I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
Ah! Mitchell Street. Spent a night there in a brothel with my wife, having been sent there by an NT police sergeant.
Could only happen in Darwin.
[The stupid L-NP ad makes it look like she stutters, this is the issue.]
OMG that’s even worse then!
WTF?
alias
We were in transit from Nhulunbuy to Victoria River Downs so we had no house. After Tracey we had no belongings either.
I rather liked it.
Bemused 2899
No answer on any of the issues I raised. When Rudd has to be removed I look forward to your posts on the subject 🙂
[Liam Hogan @liamvhogan 10h
There is cheering in the streets as crowds watch Federal ALP tanks topple a statue of Graham Richardson on Sussex St]
Ho-ho. Is Rudd seriously trying to smash the Richo machine, which has just brought him back to the leadership? Or is this all just cosmetics?
P
‘Or is this all just cosmetics?’
How rhetorical questionment.
Alan Kohler was a newspaper reporter in Darwin when Tracy hit, and I remember an excellent article he wrote on the 20th anniversary. Article was just before internet boom so I can’t find it online. I think he and his mates were sheltering under a table in the bathroom, with one guy in the bath. One of them had a dog, and the dog “deserted” the unter-tablers and hopped in the bath instead.
Remember most hire cars have Vic plates. Just cos they DO have to escape the weather does not mean they all drove their cars. 😆
Been this track a few times……mark down 3 seats for Labor, regardless of the betting market at the moment.
If the sun shines brightly, Hasluck might start to look promising and after this we are talking “landslides” to Labor in WA terms.
The election is not going to be won and lost in the West.
This is not a Labor friendly State, though the paradox is that quite often there is a State Labor government. I suspect as a counter weight to the Federal Libs.
Interesting side light is that there will be two Federal elections before the next State election due in 2017.
Expect Barnett to be long gone.
These dynamics are why our friend Porter opted out of State politics. He has an inkling the runes for the conservatives may not be all that good in 2017 State- wise.
On the other hand, day by day, the Federal ship is looking somewhat more vulnerable too for his side of politics.
ausdavo
Never said I would, said it might be what I would do just to minimise damage to the Party.
ru
The fibs are just plain nasty!
2938
The new ALP Perth Candidate should help with hurting the Liberals with their no urban PT funding, that Hockey actually admitted to being because they did not want to employ the public servants to scrutinise the funding proposals.
If the Coalition loose this election, they will hopefully decide that their opposition to Commonwealth PT funding cost them seats and they have to drop it.
The brothel story sounds utterly intriguing BoerWar, and as you say, very Darwin.
What were you doing in Nhulunbuy? Something to do with the bauxite mine? I had a couple of trips over there to Yirrkala. Charming part of the world.
2948
post
this story should be headline on the news, people should
know who and what they are voting for
Boerwar
“We were in transit from Nhulunbuy to Victoria River Downs so we had no house. After Tracey we had no belongings either. I rather liked it.”
WHATTTTT! I suppose you told them you had lost all your identification papers!
Undocumented non-persons!!!
You should have put on an Indonesian fishing boat (possibly in short supply after cyclone) and been towed to Java.
my say
joe Hockey is not up to the job of treasurer
Abbott “unavailable” for 7.30 tonight. Asked back for next week. Sales says “will keep you posted”.
[Is Rudd seriously trying to smash the Richo machine, which has just brought him back to the leadership? Or is this all just cosmetics?]
Part of winning votes in western Sydney, not about party reform.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4799776.html
Interesting RR
I never knew Alan Kohler worked in Darwin. I’d love to read that account to which you refer but sadly much of this type of stuff is lost, effectively. It’s surprising how many well known journalists and lawyers for that matter have done some time up there.
two bobs worth
Don’t worry darling, I won’t be voting. I want nothing to do with the disaster looming not all that far down the track. Why none of you can even consider what will happen when Rudd has to be removed again I don’t know. Euphoria that “your boy” finally overthrew that bitch? Lack of mental reasoning?
alias
Chalky at Nhulunbuy.
the link is on twitter, vic,
would like to link to a mp but don’t know how to do that
???
alias RR
I reckon around three quarters of Australia has spent time up in the Top End. Just Passing Through. We spent ten years there.
