I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
I used to work for Impaja TV and CAAMA in Alice. Nice while I was there but glad to move back to Sydney.
Rocket Rocket
Terry Mills looked to be an interesting character, though I have lost touch with NT politics, and was only a casual observer of these recent events.
Extraordinary the way the CLP scooped up the bush vote in the last election.
When I left in 1995, the prospect of Labor winning office seemed remote. Clare Martin had just won Marshall Perron’s old seat and seemed likely to go for the leadership. Sad that she didn’t have better advisers around her, or she might be still there today as a long-serving popular chief minister.
I find it remarkable in the cooler conditions , Hockey still gets covered in lather of sweat
Ahhhh all this talk of Darwin when it is ten degrees, pouring and blowing a gale! I have never lived there, but visit at least once most years. One day I will live there!
Great Political Animal – your stated vote for Abbott (LNP in HOR) over Rudd shows your “Julia” talk to be so much “huff and puff”. She (JG) shows up your shallowness.
Tricot.. Very intersting on MacTiernan. She’d have to be odds on to hold the seat for Labor wouldn’t she? She has such charisma, it seemed to me. I must look at the Centrebet individual seat odds to see if they have moved.
BoerWar.. And you’re now in Melbourne? Or is it out east in Gippsland? Sorry I’m a bit blur, as the Asians say.
alias
I’m a hankering. Try to get up there when I can though. Pig out at the Magic Wok , a few beers at Humpty Doo , a swim and BBQ at Berry Springs and an all day trip up the Adelaide river. Heaven 🙂
[Ahhhh all this talk of Darwin when it is ten degrees, pouring and blowing a gale!]
22c on the Sunshine Coast at the moment. 😛
Yes Poroti.. it is heaven. God’s own country.
Ruawake.. Alice is a stunning place. Only ever made brief visits there but a world apart from Darwin, of course. The two couldn’t be more different. Interesting that the NT now has a chief minister representing Alice Springs. Those old complaints about the Darwin-centric government may finally be heeded.
ruawake – yes Alice is hard work, no matter what. And I was back there a few years ago and was leaving a function near Ross Park on the east side of town, planning to walk back to my accommodation at night (through the streets on the east side of the Todd). My hosts said “No it is too dangerous” which I found amazing, and sad.
ruawake
[22c on the Sunshine Coast at the moment. 😛 ]
Perth minimum temperatures forecast for the next 4 days Brrrrr 3, 2, 4, 3.
ausdavo
[Great Political Animal – your stated vote for Abbott (LNP in HOR) over Rudd shows your “Julia” talk to be so much “huff and puff”. She (JG) shows up your shallowness.]
Spot on!
[For a start, you counsel against letting “anyone associated in any way with the present NSW branch to make the decisions”. But then you rail against the Feds over-riding party (presumably NSW) processes be over-ridden.]
Yes, because I’m pointing out a contradiction.
If you’re over riding NSW, have the courage to over ride NSW. Don’t pretend you’re being democratic.
So it’s either/or — you either run it through the processes or you impose it. You don’t impose it and then run it through the processes.
As you say, can’t have it both ways.
I’m not sure why this is being rushed, particularly as none of the ‘reforms’ seem particularly urgent (are property developers running for preselection anywhere at present? Do we have anyone convicted of corruption who needs to be kicked out of the party?)
So —
Why not set up an independent panel to work out what needs to be changed in NSW, who will take submissions from members and then make their report to National Conference?
Rudd can use his authority there – as he has before – to insist that the recommendations are supported.
In the meantime, appoint administrators to run the NSW branch.
MacTiernan seems to me to be correct on this.
[“I honestly think that out there in punter land they are so over the politics of personality, people now want to talk about the issues… and I say bring it on.”]
The Libs plan A, B and C involves personality politics.
alias
Well I had a part in the 1997 landslide loss, and I left in 2000 which must have helped them! I knew Clare (via our children) and was stunned whe shen won in 2001 but not surprised she didn’t want to stay in politics forever. It was funny meeting her alo because she had run the NT 730 Report when we lived in Alice Springs.
