I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
@Sean/2993
Stop lying, they passed the figures.
It’s passed the June Figures.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/nbn-meets-target-for-passing-207500-homes-20130704-2pdw3.html
“The revised target range was between 190,000 and 220,000 premises to be passed by fibre by June 30. About 93 per cent of NBN involved running fibre to the home, while the remaining 7 per cent, in remote rural and regional areas, uses wireless and satellite technology.”
BoerWar
I thought Indonesia declared independence in 1945? Indeed I was in Jakarta for the 50th anniversary celebrations in 1995. So how? What do you mean the entity no longer exists? Now that I think about, some countries did not recognise Indonesian independence, though Australia did so early, I seem to recall.
RR
‘So I was right – we can tow you back to Indonesia after all.’
In late 1949, my mother, pregnant, and I, were loaded onto a ship along with a lot of other refugee pregnant women and women with babies and toddlers for emergency transport back to Holland. Around 80 babies were born on the trip. So, yes, I have been on a refugee boat. So, now you know why the Indonesians aren’t taking any refugees back.
So, because I am angry and appalled at the actions of Rudd and the treatment of Prime Minister Julia Gillard, I have emotional problems, are you saying? How sexistment!
I do not see the fact that the Termite might win an election as any reason to whitewash what he did, nor for me to get on the Rudd Showboat.
Boerwar
[Dutch colonial miliary hospital in Tjimahi (subsequently spelled ‘Chimahi’ near ‘Bandoeng’, subsequently spelled ‘Bandung’). ]
A former workmate’s father in law was in the Dutch/Netherlands Colonial Service. First in Surinam and then the NEI before being evacuated to W.A. . The chap had gone completely “native” when it came to food and was a sambal “fiend” . His future son in law, a good Liverpool Irish chip buttie chap, suffered terribly when visiting during the wooing phase 🙂
alias
I thought Indonesia declared independence in 1945?
I think that was a part of Japan’s “cunning plan” – to say that Indonesia and other places had been “liberated” from their colonial rulers, the “true” aim of Japan’s war. Of course the Netherlands thought otherwise, and wanted “back in”.
[Stop lying, they passed the figures.]
Have you read page 34 of the 2012 NBN corp plan yet or are you still being a moron?
alias
‘BoerWar
I thought Indonesia declared independence in 1945? Indeed I was in Jakarta for the 50th anniversary celebrations in 1995. So how? What do you mean the entity no longer exists? Now that I think about, some countries did not recognise Indonesian independence, though Australia did so early, I seem to recall.’
The Indonesians used the collapse of the Japanese occupation in 1945 to declare independence. Their colonial masters begged to differ. So it took another five years and around 60,000 dead Indonesians, plus a threat to cut off Marshall Plan aid by the US, that convinced us Dutch to bugger off. The ‘official’ date is therefore not 1945. What a waste. IMHO, the Indonesians are quite right to go with the 1945 date.
[Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth 4h
And here’s audio and video of Menzies’s Jefferson Oration at Monticello, on this day 50 years ago, in 1963: http://auspol.info/122o7R1 ]
———————————————————
PA u know how much time I have invested in JG
here and else
my point is do u want all her hard work to be trashed by the liberals,, when thinking about things, we may do, or say,
we have to think things through to the consequences of our actions
first of all I was upset and beside my self,, my oh , said 1 hr after , this election is not about U its about our grandchildren,
I also had this amazing feeling of relief come off my shoulders,
then the next day a saw tweet from Tim saying Julia was well etc,, and I think that she now can enjoy her life
I was so anxious for her 24 hours a day,, one should have to put with what she experienced day in day out.
but the policies she gave us are for the future they will be with us all for ever.
PA do you want to be part of those policies keeping them in place or not
simple as that, really up to you.
======================================================
.
———————————————
Boerwar
I remember meeting someone whose Dutch parents had the foresight to see Hitler’s rise, and they left Holland before the war. Unfortunately for the Dutch East Indies, where they later ended up interned.
pa:
The federal intervention looks very much like the federal intervention you have when you aren’t having a federal intervention.
Window dressing.
I don’t usually do this, but Puff, go take a bex!
poroti
Very funny. Sambal. One of my uncles was a coloniaal from Surinam. He was conscripted in Holland, sent off to Surinam and was injured in a miltiary vehicle accident in the very first week of his service. This was around 60 years ago. He is still alive and has been on compo ever since. War costs can last a long, long time.
Sean Tisme
In relation to nbn roll out targets. WGAF?
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2925
Isn’t anger one of the stages of grief? 😉
RR
‘Boerwar
I remember meeting someone whose Dutch parents had the foresight to see Hitler’s rise, and they left Holland before the war. Unfortunately for the Dutch East Indies, where they later ended up interned.’
Mum, who suffered badly in the German occupation of Holland, and Dad, who did the Japanese tourist trip on the Burma Railway, used to have arguments, literally, about which was worst: the germans or the japanese.
[I do not see the fact that the Termite might win an election as any reason to whitewash what he did, nor for me to get on the Rudd Showboat.]
Well said, Puffy.
Believe it is Bemused.
The second, according to Kubler-Ross.
So three to go?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
Oh, golly. Before Fran gets to it: ‘Which was worser.’
puff no one should lecture it up to you.
but I invested as much time as you have since 2010
and it seems counter productive to me for lurkers
to be spitful about anything that’s happened
so I took the other road,
its not nice for Julia, so I made up my mind very quickly to get on board the positive side of life.
it make s one feel quite good , I am sure that’s the point JG is at,she has said get behind PmKR
what a lady she is ,[ just because it didn’t have with shoe on other foot} as my dad would of said,, two wrongs don’t make it right.
hope u join in soon,
You seem to have had a fascinating life BoerWar.
