Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
Rocket Rocket
Oops forgot the link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyY-xI6zgfk
@ruawake/50
And I hope it’s not Turnbull: I just found this out!!
http://www.zdnet.com/turnbulls-uk-nbn-template-turns-sour-7000017751/
[So either it’s developed a new bias all of a sudden, or this is a rogue result (which is certainly possible), or we can expect the Labor poll bubble to inflate further with the next round of results.]
Hi William.
That sounds like a triple Michelle Grattan with pike!
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiEUDzIrEQE)
clip for the week. Fudd? wabbitt? works for me
I expect Bob Ellis to be aroused by Morgan in to writing something effusive.
ratsak @ 32
If we get a Nielsen and Newspoll that also show Labor ahead then I’m with you on calling an August election.
I do love the smell of burning Abbott in the morning.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxiv3CBMS4M)
alternately
Evening all.
Fantastic news! I’ve learned today that I have to go to Perth later in the week and so will an apology for the meeting with Concetta Fierrvanti-Wells.
🙂
The polling analysts would be sweating because they have claim the opinion polling despite the media influence are reality
So if these current opinion polling are not reality, then the ones before were not reality as well
Betting markets have Labor on $4.15 to Coalitions $1.22
How can Labor possibly win?
[I expect Bob Ellis to be aroused by Morgan in to writing something effusive.]
Did we ever find out what happened with that polling in Dobell he mentioned at one point?
The opinion polls once again have got the election wrong
and it has sucked a few political polling analysis in making the call in 2011,2012
that the election is over and the coalition will win
‘
‘
They must be sweating like joe hockey now
PM Rudd says that the people demand that “the Prime Minister they elect is the Prime Minister they get”.
Told you, you tell the people they are getting THEIR PM back.
Will people now vote against the PM they elected?
I like it 😎
The move by Rudd to allow a 50% vote for the membership is a great move.
It will encourage people to get involved with the Party again.
There will be no factional cabals being able to dominate ever again thank God and ALP supporters will feel they are actually important in the scheme of things.
Would not mind betting that Albo and others have had a say in this change.
I wonder if Keating at his lunch with Rudd discussed this issue yesterday as well.
We are seriously back in the game again and given the polls released today albeit that they may be a little out we are coming back in a big way.
Shorten is endorsing Andrew Landeryou’s wife Kimberley Kitching to run in Julia Gillard’s seat where Julia Gillard is endorsing a Primary School Headmistress.
Old habits for Bill never die I would not trust the mongr*l as far as I could kick him.
Glad to see the ALP vote go up in NSW and QLD despite all the troubles there.
We are as I said before back in business well and truly.
Tom Hawkins
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
Sean Tisme
They’ll vote for Labour as Rudd makes Abbott look like a desperate, lying, blubbering fool. By election day you’ll be voting Rudd as well.
———————————————————
Sean will be on a plane to NZ – he promised
This one poroti?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wT9XS_TvzQ
This catatonic state that Abbott enters never ceases to amaze me. It last 28 seconds – just enough for a 30 second ad with voice over
Sean Tisme
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:27 pm | PERMALINK
Betting markets have Labor on $4.15 to Coalitions $1.22
How can Labor possibly win?
—————-
2010 when katter made his decision to support the coalition
labor were $6.00
Sean Tisme
[How can Labor possibly win?]
Ask John Hewson 😉
Sean
The night before the Victorian State Election the Coalition were still paying over $3.50 I think. I got the feeling that they were about to win narrowly, even thought about putting money on them, but couldn’t bring myself to do it!
Oh yes, like in WA, the bookmakers’ “outsider” got up to win.
I am ambivlent about this proposal, and await further details:
[Under the process proposed by Rudd, with support from the Labor leadership team, the ALP parliamentary leader would be elected jointly by the ALP membership and caucus, with each having 50% of the vote.]
However, think this is a great idea in principle, just not sure how it would work in practice:
[A victorious Labor prime minister would also be fireproofed against leadership spills for the duration of a parliamentary term unless 75% of caucus decided they had brought the party into disrepute, effectively ruling out the circumstances that led to the removal of both Rudd and Julia Gillard, as well as repeated leadership instability during Gillard’s term.]
Again, more detail required.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/07/08/rudds-reform-surprise-alp-members-to-elect-party-leader/
Sean Tisme
And when Windsor and Oakeshot gave their support to labor
that was class a win for labor – retain government
thanks My Say
I have great respect for those who rescue and adopt senior dogs. If I was adding a dog to my home it would be a senior.
A nation should hang their heads in shame…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsECK-gRCGc&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Any poll that suggests Tony Abbott will not rule as he was born to rule, must be a rogue. No other reality is permitted. Seriously, I can’t see the real figure being better than 52:48 2pp to Labor, but even so, what an improvement. The trend and shift in media sentiment is striking.
With leadership gone, policy being addressed, and a commitment to structural reform, the electorate is making its views clear. Now Abbott is finally under pressure, his refusal to debate Rudd or provide details on policy is starting to to damage him. Finally, real pressure on Abbott.
I would love to see how the undecided figure changes over coming weks. Even when Abbott lead Gillard his peronal dissapproval was high, indicating the Liberal 2pp was soft.
poroti
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
Ask John Hewson
———————
Yes and he blamed Abbott for the lost in 1993:)
[Old habits for Bill never die I would not trust the mongr*l as far as I could kick him.]
