Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Only the two weekly pollsters to keep us entertained in the wake of last week’s glut, and the results offer something for everybody.

Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.

Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).

The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.

Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,135 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 23
1 2 … 23

  5. When the voters are in the polling booth, who are they going to vote for:

    1. The steady hand of the Coalition

    2. Three more years of infighting, backstabbing, factional infighting, disarray of the Australian Labor Party?

  10. Sean Tisme

    They’ll vote for Labour as Rudd makes Abbott look like a desperate, lying, blubbering fool. By election day you’ll be voting Rudd as well.

  12. Morgan 54.5-45.5 /to Labor/? Wow, just wow. Did Morgan interview only those on drugs – or do they have some secret methodology we should be aware of?

    Sean Tisme: When the voters are in the polling booth, who are they going to vote for:

    1. The steady hand of the Coalition

    2. Three more years of infighting, backstabbing, factional infighting, disarray of the Australian Labor Party?

    Hmmm… That’s a tough one, can I have some thinking music? Watching the ALP spend another 3 years (although let’s face it, Kevin would probably only last another 2 this time before Shorten takes over) fighting themselves does sound pretty appealing.

    Popcorn sales would certainly go up!

  14. Tisme

    They will not vote for Tony Abbott, did you notice how unpopular he is? Even more unpopular than Campbell Newman.

  16. When the voters are in the polling booth, who are they going to vote for:

    1. The dead hand of the corpses
    2. A vibrant lively party that cares enough to have a barney about shit

  17. @John64/12

    What you forget is that Labor has some popular polices (NDIS, NBN etc), and Carbon Pricing fear campaign failed.

    Now that the AS is is putting pressure on Abbott & Co.

    On top of this, The Coalition Party has has 4 Leaders.

    Howard, Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott.

    Who is more infighting, backstabbing, factional ?

  18. Tom Hawkins

    [
    So angered by the polls I clenched my fist

    Tony Abbott
    08.07.2013
    ]
    Not nearly as much as his sphincter 😆

  19. [The ABC website people still in denial about Tony’s BattleRortGate woes.]

    Email MediaWatch and tell them the bias is way too obvious. I did.

  21. [Kevin would probably only last another 2 this time before Shorten takes over) fighting themselves does sound pretty appealing.]

    I guess you missed today’s news. Typical Tory. 😛

  23. Tom @ 10: Sean has to be a wag, a satire, a parody. He is probably really some Labor person having a mock. Sean will vote Labor, for sure.

  25. The Press Corpse will hate the new ALP leadership method. Fancy having to wait 30 days for an answer. PvO and Brittany’s heads will explode by day 2.

  30. sohar
    Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Tom @ 10: Sean has to be a wag, a satire, a parody. He is probably really some Labor person having a mock. Sean will vote Labor, for sure.

    ———-

    Yep

    Sean Tisme a couple of times said labor gets his vote for the nbn

  31. Coalition fans might care to keep in mind that Morgan only has Labor ahead 52.5-47.5 on the two-party preferred measure that matters. This used to be the measure I used in my headlines, but Liberal supporters kept crying and calling me a liar, so I changed to the respondent-allocated measure on the basis that that it was Morgan’s poll and I should replicate their headline in order to avoid confusion. It’s rewarding to observe that this is now having the opposite effect.

  32. From previous…

    Whilst I certainly agree with Kevin and others urging caution regarding Morgan, I more and more think bring back parliament is a bad move for Rudd.

    For a start it makes it much harder for the Coalition to organise a spill 😉 . Early days yet, but the EMS Leadership attributes survey don’t make cheering reading for the Libs. Even Gillard supporters like myself have to acknowledge that whatever the reasons her unpopularity was dragging down the vote. Labor don’t want at this point to lose the leadership popularity advantage they now have.

    This week obviously there would be no chance of a Libspill, but 6 weeks from now if Labor is looking at least even money to hang on and Lib polling is showing that dumping Abbott would win the election, well it will be thanks Tone, but we’ll take it from here. It could be a disaster for them, but I wouldn’t be taking the chance if I was Rudd.

