BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. 104-41. There will be a few LIbs and Nats looking at each other across the chamber.

    It will be interesting to see if the primary votes’ differentials between Essential (mid 30s) and Nielsen/Newspoll (30) narrow before the election

  2. MB – As you suggest what Mr Oakeshott has to say in Parliament today and tomorrow and, then, over the next couple of months might be interesting!

  3. Rob Oakeshott has been a shining light in this parliament – a leader of his community and country who has achieved a great deal for his constituents and the nation as a whole.

    The swamp people will no doubt emerge today with their vitriol but Rob retires having achieved far more than all of them combined.

  4. Good Morning.

    I salute Mr Oakeshott. His decisions this Parliamentary term show there is decency, respect and intelligence on the Conservative side of politics.

    History will remember his support of a government for battling Climate Change, building the NBN and improving the operation of parliament.

  5. I think its time to move Lyne into the coalition’s column. I dont think anyone thinks Labor can win it being a seat they never held.

  6. Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    Sad news of Oakshott’s retirement; but sadness tinged with fury for the way he and his family were culminated, harrassed, constantly by members of the LNP, and his wife threatened by Lib scum like Bill Heffernan.

    The Oakshotts probably felt a considerable bond with GG Quentin Bryce, whose family copped appalling harassment & the children were accosted outside school gates & vilely targeted with gruesome photos by “religious” groups like Margaret Tiegh’s supposedly “christian” Right to Life antiabortionists and Rona Joiner’s “christian” far RW (esp League of Rights).

    I’ve posted before that I recognised some of Jo Nova’s Truckwits from the aggressively abusive RW “christians” of Rona Joiner’s attacks on high school curricula, and Women Who Want to be Women & their thug males mates of the AntiDiscrimintion battles. They’re older now; but even more offensive. Their hatred has nothing to do with Carbon Pricing – that’s just their smokescreen. It has everything to do with their paranoid hatred of women who aren’t subservient, and determination to degrade women back into their “rightful place”: abused virtual slavery.

    Having been on committees with Quentin during the fight to get the AntiDiscrimination legislation passed – OH’s brother’s wife was at the same school as Quentin at the same time & B-i-L was most moved by her letter of condolence – I imagine she’d have offered Oakey “been there, done that” encouragement. She’s that kind of person.

  7. Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.

    Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.

  8. For something different lets debate the leadership and knitting, a bit about budgie smugglers but we must avoid policy. That would make for a very short discussion.

    Libs education policy is dated 2010 and appears to be a photocopy of Menzies policy from the 1950’s.

    Most of the Communications/NBN policy is plagiarised from 100 years ago

    Asylum seeker policy is based around the British Empire still being dominant = those pesky Indonesians will do as they are told

  9. guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.

    Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.
    =====================================================
    87% of legislation passed through Parliament had bi-partisan support

    Over 500 bills passed

    He’s only made noises about the legislation that suits his one line rant style

  10. what every labor member should reply to journalists crap questions

    What the nbn can do for Australians

    that will piss the pro coalition media off

  11. Speaker anna burke has got her ruling wrong

    the leader of the opposition can be asked questions in question time

    I remember kim beazley was asked questions and was allowed

  12. So the Scottish thug McTernan, the genius behind the knitting photo, is now
    trying a desperate and depraved bullyboy tactic to stop Labor MPs making the
    only rational decision as we stare in disbelief and horror at a BludgerTrack
    that is sinking to levels that are truly frightening in terms of Labor’s chances
    of remaining as a viable political force.

  13. Alais

    Everyone knows this week is newsltd/abbott coalition final desperation to change leaders

    they fail

    the Gillard government wins by default

  14. alias

    Knitting all you got?

    This on the day President Obama destroys Abbott on no other country is doing it and it is clear Abbott has broken his major promise.

    Parliament has run full term

  15. The public should wake and see that the news ltd/abbott coalition is only a coalition of lies,dirt propaganda, and living in the past and only is in it for self interest

    Newsltd/abbott coalition have no policies for the future or are ready for government

  16. Meguire Bob

    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    Speaker anna burke has got her ruling wrong

    the leader of the opposition can be asked questions in question time

    I remember kim beazley was asked questions and was allowed
    —————————————————-

    from memory it requires requesting permission from the House, both sides have to agree

    Not having seen what went on, Did Albo as Leader of the House agree? To prevent it from happening it only needs Albo to say no.

