Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
Sean Tisme
[How anyone could think a HSU union rep who is the wife of Slanderyou who may I add… has pictures of the Swastika next to a story about the Greens on the website as we speak… is a good idea is beyond me.]
Absolutely agree! Shorten will want to retain as much power as he can and would walk over broken glass to do it.
Time to keep an eye out for Rudd walking across the lake.
Rudd and Albo timing of presser at 5PM is interesting tactic. There were only maybe 10-15 journos in attendance.
No urge to get it on the 6PM News?
So far Rudd, is running coalition issues.
Asylum Seekers
Pink Batts
Debt and Deficit
Today he’s running self interest disguised as Party reform.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind hearing about how a new improved Labor government will improve the lot of families.
The public having gotten the gravel out of their shoes now looking up at the choice Rudd/Abbott.
Senate is safe.
Furniture has been saved.
Now the chance of snatching a victory. They will not call an election until they think they can/will be in front.
They will be counting on a better campaign than the Coalition, less the usual MSM interfernce.
Also interesting to see where the Libs stupid AS response will lead them and if recalling Parliament may be useful in slaying Abbott some more.
Rudd and Abbott are perfect foils for each other. They need their own TV show: Egos in Pyjamas … they can fight over who is the biggest banana
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:51 pm | Permalink
…
Personally, I wouldn’t mind hearing about how a new improved Labor government will improve the lot of families.]
Want to go back to trying to convince voters that if your not a “working family” don’t vote Labor?
So ABC24 discussed #Battlerorts with Jamie Briggs.
http://www.tveeder.com/byrange?&from=1373269890&to=1373270400
At least the mainstream media has reported it.
Vote Abbott get The Plague.
[Rudd’s reforms seem to be (surprise! surprise!) all about Rudd staying PM.
They’re nothing to do with good governance.
As I said before he was elected, Rudd might be good for the party short term (winning elections) but long term it means populist, poll driven government.]
SOL
Why are people talking about recalling parliament? It is due to sit in August, no election writs have been issued.
So why the recall?
[The next time KRuddPM screws up (when, not if) it is going to be much harder to fix.]
He never screwed up. A female termite got him.
What a great Monday night for political junkies.
An eye-popping Morgan poll, an Abbott interview on 730 and Q&A.
Wouldn’t wanna be in Tony Abbott’s shoes – might get tinea.
Oh and 4 Corners on the leadership change.
Oh dear, what can the matter be
Tony’s locked himself in the lavatory
there he’ll stay until after election day
and nobody will really care
alias
A great night indeed! We are cooking with gas.
[Now, about the only thing Kevin could do wrong at this point would be to distract voters attention from Abbott and his complete lack of policies, and instead focus it back on the Labor party and its perpetual leadership ructions for a couple of critical weeks.
But surely he wouldn’t be stupid enough to do that, now would he? …. oh, wait ….
Jeez – what a wonker!]
Wrong. This will show Labor is dealing with its own ‘stability issues’ whilst at the same it was highlighting the problems of the Libs AS policy.
Libs are now on backfoot and having focus on their slogans. And positive focus on Labor doing good stuff.
Contrast is good and makes Labor look the better.
WOW! The Lib backbench must be in a cold sweat panic! :devil:
What might Malcome along to rescue them?
What might Turnbull things around?
😉
A few people on this site who think they know a lot about politics, haven’t a clue from the evidence of recent posts.
This is because they are incapable of seeing anything outside the prism of their hatred of Rudd.
Everyone with half a brain or an ounce of integrity would see the reforms as a positive step in their own right. It also plays well in its own right because it reinforces the image of Rudd as the outsider, stepping in and reforming a political institution that people don’t have much time for.
It also negates much of the attack on NSW Labor because he’s reforming that as well, while also feeding into his image as a political outsider.
This is why the Liberal attack adds using Swan et al won’t work. Wonder if they have figured that out yet. I hope they have advisers like Player None and Puff the Tragic Dragon.
MOre detail of the proposed reforms are emerging.
http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/07/08/kevs-backup-plan/
[A few minor details. The 75% of caucus members having to sign the petition is a big, big change. At present, the ratio is one third. Had Julia Gillard not called a spill a few weeks ago, one has to assume that Kevin Rudd would not have been able to cobble together 77 signatures to his petition (if indeed it ever existed), meaning that had these new rules applied then Julia Gillard would still be Prime Minister.