    Secondly, Rudd as others have noted is excelling at the announce and look like a leader stuff – the use of executive power. Where Abbott got him in 2010 was using the legislative power (or more correctly legislative blocking power) to make Rudd look impotent. With less than completely dependable allies like the Greens who would love a chance to play to their own audience Rudd would be running a pretty big risk going back to Parliament. He can simply make (populist) announcements and run them as his campaign platform, rather than getting his hands dirty trying to make deals to get something through this parliament.

    He’ll be looking to dump the referendum and go August as soon as he thinks he’s close enough to get the job done I reckon. Alternatively he could be trolling the Libs and go for Sept 14. October just looks like too much risk for little to no gain to me.

  33. spur212

    [
    Let’s not get carried away by the Morgan. Still early days yet]
    Hey !! After trudging through a desert for so long let us enjoy stumbling across signs of life.

  34. William…

    We should also keep in mind its-a-Morgan

    Morgan for what ever reason has a habit of Labor biased polls, we will need to see a Nielsen or Newspoll before I become a True Believer

  36. Always hesitant to get too excited or otherwise over one poll. But the momentum has undeniably changed, and it is going to be difficult for the Coalition to seeze it back. A question to those wiser on these things than myself, has Essential not been a bit slower to move with the landscape than other polls, i.e Newspoll and Nielsen?

  38. ST @ 3
    [When the voters are in the polling booth, who are they going to vote for:

    1. The steady hand of the Coalition

    2. Three more years of infighting, backstabbing, factional infighting, disarray of the Australian Labor Party?]

    The problem you have is simple:

    A vote for Tony Abbott, is a vote for Tony Abbott.

  40. William Bowe
    [
    Coalition fans might care to keep in mind that Morgan only has Labor ahead 52.5-47.5 on the two-party preferred measure that matters]
    “ONLY” 52.5 -47.5 ahead !!!! Understatement of the year 🙂

  41. @ratsak/32

    Yup, It’s what I figured with the Election date, he did say it could be either side of the September 14th date, but not far off it (or something to that effect).

  42. Sean Tisme

    Malcom turbnull was happily spruking the morgan poll when it was 54.5-45.5 to the coalition last week

    wonder if he feels the same way now

  43. [Morgan for what ever reason has a habit of Labor biased polls, we will need to see a Nielsen or Newspoll before I become a True Believer]

    That reason being their face-to-face methodology, which they’ve now corrected. Since the multi-mode series began it has adhered extremely closely to the overall poll average. So either it’s developed a new bias all of a sudden, or this is a rogue result (which is certainly possible), or we can expect the Labor poll bubble to inflate further with the next round of results.

  45. This is the kind of thing you get in the email from Your Source who provide the pool for Essential.

    [Survey Length : 35 minutes
    Maximum Reward : $8.00
    Minimum Reward : $0.20
    5 X $100 Prize Draw : One entry
    $1,000 Prize Draw : One entry ]

    You have to kinda think a reward is not really needed in a political poll.

  46. ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 6:18 pm | PERMALINK
    This is the kind of thing you get in the email from Your Source who provide the pool for Essential.

    Survey Length : 35 minutes
    Maximum Reward : $8.00
    Minimum Reward : $0.20
    5 X $100 Prize Draw : One entry
    $1,000 Prize Draw : One entry

    You have to kinda think a reward is not really needed in a political poll.

    ———————–

    lol

  49. Rocket Rocket

    [
    ratsak

    A vote for Tony Abbott, is a vote for Tony Abbott.

    There are no more words needed for a poster or 30 second TV ad.
    ]
    With this video playing in the background. The more I watch it the more I am convinced he is a loon.

  50. To me its seems logical that Rudd will get two bounces at least. The first was those who disliked Gillard, the second is those who dislike him but prefer him to Abbott.

    The Libs need a plan B badly at the moment.

Comments Page 1 of 23
1 2 … 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *