BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 47 of 55
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  2. [Twenty staff at a Perth car leasing company face the axe in the wake of the Federal Government’s move to overhaul the fringe benefits tax system.

    Fleet Network managing director Eric Cain said the future for his Osborne Park company was bleak after the decision to end one of the two ways the FBT exemption on company-owned and salary-sacrificed cars was calculated.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18055524/fbt-changes-start-to-bite/

  3. Hello bludgers,

    Back from OS trip.

    Hey Mari, just had a week in London with temps mostly high 20’s low 30’s. I can’t believe how hot it was, warning – don’t use the underground in that weather anywhere near peak periods. Made for some uncomfortable site seeing but better than the constant drizzle I seem to remember. Parks & country side were glorious.

    Roll on global warming!

    Have been watching events whilst away & am still trying to come to terms with PMJG changing to PMKD. I have to admit it didn’t blow up in Labor’s face as I thought it might so to those posters who thought a return to Rudd would improve Labor’s polls, well heck you where right. 🙂

    I see it’s back to business for the LNP – STOP THE BOATS.

  4. The more that comes out about the military coup in Egypt the worse it sounds. The Guardian reports that the army killed 51 people in a coordinated attack on the pro-Morsi protestors. They even shut down Al Jazheera coverage of what they were doing, and killed a cameraman.
    In BKs absence I am sure he would have linked this one about a NSW priest in the witness box over why a paedophile colleague was not reported to police for years.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/jul/18/cairo-republican-guard-shooting-full-story

  5. Thanks triton.

    [Primary Vote: ALP 39% (up 1)

    TPP: ALP 49%, LNP 51%

    However with Turnbull as leader

    TPP: ALP 42%, LNP 58%!!!

    PPM: 65%, Rudd, 35%]

    Obviously Turnbull is way more popular than Abbott on those figures. Wonder what they were.

  7. I’d say it’s more likely a reflection of Abbott’s unpopularity than Turnbull’s popularity. Most people wouldn’t know who Malcolm Turnbull is.

  8. I don’t understand what all the fuss is about over the changes to car FBT. We have 3 company vehicles & have had to complete log books for all of them, it’s not that hard.

    Maybe someone should design an app to do it for you.

  13. BTW Was watching the news tonight and was on about the Queen at the cricket when up popped an old man(gee he has aged) greeting the Queen Johnny himself and of course Jeanette, my hosts who know my undying admiration for him took great delight in pointing him out Teasers:grin:

    Night all I have the overhead fan on low how about that?

  15. The language and stance is getting stronger from the opposition:

    [The Federal Opposition has suggested it could withdraw from the historic United Nations Refugee Convention as part of a “war” on people smugglers.

    The extraordinary threat comes as the Government continues to suggest it believes the 1951 agreement is outdated and not relevant to the asylum-seeker crisis facing Australia.]

    Sounds like they’re positioning themselves in anticipation of the govt withdrawing Australia from the treaty.

  16. Tony Abbott is now lying on ABC News24 – ‘all Rudd has to to is restore TPV’s, no need to recall Parliament…’. He must know that is crap. Why isn’t the interviewer challenging him? TPVs DID NOT WORK. They were introduced 20/10/1999. Here are the numbers:

    Year Boats People
    1998–99 42 921
    1999–00 75 4175
    2000–01 54 4137
    2001–02 19 3039

  19. I can see a particularly ugly boat-based election campaign ahead if Abbott remains opposition leader and the LNP are not in a winning position.

  20. mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 8:28 am | Permalink
    I don’t understand what all the fuss is about over the changes to car FBT. We have 3 company vehicles & have had to complete log books
    ========================================================

    THEY HAVE dave put a link here to two apps available to down load
    looked at them , look good to me

  21. Confessions #2315, disagree. The Govt is perhaps positioning itself re seeking internationally a review of the COnvention (eg conference of states parties can do this) – repudiation would be something way more stupid and thus a likely stance for the current Libs. Howard and Ruddock never went there …

  22. triton
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink
    For the Malcolm question the Greens dropped from 8.3% PV to 6.8%.
    ==========================================================

    can u please elaborate please triton

  23. MM:

    Sorry, I meant the opposition anticipating the govt withdrawing from the Convention, not that it necessarily would.