    Abbott was asked a question and approved to speak for 3 mins last week

    Anna Burke is guided by the Standing Orders that dictate the process.

  17. So Ed Snowden’s still in a Moscow airport; from which Putin has now intention of handing him over to the USA :-D. Putin: Edward Snowden in Moscow airport but will not be extradited
    BTW: below the headline is a link to the interesting • Live Q&A: where can Snowden go to avoid US extradition?

    Meanwhile, Russia & China are getting in decades worth of Payback for decades worth of USA threats and verbal abuse for the very practices at which the USA itself now excels.

    Here’s the Russian reaction:

    Putin appeared to lash out at US accusations that the Kremlin was harbouring a fugitive. “Any accusations against Russia are nonsense and rubbish,” Putin said…

    “Assange and Snowden consider themselves human rights activists and say they are fighting for the spread of information,” Putin said. “Ask yourself this: should you hand these people over so they will be put in prison?

    “In any case, I’d rather not deal with such questions, because anyway it’s like shearing a pig – lots of screams but little wool.”

    After leaking documents that exposed the breadth of the US surveillance state, Snowden has come under fire for seeking shelter in China and Russia, both accused of clamping down on citizens’ freedoms.

    And the Chinese. And aren’t they enjoying it!

    China’s top state newspaper earlier praised Snowden for “tearing off Washington’s sanctimonious mask” and rejected accusations that Beijing had facilitated his departure from Hong Kong. …

    The Chinese government has said it is gravely concerned by Snowden’s allegations that the US has hacked into many networks in Hong Kong and China, including Tsinghua University, which hosts one of the country’s internet hubs, and Chinese mobile network companies. It said it had taken the issue up with Washington.

    “Not only did the US authorities not give us an explanation and apology, it instead expressed dissatisfaction at the Hong Kong special administrative region for handling things in accordance with law,” wrote Wang Xinjun, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science in the People’s Daily commentary.

    With this “killer” slam-dunk. After 64 years of copping it from the USA, they must really be enjoying this!

    “In a sense, the United States has gone from a ‘model of human rights’ to ‘an eavesdropper on personal privacy’, the ‘manipulator’ of the centralised power over the international internet, and the mad ‘invader’ of other countries’ networks,” the People’s Daily said.

  18. What labor and other supporters who arent coalition can talk about

    1- policies

    2- How Australia is in god shape

    3- nbn,gonski,ndis , carbon pricing and many more

  19. guytaur

    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.

    Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.
    ———————————————————

    A broken promise….just to list with all the others….

  20. AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:29 am | PERMALINK

    from memory it requires requesting permission from the House, both sides have to agree

    —————-
    dont know whether the howard government did agree to it

    because every time beazley was asked , member of the government point in a point of order, but the speaker over ruled them

  21. I turn the question back to you Guytaur. Is that all you have?
    You’re posting on a thread with a BludgerTrack that should scare
    the breakfast out of you and any sentient Labor supporter.
    Instead you still trot out the same tedious retorts that suggest
    a world in which Labor is competitive under Gillard.

  22. If Abbott was against an price on carbon

    why did robb say in an interview he and Abbott will resign if they do not bring in an ets(price on carbon)

  23. Of course Abbott is a huge worry for Australia. That is precisely the reason
    to look at rhe polls and BludgerTrack. In case you are too scared to look
    or see nothing but sand when you do, that is Abbott right rhere, making a
    ist of quesions to ask the first bloke about living in the prime ministerial
    abode.

  24. Liberal Policies are changing regularly.

    Direct Action is universally condemned. It was unfunded at $32billion now unfunded $2 billion.

    Asylum seekers now in turmoil with Indonesia refusing to kowtow to Abbott.

    Develop the North has no funding – one of many aspirational policies and awaiting Gina to finish writing it.

    457 visas – based on what Gina has told Abbott she wants.

    Parental Leave – broadly condemned by members of Party and business. No business case to show how much it will effect cost of living and inflation. Estimated to cost business more than the current carbon price. Banks saying they will increase interest rates 0.5%.

