BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

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  1. BK

    I am sorry for your feelings and some of the commentary here. I have always appreciated your links.

    I also agree that Hartcher’s article is an over reach and a bit self indulgent. He wants events to till fit the narrative he himself constructed.

    That being said, I think there have been many serious errors of the administration of policy under Gillard, and her leadership is indeed terminal, along with the credibility of many of her cabinet colleagues. She should have gone, but she is too stubborn, and now Labor will be crushed at the election. Labor is not short of fighters, but it needs thinkers. It is very short of them.

  2. womble
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:08 am | PERMALINK

    Sounding as if there will be a leadership spill and that’s probably a good thing.

    ————————–

    In the liberal party ?

    i remmeber last last year when windsor did say he and oakeshott were s told by liberals if they were going to change leaders before the election

    windsor said oakeshott would then announce what he would be doing

  3. AA

    [If elected he will have the Productivity Commission do a report and he will act on that.]

    And if the Productivity Commission doesn’t report what he wants he’ll abolish it (Little Johny was planning to do that if he won the 2007 election).

  4. Meguire Bob

    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    If Abbott was against an price on carbon
    ——–

    Abbott took this current position for Tony Abbott – not for Australia.

    He is on record saying that the best way to put a price on carbon was with a tax.

    His ego prevented him having a bi-partisan approach – his ego will destroy Australia

  5. There you are: Tony Windsor tells PM he’d support no confidence if Rudd returns. – Memo to #Ruddanistas – PM Abbott – blood on your hands

  6. BK

    I too wish you to keep posting your links.

    They are very much appreciated by me and others. Even if you do not get the feedback you should at times

  7. AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:14 am | PERMALINK

    Abbott took this current position for Tony Abbott – not for Australia.

    He is on record saying that the best way to put a price on carbon was with a tax.

    His ego prevented him having a bi-partisan approach – his ego will destroy Australia

    ———————————————

    Agreed

    He was also campaigning hard for howards carbon price

  8. [Before going to my usual links I feel that I must say that I am strongly considering whether or not to continue this daily function. This is in the light of my rapidly growing disillusionment with what has been happening to this once fine blog. The extent of infantile and repetitive content from the likes of Sean Tisme is diluting the value of the excellent content from many of the older regulars. It is a shame. I will continue to post my daily links elsewhere.]

    BK, why taken you so long. You are wasting your time. This blog is now a joke

  9. CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    AA

    If elected he will have the Productivity Commission do a report and he will act on that.
    .

    Productivity Commission doesn’t report what he wants he’ll abolish it (Little Johny was planning to do that if he won the 2007 election).
    ——————————————————

    They will be provided with a list of recommendations and outcomes and will have to frame their report in a manner that supports those recommendations and outcomes

    Bye Bye penalty rates…it will be another attack on low income workers and Unions.

    While he will allow businesses to award themselves multi million dollar bonuses and pay rises even when the company is losing money and shafting shareholders

  10. No idea of the legalities but my advice to Windsor would be that if there is a change of leader he should insist on an August 3 poll rather than support a no-confidence motion.

    That’s a standard campaign period anyway

  11. The stance of the Liberals and their supporters is that the only problem with profits is wages.

    Nothing to do with poor management decisions, poor planning, poor market etc

    Holden – its all about workers wages = yet the executives took a 30% pay rise at the same time as the company lost $150 million…but the problem with Holdens profitability is workers wages

  12. Good morning all.

    Very sad to hear of O’s retirement. But understandable given the truckloads of abuse rained down on him by 2GB and the numpty Nationals.

    BK:

    I will be sorry if you don’t continue to post your links here. I especially appreciate you digging up the cartoons.

  13. Poor finnegans, writings on the wall so she’s off.
    Should have listened to some of us here who have been trying to constructively critique some of the more abysmal of the governments’ political decisions..I’m staying to the bitter end

  14. [Kieran Gilbert ‏@Kieran_Gilbert 10m
    BREAKING: PM will NOT require a show of hands in any special caucus on leadership]

    Isn’t this just standard practice anyway, a secret ballot?

  15. ML

    Big IF there. I still have seen no names and numbers. I suspect another MSM campaign based on same people that got it wrong when Crean put his hand up.

    It has always struck me as odd that Crean did. Maybe he was disloyal and is a rat etc etc. However Mr Crean never struck me as being dumb and unable to count.

  16. [BK, why taken you so long. You are wasting your time. This blog is now a joke]

    In your blog is the ALP travelling smoothly? :devil:

  17. ML

    “….might….if….”

    All you have.

    BK. Very sorry to read of your decision however I must agree. The sheer inanity of this blog has done WB no favours including the return of bemused. There is no discussion of policy just mindless Labor bashing for no ones benefit.