    Personally I just wish the whole issue would go away. The last thing I think Australians want is an election campaign focused on boats and inflammatory rhetoric. 🙁

  27. I am to the stage I don’t care what mr rudd does re refugees
    we have to stop all the ugly stuff people in the opp . say

    then after that we can work on if that’s possible
    real solutions,

    abbott and the libs are bringing us down to the gutter

  28. [Treasurer Chris Bowen has defended this week’s move to tighten fringe benefits tax rules on cars used partly for work purposes, likening it to former treasurer Paul Keating’s crackdown on rorted restaurant meals in the 1980s.

    The comparison came amid news of job losses in the fleet sector. Mr Bowen said the decision, which would return $1.8 billion over four years, was justified on the grounds of fairness, and would mainly affect high-income earners leasing luxury imported cars.

    The Hawke government’s move on restaurant meal deductions in the 1980s brought wild claims of imminent ruin for the hospitality sector, but it never occurred.

    ”It wasn’t popular, it was controversial, {but} I don’t hear people today clamouring for a policy change back, because it was the right thing to do to put the budget on a sustainable footing,” Mr Bowen said.]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lax-tax-rule-on-cars-same-as-restaurant-rorts-says-bowen-20130718-2q7aw.html#ixzz2ZRL9Ll00

    I can remember the howls of protest about restaurants going bankrupt because they would lose the business crowd who had long boozy lunches. However restaurants still seem to be here and, as people need to eat, the government’s decision probably encouraged shorter and more healthy lunches.

  29. poroti

    [How are the “natives” handling the heat]

    BTW, their heat-waves are sweltering. In the cities, where tarred roads, footpaths, roofs & jam-packed crowds push temps & humidity well above official max. Much less tolerable than Summer Briz (or Cairns, T’ville etc) when it’s mid30s, max humidity … and I’m used to it.

    Some alternatives – mind you, some of these may have been improved for the 2012 (Summer) Olympics
    (1) They don’t
    (2) To Aussie eyes, hilariously. Strip off to their shorts (or undies) to expose what start as sickly white bodies & lie in the sun – even when white turns tomato red
    (3) they strip off and paddle/ swim/ just lie in any available water – from the Serpentine to tiny ponds in those small garden squares
    (4) they drink cold beer, often Fosters, in mini-pubs so crowded they have to stand all over the footpaths to drink
    (5) gents in suits & bowler hats stroll down City streets incongruously licking dripping icecreams
    (6) some shops buy/ bring out a small (c25cm) fan/ small aircon unit or two to cool shops, museums etc. In July 1983, on the first day of the Summer sales (official temp 93F degrees) Harrods has those small fans on the odd few counters. In 2010 (1st Tuesday July) crowded British Museum’s Parthenon room had (to OH’s sarcastic glee) 2 such small fans up near the pediment; though by Thursday had graduated to one small aircon in the same place (we have a very similar one that cools a small bedroom & not much else).
    (7) The Tube system – all of it (+ any fixed-window rail carriage, the cooling systems of which isn’t working) are Turkish Baths turned up to the max

    Oh! Though it probably doesn’t need to be said, after a week or so of heatwave, grass shrivels, grass/wild fires start burning, tar melts, overhead r’way powerlines have problems (inc catch fire) & (8) Poms start whingeing!

  30. thank you triton.

    thought that could be the case,

    funny lot those greens, I don’t think they have any idea of what they stand for any more

    they certainly don’t here, re the tarkine and objecting to a very small area and I mean small for a small mine

    the Tassie devils are dying from a disease which the tas gov have spent big on to help them restore to health

    I think the little devils are too smart to sit and bulldozed they would just move on,

    the greens don’t give a fig about tas getting on with doing stuff for the good of the state

  31. [ He has the same kind of honesty as Tony Abbott. ]

    And he needs to treated in the same way.

    I just hope the Poms put the boot in this time. Good and proper.

