BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

Wherein Labor under Kevin Rudd bounces all the way back to hung parliamentary territory, at least for now.

I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.

I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).

Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.

It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,347 comments on “BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. For all the words, space, time, energy, prognostications, analysis, charts, polls, certainty and god only knows what..

    chucked away.

  2. Good morning Poll Bludgers or at least good evening here Leaving very early in the morning for Iceland

    A small plea could the Ruddsters please tone down their comments and at time gloating if they want the ALP voters who were Gillard supporters to come over willingly :devil:

    I think you know who you are without naming 😀

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Sophie Mirabella. Need one say any more?
    Fairfax going behind the paywall will limit our Dawn Patrol acivities – both posting and reading.
    Oh dear! Naughty Seppos?
    What a surprise!
    That didn’t take long did it? Your turn next, George!
    If you like pomposity read this Gerard Henderson contribution.
    Bruce Petty on the Opposition’s contribution to a kinder, gentler Parliament.

    A real beauty from David Pope on the remaking of Kevin.
    Pat Campbell with a good one on Rudd and education.
    Ron Tandberg portrays a rather nervous Abbott again.
    There’s a lot in this effort of David Rowe as he shows Abbott and Hockey realising that Plan A is all over.

  4. And from the Land of the Free –

    Ohio joins the conga line of suppressors of women’s rights.
    Some cartoons on the same subject in Texas.
    And further again on the subject the unbelievable Jim DeMint digs an even bigger hole for homself.
    Ed Schultz torches the Repugs on their response to the SCOTUS gay marriage decision.

  5. Good morning, Bludgers

    Fairfax has, it seems, finally discovered Eurozone reactions- or, more to the point, The Guardian’s report of Der Spiegel article’s outrage over mass USA spying. Not very “new” our “news”papers DOH! Typically Murdochian, The OO’s more concentrated on “US alarm”. Why go to either of them for yesterday’s News, when you can read up-to-date reportage in The G, HuffPost, Der Spiegel (& English translations of other Euro newspapers online.

    US actions spook European allies

    [Each embassy seemed to be a self-contained surveillance operation with its own name, according to The Guardian.]

    Mark Kenny has transferred his Abbott fan-club … I’d say “bitchiness”, but that would be insulting bitches … to Rudd. Not worth giving him the extra hit. Beware one-man show: warning for Labor

  6. Ha … updated bludger track now looks like a diagram of the queen or king in chess … 😉

    In the time I have been coming here, every slight uptick in the ALP primary/2PP has been met with someone posting The Narrrowing! followed by a variation of Now watch heads start exploding at Menzies House as Mr Rabbott starts copping some serious pressure!

    Here, the uptick has been so rapid and dramatic that The Narrrowing! would have seemed understated and it’s only now that some have begun to remember the second part about exploding heads and Mr Rabbott.

    I could be wrong — perhaps Mr Bonham or our lider maximo will correct me, but I don’t recall a positive shift in ALP support on this scale in a week since at least 2006 when Rudd took over for the first time, and maybe not even then. Can anyone recall its equal?

  7. Snowden applies for political asylum in Russia

    Vladmir Putin says US whistleblower can stay if he stops ‘bringing harm to our American partners’

    Translation: “When EdS has released ALL the documents he has; we Russians know ALL the details of ALL spying the USA has conducted on us & our allies – so we have canon-fodder for the next Exchange of Insults – and the Eurozone is outraged enough to limit further USA incursions into OUR Continent (to which it doesn’t belong) …

    And we can discuss the impact of Snowden’s leaks on TV etc, without actually bursting into embarrassingly vindictive hilarity.”

  8. Though Oh, Canada: How America’s friendly northern neighbor became a rogue, reckless petrostate as a somewhat tongue-in-cheek, though nevertheless scathing condemnation of the environmental recklessness of

    [The author of this transformation is Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a right-wing policy wonk and evangelical Christian with a power base in Alberta, ground zero of Canada’s oil boom. Just as Margaret Thatcher funded her political makeover of Britain on revenue from North Sea oil, Harper intends to methodically rewire the entire Canadian experience with petrodollars sucked from the ground.]

    I’d anoint it Read of the Day

  9. Mari, as a Rudd supporter I agree, it is time for all Gillard and Rudd supporters to now come together as ALP supporters and throw everything into beating Abbott and the Coalition!

  10. Labor retaining government with the support of cross benchers? Worth it just to see the conservative tantrum that would surely follow. Especially if it was from a minority of the TPP vote.
    Is there likely to be any polling in Denison or Melbourne? At this point I suspect Wilkie will be safe, and Bandt’s survival depends on Liberal preferences.