A “chalky” is a teacher I guess. Very intersting. Some of Dr Yunupingu’s teaching colleagues spoke during the service. I imagine you watched it.
PA
“Darling”? Do try harder!
political animal
Posted Thursday, July 4, 2013 at 6:51 pm | Permalink
two bobs worth
Don’t worry darling, I won’t be voting
======================================================
EVERY VOTE COUNTS,, SO U ARE VOTING MY PENSION AWAY THEN
AND YOUR MUMS just think if we where one mp short and need one vote that could be u
its easy to say stuff like that PA rolls off the tongue very easy ,, but think of the consequences.
———————
if its GOOD ENOUGH FOR JULIA TO VOTE FOR HER OWN PARTY ITs SHOULD BE GGOD ENOUGH FOR U stop letting the side down
————————————————
alias
I did a year team teaching with Galluruy Yunupingu. Consequently, spent time camping out on his homeland centre.
I have very fond memories. Some funny things happened.
We were down at the Wallaby Beach outdoor mining greasy/movies (literally on the beach) when the guys at the front got up and started to move off. Loud cries of ‘Sit down you bastards!’ got the rather injured replies, ‘There’s an effin croc after us!’
alias
Missed it. That was M. I worked with Galleruy, his older brother.
Well I notice the other day that a guy in Darwin jokingly advertised to rent a cardboard box in his living room for $50 a week …and got serious inquiries.
Clarke and Dawe
Boerwar
I loved enrolling to vote in NT.
“Fill in your address, or else mark on this map of the electorate approximately where you most often sleep at night”
And I swear that the radio news on election day in 1987 in Alice Springs opened with “The CLP have firmed as favourites to win today’s election, with bookmakers saying they are likely to win at least 20 of the 25 seats in the Assembly” (they won 16)
RR
Good point. It is also a sore point. I have just one identity document relating to my birth in the NEI. As I understand it, the NEI archives generally rotted in Indonesia. The result is that my connections to bureaucratic existence are very, very tenuous.
That Lib ad about Collins really does sink to lows even I wouldn’t have thought them capable of. Seriously have none of those dipshits even seen their leader speak? Um er ah, um er ah. The grub takes 20 seconds to think of the next word in his litany of lies. Even his rote learnt three word slogans take forever to get out.
“So what is the context Mr Abbott?” “Mr Abbott, you’re not saying anything…”
Fantastic story BoerWar.
A sly one Galarrwuy, I think. Rather different to his late brother.
You can watch the funeral on i-View if you have enough bandwidth to get that. Very evocative of that part of the world. Well worth watching.
The funeral is one of the “featured” programmes across the top. You just click the arrow to the right and it comes up after a couple of clicks.
The ripples from Cyclone Tracy reached NZ.Apart from taking in many families from Darwin this kiwi duo wrote a hit song mourning the event. For those who were up there at the time the clip will bring back many memories.
[CycloneTracy 1974 (Santa Never Made It Into Darwin) ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD0DRmWQ65Y
mtbw
I am better than someone who applauds that disgrace of a human being. If he is what it takes to get the rednecks to vote for the ALP, then use him and lose him I say.
RR
About the only useful contribution I ever made to democracy was, as a volunteer, transporter, translater and general factotum, to enable hundreds of Indigenous voters to cast a vote in the first NT election.
The practical result was that Goff Letts, who had been touted as the Territory’s first chief minister, lost and Jack Doolan, sometime Korean War vet, sometime stealer of corrugated iron from the Katherine meat works in order to build shacks for Aborigines, and rather consistent drunk, won the seat.
Forgive my questions BoerWar, but you were born in what is now Indonesia before independence? Whereabouts?
[The grub takes 20 seconds to think of the next word in his litany of lies. ]
That’s not an attempt at thought, it’s an attempt at recollection. Everything he says, every image projected is carefully constructed by his minders and fed to him.