Writing your memoir I hope?
Have I got this right about the gentlemen’s game? Horvill, who stomped on someone’s head, was not guilty of stomping on someone’s head because he meant to stomp on some other body part?
Puff
Say whatever you like. Don’t take any notice of others. Getting anger out is healthier for you (and anyway, I’m enjoying your dragon breath!)
🙂
spur
isn’t that the put-down usually reserved for overwrought housewives in the 1950’s?
Rudd stirring up all that sexism against PMJG is just history, after a week, I see.
Sales of whitewash must be astronomical.
alias
[The second, according to Kubler-Ross]
Homer Simpson does Kubler-Ross.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6mh8SX_sXs
alias
Several hundred million people had fascinating lives in those days. War, rumours of war, displacement, economic destruction, death and mass psychological trauma were the norm. So many stories and so little paper.
A LIBERAL Party advertisement ridiculing new Kevin Rudd minister Julie Collins is “offensive” to stutterers, a sufferer of the condition has said.
The short video, posted on YouTube, shows Ms Collins stumbling over her words at a press conference and then she is mocked for being “one of the most senior” Labor ministers.
The advertisement has provoked outrage from those who say it’s unfair to depict stuttering as a sign for incompetence.
“People who stutter are not less intelligent than people who don’t,” said Diane Randall, 60, president of NSW stutter support group Speak Easy.
“To imply that is wrong,” she said. “You wouldn’t think in this enlightened age that people would be doing this.”]
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/liberal-party-8216stutter8217-advertisement-sparks-fury/story-fncynjr2-1226674469043#ixzz2Y4FGw92t
Well done Team Abbott, a nice own goal.
BW – interesting your background.
On a ship myself many years ago, another ship in the harbour, at the time was the, Oranje. she was hardly a refugee boat at the time!
Maybe the Johan van Oldenbarnevelt?
ROTFL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCOXX5wWmwM
Puffy
‘Sales of whitewash must be astronomical.’
Stick with it, but pls look after yourself. You are worth 20 Rudds.
[Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno 16m
Anyone notice the Pink Bats coroner recommends criminal prosecution against the employers of the workers killed on the job? Who’s to blame?]
Gee, let me think….
Honestly.
Rudd has hold hostage ALP supporters’ deep desire to defeat Rudd, the price being the whitewashing of his treachery.
Other people might not mind being used by this revolting man, but not this dragon.
Indonesia declared independence in 1945 but had to fight their d colonial masters for several years. The Dutch finally recognised Indonesian independence in late 1949.
Tricot
I finally ended up in Australia courtesy of the Johan. The MS Oranje’s story is below.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_Oranje
By coincidence, I did a return trip to Holland on a sister ship: the Flotto Lauro. (Not sure about the name.)
Uhlman just reminding us all that, under Rudd ver 1.0 ‘activity wss trumpeted as achievement’.
Indeed.
Boerwra
” Horvill, who stomped on someone’s head, was not guilty of stomping on someone’s head because he meant to stomp on some other body part?”
I’m sure I remember once hearing the late Frank Galbally saying he got someone off a murder charge because the witness said that the accused shot the deceased in the right side of the head, but the autopsy showed they were shot in the left side of the head. Thus the witness was unreliable!
spur212
Vote 1 Fred Dagg 😆
Rudd is certainly acting to character. We will no doubt get lots of grand announcements and stunts with limited substance. Pretty much what you get with Abbott. Collectively what did we do so wrong to deserve to have to choose between Rudd and Abbott?
RR
Justice works in mysterious ways. Especially for the wealthy.
dwh
Are you doing moral equivalence?
@Sean/3007
I did read the Corp Plan, still not sure why you need to resort to name calling in defense of your postings.
Boerwar I prefer not to. More like doing political equivalents.
One is an egomaniac and the other lacks moral ethics.
Very amusing Poroti
True, BoerWar, but that doesn’t mean your own story is not worth writing. On the contrary.
[UNDERDOGS want debates because they elevate them to parity with the leader in power.
While Kevin Rudd might be Prime Minister, he is the underdog in the current political kennel and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is the alpha hound.
Opinion surveys make that clear, despite a lift to Labor from Kevin’s comeback last week.
So Mr Rudd wants a head-to-head contest with Mr Abbott – outside Parliament and before the election – and Mr Abbott is refusing to oblige unless an election is called or Parliament recalled.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/we8217re-at-risk-of-a-debate-that8217s-kevin-rudd-v-kevin-rudd/story-fnh4jt60-1226674256423
Pretty reasonable observations from Malcolm Farr. So Abbott holds out, dismissing the debate stuff as a stunt, and where does that leave his opponent? Talking to himself at the NPC.
[Collectively what did we do so wrong to deserve to have to choose between Rudd and Abbott?]
Voters want personality rather than substance. This is where that gets you.
I am hopeful that a good dose of an Abbott govt will cure voters of their obsession with egotistical personality over understated, substantive achievement.
That argument by Malcolm Farr makes sense to some extent Confessions.
However, it ignores the fact that the public already have grave doubts about Abbott. He is negative. He talks in cheap slogans.
So refusing to show up for a debate just feeds into those doubts; it looks very weak, when he passes himself off as Mr Tough Guy.
The dynamics are crystal clear: Abbott doesn’t know where to put himself in this dramatically changed political landscape. So he goes into hiding.
zoidlord,
You called me a liar and then claim they met their targets despite reading the NBN 2012 corp plan?
two bobs worth@2942
zoomster is trying her level best to invent difficulties.
These things, by their nature, tend to be a bit messy.
As Abbott is too gutless to debate Rudd perhaps he could get the wife and kids to debate for him.