  11. he got very low vote last time and got home on lib preference,, and the labor candidate well read the mercury yesterday her photo and the good work she is doing is all over the place,, wilkie has put HUGE photo up in one of the poorer areas where she I hear has been very well received

    most people I know say wilkie should of concentrated local stuff in stead of poker machines’

    that’s what I hear but well who really know
    but I will be helping Jane Austin and I don’t live in her electorate

  12. There is at least one tory politician who like Julia Gillard, although have to cross the Tasman to find him.

    [Key invites Gillard over to stay at his bach

    While John Key was among the first to congratulate Kevin Rudd on his successful leadership coup, it is Mr Rudd’s deposed rival, Julia Gillard, that the Prime Minister has personally invited to come and stay at his Omaha beach house…..Mr Key has enjoyed a close working relationship with Ms Gillard since she became Australian Prime Minister three years ago, despite coming from opposite sides of the political spectrum.

    The pair are understood to keep in touch via text message and have enjoyed wagers on transtasman sports fixtures.

    Mr Key and his wife, Bronagh, hit it off with Ms Gillard and Tim Mathieson when they hosted them in Queenstown earlier this year.]

  13. and in my humble opinion unless its a minority gov
    independents can do very little,if I was a majority pm I doubt I take much notice of an independent it just keeps them in the seat.
    , also keep in mind wilkie is not a Tasmanian counts a lot here

  14. Morning all.

    [Fairfax going behind the paywall will limit our Dawn Patrol acivities – both posting and reading.]

    Fairfax implementing a paywall? Now that the Age has its preferred Labor leader installed and leadershit is behind us, how convenient!

  15. we do know who u mean nari and he that shall not be named, I still don’t read a word he says

    but yes my motto is that Julia would vote alp so should we

    to save her great policies,

    other should stop whinging and know who they have to support blogs are a mirror to the world

    set a good example or don’t post. simple as that.

    in other words don’t write crap

  16. my say, I thought the ALP was on the nose in Tassie? Happy to be corrected, I guess we’ll see when someone starts polling there.

  17. well connie I look at differently to you
    is this nearly the end of newspapers, well some any way

    I for one want be paying to read anything they have to say,

    I support the aust, guardian who so far have not found it necessary to charge us an entry fee

  18. Mr Denmore makes the same points as some of us have been making for a while now:

    [In political journalism, as we have seen, the sources are frequently anonymous and almost always talking their own book, just like the brokers and investment banks spruiking initial public offers to mug punter ‘mums and dads’. Flattering themselves as Bernsteins and Woodwards – brave agents of the people against untrammelled power – some politicial journalists romanticise the notion of anonymous sources as something other than what they are – a source of easy copy to feed the insatiable appetite of the daily news monster.

    This is a rather long-winded way of theorising why with a few notable exceptions, the Australian press gallery these past three years has treated the public with contempt – serving the interests of insiders and allowing themselves to be manipulated for the purposes of a story.

    In an op-ed last year, former Age editor Michael Gawenda put his finger on it, noting that journalists reporting on the Rudd-Gillard saga were placing the principle of respecting anonymous sources ahead of their primary function of telling the public what was really going on.]

    They can paywall themselves into oblivion. The press gallery no longer functions as a reliable source of what is happening in politics.

  19. Morning All

    Was half asleep at the time but SEN radio was running the Malcolm Turnbull for leader line, that should make a few here happy.

    Sounds like Rudd is floating some good ideas – increasing Newstart, building a regional processing centre in Indonesia, moving to an ETS earlier, removing the cuts to universities, etc – must have found a stack of cash somewhere???

    The processing centre in Indonesia, or the region, makes a lot of sense – anyone that came by boat could be put on a plane and sent straight back there. It might actually stop the boats.

    Great work by Simon Gerrans and Green Edge on the stage win at Le Tour, brilliant

  20. Sophie did it last night on Q&A, and other Libs keep referring to the Real Solution for All Australians pamphlet

    It is not a policy document but a collection of statements outlining Party aspirations.

    What about some real policies, costed that will not change after the election.

  21. Great article by Simon Chapman defending the standing of the state to regulate to protect public safety and spiking the IPA ‘nanny state’ meme. I loved this in particular:

    Similar attacks once rained down on Edwin Chadwick, the architect of the first Public Health Act in England in 1848. He proposed the first regulatory measures to control overcrowding, drinking water quality, sewage disposal and building standards.

    In response, The Times thundered:

    We prefer to take our chance with cholera and the rest than be bullied into health. There is nothing a man hates so much as being cleansed against his will, or having his floors swept, his walls whitewashed, his pet dung heaps cleared away.

    Err … quite. Merchants of human filth indeed. Perphaps the IPA might inscribe this on their website. 😉

  22. well yes that’s what the polls tell us don’t they

    but when I am out and about I never find a lib voter
    I have for 12 months now set a target of 5 strangers
    to speak to mind u I don’t go out a lot these days

    but say av, once a week,,, and ive found about 10 liberals in all that time]

    ive met a few that have said wilkie had let them down as he seemed to push national things,

    now in my humble opinion if he had wanted to do something realy big for us he should of pushed freight equalisation never hear d a word from him on that
    STate wise I am afraid we will lose the election

    the feeling the greens have ruined the state

    and any amount of talking I don’t think will change that mood,,, sadly,, the liberals will do not better they are the same as fed a lot or talking heads
    that just slogan,

    so far any way,

    so I think a lot of people are getting mixed up in their minds I hope they will sort out the state and fed
    elections in their minds soon
    abbott wil take a 1/4 of our gst ,,, says he want
    ‘but I don’t believe a word he says

  23. Can Direct Action really be called a policy when one of the key components is to seek industry input after the election.