My fondest Darwin memories:
Free jazz concerts on a Sunday in front of the Casino; a Yothu Yindi concert in the same place – (even some hard-core CLP functionaries there were moved and seemed to repent at their shameful race politics).
Like Poroti, a quick trip down to Berry Springs for a swim, or with more time, to Florence Falls in Litchfield National Park. Sunset markets of course on Mindil beach before it became so huge – and a laksa at Parap markets on a Saturday morning. Happily, they are still small enough to be enjoyable.
Speaking of laksa, the Rendezvous cafe in the Smith St mall was a must-eat, and the place is still going strong, though under new management. For a splurge, who could go past Hanuman, though sadly success seems to have killed the magic there.
I should stop before I book a flight.
[BREAKING: #LIBSpill !!
In a brazen move a pamphlet has challenged Tony Abbott to LNP leadership.
Pamphlet happy to front NPC]
alias
As you know, nothing is certain in politics in a two horse race, but yes, and don’t know if other Perthies agree, she must have a good chance of winning.
The problem with the electorate is that the demographics are changing a bit. Few more upwardly-mobile Young Liberal types than before.
William was kind enough to overlay the 5 State seats and I think 3 of these went to Labor and two to the conservatives. Lisa Baker who owns one of these seats for Labor, had a significant majority cut back in May.
However, that was May, with full on hate for Gillard going full steam, and Barnett making promises he has not kept and had no intention of keeping.
The West called Barnett to account the morning openly stating the “wheels had fallen off” the Barnett bus.
Whether this will translate into Labor votes is yet to seen. But, I do feel that Alannah will be as good a candidate as Labor could expect at any time.
She will have to do the hard yards but I sense she could win it.
She will get my vote for what it is worth.
j.v.
[As to your question as to whether any ALP people have been found guilty yet, then the answer is yes. One C Thomson, had findings against him on 152 charges after the 1100 page FWC investigation.]
So he’s in jail, then? And so is Eddie?
If neither of them are, they don’t met the criteria of the intervention and thus would not be expelled under the proposed rules.
And, by the logic of the NSW intervention, the case seems to be stronger for banning unionists from standing for preselection than for banning property developers.
alias and RR
Tracey wrecked all our earthly possessions.
zoomster
[In the meantime, appoint administrators to run the NSW branch.]
You mean in the couple of months before the election!
I am sure that would work.
Interesting Rocket Rocket.
I found Clare Martin a pretty decent type. She copped a fair bit of flak when she defected from ABC radio (I think it was at the time) to join the ALP and run for Parliament. She might have been hosting the morning programme at the time? Perhaps not. My memory fades. In any case, all sorts of claims of conflict of interest during the period when Brian Ede was trying to win her across, and she was still working as a journalist.
Anyway, she seems to have moved onto other things, and is not embittered by what was a very tough exit.
alias
‘Extraordinary the way the CLP scooped up the bush vote in the last election.’
Not really. I had been warning Laborites for ages. They took the Indigenous vote for granted and paid the price.
Deaf vote subtractors.
Evening all.
Fantastic news about MacTiernan. She is a very good campaigner (she did well in Canning in 2010) and is currently Mayor of a local government which includes parts of the Perth electorate.
tbw
‘The Disgusting Termite who Can’t be Trusted as Far as He Could Toss a Turd’ is too long to type sometimes, so I use the Termite’s name.
As I said before, this is not grief, this is anger. There are no stages to anger.
alias
Outdoor concerts in general – went to some lovely DSO ones with fireworks. Once found us sitting next to CM Dennis Burke and family!
Fish and chips on Stokes Wharf on Friday night.
Swimming in 30 degree water at Casuarina beach (before box jellyfish come in October, thought it is always a bit dangerous!)
Mindil Beach Markets – food, sunset, didgeridoos, stalls.
