BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 41
1 2 3 4 … 41

  2. BK,

    For what it’s worth, your links are the first thing I read every morning. I hope you continue, but understand if you don’t.

  5. [Apart from the content it is a great marker for when any overnight craziness is at an end.]

    Yes! It’s my marker as well!!

  7. Ok thanks Victoria.

    BK, don’t go. I value your posts. Think about the positives. If we win we can put shit on Sean. If we lose we can still put shit on him when the wheels start to fall off the Abbott bus.

  14. Lynchpin
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:44 am | PERMALINK
    Question for you Meguire Bob. If the ALP install Rudd, will The ALP “win by default”?

    ————-

    No because that what news ltd./abbott coalition wants

    Newsltd/Abbott coalition do not what to face Gillard

  15. Lynchpin

    I have no idea why Windsor would take this view late in the piece. Labor are going to be in opposition on the 15th Sep anyway

  17. Lynchpin:

    I thought ‘windstorm’ was a reference to the unseasonal flooding in the Pilbara after AA’s comment! 😆

  19. “@Simon_Cullen: Greg Combet: “The Labor party can’t afford to have leadership speculation go on, so some discipline needs to be reasserted.””

  20. Lynchpin, I think some PBers are understandedly bitter and frustrated at what has happened to Labor over these 6 years. They can see the train wreck coming. Reactions will vary. Some look for answers, others just mock the situation while others just get plain angry. There are also those who want to believe the train wreck won’t occur, unrealistic in my opinion.

  21. victoria

    dont be surprise if liberal party will have anew leader

    Windsor did say late last year he and oakeshott if advise by the liberal party that abbott will not be contesting as leader

    You will see oakeshott make his decision

  26. Gecko
    I am sorry to hear about your Mum. I hope all goes well for OH and his chemo and for you… it must be a tough time for you.

  27. BK
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
    Puhleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!!!

  30. BK

    I happen to know that a certain serpent’s first task of the day is to slither into Bludger to check your brekkie offerings…

    Does that make a difference to your decision?

  32. Windsor did say something like this

    The only leadership speculation which is likely to happen is on the other side the liberal party.

    Members of the liberal party told myself and rob that if they change leaders before the 2013 election

    they would be informed and rob would make his decision

  33. Meguire Bob. Re Windsor, I don’t think so. He has effectively said he will install Abbott as PM if Labor change leaders. Libs win by default.

  34. confessions

    There is a part of me that wants to believe there is a method to the current madness being displayed in the Labor party, and it will all work out in the end. But it is most likely wishful thinking on my part

  35. Herewith my thanks to Oakshott and my best wishes for whatever he does next. His misfortune was to be in that Place when a couple of rotten apples were doing Gimme the Job or I’ll Wreck the Joint.

    Unfortunately, it is far easier to wreck things than to build them.

    In another time, Oakshott might have made a bigger difference but you can’t do reason with sociopaths and narcissists.

  38. Boerwar

    Windsor and Oakeshott have been the adults of this parliament. The same cannot be said for the coalition and some within the Labor party.

  39. Lynchpin
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:00 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob. Re Windsor, I don’t think so. He has effectively said he will install Abbott as PM if Labor change leaders. Libs win by default.
    ——————–

    Nope , windsor is not changing sides in a vote of no confidence

    he says has no confidence in the new leader

    The only way the coalition can be in government if they had a new leader and the independents change sides with no need for a vote of no confidence

  40. Gary I agree. Rudd is the best chance now in my opinion. History will judge Gillard fairly. Rudd will have an immediate impact on the polls in a positive way for the ALP I believe. His presence will at least retain seats in Queensland.

  41. BK

    I sympathise with your feelings, but, like Confessions, your links present a solid morning start after the vapid bullshit that fills the night watches now.
    If you can bear it, please continue.

    I saw Oakeshott’s interview with Fran Kelly on ABC24 this morning, and he is so much to be admired, just for standing up for what he believes in. From the Twitter insults I have read, I’m not surprised he’s decided to give it away. Bit, once again, we have an example of the bullies winning. IMHO it’s happening everywhere now.

    There was a lovely moment when Fran said wtte “the polls show you are going to lose anyway” and he stared at her and simply replied “Prove it”.

  42. Slipper and Thomson have no interest in bringing on an early election. Oakshott and Windsor are caught between two rotten apples. Katter would be a wildcat glance. Bandt is caught betweent the devil and the deep blue sea.

    In terms of the cross benchers, there is no evident probability about which way a no confidence motion would fall.

  44. victoria:

    I am still of the view that a united and mature party can provide a decent contest. After all, it’s not like the coalition have any substantive answers to any of the nation’s problems.

  46. Katter has said he will not help abbott into government without an election he will abstain

    slipper and thomson will not vote wiht an abbott led coalition

  49. Gary and Lynchpyn

    I disagree. I think a change of leader to anyone including Mr Rudd will feed the chaos and incompetent line. This will keep the polls where they are or lower

Comments Page 3 of 41
1 2 3 4 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *