Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).
What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.
Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.
However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.
The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.
Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.
Rudd needs to call the election ASAP for August.
Plain and simple.
psyclaw
Your OH is correct. Abbott has a sickly look about him at the moment
While I hold no brief for the Egyptian Army I am not at all sure that the accounts we are getting are necessarily all that accurate. For one thing they portray events as having clarity, certainty when the greatest likelihood is that events are confused and are being lied about.
The bulk of the killings occurred the day after there had been confused reports of armed Morsi supporters moving through a suburb towards the killing zone. There were stray, but minor gunfire incidents during this night movement in which stray suburbanites were wounded or were killed. It is not clear whether the suburbanites themselves opened fire in what they would reasonably have concluded was an armed invasion of their area. At any rate, the Morsi supporters moved through the area – they were not there to stay.
There is evidence that, on the day of the bulk of the killings, at least some individual Morsi supporters were armed and that used their weapons in what was subsequently portrayed by Morsi supporters as a peaceful protest outside the place where the Army was holding Morsi. Further, the Morsi supporters went on to claim that the Army turned the peaceful demonstration into something of a blood bath.
IMHO, we don’t know who did what. The most likely guess is that at least some elements on both sides were loaded for bear and intended that there would be bloodshed. On the one side the Army would have been intent on demonstrating that it was ready, willing and able. On the other side, there was a need for martyrs.
I hold no brief for an Army that has destroyed democracy in Egypt. In terms of our democracy, we should be treated with respect in terms of the quality of the information we are provided about all this by the MSM.
The only two things we can be truly confident about is firstly that both Morsi supporters and enemies and the Army will all lie about what is happening. The second thing is that the Western media will be extremely prone to getting wrong. It very often does when it comes to reporting about the middle east and islamic countries generally.
BW – its one of those situation where everyone is a loser.
Very sad, lives being destroyed and hatred inculcated for generations.
Marrickville Mauler@2325
I think the effect of this pre-selection will extend well beyond Bennelong to any seat with a significant Chinese population and probably other Asian communities as well.
Now, which of those are marginals?
The high number of people who currently say they would change their vote if Turnbull were LNP leader, is similar to the numbers who said they would change their vote if Rudd were ALP leader.
As the ALP vote rose substantially when Rudd actually became ALP leader, there must be some anxiety in the LNP that the only way to ensure a win would be to switch to Turnbull.
Although Turnbull has said publicly that he would not challenge for the position, he has not specifically ruled out being drafted into the top job. Abbott and his cronies are probably now hoping fervently that Rudd calls an early election to forestall any move to replace him with Turnbull.
Of course, Rudd will be looking closely at any movement within the LNP to ensure he is not disadvantaged electorally by an LNP move to Turnbull.
*Disclaimer* The following does not in any way represent my opinion on the referendum. I am posting it purely as an example of the kind of stuff that is circulating in email land. I received it earlier this week.
[“Please note, this is from a friend who is well informed in the political area. It is critical that all people oppose (vote NO to) the proposed change to recognise local government in the constitution at the referendum at the September election.
By local government areas being recognised, then Sharia law can be demanded in the local area based on the percentage of Muslim people in that local area.
This is exactly how the Muslims obtained Sharia law to be recognised in the UK.”]
Here’s a list of countries whose citizens are entitled to a visa on arrival in Indonesia. http://www.indo.com/tplan/visa.html
Amazed and heartened that the Indonesian Government has taken Iran off the list. Effective diplomacy by PMKR? You bet
What are the chances of Rudd literally adopting the Coalition’s exact policy including TPV’s in order to neuter the issue?
[Abbott and his cronies are probably now hoping fervently that Rudd calls an early election to forestall any move to replace him with Turnbull.]
You mean like crying out ELECTION NOW twenty times a day? 😉
[victoria
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink
psyclaw
Your OH is correct. Abbott has a sickly look about him at the moment]
I actually agree with that. I saw him answering a question a day or two ago and that was the first thing that crossed my mind.
deblonay
‘Recently the Pope visited the little island of Lampedusa between Sicily and Libya where tens of thiousands have found a gateway into Europe…and as many as 30.000 may have died in the waters near Sicily.. in recent years
He spoke of this great problem for humanity’
The Pope is probably the single person with the greatest power to take an individual action that would substantially reduce world poverty going forward:
Stop calling contraception a sin.
Until he does this he can wring his rosary beads as much as he likes; he can engage in as much pious waffle as he likes and he can exhort others to change their behaviour as much as he likes.
But the truth is that he (along with other religious leaders – islamic and hindi in particular) is part of the problem, not part of the solution
Of course the fact that Indonesians are Sunni and Iranians are (mostly) Shia does help! But hard to think of another instance in my years of observing Indonesia where it has changed domestic policy to accommodate a request from a foreign government. If you know Indonesian attitudes, that’s a real wow moment.
