I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
BoerWar
Early 1990s. Loved living in Darwin. Would return in a heartbeat if housing/ cost of living not so utterly off the planet.
[pip courtney @pipcourtney 11m
@abclandline Sunday @AnnaVidot talks 2 new ag minister Joel Fitzgibbon. He says ag’s a ‘sexy’ portfolio & one he’s always wanted #ABC1 ]
Duh?
lizzie@2834
Time Kev and team went for their throats.
Tricot
She held a presser this afternoon confirming she would stand, after she did Keogh withdrew.
alias
early-late seventies for a stint and then mid eighties stint.
I thought you were in NT now BoerWar? Or perhaps I misunderstood you on a previous occasion?
[Time Kev and team went for their throats.]
Three years too late, unfortunately. Just heard Albo eating the shit sandwich saying we will implement anything the Coroner suggests. Seems like they want to kill it off not attack on it.
First home owner grants is another federal scheme implemented by states. Its abuses are prosecuted by the state
Tricot
[I had heard the other guy wasn’t going to stand and that she would make her decision “tomorrow” – meaning Friday. So, I wondered if she had, in fact, said yes.
Seems not yet.
]
Looks like she has said yes.
[MacTiernan to stand for Perth federal seat
Nominations for the candidacy closed at midday and Ms MacTiernan has since confirmed her successful nomination.
It is understood that lawyer Matt Keogh withdrew his nomination for the position.
When announcing her successful nomination Ms MacTiernan called for a federal government structure that stood up for the needs of WA.
“I reckon I’m the one to do that,” she said.
“I honestly think that out there in punter land they are so over the politics of personality, people now want to talk about the issues… and I say bring it on.”]
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/mactiernan-to-stand-for-perth-federal-seat-20130704-2pduj.html#ixzz2Y3oHACPC
[From death threats to abusive phone calls, texts and emails – this woman says she has endured only the tip of the iceburg when it came to the hate that was aimed at her husband since making an agreement with Julia Gillard.
His announcement not to contest the next Federal Election means Tony Windsor won’t be tackling another election campaign, nor potentially another term in Parliament, allowing them now to be able to focus on his health, the farm and the family.
Health wise, it’s early days, and Lyn says they are hoping it doesn’t end up being too serious. They will begin further investigations over the coming week to get a better idea of what is happening.
Lyn says it was a humbling experience to be in Canberra with Tony for his announcement. She said even the security guards and cleaners – who Tony clearly sees regularly – were crying and hugging and saying how much they’ll miss him in the halls of Parliament House. Lyn said this, in particular, brought it home to her as to what high regard he is held in in Canberra.]
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/06/28/3791858.htm?site=newengland
BW – because they panicked over the bad publicity and didn’t get the full story. Had they rung me I’d have told them how to handle it (LOL) as I was telling everybody who spoke to me about it in Hervey Bay. Not everyone in Canberra has that sort of “practical” experience.
alias
No problems at all about the profile. Apart from what seems a daffy exterior she is one astute politician.
She built the new rail line here to Mandurah with her political nous.
When she said she was flogging a dead horse in the State elections carrying the fight to the more traditional Labor areas, and even she could not sell the message, was about the time I thought Labor might be on a hiding to nothing with JG.
I am sure Alannah would have loved to see a returned Labor government with JGPM but after you knock on enough doors around so-say “friendly” Labor suburbs, you get the vibes that it is not going to happen.
I also believe if she does not run, it is because she might have some misgivings even at this stage.
I hope not.
She has already done a hard Federal gig and maybe once is enough.
Trouble is, I wonder if Labor has anyone else? That is, of of similar stature?
[vexnews @vexnews 1m
Clive Palmer may be planning to launch an Australian newspaper, lodging a trade mark for ‘The Australian Times’ http://bit.ly/14PlMYa #aus… ]
Ain’t money a wonderful thang.
sw 2833
I will enjoy that when it happens. Rudd had better win this election. 👿
ruawake@2857
I had a quick look at that Coroners’ report and didn’t see much for the Fed Govt to worry about.
You may be right, but it didn’t really work before.
Ah Revenge is sweet 👿
@vexnews: Clive Palmer may be planning to launch an Australian newspaper, lodging a trade mark for ‘The Australian Times’ http://t.co/Udz6ENN9ua #aus…
Clive is always busy with some new scheme it seems.
[Mining magnate and political party leader Clive Palmer may be planning to launch an Australian newspaper, after this week lodging a trade mark for ‘The Australian Times’.
On Monday, billionaire Palmer lodged an Australian trade mark application for a traditional-looking masthead for The Australian Times]
Lizzie
Ha you beat me to it this time 😆
Many thanks rua and Poroti
That is one more big plus for Labor here.
Such is the speed of the bush telegraph that nothing on ABC or any of the commercials as yet that I have picked up.
PB is worth its weight in gold.
Tricot
From a great distance and without knowing too much about her, it seems to me that Alanna has a lot of “character”. We need more of those in politics.
Boerwar, alias
Alice Springs mid 80s. Darwin late 90s-00s.
Could live in Darwin forever – certainly more relaxing! Also think probably I met about half of the 25 MPs (including being a reasonable acquaintance through family and church of one Minister I tried to help [unsuccessfully] unseat!). But in general they were pretty helpful, almost more like local councillors for their tiny electorates.
zoomster
Eddie is ‘safe’? No, he’s been expelled, finally.