    Thank you for your good work over the years.

  18. Guytaur

    [Abbott breaks a major promise and all you can say is The polls the polls.

    Good to see you are not defending Abbott]

    Well, Guytaur, we know they sure can’t defend his policies.

    Nor can they defend their gutless, taxpayer money-grubbing, compulsive liar of an apology for a LOTO who survives only because he’s propped up by Cardinal Pell & Co, private schools (hence antiGonski), Murdoch & the Oz MSM, Big Mining & other Big tax-avoiders, and the ratbag far RW, inc “christians”

    So I guess their only position is “shoot the messenger”: Australia’s government, that has seen the nation become THE GFC success story, with all 3 AAA financial ratings. NO other Oz government has ever achieved that!

    Wayne Swan was proclaimed the World’s best Treasurer – the only other Oz Treasurer to receive that accolade was Paul Keating (ie NOT Costello; who wasted the Mining Boom by throwing away buckets of money as Middle Class Welfare)!

    If you need any proof of how hopeless is the task of Tory backers etc on PB, just scan yesterday’s inane, insane “KnitingGate” crap. By last night, it was becoming an International joke as OS news sites & blogs reported it.

    Surely the following policies are proof of just what a punitive government Abbott’s will be:
    * obsessive-compulsive trash-talking a nation’s economy, because it & its Treasurer & Treasury are too good,
    * trashing its reputation as the classless, tolerant Land of the Fair Go because the only policies the Opposition has are:
    * Rip benefits off Australia’s least well off,

    * Rip benefits off the schools the non-elite attend, by trying to block Gonski Funding by strong-arming Lib states to refuse to sign up

    * Tax Business to pay for a PPLS system which most favours the wealthy

    *Lower the initial tax threshold by 66.6% and remove Carbon Price-funded compensation for all, inc removing lower Tax on Business + benefits for Small Business
    ….Replace Oz’s nascent ETS, which fits the growing number of other World/ State ETS-based Economies, with a scheme which, though more expensive, cuts Oz out of World Carbon Trading Schemes – even LNP supporters & farmers know Abbott’s is a DUMB scheme
    ….Brand, deliberately & untruthfully, refugees as illegals when they are not; because they are exercising their right to seek refugee status in a country which is a signatory to the UNHCR – as Australia is & has been for a long time

    *Ignore the fact that asylum-seeking refugees are an International problem, and Oz, as well as being a rich country with a comparatively low population, is one of the least affected by the refugee problem.

    That’s Abbott’s agenda – the one the MSM, CPG etc have done their best to hide behind smokescreens of personal attacke on the Prime Minister, leadershite and idiotic crap like KnittingGate.

  19. Windsor and Oakie had made it clear back in Feb 2012 that they would not necessarily back the govt if the leadership changed. They are suggesting the same thing now. Difference is that an election is due in 2 months. Added to this, Oakie will not be recontesting his seat.
    The indies should allow for Labor to go to the election with whichever leader the caucus choose.

  20. Will Windsor scare Rudd off??? Does Rudd really have the numbers??? Is there any chance at all of a third candidate cleaning it all up??? – go Stephen Smith 🙂

    I think a spill makes sense, it’s the only way to really end it now

    Massive day coming up – shame I need to go to work

    Enjoy

  21. Let me get this straight. Windsor has been dumping on Abbott big time this whole parliament, but now he says if Labor changes leaders he will effectively put Abbott into the Lodge?

    Of course, it could be an empty threat if Parliament doesn’t sit again. But still, it just seems unreal.

  22. [AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious 3m
    Do people forget that Rudd challenged for the leadership 5 times between 2002 – 2007 and withdrew four times. #auspol]

  23. BK,

    Just wanted to add my note of appreciation for your morning posts. Like many here, I look forward to them each morning.

  24. Road between Hedland and Karratha is now open to 4WD though there is flooding…That’ll do me

    I’m leaving for the Libs though…Broome now to visit my daughter in Karratha for dinner.

    Have a good day….try to talk about somethings beside knitting and leadershit…policy is always a good thng…not

  25. Thanks for all the kind thoughts PB… sadly, Mum passed away on the 18th (her birthday). A service was held Monday and it was absolutely beautiful. She was loved and cherished by all and will be sorely missed. RIP Mum.

    OH’s chemo day today, so will leave you to it…. have a good one peeps.

    BK: I understand.

  26. Muttley

    The Steak and Kidney pie: The flour (pre-mixed with just enough hot water to make a slurrey)

    needs to be added when the ‘mixture’ is cooked ie final step before you take it off the heat.

    Beer, red wine and rum while you were cooking?

    Sounds like you were ‘Abbotted’ by the end!

    😀

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