So, is Jason related to Sun Yat Sen?
Illustrious ancestor, if so.
Today is a sad day for me, it is the 2nd anniversary of my two dogs Ajax and Stamp going missing, when they got out of my Mum’s yard and were picked up by a man in a car. It was only 8 weeks after the death of my husband. They are microchipped and I continue using social media, posters and msm adverts to search for them. Thank you to thoise at Pollbludger and The PUB and on Twitter who have helped and supported me and made people aware of the effects of pet theft on families.
I would appreciate any help by sharing their facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/AjaxandStamp
or
Gumtree advertisement http://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/salisbury-north/lost-found/ajax-and-stamp-two-missing-dogs-tenterfield-x-jrt-july-2011/1023322274
or putting their poster up in places like your local shops.
I am going to mark the day by tying a yellow ribbon on a poster near where they were stolen.
Is it possible that, having wrecked the joint to the best of their abilities for three years, neither of the rotten apples will win the prize?
Will Turnbull swoop?
gloryconsequence, I don’t think Labor could stomach turning boats back. Nor should they. My impression is that Rudd is making the issue out to be a complex one (which it is) and presenting himself as capable of dealing with it by working with other countries in the region, in contrast to Tony Abbott, who comes across as a slogan-repeating simpleton. Abbott just does not look PM material behaving like this.
[What are the chances of Rudd literally adopting the Coalition’s exact policy including TPV’s in order to neuter the issue?]
Except that the Coalition’s policy is a bunch of empty slogans. Rudd needs to adopt a policy that will actually stop the boats. That’s what the electorate wants, and specifically what Labor voters want.
Puffy
Sorry to hear that your dogs are still missing.
Outsider
Agreed. It is a big deal.
Puffy
🙁
Introducing the TPV caused a massive spike in arrivals as women an children starting to accompnay the men, once reunion had been denied to TPV refugees.
Why do the LNP think this policy was a winner? It was a complete own goal, even by their own sick criteria.
I think the ALP – even in this new new guise of toughness – should take them on on TPVs. They didnt deter anything – they *encouraged* arrivals by boat. They just punished them once they were here.
Those alarmists:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/heatwave-death-toll-up-to-760-killed-and-total-may-double-as-temperatures-above-30c-set-to-continue-8718171.html
The number of people held in immigration detention during the time the boats stopped.
2002–03 6602
2003–04 6196
2004–05 7410
2005–06 6510
2006–07 4718
from Dept of Immigration website Fact sheet 8
Outsider@2358
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka not on that list, yet they comprise the bulk of current AS.
How do those who fly into Indonesia gain admittance?
There may be a separate visa type for Muslims ?
I thought this was a situation applying between various Muslim countries.
Glory
Relax mate. You’ll live longer
dave
Is not the key phrase in all that ‘…on arrival…’? I assume that there is nothing stopping anyone from applying for a visa to visit Indonesia from somewhere else.
No doubt there would be ways and means of expediting such applications.
Outsider@2363
Does Malaysia require visas from Iranians?
If not, I would expect a new people smuggling business to commence smuggling Iranians from Malaysia to Indonesia.
All the scheduled ferries are checked by Immigration Officials but there is no way they could check the comings and goings of countless fishing craft and other small boats.
Cheers for your thoughts triton and Pseph.
Spur – duly noted!
dave
In the Philippines if you overstay your visa you pay a bit extra on the way out. This is quite normal and there are ordinarily around special queues for this purpose at Manila airport.
This spate of polls showing Turnbull well ahead of Abbott would never have seen the light of day a few weeks ago – someone has given the order that Abbott is unelectable and needs to be replaced as leader.
[ Stop calling contraception a sin.
Until he does this he can wring his rosary beads as much as he likes; he can engage in as much pious waffle as he likes and he can exhort others to change their behaviour as much as he likes.]
On this one issue alone, Catholic church verment opposition to birth control since PNG Independence has added hugely to the long list of serious problems that PNG has.
The same applies in the Philippines.
For those wishing last night to paint public opinion expressed in the best quality survey in recent years as hopelessly racist, and incapable of being led back to that better place we were in so recently, with onshore processing, I disagree.
For this poll to be the situation in 2011 after 10 years of demonization from both major parties is testament to the inner-core values of the ‘fair go’ still being inherent in Australians, and just looking for the right leadership to blossom again. It would sure beat the disgusting cheap behaviour of Labor and LNP in recent times in search of the old One Nation vote.
[“The number supporting settlement in Australia was nonetheless a very solid 49 per cent, although there remained a combined 44 per cent in favour of the less liberal options of temporary protection visas (29 per cent support) and sending boats back out to sea (15 per cent).”]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/08/17/of-boats-and-votes/
PMKR’s asylum seeker statement should include something along the following lines:
“All options have been considered in our policy revision, including a resumption of the boat “turn back” policy, which has been discussed at length both with Australian Defence Force commanders and with the Indonesian Government. Current senior ADF officers have advised that for operational reasons such a policy is no longer practicable, and fraught with risk for our defence personnel.
Moreover the attitude of the Indonesian Government is clear. It will not in any circumstances tolerate a unilateral boat turn back policy by Australia. The risks from unilateral action by Australia are clear, and we have no wish to compromise Australia’s diplomatic, military and trading relationships with our most significant neighbour.
The Indonesian Government has been very understanding of Australia’s concerns, and announced yesterday its decision to deny Visa on Arrival entry to Iranian citizens, who comprise an increasingly large number of asylum seeker boat arrivals to Australia.
In addition, my Government now announces a number of further policy measures…..”
There is a flourishing amount of material being floated by Deniers that AGW prevention is much more costly than AGW repair.
They can usually come up with prevention costs to the umpteenth decimal point.
But when it comes to repair costs they get very, very hazy. For example, I have yet to see a single Denialist economist put a price on krill extinction.
Lesser matters like the cost to economies of hundreds of deaths and the cost of other responses to heatwaves also receive short economic shrift.
The point is, of course, to dissuade people from wanting to pay for prevention. So the focus is on that cost.
dave
‘The same applies in the Philippines.’
Amen to that, brother.
Sorry Dawn Patrolled, we have had no power since seven last night and it won’t be back on until lunch time. Trees down everywhere. Mobile Phone network has also been troubled. I am on the road now. Catch you all this afternoon.
The experts – and logic – tell us that the boats will not stop, no matter how cruel we are to those in flight arriving here. A slight chance of drowning means nothing; even indefinite detention is preferable to intolerable oppression and the fear for one’s family. There is no time for thought, just the urge to flee. We would all do exactly the same – all of us – to save our family.
Rudd needs to open up Abbott’s moronic and shortsighted “this is not a world problem” by raising questions about his ability to lead Australia on the world stage. Tied in with his invisible substance rubbish.
dave
‘BW – its one of those situation where everyone is a loser.
Very sad, lives being destroyed and hatred inculcated for generations.’
It seems to me that, if you look across the ME, there is a general political approach based on winner-take-all.
This tends to mean that re-arranging the winners from time-to-time perforce costs blood and treasure.
BK
Take care. 🙂
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 2m
Detroit becomes largest US city to file for bankruptcy in historic ‘low point’ http://ow.ly/n6MiP
Thats right JV – there’s a lot of latent support for refugee programs, and for that reason political leadership definitely counts.
Given there’s zero hope of bipartisanship from the LNP, I do get the ALPs caution here, but I dont thnk there’s much future in the ALP running hard on this ground – its Tory central, as they can always go lower, other policy areas are always stronger for the centre left.
If only we’d had the convention in the 1930s, boatloads of Jewish refugees from Europe wouldnt have been turned back from the US and Canada. Both parties want to remember that before dong anything stupid.
BK
Best wishes.
Our Puffy
You’ve certainly had a lot of sadness over the last couple of years. Hopefully being a part of the PB family has helped a little. Our thoughts are with you.
I know the ALP is getting a lot of mileage out of the headlines of rudd popping the Iranian visa question to BBY, but does anyone really think Rudd just dropped it into the convo over tea and petit fors?
This would have been negotiated by PMJG with BBY, underling to underling, and when the correct answer to the correct question was agreed, the leaders did their stuff.
I believe Yes Minister had a very instructive episode on the subject.
Dave. The short answer is no. There is no specific visa type in Indonesia for Muslims. The list is the list. However you will note that many of the countries on the list are Islamic, but it’s a case by case policy, not a specific one. My understanding is that most of the Sri Lankan refugees get to Indonesia by boat – and these are not the small boats that we see arriving in Australian waters, , but larger ocean going ships which can arrive in one of Indonesia’s myriad of small, poorly regulated, coastal ports. I have heard that it is also common for refugees to arrive in Indonesia via Malaysia. It is a relatively short transit journey from Malaysia to Indonesia by small boats – which are even less likely to be detected. It is a regional problem, which is what SBY continues to emphasise. The face-saving option will be for Australia to provide significantly increased aid funding for Indonesia to protect its own borders and intelligence gathering to assist in the detection and arrest of people smugglers, in Indonesia.
Puff. Absolutely right. I suspect discussions between PMJG and SBY on this very issue go back at least as far as last year’s Darwin meeting.
Bemused
Any Muslim from anywhere can enter Malaysia without a visa.
That is a vip factor on the “pull” side which is out of our control at the moment. And with the former “get your visa when you get here” policy of Indonesia, the gate was open right up to the wharf in Indonesia.
Darn@2395
Says it all. I agree.