Indeed, it is difficult to imagine a situation (barring a shocking indiscretion) where 75% of the caucus could unite behind a push to unseat the leader.]
Hands up all those who would’ve been happy with this proposed change had it been proposed by Julia Gillard when she was PM?
Mod Lib
I’d be amazed if some key figures in the LNP are not quietly talking about a possible switch to Turnbull if this sort of swing to Rudd keeps up. It’s a big if, but “if” these sort of polls continue to come out, then Abbott is dead in the water, and the pressure for a switch would be overwhelming.
I suspect Turnbull would win the election quite easily.
[Rudd and Abbott are perfect foils for each other. They need their own TV show: Egos in Pyjamas … they can fight over who is the biggest banana]
Just as they could have had a Funniest Home Videos episode on Gillard’s stumbles.
Confessions
[At least the mainstream media has reported it.]
Lyndal tried but JB turned the topic onto the costs associated with leadership changes etc….
Was taken back that Lyndal took his point to discussion instead of staying the course.
Oh well! We beggars have to be content with the morsels we are given. 🙂
zoid
Er, we’re talking about long term changes to the way the party functions, so we’re talking about governance after the election.
And it appears we’re going to junk the idea of good governance in order to make sure Mr Rudd feels safe in his job.
I also find the proposals inherently contradictory – caucus does not get the deciding say in who their leader is, but they do get the deciding say in the Ministry.
So if you’re dissatisfied with your leader, but your only option is to force them to resign, then you vote to give them a Ministry they cannot work with.
Brilliant.
I’m not a fan of the change to the leadership election rules and can see them creating as many problems they intend to solve. Keating would probably never have been PM for a start.
But there’s not much doubt that like Rudd himself they will be popular amongst the population and really do neutralise any attacks from the Libs about voting for Rudd and getting someone else.
Expect lots of ‘stop the boats’ and not much else. The absolute stupidity of having done no policy work for 6 years is being starkly exposed.
Yes, Mod Lib – If Mal doesn’t take by this time next week, he never will. Now is his chance.
The thing about polls is that if your crow when they are up for your side, then you have to take the mud in face when they are on the down side.
As far as Morgan is concerned, it was discounted, then seen as not adding anything to the collective wisdom and then – after a change in methodology – seen to be within the tent again.
I think this is where it is perceived to be at the moment.
While I doubt the very generous swing to Labor does not mean it should be discounted.
ruawake
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
Why are people talking about recalling parliament? It is due to sit in August, no election writs have been issued.
So why the recall?
——————————————————–
Its not a recall. It is a scheduled sitting if the election is not on Sept 14…but that could change
Email from the Labor party
[Victoria
I have just made an announcement that will change the way Labor leaders are elected.
On July 22 there will be a special caucus meeting where I will propose:
The Leader of the Australian Labor Party is elected by a 50/50 split vote by Labor branch members and the Federal Labor caucus;
There are three triggers to change the leader: a leader’s resignation, a federal election loss or a 75 per cent vote of no confidence by the Federal Labor caucus; and
The Federal Labor caucus will decide the members of the Ministry or Shadow Ministry, not the Leader.
These changes are necessary to ensure stability in Labor’s leadership and promote unity.
We’re on the verge of a historic change for our Party – click here to join today.
I hope you support me in these changes to make Labor a more open, democratic Party.
Thanks,
Kevin ]
‘Hands up all those who would’ve been happy with this proposed change had it been proposed by Julia Gillard when she was PM?’
I’d be happier if it had been in place during Rudd’s first term and then we wouldn’t have to suffer three long years of political ineptitude.
adrin
[Everyone with half a brain or an ounce of integrity would see the reforms as a positive step in their own right. It also plays well in its own right because it reinforces the image of Rudd as the outsider, stepping in and reforming a political institution that people don’t have much time for.
It also negates much of the attack on NSW Labor because he’s reforming that as well, while also feeding into his image as a political outsider.]
Exactly!
“adrian”sorry!
Two Bobs Worth
I’m a bit like a kid in a lolly shop when it comes to nights like this, and during elections especially. My favourite for sheer excitement are US elections but this Oz is already thrilling and of course so much is at stake for ordinary folk here.