    Education – policy on the Liberal website is dated 2010. Out of date and is possibly a photocopy of Menzies policy

  25. alias

    So why do you say the polls the polls when I have pointed out a major broken promise from Abbott.

    I said nothing about polls or anything else. Just Abbott has broken a major promise. He has failed. Parliament is going to run full term

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    ==========================================================
    Before going to my usual links I feel that I must say that I am strongly considering whether or not to continue this daily function. This is in the light of my rapidly growing disillusionment with what has been happening to this once fine blog. The extent of infantile and repetitive content from the likes of Sean Tisme is diluting the value of the excellent content from many of the older regulars. It is a shame.
    I will continue to post my daily links elsewhere.
    ==========================================================
    Yeah, we have every reason to believe you!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/archbishop-denis-hart-issues-reply-to-police-allegations/4780266
    I will not read Hartcher’s piece which should be titled “The battle of the backbones”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/if-he-will-step-up-the-pms-job-is-likely-his-20130625-2ovcb.html
    If your blood needs boiling read this!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/priest-knew-of-abuse-but-did-nothing-20130625-2ov7k.html
    Barney Zwartz reports on the Victorian inquiry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/catholic-church-still-impeding-sex-inquiries-20130625-2ov80.html
    Alan Moir on the neverending leadership saga.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope with Julia’s special archive.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg puts leadershit into perspective.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.
    David Rowe brings Julia’s knitting into play.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  27. “@abcnews: Oakeshott: I’m not willing at this stage in my life, with my family … to commit to another three years”

    “@abcnews: Oakeshott: I tried to lift the level and lift the bar and lift the respect. If I haven’t been able to achieve that then I apologise”

    “@abcnews: Oakeshott: I believe in original concept of democracy where you stand, you get elected and community gets behind you and you work together”

  28. Industrial relations – have to wait for detail as to what Abbott will do until after the election. If elected he will have the Productivity Commission do a report and he will act on that. So what will happen is anyone’s guess.

    GST – he’s just hiding behind the skirts of the state governments. Too gutless and lacking any leadership. If the GST does change he will gutlessly be saying “it was the states – not me”.

  29. “@abcnews: Oakeshott: If @KRuddMP or any other candidate wants to win my support … put your ideas on the floor of the Parliament”

  30. BK

    Don’t do that….would remove some of the little remaining joy these daze and make us all have to trawl through that MSM crap for the highlights

  31. Morning all. Oakshott leaving parliament is understandable. I agree he is one who can do so with his head held high. Labor was fortunate to have people with as much integrity as he and Windsor holding their seats. When Labor failed to gain their votes, they should recognise they were making political errors.

    Thanks for the links on Snowdon Oz. Apart from the irony, the US over reaction does highlight their guilt and insecurity. How can Snowdon be charged with espionage? There is no suggestion he sold the information to anyone, or gave the information to a foreign power. So he may have broken the rules, and exposed a secret, but he has not actually made public any US defence technology. He has told pople what they are doing, not how.

  32. morning all

    BK

    I fully understand your frustration. I always look forward to your links in the morning.

    It is difficult scrolling through a lot of the mindless rubbish being posted on this blog of late

  33. “@CUhlmann: Dont expect that a change of leader in Labor will be immediately endorsed by the cross bench. Watch what Tony Windsor says at 9.30am.”

  34. 3rd attempt to post

    Morning All

    Well done to Rob Oakeshott on playing a vital role in what has been a very successful 43rd parliament – will be missed imo

    Sounding as if there will be a leadership spill and that’s probably a good thing. It has to come to an end either way and that can’t really happen without a vote. What will be will be – but I hope those making the decision look at all the options available not just those on the table. Stephen Smith for PM – you know it makes sense 🙂

    Fran and Michelle talking about Rudd scrapping Gonski if he gets back in, that would be a massive mistake imo

    Another fascinating day coming up – I believe that if there is a petition it has to be today?

  35. “@Riley7News: Exclusive @sunriseon7. Independent Tony Windsor tells PM he’d support no confidence if Rudd returns. Could make Tony Abbott PM by weekend..”

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