Berry Springs, except for those “bitey” fish!
Buley Rockholes – the best
Wnagi Falls – and Gunlom (in Kakadu, only got there once)
– Tourism NT should be paying us!
twobobs
OK then, let’s leave the people who created the problem to run the joint a bit longer.
As I said, this stuff is contradictory. Either what’s happening in NSW needs to be fixed urgently – in which case, a brave and noble leader would fix it – or it can wait.
If it can wait, say it’s all going to happen after the election, rather than running around slapping on bandages and hoping no one will smell the rotting tissue beneath.
Northern Territorians —
my grandmother was the first white woman in Katherine.
Grandpa told her he had built her the best house in K. (and he had). When she saw it, she burst into tears.
BoerWar
Didn’t realise you were there for Tracy. Shocking.
I was there for the 20th anniversary, so a lot of discussion, a lot of memories. Many though simply wanted to forget; couldn’t face the painful memories.
The NT Museum still has that extraordinary exhibit where you enter a darkened room and hear that recording of the choir singing in the Catholic cathedral just as the cyclone was starting to wreak its havoc.
I met plenty who simply couldn’t stand there and listen. Tough types who teared up at the mention of Tracy.
Following Kevin Bonham’s earlier post I checked out the current odds in the seat of Brisbane.
LNP $1.35 ALP $2.90
Given the popularity of Rudd in QLD and the closeness of the seat last time that would have to be an over for the ALP wouldn’t it?
Remember you read this on PB first yesterday:
[Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey has accused Kevin Rudd of politicising the Treasury, describing the Prime Minister’s recruitment of a senior official as “a joke” and “wrong on so many fronts”.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-attacks-kevin-rudd-for-hiring-treasury-official-20130704-2pdyv.html#ixzz2Y40rBr2k
Sooo predictable!
It seems to me that the NSW intervention has resurrected the ICAC shit again.
The only sensible reason for doing this now is to stop it during an election campaign, which indicates to me a later election.
Boerwar
Tracey wrecked all our earthly possessions.
Oh! I remember when it looked like Thelma (99) was going to hit bigtime and looking at our elevated, incredibly flimsy, house and thinking it was all going to be shredded. It certainly made you think about what you valued.
Interstingly I think research showewd that those who were allowed to stay after Tracy did best, those who returned next best and those who never came back did worst psychologically. Last group included Rosemary Church who was 5 years old I think – though she did come back in her twenties to do the TV news, before being “drafted” by CNN.
[Given the popularity of Rudd in QLD and the closeness of the seat last time that would have to be an over for the ALP wouldn’t it?]
Remember though, that the incumbent isn’t a first termer. She’s an experienced MP with many successful election campaigns under her belt.
Tricot
Centrebet has Labor $1.40 with LNP at $2.70. Pretty sure that has turned around a lot, and it would have be the MacTiernan factor.
Re Alannah in Perth Sportsbet have her at $1.25, the only other ALP seat favoured is Freeo at $1.15 then out to Swan at $6.00.
Interestingly for winning Government LNP $1.22 ALP $4.00 (but coming down).
Predicted seat breakdown LNP over 100 is the favourite at $3.00 with ALP at 51 to 60 $3.00 the fav on the other side.
Finally election date Aug 24 $1.60 next best Aug 31 $4.00 and then Oct 19 $7.00.
There are some great Arbitrage opportunities available given the likely movements over the next few weeks!
alias
[. For a splurge, who could go past Hanuman, though sadly success seems to have killed the magic there]
Went there a couple of times, luckily was not paying , best satays eva. Later they moved down the other end of Mitchell St and the flow of praise from the locals seemed to dry up.
I had forgotten about the lovely Rosemary Church. She and her boyfriend lobbed in Darwin during my time, after backpacking in Europe, and she picked up a job at the new Australia Television network, I believe. Very talented. CNN or similar was always going to poach her.
And to add salt to the wounds for the Emperor, Abbott is not going to fund any rail projects in WA from Commonwealth money – should he be able to make such an offer.