    Vote for one thing and get a whole different thing after the election.

    I seem to remember someone ranting that another Party allegedly did this sort of thing after the last election…..”double standards’??????????

  24. Morning all. With paywalls in place I have resorted to Aunty.

    This story is on the Debelle report into the coverup of a sex assault case at an Adelaide school.
    [“From what I’ve seen in the report there are clearly names mentioned just in the first contents page of the report so more than just disciplinary action, I’d love to come and see them face parents and, you know, cop a bit of what that’s been for myself and my children for, you know, the past seven or eight months,” she said.

    Education Department CEO Keith Bartley would not rule out taking disciplinary action against staff.]

    Would not rule out?? Why have the relevant staff not been disciplined already? I find this a regrettably consistent pattern in the SA public service. Secrecy is used to protect peope who have behaved incompetently or even unethically, with no effective enforcement of the utterly meaningless code of ethics for State public servants. It reminds me of Joh era Queensland prior to Fitzgerald.

    I do not mean to say that all SA public servants are bad; I know some excellent ones. But the enforcement of behavioural standards on the bad ones is non existant. As Fitzgerald pointed out, this sort of environment allows corruption to flourish. No doubt, that occurs here too.

  25. [So Smearfax finally joins the OO in removing itself from public discourse (at least in the minds of anyone under about 40). Yay!

    I wonder if (like the OO) this is a “pseudo” paywall with a built-in cat flap that allows the those who really want to see it to do so without actually paying for it?]

    Surely a Fairfax suicide pact?

    Anything Fairfax still had going for it, besides cartoons, is also covered on the Web – and, in the AFR’s case, “apps” – often by writers far more qualified in their areas (inc economic, financial etc news) and far more balanced than any still working for Old Media dailies. Fairfax has been regurgitating The Guardian’s international news for years; now The G’s pinched the best of CPG’s bad lot, it’s beating Fairfax to, and besting it at Oz national news.

    If only The G would poach Fairfax’s cartoonists too … (hint hint, Guardian!)

  26. Posted Tuesday, July 2, 2013 at 8:34 am | Permalink





    PRODUCTIVTY WISE,,, so many posts fall out because of the slowness of the system

  27. resorted to auntie

    mmm well

    if u didn’t watch the abc last night re q and a
    you would not know what TONY Jones last
    sentence was,,, I ve not checked the text

    to see if its in the text ,,
    has any one

  28. Fran, thanks for the link to the great Chapman article and the hillarious Times quote.

    To me the fact that the “Nanny State” meme is just an excuse for biggotted responses against groups the iht hate is proven by its inconsistent application. It does not work in reverse.

    During the GFC our nanny state guaranteed all the banks with public money. I did not hear a peep out of conservatives. Nor did I hear complaints when Victoria had to take over the private operator of Melbourne’s trains, after that Kennett privatisation failed. Why not go after the directors for the money? No, we won’t talk about that. Why do we have to be represented by a barrister in court? Why not any good lawyer? It creates an expensive monopoly. Even Thatcher got rid of that lurk in Britain.

    In short, the nanny state meme is trotted out against the poor, the sick, the old and the unemployed. It is never run against the wealthy, whether in protected industries, occupations, the bank managers shielded from prosecution, or “struggling” farmers, no matter how many millions the farm or farmer is worth.

  29. Morning

    my say

    [Tony Jones to Sophie Mirrabella “Does it help when you have Rupert Murdoch on your side”? #QandA Gold!]

  30. Shellbell

    Thanks, I did not know that about Debelle. His report showd courage. Let us hope Weatherall has the courage to implement its findings, for the sake of the State.

  31. [ABCnewsIntern ‏@ABCnewsIntern 9h
    Tony Abbott on @SMirabellaMP in 2012 “She’s done a really good job in the industry portfolio, which is not typically a ‘women’s’ portfolio.”]

    Did he really say this?!

  32. my say

    Posted Tuesday, July 2, 2013 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    Posted Tuesday, July 2, 2013 at 8:34 am | Permalink


    Live in a regional area. 9 times in a day the system closed done. Then takes 40-45 mins to get back to the sites. How businesses cope is beyond me.

    The only advantage of all the ‘crashing” – I get a heap of stuff done around the house while waiting for it all the start working again and again and again…

    I have a suggestion as to where Abbott/Turnbull can stick their copper.

  33. So Bludgertrack has labor with more seats than the libs?
    The liberals are really unhinging, first Sophie last night and then Hockey this morning on RN was frothing at the mouth with fran.

  34. Great to see Ed Husic take the oath on the Qurán – if that is what he believes in, that is what he should use. For me it would be by affirmation – each to their own

    Disgraceful to see the abuse he is copping for doing so

    Better get to work – have a great day all

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