Rudd 57, Gillard 45

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

We have a new/old Labor leader and, presumably, a new/old prime minister. Soon, I fear, we will have a new election date. Developing …

UPDATE: Prominent Gillard-ites Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig have resigned from cabinet. Penny Wong has unanimously been chosen to replace Conroy as Senate leader, with Jacinta Collins replacing Wong as deputy. Anthony Albanese defeated Simon Crean 61-38 in a ballot for deputy in the House.

UPDATE 2: Greg Combet also resigns from cabinet, and Craig Emerson to go from parliament. Preselections loom for Lalor and Rankin.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan SMS poll): Morgan has sprung into action with a “snap” SMS poll of 2530 respondents, showing a Coalition lead of just 50.5-49.5 from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 8.5% for the Greens. For what it’s worth, a Morgan poll conducted by the same method on the day of the 2010 election turned in a highly accurate result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,091 comments on “Rudd 57, Gillard 45”

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  1. Wilkie to support Rudd! And it was Rudd who undermined the pokies reforms by promising to wind back the polies policies in the the last non-leadership challenge.

    So much for Wilkie.

  2. A mate of mine just posed this to me:

    [Will Rudd bring on the election early and lock in Abbot as opponent, or wait till the Libs start to tear themselves apart and THEN lock in Abbot?]

    This is what I mean by game on! Tactical options people. Been a whole since we got to discuss those.

    BRING THE RUDDSTORM!

  3. So has anyone heard from MB ?? Getting worried. Someone should check on him. Poor sod must be inconsolable. What will he do when he can’t copy and paste “Gillard led government” again.

  4. lefty e

    ‘BRING THE RUDDSTORM!’

    We have had four years of the Ruddstorm attacking Labor and you suck up to him as if he is messiah. A classic example of all that is sick at the core of Labor.

  5. Yesiree Bob @8:17
    +1

    I just hope the Kevin Rudd boosters are right. I’ll be voting Labor although I am disappointed at tonight’s result. But Tony Abbott PM simply doesn’t bear thinking about.

  6. [52
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:10 pm | PERMALINK
    alias

    ‘A determination to unite, leave aside gloating, and get on with beating Abbott.’

    Not me. Sociopath and narcissist. Gimme the job or I’ll wreck the joint. Tweedledum and Tweedledee.]
    You fit your self diagnosis rather well.

    Get help.

  7. alias

    [Every time anyone here gets tempted to undermine Rudd just picture PM Tony Abbott. Please.]

    That is stunningly hypocritical.

  8. I can’t see a no confidence motion getting up tomorrow. Wilkie and Katter behind Rudd. Presumably Slipper and Thomson too. That’ll be enough, won’t it?

  9. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    misogynists win. In parliament and on PB. You are a lot of woman-hating arskeholes. You know who you are.]

    This is really juvenile.

  10. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:26 pm | PERMALINK
    misogynists win. In parliament and on PB. You are a lot of woman-hating arskeholes. You know who you are.]

    Gillard losing a ballot is sexist…
    Rudd losing a ballot is not, eh?

  11. lefty e:

    What you and rest of your credulous, naive R*ddstruck coterie forget is that an early election works to the benefit of the opposition, not the other way round.

  12. BW
    [Labor and Liberal policies are different. But their leadership is sociopath or narcissist – same same.]
    Labor has won that contest hands down. Since Abbott became leader of Libs there has not been any vindictiveness from Turnbull or Hockey. Labor can only dream of that.

  13. Sorry for the lack of posts tonight. I’ve been bouncing through several social media sites as well as offline discussions.

    So, besides the change of leadership, is there any other interesting changes?

    I have heard about Wong becoming Senate leader.

    I also heard Ludwig has resigned from cabinet.

    Anything else? Any news on deputy yet?

  14. T.P.

    it is done

    No it isn’t, pal. Your little sociopath is in the saddle but do not for a moment think that his personality has changed an iota. Nothing, but nothing ‘is done’ in the Labor Party until it figures how to kick him out of the Party.

  15. [61
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:11 pm | PERMALINK
    A win for Murduch. He gets a puppet no matter who wins the election. A win for Abbott. The only person to ever beat him at anything is gone. A win for men. They prevail again.

    Well, Libs, you won. I was wrong. I will leave this blog to you.

    May the sociopaths enjoy it.]
    Sorry Puff, this is no Jo Nova’s blog.

