an independent tribunal can be ordered to rage something into account.

    In effect there is additional material from the Dept which the RRT can consider.

    Bob Carr of course would like to think that he can order courts atound

  24. Confessions

    Therein lies the clue that the ALP knew it was facing an electoral wipeout, if it did not take the action it did.
    JG and ofhers took this course to save its hide

  25. Shellbell: I am also in the company of an exchange student from Germany at the moment 😀

    Victoria: I think at one point they might have thought a change back to Rudd was about to happen (probably around the February/March mark), but I think once Labor appeared to lock in behind Gillard then that was that.

    Their tactic from then on has clearly been to damage Gillard as much as possible – without thinking or caring about what that does to Abbott’s own metrics – and then Bradbury into the election without having to talk policy. And once they were in government (preferably with a hefty majority) only then wheel out all the things they always intended to do but had been careful to avoid talking about (Workchoices II, increasing the GST etc).

    Beyond that, I’m not even sure they had a specific strategy, which is why they have been caught so flat-footed. They’ve gone from having no policies but having the media on ise, and surviving having an unpopular leader because the person leading the other team – the policy-heavy team – was just as unpopular.

    Now they are stuck with no policies, an unpopular leader and a media asking too many awkward policy questions and, on top of that, are up against a policy-heavy team with a popular leader.

    In short, unless the media turn feral again – and it’s 24/7 feral – there is only one way this is going to end as long as Abbott’s at the helm. They know this too, and I suspect there are a lot of ReTurnbull conversations happening behind closed doors as we speak.

  26. Good morning Bludgers.
    I was clearing up some reading set by others and picked up a link from Jack the Insider the other day to this article.
    Sandra Willis pulls out of Lalor preselection, lashing ‘tainted process’

    I had been wondering why Sandra Willis had withdrawn as she looked a good candidate.
    [Sandra Willis, whose father Ralph Willis was Paul Keating’s treasurer, has cleared the path for Ms Gillard’s candidate – former school principal Joanne Ryan – to win the seat.

    But on the way out, Ms Willis took a swipe at the way Labor’s preselection process had been conducted.

    “I have withdrawn because ineligible candidates and non-financial members of the ALP have been given special dispensation to stand for preselection and a truncated rank-and-file process has been put in place,” she said.

    “Born and bred in Melbourne’s western suburbs, I am a passionate advocate for the area and believe I could have made a difference.

    “It is my fervent belief that the Australian Labor Party will continue to be the party that best represents the interests of the constituents of Lalor and the Australian people.”]
    I don’t know Sandra Willis, but what she said aligns with my thoughts on the matter.

  29. Chinda/Danny

    I should add fhat I am not sure if Turnbull has got many fans in the party. After all, he got sucked into Grechgate, ably assisted by his enemies within the coalition

  32. From the SMH article by Daniel Flitton that BK linked to earlier:

    [Natalegawa is no fool, and knows the Australian media well. He used to deliver copies of The Age and Sydney Morning Herald around Canberra while studying for his doctorate.]

    The Foreign Minister is one of many of the “elite” in Indonesia who were educated in Australia and know this country well. He would be fully aware of the current political situation here.

  33. WA Liberal Government is going to increase charges to people who have installed solar panels.

    They are going to charge them for something the Govt don’t provide.

  35. Australia’s holier-than-thou complacency and rank hypocrisy sees us dragging a friendly nation through the international court.

    Australia shoots dead millions of kangaroos a year. These animals are then slaughtered and sold as pet and/or human food. Done properly, I have no concern about this.

    Japan kills a few hundred whales a year and Australia drags Japan through interntional courts.

    This is irrational. The Japanese quite rightly see it as irrational and they quite rightly view Australia’s behaviour as unfriendly.

    To believe that this will make no difference to relations between Japan and Australia is absurd.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/16/australian-politics-australia

  36. bruce hawker ‏@brucehawker2010 4m
    Abbott concedes Labor Govt has done more for Bruce Hwy than any other govt. Most of his dollars to come at the end of a ten year period.

  37. AmyArtz ‏@artz_amy 9m
    How cocky are the LNP?! Abbott’s media conference & they are already saying that Truss is the next Federal Infrastructure Minister! #HELP

  38. bemused
    [Bore’s advice is despicable.]

    Hardly despicable. I don’t get why BW doesn’t seem to mind getting PM Abbott, but that’s for BW to decide. An informal vote or an abstention is a completely reasonable expression of your dissatisfaction with either the process or the candidates on offer, if that is how you feel. To take it a step further, that is why we should have voluntary voting. An informal vote should be thought of as one of your voting options, equal to a formal vote.

  39. So, voting for a person who has a demonstrated track record of being dishonest, who entirely lacks integrity, who treats others with contempt, who abuses underlings, who shows no personal or party loyalty, who puts his own interests in front of that of the nation, and who a demonstrated lack of committment to values, principles and policies is not despicable?

    No? Well then, we are well into the land of four legs good, two legs bad.

  40. Listen Bore if you are wildly flinging these accusations around you could at least come up with some evidence that doesn’t amount to gossip.

    That’s if you have any integrity.

  41. Triton

    ‘I don’t get why BW doesn’t seem to mind getting PM Abbott’

    I have nothing but contempt for Abbott. He has a demonstrated track record of being dishonest; he entirely lacks integrity, he treats others with contempt;he abuses people; he puts his own interests in front of that of the nation, and he has a demonstrated lack of committment to values, principles and policies.

    Voting for Abbott or Rudd would be to continue to support the moral rot at the top of Labor and Liberal Parties.

  42. July 17 2007

    Howard said: “Being among the first movers on carbon trading in this region will bring new opportunities and we intend to grasp them. The Government will examine how to ensure that Australia becomes a carbon trading hub in the Asia-Pacific region. Of course, an emissions trading scheme is only one part of a comprehensive long-term climate change policy framework. There is no magic green bullet. Low-carbon technologies remain the key to an effective response that minimises the costs of limiting emissions.” – See more at: http://australianpolitics.com/2007/07/17/howard-commits-to-emissions-trading-scheme.html#sthash.WUgIUhgB.dpuf

  46. For the election date rumour people and gamblers:

    [CLIMATE Change Minister Mark Butler says draft laws to dump the carbon tax and fast-track a carbon emissions trading scheme will be ready before the election and hinted parliament might be recalled.

    Mr Butler said draft legislation for the changes would be ready ahead of the election.

    “In the event that parliament were to resume before the election, I could take draft legislation to the parliament,” he said.

    “It may well be that legislation would be rejected by either house, in which case we would take it to the election seeking a mandate from the people.”]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/ets-draft-laws-to-be-ready-before-election/story-e6frfku9-1226680491384#ixzz2ZFxOsCSB

  48. triton@88

    bemused

    Bore’s advice is despicable.


    Hardly despicable. I don’t get why BW doesn’t seem to mind getting PM Abbott, but that’s for BW to decide. An informal vote or an abstention is a completely reasonable expression of your dissatisfaction with either the process or the candidates on offer, if that is how you feel. To take it a step further, that is why we should have voluntary voting. An informal vote should be thought of as one of your voting options, equal to a formal vote.

    Voluntary voting and registration opens the potential for voter suppression and other tactics used in the US.

    Voting is an obligation of citizenship and a fairly minimal one at that.

    If you are unhappy with the choice offered then run as a candidate yourself or pursue your protest through other channels.

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