Aussie Achmed
[Sean will be on a plane to NZ – he promised]
But could he handle it ?
.
Traditional NZ pastime. Non kiwis try it 🙂
[Shotover Canyon Swing Oscars Highlights Part 1 ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9EZNWb4mBc
.
Army march out ceremonies ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiuPb50E1vg
.
Police ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8XZkIs5mYY
.
Parliament ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9pOJ8Bc_-g
[I suspect Turnbull would win the election quite easily.]
Notwithstanding these current polls, I reckon these are the likely results depending on who is actually leading each party:
Gillard versus Abbott: LNP 100 seats to 50
Gillard versus Turnbull: LNP 120 seats to 30
Rudd versus Abbott: LNP 80 seats to 70*
Rudd versus Turnbull: LNP 90 seats to 60
….all just idle speculation, I know, and all but one are completely untestable, I know, but those results are what I reckon would happen.
*If he goes early and his caucus keep their mouths shut and pretend to be supportive and the Libs panic, Rudd could easily win, of course, I just don’t think all those provisos will happen.
Dee:
I’m just happy that it got reported at all. I hope Kingston is able to unearth some more details of the Brough-Ashby-Slipper connection and get that into the mainstream as well!
I rather wait till after election for the Liberals, now that would be good for democracy!!
Not this nonsense about how Labor should be in Opposition, because that would leave pretty much everything in Liberal Party hands.
= no Democracy!
Purely as a political observer, I reckon there is a lot to be said for a Rudd win, actually.
Rudd would become (albeit transiently) omnipotent in the ALP. He could clean out the NSW disease, dismantle the union power bases and introduce people power into the ALP.
The Liberal party would have a nervous breakdown and the centre rightists might reject the right wingers and move the party to the left (not guaranteed, but quite possible).
These would be good things for Australian polity, IMO.
[I’d be happier if it had been in place during Rudd’s first term and then we wouldn’t have to suffer three long years of political ineptitude.]
Thank you for proving my point. You like the rule change because it locks in a leader you approve of.
People like me, however are thinking more long term than just the next 3 years.
Will Rudd be consistent and demand a vote of 75% of caucus in support of the rule changes?
Mod Lib
I think you are quite wrong about current outlook for Rudd. You are failing to take account of the rapidly changing dynamic. In the US, they go on and on about “momentum”, to the point of being a bit tiresome, but there is something in the momentum notion, I think.
Rudd has huge momentum at present. He is making the running on all the issues, and Abbott is running for cover; doesn’t know where to turn. And critically, Abbott is deeply affected by confidence, I have always felt, more than other leaders. Both Gillard and Rudd have shown an uncanny ability to be stoic under fire, but Abbott goes to pieces. Up till June 26, he was cocky, coasting to victory and even he couldn’t put a foot wrong, especially with Peta Credlin planning his every foostep. Now it’s all different.
[People like me, however are thinking more long term than just the next 3 years.]
…so do you agree that the ALP prospects have improved under Rudd?
ModLib
nah, he’ll just potter and dither like he did last time – and this time there won’t be an efficient and capable Deputy PM to clear out the backlog every time he’s overseas, so the pottering and dithering will be more obvious.
Mod Lib,
Rudd is the NSW disease writ large.
“Opinion polls are the only measure of political success”.
poroti
So, tell me, why are you in Perth already?
so abbott is in the blue room getting prepped for the 730 report i assume. no tech head comments, no gospel truth moments, no claiming he has not read the bhp document. he must be bloody nervous. he has not fronted for sometime and who does he get ulhman a soft touch.
ModLib
most posters here have recognised that Rudd would get a boost in the polls and perhaps win the election.
We had – and have – other concerns.
While I support the principle of what Rudd announced this evening, I have to point out that neither he nor the Caucus has the power to change the method by which the ALP’s parliamentary leader is chosen. The Party Constitution says (Part C, 4) “In all parliaments, the parliamentary leadership, the Ministry and Shadow Ministry shall be elected by the Parliamentary Labor Party.” Only a National Conference can change the Constitution.
I think the 75% to get rid of a sitting PM is too high, I realise why Rudd has to do it, vote Kev get XYZ has to be stomped on.
But after the election saner heads should make it 66%.