As to your question as to whether any ALP people have been found guilty yet, then the answer is yes. One C Thomson, had findings against him on 152 charges after the 1100 page FWC investigation. Whatever the outcome of the 170-odd criminal charges, he should have been expelled a looong time ago. The federal leadership protected him for factional solidarity reasons.
guytaur
My first win of the year!!
I was the one who always came second in sprints 🙂
[Murdoch might finally be undone by nasty secret taping…]
🙂 🙂 🙂
@guardian: Egypt revolution: new president to be sworn in – live updates: http://t.co/hebrI3nG3e
@GuardianAus: Asylum seeker children moved off Manus Island: http://t.co/G6jVz6ak5J
@GuardianAus: Bill Shorten vows no delay in school funding reform: http://t.co/A8uXj3eV06
Lizzie
Enjoy. A win can be as rare as hens teeth in this life
Why did Rudd dump on Garrett?
Jealousy and fear, I suspect. Garrett had the potential to a very well-respected and popular Minister, and possible future PM material. Better to damage him early.
Puff
[I will enjoy that when it happens. Rudd had better win this election.]
Are you in the last stage of grieving? You actually used Rudd’s name rather than referring to him as “termite”.
Wow JC finding CT guilty is a bit much. Read vexnews to see what it really consists of. On the charges laid against CT then Tony Abbott with his “charity ride” expense claims should be considered guilty of far worse! Time to stand down Mr Abbott!
Lizzie
She will be a real addition provided she is given something useful to do.
Sorry – Freudian slip JV calling you JC!
guytaur
Please believe I appreciate your posts. Have a suspicion we follow the same peeps.
bemused
Rudd has to ignore the past, it will be too easy for the Libs and media to bog him down.
Just keep on about the future of our great country etc. Yep the past happened but it is the future we the voters want us to concentrate on.
This will skewer the Libs, who only have their past dodgy record to campaign on.
Rocket Rocket
I’m the same. Darwin was the most magical time of my life, I think.
You’re absolutely right about NT politics. Sadly, often the standard of personnel is at or below municipal politics, though there are some shining exceptions.
Where are you now? I’m in Melbourne. Still find winters very hard going.
Puff
BTW I don’t think Garrett would ever have made PM.
[After one saved my life I became a true believer in Earth Leakage Circuit Breakers (ELCB’s) .Every home should have them.
I agree.
I must have one installed…]
An electrician installed one in our house about 5 years ago at his suggestion. However, he said it didn’t include the lighting circuit/s for some reason.
Nowadays they are mandatory in new houses.
[@guardian: Egypt revolution: new president to be sworn in – live updates:]
How do you swear in a President when the military has suspended the country’s constitution?
[George Bludger @GeorgeBludger 8s
Breaking: Abbott counterchallenges Rudd to see who can pack 100 apples in a box fastest at the same time as filleting a fish…]
😆
Bemused 2781
Oh Rudd has learned, is fortifying himself in PM position starting just days after being elected Leader. Would have thought he had more important things to think about.
He showed himself an utter worm by praising Julia—for achievements as his Deputy! The last three years hadn’t happened in his mind! That is an insight into a sick mind, a mind sick with ego who only has thought for “I”
If I wasn’t abstaining from voting I might well cast a vote for the LNP in the HoR! The more time he has in the PM position the more damage will be done when he has to be removed as eventually he will have to be.
In the PB lounge it seems I am not alone in being a Darwin “tragic” .
Well Well
@newscomauHQ: Liberal ‘stutter’ ad sparks outrage from people with the condition #auspol: http://t.co/FSFpQa9doq @drpiotrowski http://t.co/r6z3uzprnk
Maybe the LNP would do well to learn political correctness.
Of course I think the Catholic Church would appoint a transgender person as Pope first.
[Oh Rudd has learned, is fortifying himself in PM position starting just days after being elected Leader. Would have thought he had more important things to think about.]
If there is a big swing against Labor in NSW because of the state Labor corruption issues then Rudd won’t be able to win.
Regarding Circuit breakers/Safety Switches Queensland’s previous ALP Govt. legislated mandatory placement as part of the contract to sell a pre-owned home in order to bring older homes up to a similar standard to new homes.
alias – yes also Melbourne – waiting for this storm. I’ve done Cyclone-like preparations, but am niw beginning to think that it was windier a few hours ago!!
I remember meeting Terry Mills just after he had left his school principal job and won a by-election. I felt sorry for him recently when he first successfully defended a leadership challenge, then got knifed when he was overseas, despite having been the one who got the CLP back after Labor’s 11 years.
ruawake@2883
Well that would be nice if it happened.
But the Libs won’t let it die so I feel it is best to go on the offensive but not get bogged down with it. Give ’em a good biff and then move on.
Poroti
Just remind me – are you there now? Or hankering for a return, like the rest of us?
zoomster
Della Bosca on the Drum seems to agree with you on intervention
Joe Hockey was starting to sweat , when he was asked about it ?
political animal@2889
You are such a cheery soul. I just love your posts. :kiss:
2890 – poroti – You too!
I’m almost tearing up now – it was such a lovely time for our family.