Newspoll: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in the latest quarterly state Newspoll result from Queensland, but this most likely represents a correction after an exaggerated LNP lead last time around.

Newspoll’s result on state voting intention in Queensland for the April-June quarter has the LNP government’s lead over Labor at a commanding 59-41, albeit that this is down slightly on the 62-38 blowout recorded in January-March. The LNP is down five points on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor up two to 29%. However, Newspoll still seems to be having trouble with Katter’s Australian Party, which it has unchanged at an unrealistically low 3%. It appears much of the party’s support it stuck in the “others” column, which is at 14% (down one). The poll has the Greens making a handy four-point gain to 10%, which can partly be put down to a correction after a subdued result last time. Campbell Newman is down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 46%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is up one to 34% and steady on 33%. Newman’s lead as preferred premier is down from 53-21 to 49-26, which once again marks a correction after a blowout result last time.

UPDATE (12/7): ReachTEL has published results from a union-commissioned automated phone poll of 1613 respondents which suggests Labor’s Rudd-backed federal surge may have translated to state level, with the Labor on 37.0%, the LNP on 43.3%, the Greens on 5.1%, Katter’s Australian Party on 5.7% and the Palmer United Party on 4.5%. By my reckoning, this pans out to an LNP two-party lead of a bit higher than 53-47 based on preference flows from last year’s election. Further questions on recent state political issues were also included, which you can read about at the link.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. So there is still 41% of Qlders approving of Campbell Newman.

    Is Queensland where all the old masochists go to die?

  2. Given that the poll was conducted from April through to June, it is very probably that the Rudd factor hasn’t been comprehensively factored in this poll.

    In other words, the decline is almost entirely the doing of Newman’s own government which seems to get worse on each passing day. I rather suspect the results of the June month, for example, are somewhat more negative that those polled in April and May.

  3. I suspect this poll has been very kind to the LNP. That KAP figure is no where near where other Qld state polls have it and they haven’t included Palmer’s party in the voting intentions

  4. Newman is haemorrhaging over the 41% pay rise he announced and then went on holiday.

    His minions stock answers are not working. Peter Wellington has called for a new election so Qld can get a proper Premier.

  5. Prime Minister Rudd gets on well with Bob Katter and if Katter gives [preferences to Labor in queeensland the labor party will win up to 8 seats and win the federal election.The only chance the Liberal party has is if they dump Abbott and put in Turnbull

  6. William Bowe,
    If this poll was taken before the pay hike and before the Rudd ascendancy perhaps this should have been given a mention above.

  7. 5

    Would the Turnbull really significantly increase popularity in Queensland, outside inner-Brisbane?

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