If I were Rudd I’d be telling Shorten to STFU and not interfere with JG’s candidate getting the nomination.
[There will be no factional cabals being able to dominate ever again thank God…]
They will just go back to picking the ministers, which is where it all went wrong for Rudd when he adopted the LNP method.
Vote Rudd, Get Shorty
[Betting markets have Labor on $4.15 to Coalitions $1.22
How can Labor possibly win?]
They win more seats, I think it is the normal way.
Official rule changes for the election of the parliamentary leader:
https://www.facebook.com/ruddfactor/posts/542317285804572
[Vote Rudd, Get Shorty]
Nope that one has gone as well, do keep up.
Wow! Good poll for Labor!
Now, about the only thing Kevin could do wrong at this point would be to distract voters attention from Abbott and his complete lack of policies, and instead focus it back on the Labor party and its perpetual leadership ructions for a couple of critical weeks.
But surely he wouldn’t be stupid enough to do that, now would he? …. oh, wait ….
Jeez – what a wonker!
Ch 9 Adelaide – positive report of Labor reforms, saying it mutes Coalition attack ads questioning ‘faceless men’ tactics that have already been created.
How anyone could think a HSU union rep who is the wife of Slanderyou who may I add… has pictures of the Swastika next to a story about the Greens on the website as we speak… is a good idea is beyond me.
[If we get a Nielsen and Newspoll that also show Labor ahead then I’m with you on calling an August election.]
The only thing funnier than a poll like that would be the sound of wheel spin as Abbott and his henchmen desperately try to reverse their recent demands for an immediate election.
I do not think Rudd should rush to an election. He made a commitment to resolve certain issues. Once they are resolved and agreed by caucus, then he should call an election. September 14 may well still be the right time.
Here’s GetUp’s latest campaign on the attack on voters in Queensland.
https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/queensland/stand-up-for-democracy/what-are-they-hiding?t=dXNlcmlkPTk2MzI5MCxlbWFpbGlkPTIwODc=
Ch 7 Adelaide – Mark Riley reports Scott Morrison’s words today without question.
Our termite is termite-proofing his leadership. Just fricken hilarious.
“There should be no difference in the eyes of the law between a union boss ripping off union members to company directors who rip off shareholders.”
“Only the Coalition will work in the national interest to protect union members from corruption and dodgy behaviour at the hands of their union bosses,” Senator Abetz concluded.
For all their years in power they failed miserably to protect shareholders from dodgy CEO’s and Boards. We still see company profits plunging, share prices collapsing and the CEO and Board taking million dollar bonuses.
On major company spent $410 million buying its own shares to use a bonuses for CEO and Board, didn’t pay a share dividend for 2 years…
This policy is about Union bashing —nothing more nothing less.
Until they do something about business rorts they are
p–sing into the wind
Rudd’s reforms seem to be (surprise! surprise!) all about Rudd staying PM.
They’re nothing to do with good governance.
As I said before he was elected, Rudd might be good for the party short term (winning elections) but long term it means populist, poll driven government.
Driving home listening to the radio, coalition red tape announcement thingy relegated to after local WA news.
They would’ve planned to lead the week with something positive, except it gets swamped by the proposed ALP reforms and boats.
😆
zoomster:
That is the source of my ambivalence.
If they were announced by anyone else I’d think it was genuine.
Sean 84
For once I agree. You can also add formerly bankrupted to the list of reasons not to select Kitchen. How could she be put in charge of public funds with any credibility? Tell her to find a real job, as Keating might say.
Puff
The new plebiscite in action?
http://ts3.explicit.bing.net/th?id=H.4935592794129738&pid=15.1
Sean Tisme
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:40 pm | Permalink
How anyone could think a HSU union rep who is the wife of Slanderyou who may I add… has pictures of the Swastika next to a story about the Greens on the website as we speak… is a good idea is beyond me.
——————————————————-
how anyone could think that a man who stands in front of banners bearing the words “Ditch the witch” and “Bob Browns Bitch” regarding the then PM is a man worthy of being Prime Minister is beyond me..
@Zoomster/90
I What can you govern with in 3 months?
All major policies are already being implemented.
You either promote them, or they get sacrificed by Abbott on alter.
Player One
[Now, about the only thing Kevin could do wrong at this point would be to distract voters attention from Abbott and his complete lack of policies, and instead focus it back on the Labor party and its perpetual leadership ructions for a couple of critical weeks.
But surely he wouldn’t be stupid enough to do that, now would he? …. oh, wait ….
Jeez – what a wonker!]
If you’re referring to this afternoon’s announcement then I think you have seriously misjudged how this will be received in voter land. When people elect a PM (yes, I know the party elects a leader and the electorate elect local candidates) they want reassurance that their choice will serve a full term. This will be IMO a very popular issue …. even though I personally disagree with the notion.
Achmed 89
Two wrongs do not make a right. The solution is to toughen up rules on both.
“Malcom turbnull was happily spruking the morgan poll when it was 54.5-45.5 to the coalition last week
wonder if he feels the same way now”
Mr Turnbull would be even happier after this result.
Zoomster
Yes, *sigh*
Oh well, let’s try to win the election and then sort this mess out later.
The next time KRuddPM screws up (when, not if) it is going to be much harder to fix.