A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
104-41. There will be a few LIbs and Nats looking at each other across the chamber.
It will be interesting to see if the primary votes’ differentials between Essential (mid 30s) and Nielsen/Newspoll (30) narrow before the election
Oakeshott over and out:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-26/rob-oakeshott-to-quit-politics/4780492
CTar1
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 6:13 am | PERMALINK
Oakeshott over and out:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-26/rob-oakeshott-to-quit-politics/4780492
———————
He has nothing to lose, so will he put censure motion against abbot and spill the beans how abbot begged for the job in 2010
MB – As you suggest what Mr Oakeshott has to say in Parliament today and tomorrow and, then, over the next couple of months might be interesting!
Rob Oakeshott has been a shining light in this parliament – a leader of his community and country who has achieved a great deal for his constituents and the nation as a whole.
The swamp people will no doubt emerge today with their vitriol but Rob retires having achieved far more than all of them combined.
Ground hog day #?
RD
Second that
Obama Carbon plan
…just a bit late for usefulness here
Good Morning.
I salute Mr Oakeshott. His decisions this Parliamentary term show there is decency, respect and intelligence on the Conservative side of politics.
History will remember his support of a government for battling Climate Change, building the NBN and improving the operation of parliament.
I think its time to move Lyne into the coalition’s column. I dont think anyone thinks Labor can win it being a seat they never held.
Good morning, Dawn Patrol.
Sad news of Oakshott’s retirement; but sadness tinged with fury for the way he and his family were culminated, harrassed, constantly by members of the LNP, and his wife threatened by Lib scum like Bill Heffernan.
The Oakshotts probably felt a considerable bond with GG Quentin Bryce, whose family copped appalling harassment & the children were accosted outside school gates & vilely targeted with gruesome photos by “religious” groups like Margaret Tiegh’s supposedly “christian” Right to Life antiabortionists and Rona Joiner’s “christian” far RW (esp League of Rights).
I’ve posted before that I recognised some of Jo Nova’s Truckwits from the aggressively abusive RW “christians” of Rona Joiner’s attacks on high school curricula, and Women Who Want to be Women & their thug males mates of the AntiDiscrimintion battles. They’re older now; but even more offensive. Their hatred has nothing to do with Carbon Pricing – that’s just their smokescreen. It has everything to do with their paranoid hatred of women who aren’t subservient, and determination to degrade women back into their “rightful place”: abused virtual slavery.
Having been on committees with Quentin during the fight to get the AntiDiscrimination legislation passed – OH’s brother’s wife was at the same school as Quentin at the same time & B-i-L was most moved by her letter of condolence – I imagine she’d have offered Oakey “been there, done that” encouragement. She’s that kind of person.
Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.
Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.
@tim_chr: .@OakeyMP to quit politics. He’ll be on @RadioNational at 7:40am AEST to explain his decision. http://t.co/iGvMqo8Qqy
For something different lets debate the leadership and knitting, a bit about budgie smugglers but we must avoid policy. That would make for a very short discussion.
Libs education policy is dated 2010 and appears to be a photocopy of Menzies policy from the 1950’s.
Most of the Communications/NBN policy is plagiarised from 100 years ago
Asylum seeker policy is based around the British Empire still being dominant = those pesky Indonesians will do as they are told
guytaur
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink
Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.
Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.
=====================================================
87% of legislation passed through Parliament had bi-partisan support
Over 500 bills passed
He’s only made noises about the legislation that suits his one line rant style
what every labor member should reply to journalists crap questions
What the nbn can do for Australians
that will piss the pro coalition media off
Speaker anna burke has got her ruling wrong
the leader of the opposition can be asked questions in question time
I remember kim beazley was asked questions and was allowed
So the Scottish thug McTernan, the genius behind the knitting photo, is now
trying a desperate and depraved bullyboy tactic to stop Labor MPs making the
only rational decision as we stare in disbelief and horror at a BludgerTrack
that is sinking to levels that are truly frightening in terms of Labor’s chances
of remaining as a viable political force.
Alais
Everyone knows this week is newsltd/abbott coalition final desperation to change leaders
they fail
the Gillard government wins by default
alias
Knitting all you got?
This on the day President Obama destroys Abbott on no other country is doing it and it is clear Abbott has broken his major promise.