  16. [So has anyone heard from MB ?? Getting worried. Someone should check on him. Poor sod must be inconsolable. What will he do when he can’t copy and paste “Gillard led government” again.]

    I’m filling in for him.

    These media-driven caucus polls are completely fake! Gillards going to sail home to a landslide victory! Labor will win 120 seats in NSW alone!

  17. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    Nemspy,
    rack off, woman-hater.]

    Why am I a woman hater? I’m married to one. I voted for a woman in my own electorate (before my time outside Australia) since 1998.

  18. I personally do not care who leads Labor, as long as they can keep out the anti-rational right-wingers that have captured the Liberal Party.

  19. ML

    ‘…as I said before, this place is chokkers full of very sore losers….’

    The real losers are out there. Have a wallow in your hubris and enjoy Abbott while ye may.

    God. Rudd v Abbott. Rotten apple v Rotten apple.

  20. I think it’s cathartic for the JG supporters to vent their collective spleens now. After an appropriate amount of time, say 30 minutes, they should unite behind Kevin in the same way us Ruddista’s were constantly told to fall in behind the party and Julia. The party has now spoken.

  21. [I can’t see a no confidence motion getting up tomorrow.]

    Antony Green couldn’t either.

    The one comfort tonight gives me is that Credlin is, as we speak, furiously flipping through her reported extensive knowledge of parliamentary tactics to find something, anything that will seize control of QT tomorrow.

  22. mimhoff@128

    Amazing how the same people who called Kim Carr’s departure a Stalinist purge are now celebrating ministerial resignations.

    Many people start with their belief in a person as a premise and conclude with justifications for that person’s actions.

    A just person will perform some action and have it be judged just. An unjust person will perform the same action in similar circumstances and have it judged unjust.

    This is not necessarily hypocrisy as it may simply be consistency along a dimension we’re unaware of.

  23. swamprat

    ‘I personally do not care who leads Labor, as long as they can keep out the anti-rational right-wingers that have captured the Liberal Party.’

    Right. Like Rudd isn’t an anti-rational right-winger.

  24. Player One@123


    It’s time now for the ALP to unite, the real enemy is Abbott and the focus has to be on ensuring that he never becomes PM.
    The ALP need to do whatever it takes to ensure that such a scenario never happens.


    Good luck with that.

    The alternative is an Abbott government.
    That must never happen, the nation simply cannot afford it.

  25. Hoping we’re spared the dummy spits from the Gillard supporters that we’ve had to sit through with certain Rudd supporters the past few years.

  26. The politcal assassination of Julia Gillard is the work of woman-hating misogynists, of which there are quite a few on PB, now that they have been allowed to proliferate, started the minute she assumed the Prime Ministership. It was not this vote. The men on both sides wanted her out and they got what they wanted. Now let’s all get together and elect Murdoch’s puppet.

  27. YB

    ‘The alternative is an Abbott government.
    That must never happen, the nation simply cannot afford it.’

    So, you want a sociopath to run Australia again?

  28. [147
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    ‘We will see. People are very very sick of the tenor of politics – the personalisation of differences, the insults and the bile. Maybe attacks on KR will rebound on the Libs….we will soon see, because they will certainly try to destroy him.’

    I don’t care what the polls say and I don’t care whether Labor or Liberal get in. The horrible thing is that the Greens have been right but for the wrong reasons. Labor and Liberal policies are different. But their leadership is sociopath or narcissist – same same.]

    boerwar, I just feel dismay. Nothing about this can end well, or so I feel. It has all come down to denialism, cosmetic politics and fantasy. There can be no joy here for any of us.

  29. [ltep
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Hoping we’re spared the dummy spits from the Gillard supporters that we’ve had to sit through with certain Rudd supporters the past few years.]

    If the last 30 mins on PB is any indication I would suggest that this is unlikely.

  30. I’m as saddened as disappointed as anyone to see Gillard go. I think it’s a sad indictment of our once fair country she was vilified and forced out the way she was. By large sections of the public, the Neanderthal opposition and the mean-spirited elements of the PLP.

    But as a Labor supporter through and through I have to give Kev a chance. I hope he has truly learned from his mistakes and his supporters take the opportunities this affords with the grace it deserves.

    Honestly though. I am not convinced the public, beyond an initial poll bounce, are as forgiving as I am. Hope I’m wrong.

  31. ‘Hoping we’re spared the dummy spits from the Gillard supporters that we’ve had to sit through with certain Rudd supporters the past few years.

    No way pal. What comes round goes round.

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