  33. Unfortunately I suspect this election campaign might make the 2001 campaign look tame. I remember it all too well. Every time the Liberals had a bad day in 2001, out would come “we will decide who comes to this country” etc etc etc. It is going to be ugly.

  34. gloryconsequence@2311


    Mark Riley confirming Rudd to announce full asylum seeker policy measures today

    I would have thought the full caucus would have been briefed on monday and then the position announced.

    But it is a newspoll weekend and the clock is ticking.

    Morrison will continue to be front and centre daily up to election day on ‘boats!’.

    He is dog whistling and also hoping, praying that boats arrive in fleets.

  37. morning all

    Miaaing BK and his dawn patrol. Hope he ia okay. He was dealing with wild weather up hia way yeaterday evening

  39. [ The Federal Opposition has suggested it could withdraw from the historic United Nations Refugee Convention as part of a “war” on people smugglers. ]

    They are also encouraging anyone who may have even only thought of hopping on a boat to do asap and certainly before the election.

  41. From a Bennelong resident:

    [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account 1h
    @themetresgained In a battle between two lightweights, the incumbent had the advantage. Alexander just doesn’t like people. Li will do well.

    Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account 56m
    @themetresgained No, JA had advantage over the other guy. Li is no lightweight, isn’t awkward like JA is. Too soon to say JA gone, but …]

    Of course it’s way too soon, and remember that the Liberals have truckloads of money at their disposal.

  42. Kevin

    [COLOUR SCHEME NOW SWITCHED FROM LIBERAL BLUE TO THE CLOSEST I COULD FIND TO KEVIN RUDD’S TIE. COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE.]

    Bahaha

  43. PMKR has really been busy, including latest negotiations with Indonesia about visas.

    Just saw Mayor of (bankrupt) Detroit announcing a team of financial experts to deal with the problem.

    He said “I know Kevin has pulled together a great team to get this done”

  45. Probably you are all aware of this but if anyone wants some stats on asylum seekers check out UNHCR’s web site, I think this link is right:

    http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/search?page=&comid=4146b6fc4&cid=49aea93aba&keywords=Trends

    Download asylum levels & trends .pdf. Europe cops it big time, over 1.5 million from 2008-2012 v’s Australia’s 50k. This needs to be read in context with asylum seekers per 1000 population though. Interestingly Australia & Europe are similar here.

  46. [ Personally I just wish the whole issue would go away. ]

    It won’t. No matter how much people want it to.

    Its the tories last, best hope of winning and they will flog it to death every day up to the election.

    Its sad but true that the tories do this sort of stuff very effectively.

    Yes voters have had a total gutful already as well and are primed for what morrison is saying. But many of those votes probably already in current polling. The real question is can they swing more back to them with the ranting.

    Turnbull as leader would be the game changer though.

  47. @Confessions/2341

    At least they did before Rudd coming onboard.

    btw, if Rudd is announcing full AS policy today, does that mean election will be announced soon? (like next week?)

  48. OH who is not particularly politically engaged just said “I’ve been watching Abbott over the last week or so and he really looks like a man drowning”.

  49. http://www.afr.com/p/national/indonesia_cracks_down_on_iranian_FxeG6Q597k8GGRLScoWkFK

    Indonesia cracks down on Iranian visas to stem boat tide
    PUBLISHED: 4 HOURS 21 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 HOUR 0 MINUTES AGO
    PHILLIP COOREY Chief political correspondent AND JOANNA HEATH

    [Indonesia has joined the fight against people smuggling by announcing a crackdown on issuing visas to Iranians who transit the country en route to Australia.

    Following a request issued by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd when he was in Jakarta for talks last week, Indonesia’s Justice and Human Rights Department issued a decree to stop Iranians being issued a visa upon arrival.

    Iranians comprise the bulk of what Australian authorities and the government believes to be a significantly increasing proportion of economic migrants – those who come to Australia for economic reasons rather than to flee persecution.

    The economic migrants fly into Indonesia, are issued visas, and then take boats to Australia. The Iranian government refuses to take them back, meaning they cannot be forcibly repatriated.]

  50. dave@2346

    I agree, scumbaggery is the Libs default option. I would hope the ranting would drive some voters away though, the racists are welded on already.

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