Parliament has run full term
The public should wake and see that the news ltd/abbott coalition is only a coalition of lies,dirt propaganda, and living in the past and only is in it for self interest
Newsltd/abbott coalition have no policies for the future or are ready for government
the coalition supporters can only talk about
1- media biased fantasy opinion polling which is not factual
2- Dirt and propaganda
Meguire Bob
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink
Speaker anna burke has got her ruling wrong
the leader of the opposition can be asked questions in question time
I remember kim beazley was asked questions and was allowed
—————————————————-
from memory it requires requesting permission from the House, both sides have to agree
Not having seen what went on, Did Albo as Leader of the House agree? To prevent it from happening it only needs Albo to say no.
Abbott was asked a question and approved to speak for 3 mins last week
Anna Burke is guided by the Standing Orders that dictate the process.
So Ed Snowden’s still in a Moscow airport; from which Putin has now intention of handing him over to the USA :-D. Putin: Edward Snowden in Moscow airport but will not be extradited
BTW: below the headline is a link to the interesting • Live Q&A: where can Snowden go to avoid US extradition?
Meanwhile, Russia & China are getting in decades worth of Payback for decades worth of USA threats and verbal abuse for the very practices at which the USA itself now excels.
Here’s the Russian reaction:
And the Chinese. And aren’t they enjoying it!
With this “killer” slam-dunk. After 64 years of copping it from the USA, they must really be enjoying this!
What labor and other supporters who arent coalition can talk about
1- policies
2- How Australia is in god shape
3- nbn,gonski,ndis , carbon pricing and many more
guytaur
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink
Mr Abbott promised to bring down the government and not see parliament run the full term. A credit to all the cross bench and the Greens that Election Now!! has failed.
Mr Abbott has failed big time in his publicly stated aim.
———————————————————
A broken promise….just to list with all the others….
MB
Australia is good. Calling us god is pushing it 😉
AussieAchmed
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:29 am | PERMALINK
from memory it requires requesting permission from the House, both sides have to agree
—————-
dont know whether the howard government did agree to it
because every time beazley was asked , member of the government point in a point of order, but the speaker over ruled them
@702sydney: The crew preparing for @LindaMottram ‘s OB live from The Joan in Penrith. #auspol #lindsay http://t.co/Z7NQTgb0bA
The Lindsay test they are calling it.
member of the government made a point of order for the questions to be out of order , but the speaker over ruled them
I turn the question back to you Guytaur. Is that all you have?
You’re posting on a thread with a BludgerTrack that should scare
the breakfast out of you and any sentient Labor supporter.
Instead you still trot out the same tedious retorts that suggest
a world in which Labor is competitive under Gillard.
alias
😆
Abbott breaks a major promise and all you can say is The polls the polls.
Good to see you are not defending Abbott
If Abbott was against an price on carbon, why does he want to follow nz
who has a price on carbon ?
If Abbott was against an price on carbon
why did robb say in an interview he and Abbott will resign if they do not bring in an ets(price on carbon)
Of course Abbott is a huge worry for Australia. That is precisely the reason
to look at rhe polls and BludgerTrack. In case you are too scared to look
or see nothing but sand when you do, that is Abbott right rhere, making a
ist of quesions to ask the first bloke about living in the prime ministerial
abode.
If Abbott was against a price/tax on carbon why does he have one in his direct action
alais
What would your explanation be if labor wins on election day
and the opinion polls averages were 56-44 to the coalition
Liberal Policies are changing regularly.
Direct Action is universally condemned. It was unfunded at $32billion now unfunded $2 billion.
Asylum seekers now in turmoil with Indonesia refusing to kowtow to Abbott.
Develop the North has no funding – one of many aspirational policies and awaiting Gina to finish writing it.
457 visas – based on what Gina has told Abbott she wants.
Parental Leave – broadly condemned by members of Party and business. No business case to show how much it will effect cost of living and inflation. Estimated to cost business more than the current carbon price. Banks saying they will increase interest rates 0.5%.
Education – policy on the Liberal website is dated 2010. Out of date and is possibly a photocopy of Menzies policy
alias
So why do you say the polls the polls when I have pointed out a major broken promise from Abbott.