So the light railway, whose feasibility was paid for by Labor, together with lot of glossies, looks set for the rubbish bin, as does the Liberal’s promise of rail to the airport as does the promise to Ellenbrook from two elections ago.
As was said at the election here in May while Labor builds railways, the Liberals don’t know how to, or close them.
So much for the Conservative Paradise here in the West.
I have been out of the loop today, so apologies if already discussed. Wtf is wrong with the frickin fibs. They are having a go at Julie Collins because she stutters!!
http://youtu.be/xqVMbXOI7_U
And Nightcliff were ripped off of a footy Premiership by Tracy. The NTFL season was cancelled, but I think in the end they restarted later in the wet and called it the NTFA – Nightcliff won, but it isn’t counted as a “real” Preemiership, their last is thus 64-65.
Poroti
Absolutely right on Hanuman. We went to the new Mitchell St premises on my first time back in 20 years and found it to be a complete disappointment.
zoomster
Didn’t they say that work was beginning straight away and that the National Executive would be involved and that there was not enough time before the election to certify the changes so the results would be taken to the next State Conference.
Truly you love playing the role of contrarian.
victoria:
I just saw that. I wasn’t aware Collins had a stutter.
@Victoria/2939
Perhaps it shows they are not only loosing it, but loosing the election?
alias RR
Our stuff was on the wharf. Good bye stuff. We were in Victoria. Lucky us. We avoided any and all compensation and assistance schemes. We just regarded ourselves as being fortunate and just accepted the good fortune with grace. Lots of mates suffered. In particular I recall about a year after Tracey. We were well inland, having dinner at our place with someone who had had her house ripped to bits around her ears.
Anyway, dinner chez nous. It was a still evening and a breeze sprang up, not a large breeze, just a gentle breeze.
She went to pieces.
[ They are having a go at Julie Collins because she stutters!!]
Julie Collins does not stutter, she forgot the term stakeholders. The stupid L-NP ad makes it look like she stutters, this is the issue.
Abbott just lost the speech impaired vote thanks to Mr Credlin.
Puff
[‘The Disgusting Termite who Can’t be Trusted as Far as He Could Toss a Turd’ is too long to type sometimes, so I use the Termite’s name.
As I said before, this is not grief, this is anger. There are no stages to anger.]
I thought you were better than that but apparently I was wrong.
http://www.6pr.com.au/blogs/6pr-perth-blog/no-answer-on-debate/20130704-2pdti.html
The man who may be Treasurer in a few months, Joe Hockey, seemingly does not understand the machinations of movements in the Australian dollar and the fact that it floats up and down according to market trends and fundamental news on the economy. It is either that or he is using the depreciation of the Australian dollar exchange rate to make cheap political points in talking down confidence in the economy.
Mr Hockey this morning said that the depreciation of the Australian dollar is having an “immediate negative impact” on business confidence and that it was evidence of the volatility in the economy under Labor.
Somewhat paradoxically, Mr Hockey noted, “whilst it is good that the Australian dollar comes down for business, particularly for business that is involved in exports, the speed with which it comes down adds to the volatility of the Australian economy. There is no doubt about that”.
It is not clear whether Mr Hockey thinks the floating exchange rate is still a good idea, especially when it goes up and down according to fundamental news on the economy, markets and risks.
None less than the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, is welcoming the recent Australian dollar movement, noting that the floating exchange rate has served Australia well over the past 30 years, even if it occasional moves away from what might be termed fair value.
readmore
Rocket Rocket
[Fish and chips on Stokes Wharf on Friday night.]
Damn, forgot about sitting on the Wharf in the evening eating the best value “waterfront” food in the nation. It was where I learnt to hate Victorians , Qlders and South Australians. Come tourist season the car park would be chocka with “Victoria the Place To Be” etc number plates . No room for the “locals” 😆
Very fortunate BoerWar
What became of the house you had been living in? Did it survive?