James J relates that Newspoll’s April-June quarter result of state voting intention in South Australia has the Liberals’ two-party lead up from 54-46 to 56-44, from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 44% for the Liberals (plus 1% for the Nationals) and 10% for the Greens. Jay Weatherill is up a point on both approval and disapproval to 47% and 35%, while Steven Marshall is up four to 41% and up one to 20%. Weatherill’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 42-27 to 41-30.
UPDATE: Tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Simple entropy really. The government will have been in power for 12 years next year. People start being itchy for a new direction and the incompetence of Olsen’s lot (some of whom are still on the Lib front bench) is an ancient memory.
GhostWhoVotes
107
James J
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink
105: Sorry, to Liberal
108
briefly
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink
[Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech
Great speech, Psephos. Very well done and beautifully observed!!
109
William Bowe
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink
New thread.
110
crikey whitey
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink
Zoidlord. Thanks.
Is this really a new thread?
I am going back.
Nicole for Boothby!
[Is this really a new thread?]
It’s the SA State Newspoll thread. The 50-50 Nielsen thread is still the federal politics thread.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Newspoll SA State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (-2) LIB 56 (+2) #saparli #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 32 (-1) LIB 44 (+1) GRN 10 (0) #saparli #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll SA Weatherill ALP: Approve 47 (+1) Disapprove 35 (+1) #saparli #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Newspoll SA Marshall LIB: Approve 41 (+4) Disapprove 20 (+1) #saparli #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll SA Preferred Premier: Weatherill ALP 41 (-1) Marshall LIB 30 (+3) #saparli #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 40s
The #Newspoll SA tables: http://bit.ly/13b4RRc #saparli #auspol
So the punters can distinguish state and local.
[So the punters can distinguish state and local.]
As I explained in the other thread, when there isn’t anger, they can.
If the feeling is that it’s time for something new, then it won’t have too much of an effect on the party’s standing at the other level of government.
However, if the mood is a “baseball bat” one, then the party’s name is poisonous on all levels until the offending factor has become ancient history.
As Carey said, to be expected.
However, it is clear Weatherill has been politically dumbstruck by the Education Department sex abuse scandal(s) which with a irritatingly persistent and bold whistleblower, various investigations and recriminations occurring, it is an issue that shows no sign of abating.
The imminent potential loss of Holden which he declared last year ‘saved’ is another migraine even though credit must be given to the local Liberals who handed Labor a free kick by declaring that they towed the Federal Party line on abolishing subsidies for Holden.
On top of this, local Mayor Glenn Docherty who is also a Liberal candidate in a Lib must win marginal some distance away reiterated this policy ensuring he is as popular in his own Council area as a dose of clap. The Libs are starting to wonder about him…about time.
The 6 of the 56% of the votes are no good if they are in safe Lib or Labor seats and the Libs must ensure they concentrate their efforts where is counts.
Considering Labor lost the 2pp vote in 2010, this would be something around a 4.4% swing. If it was uniform, Labor would lose 7 or 8 seats (ie: Liberal majority), but 2010 is a great example of a non-uniform swing. What’s the odds of Labor pulling that trick twice?
Bird of paradox
It’s possible that, after a well targeted and good campaign, Labor could limit the damage and the Libs get in on a razor thin seat margin but the general mood is it’s time for change. Also, the 2PP polling would need to be showing 52% or less towards the Libs, not between 54 and 56, as current polling tends to show for that kind of trick to work.
Unless something happens to piss the voters right off or make Weatherill look completely dodgy (that whole school sex abuse scandal could possibly shape that way), It will be a comfortable but not massive win to the Libs (a lot of their swing will be reclaiming lost ground). Probably 25 or so seats.
Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?
I find this result entirely understandable in the context of the SA State economy (in recession for nine months now) and budget (cut severely in 2012).
It was not the government’s fault the BHPB pulled the pin on Olympic Dam, and it is this decision, not Holden fears, that has knocked the stuffing out of employment in Adelaide. that being said, the governmetn ahs really strugggled to work out what to do next, other than raise taxes and cut spending. end result: economy doing no better than austerity-hit Europe, and popularity going south fast.
I think this has little to do with Weatherall or Marshall, neither of whom has a high media profile in my perception.
Unsurprising result. I do not expect us to win.
[Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?]
No
Labor gorn in SA for no particularly good reason other than its time and there has only been bad news in SA since Taylor Walker did his knee.
[
Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?
No]
As usual I agree with Carey. Weatherill is getting caned by a piss weak response to child abuse when he was Education Minister.
I would also agree the education abuse scandal has damaged Weatherall. As Minister if he did not know he was at fault. If he did know and the staffer took the fall for him, as seems obviously the case, then it looks worse. It was a dumb decision, and makes him look untrustworthy. As usual in the SA public service, the first reaction is to hide evidence of incompetence, rather than hold the incompetent accountable. The hiding, when revealed, does more damage than the incompetence itself.
Agree on the sex abuse scandal.
What makes matters worse (and this wasn’t really his fault) was he was on vacation when the latest news broke, making him look aloof. I confess certain elements of the media have been actively playing it up but Weatherill has not handled this well at all.
What he needs to do is come out on the front foot over this and stop looking like he’s trying to sweep it up under the rug. Among other things, he should:
1) Announce some serious head rolling over this. The Government are trying to find savings by trimming the public service, without looking like its trying to find savings by trimming the public service – here’s a chance.
2) Meet with that mother who’s been crusading over the issue (I can’t remember her name) and I don’t just mean a pat on the back and a photo op. Give her an hour or two in private, listen to her and discuss ways to practically remedy things. Even if it is just to give her personal peace of mind. Don’t just avoid her because the media love a “good guy” who stands up against the system and they will let that snowball into something even more dramatic.
3) Be open and transparent about all investigative findings. People (rightfully) see government investigations that are done quietly as just the government covering their arses.
4) Actually be genuinely regretful. Even if none of it is actually JW’s fault in the slightest, he should still acknowledge as Minister at the time and current Premier, he needs to be responsible.
There’s still time to manage this but if he still plays it like he has by seemingly sweeping it under the rug, then it could blow out to be this election’s Michelle Chantelois saga.
And, TBH, I do not want to give the Libs a landslide. One term is more than enough.
Also, on the economy, there are actually a few bright sparks on the horizon.
In the long term, the SA economy will actually be stronger. The growth is in retail and hospitality (which is actually a long term industry) and tech industries. In the short term, there will be pain though.
Too many eggs were put into mining without contingency and we’re still completely dependent on auto jobs staying. Time to ween off those industries and invest in ones that actually are in increasing demand.
The services industry is a staying one and reflects a consumerist economy – which is healthy. Tech and R&D needs to be invested in further. Education and training is a must too.
Cultural endowments and attempts to gentrify the inner suburbs and city need to continue as well (as well as further attempts to make the place seem more vibrant) – because jobs don’t matter if every younger person with an education or profession decides to move to Melbourne or Sydney. Without sounding ageist, we need the younger people to contribute to the economy, without draining on the health system.
Hopefully when Marshall is in, he doesn’t listen to ideologues like Evans and governs pragmatically, and leaves working strategies and worthwhile infrastructure investments alone.
Just to clarify: post 19 wasn’t meant to imply the government can save itself but, rather, it can contain any rage and make the loss mild.
The abuse whistleblower mum is definitely Weatherlls Chantelois. She’s got the media on side and she’s on a winner with the public and she’s very very angry.
Given that I haven’t even seen yet who were the education department public servants named in the report, the mother is correct – it is being covered up. Why are they entitled to anonymity, if they have been found by an independent inquiry to be at fault?