I said nothing about polls or anything else. Just Abbott has broken a major promise. He has failed. Parliament is going to run full term
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
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Before going to my usual links I feel that I must say that I am strongly considering whether or not to continue this daily function. This is in the light of my rapidly growing disillusionment with what has been happening to this once fine blog. The extent of infantile and repetitive content from the likes of Sean Tisme is diluting the value of the excellent content from many of the older regulars. It is a shame.
I will continue to post my daily links elsewhere.
==========================================================
Yeah, we have every reason to believe you!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/archbishop-denis-hart-issues-reply-to-police-allegations/4780266
I will not read Hartcher’s piece which should be titled “The battle of the backbones”.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/if-he-will-step-up-the-pms-job-is-likely-his-20130625-2ovcb.html
If your blood needs boiling read this!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/priest-knew-of-abuse-but-did-nothing-20130625-2ov7k.html
Barney Zwartz reports on the Victorian inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/catholic-church-still-impeding-sex-inquiries-20130625-2ov80.html
Alan Moir on the neverending leadership saga.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope with Julia’s special archive.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg puts leadershit into perspective.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.
David Rowe brings Julia’s knitting into play.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
“@abcnews: Oakeshott: I’m not willing at this stage in my life, with my family … to commit to another three years”
“@abcnews: Oakeshott: I tried to lift the level and lift the bar and lift the respect. If I haven’t been able to achieve that then I apologise”
“@abcnews: Oakeshott: I believe in original concept of democracy where you stand, you get elected and community gets behind you and you work together”
Industrial relations – have to wait for detail as to what Abbott will do until after the election. If elected he will have the Productivity Commission do a report and he will act on that. So what will happen is anyone’s guess.
GST – he’s just hiding behind the skirts of the state governments. Too gutless and lacking any leadership. If the GST does change he will gutlessly be saying “it was the states – not me”.
“@abcnews: Oakeshott: If @KRuddMP or any other candidate wants to win my support … put your ideas on the floor of the Parliament”
BK
Don’t do that….would remove some of the little remaining joy these daze and make us all have to trawl through that MSM crap for the highlights
Morning all. Oakshott leaving parliament is understandable. I agree he is one who can do so with his head held high. Labor was fortunate to have people with as much integrity as he and Windsor holding their seats. When Labor failed to gain their votes, they should recognise they were making political errors.
Thanks for the links on Snowdon Oz. Apart from the irony, the US over reaction does highlight their guilt and insecurity. How can Snowdon be charged with espionage? There is no suggestion he sold the information to anyone, or gave the information to a foreign power. So he may have broken the rules, and exposed a secret, but he has not actually made public any US defence technology. He has told pople what they are doing, not how.
morning all
BK
I fully understand your frustration. I always look forward to your links in the morning.
It is difficult scrolling through a lot of the mindless rubbish being posted on this blog of late
And from the Land of the Free –
When in doubt blame Obama! See the parallel?
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/06/25/need-a-little-good-news-consumer-confidence-jumps-in-june-new-home-sales-at-highest-level-since-july-08/
Texan Repugs have no shame.
http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/gop-mandates-medical-malpractice-with-new-abortion-laws
A Freudian slip?
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/fox-news-host-jokes-about-networks-strategy-
W’s stacking of the SCOTUS is bearingf fruit for the disgusting Repugs.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/06/25/1218753/-Holder-deeply-disappointed-with-Voting-Rights-Act-ruling-urges-Congress-to-take-action
In a CNN interview Bill Maher mocks FoxNews viewers.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-mocks-horribly-misinformed-fox-viewers-praises-wisdom-of-european-socialism-on-cnn/
“@CUhlmann: Dont expect that a change of leader in Labor will be immediately endorsed by the cross bench. Watch what Tony Windsor says at 9.30am.”
3rd attempt to post
Morning All
Well done to Rob Oakeshott on playing a vital role in what has been a very successful 43rd parliament – will be missed imo
Sounding as if there will be a leadership spill and that’s probably a good thing. It has to come to an end either way and that can’t really happen without a vote. What will be will be – but I hope those making the decision look at all the options available not just those on the table. Stephen Smith for PM – you know it makes sense 🙂
Fran and Michelle talking about Rudd scrapping Gonski if he gets back in, that would be a massive mistake imo
Another fascinating day coming up – I believe that if there is a petition it has to be today?
“@Riley7News: Exclusive @sunriseon7. Independent Tony Windsor tells PM he’d support no confidence if Rudd returns. Could make Tony Abbott PM by weekend..”