Denese
I am thinking beyond the next election and not liking what I see and not wanting to be part of it in any way.
If removing Rudd does as much damage this time as I think it will the Libs will be in for 3 terms.
RR
“Fill in your address, or else mark on this map of the electorate approximately where you most often sleep at night”
That is for the long grass mob.
zoomster@2913
You weren’t around then, but when the Federal Executive intervened in the affairs of the Victorian Branch, certain official of that Branch retained their positions and were employed to carry out the directions of the Federal Executive and it’s appointees.
I don’t see anyone pretending this is ‘democratic’. You seem to be confused.
It is being ‘rushed’ because there is an imminent election and it will be in the ALP’s electoral interests to have some runs on the board ASAP.
It’s not really hard to understand.
NBN Misses targets and fudges figures:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/government/albanese-to-release-nbn-rollout-targets/story-fn4htb9o-1226674192792
[But analysis of the NBN Co’s monthly “Ready for Service” documents suggests that the network builder could exceed that target and pass about 164,000 existing premises and about 45,000 new housing estates by the June 30 deadline.
The NBN Co’s “Ready for Service” document is released each month to show what suburbs and the number of premises scheduled to be passed by the fibre network.
Should the NBN Co hit those targets it will put progress of its rollout within the company’s revised target of passing between 190,000 to 220,000 homes by June 30, but still far less than the 341,000 target it was forced to downgrade in March.
However the NBN Co’s rollout figures also contain about 30,000 premises called “service class zero” which although contained in the fibre footprint, are not considered serviceable for another 12-18 months.]
140,000 Premises short of it’s August 2012 Corporate Plan.
Around 30,000 short of it’s new made up March downgraded numbers because they are now trying to pretend Class 0 premises who can’t get a service for another 12 months are “Ready for Service”.
NBN is a massive con.
alias
‘Forgive my questions BoerWar, but you were born in what is now Indonesia before independence? Whereabouts?’
1949. Dutch colonial miliary hospital in Tjimahi (subsequently spelled ‘Chimahi’ near ‘Bandoeng’, subsequently spelled ‘Bandung’). Dad was a lifer and a sergeant major in a KNIL AA regiment. My birth certificate has a little place on it for ‘wit’: ‘white’. So it’s official. It is an odd feeling having been born in a political entity that no longer exists.
[Puff
‘The Disgusting Termite who Can’t be Trusted as Far as He Could Toss a Turd’ is too long to type sometimes, so I use the Termite’s name.
As I said before, this is not grief, this is anger. There are no stages to anger.]
Actually, according to some experts there are. Opinions differ, but the following seem to be the most commonly used:
1. Annoyed
2. Frustrated
3. Infuriated
4. Hostile
Since last Wednesday your posts seem to have been a blend of all four.
Boerwar – The your contribution to NT politics was infinitely more successful than mine then.
Just told my family your croc story – they loved it!
We got the old station wagon stuck in water on the causeway crossing the East Alligator river on the way to the Gunbalunya Festival – not a pleasant experience.
Someone working for me who was sensibly waiting for the water to get even lower was sitting on the back of his ute watching (it was like a spectator sport – man v croc – though the crocs were downstream and unlikely to be able to get up the causeway with the water rushing over it!). His girlfriend said “Look at that bloody idiot in that station wagon” – he said, somewhat sheepishly “Ahh, that bloody idiot is my boss!”
MacTiernan on Ch10 news talking up public transport infrastructure for Perth’s outer suburbs.
Contrasts with Abbott comments today saying it’s a state responsibility. ARen’t the coalition promising to build some rail line in Sydney?
RR
Ah. I have seen people fishing off that causeway and had my camera ready but was disappointed.
Boerwar –
“Dutch colonial miliary hospital in Tjimahi (subsequently spelled ‘Chimahi’ near ‘Bandoeng’, subsequently spelled ‘Bandung.”
So I was right – we can tow you back to Indonesia after all.
NSW intervention is easy to understand—Rudd is fortifying his position.