A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
lizzie:
What a great response by Oakeshott. He was given leaked National party polling recently which he hinted was very good news for him.
Sorry Lynchpin
Gecko, very sad news, my condolences.
Boerwar, victoria:
It is looking increasingly unlikely that the rats within Labor will unite and behave.
Still, where there’s life there’s hope!
Gary at 120:
[Lynchpin, I think some PBers are understandedly bitter and frustrated at what has happened to Labor over these 6 years. ]
Thanks for the mindless commentary Gary. It is not as if I cannot get similar from my morning rag. “What has happened” to Labor over these 6 years is that it has governed, and governed well. It has governed well on any metric I can think of, but one. How about you?
As for that one, “the polls”, I couldn’t give a rats because I believe the purpose of gaining power is to exercise it, not retain it. If voters don’t want a price on carbon or a mining tax I am happy to live with the consequence – that is democracy after all.
Newsltd/Abbott coalition vs rudd = newsltd/abbott have more on rudd then Gillard
Newsltd/Abbott vs Gillard = Gillard wins by default
Had a New Zealand moment in 141. “But” not bit.
[I happen to know that a certain serpent’s first task of the day is to slither into Bludger to check your brekkie offerings…
Does that make a difference to your decision?]
Boerwar
On the basis of certain reported herpetological happenings I will contine the Dawn Patrol links for the time being.
The several comments from those bloggers I respect this morning have served to support my assertions.
Windhover
Abbott wants a more expensive carbon tax
Poroti
[BK
We need your Dawn Patrol . Apart from the content it is a great marker for when any overnight craziness is at an end.]
Hear! Hear! Unless important news is breaking, Dawn Patrol & QT are now, imo, the limit of PB’s debate of the type which drew me to this blog mid2007.
The old PB of happy memory is, imo, dying; but, as news (inc Oz news) becomes more international by the day, there are many many more fascinating blogs etc which do weed-out irrelevant/troll posts.
With news internationalisation come the stimuli provided by differing world views & political ideologies & fascinating debate – Global Blogs etc which hardly existed in 2007 (Most, in fact, until much more recently.)
Trolls’ use abuse, lies, gutter-sniping & the sort of moronic trash-talk most school kids leave behind after Year 10 (all typical of USA far RW/ “end time” tele-evangelist Tea Party tactics & current GOP attitudes) to hijack debate & rational discussion of any topic not of their (or, in mant cases, their troll-meisters’) own liking.
Among Trolls’ aims is the closure of blogs etc those pulling their strings consider a threat to the politicians & policies they abhor.
On PB, sadly, they are succeeding.
BK
You are a gem. 🙂
I would suspect in Windsor’s view that potentially installing Tony Abbott (and I still dispute this notion that a no confidence motion will mean Tony Abbott gets a go rather than an immediate election – that’s up to the GG and an election at this point in the cycle is perfectly reasonable) is of little consequence. There is basically no time left in this parliament, there’s almost nothing of any substance that the LNP can do in what remains even if they are sitting on the Treasury benches. And if the LNP are going to win in a landslide anyway (according to all evidence at the moment) what does it matter if they get in a bit early?
MB at 159:
[Windhover Abbott wants a more expensive carbon tax]
No he doesn’t, he wants (so his policy purports) a more expensive way of abating carbon emissions. Direct action is not a “tax” just because it is paid for by taxes and it is certainly does not put a “price on carbon.”
Jackol
what evidence media agenda propaganda polls ?
Stephen Smith presser/address shortly on 24
jackol
like with the others who try to claim the media agenda polls as evidence if this was a court
you would be thrown out because those opinion polls are fantasy
[Gary
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:43 am | PERMALINK
I think ML you’ve just admitted you’re just here to stir and have a laugh at others expense. Nice one.]
Right, so you don’t think its about some of you guys being sore losers then?
I’ve just caught up. I understand where you’re coming from, BK, but I’m addicted to your Dawn Patrol – especially the cartoonists. You introduced me to David Pope and I’ll always be grateful for that.
It’s hard not to be depressed. The bullies seem to be winning.
Opinion polls are not even 1% accurate
“90% of O voters “happy with how things were going” according to O on internal polling*
* done by the unions!”
* not done by NEWS!
Windhover
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:18 am | PERMALINK
MB at 159:
Windhover Abbott wants a more expensive carbon tax
No he doesn’t, he wants (so his policy purports) a more expensive way of abating carbon emissions. Direct action is not a “tax” just because it is paid for by taxes and it is certainly does not put a “price on carbon.”
——-
Malcolm turnbull explains it
Tony will have a price on carbon , it will be more expensive for the taxpayer, households , businesses
Windhover @ 163
Even in the direct action is says
the government will intervene on households,businesses to pay for the carbon they use
Regarding the deterioration of the quality of PB, some of that is in the eye of the beholder, no doubt.
I began to read and take part because I was interested in the “behind the scenes” explanations of what the general public saw. To a certain extent, that still happens, although some of the most valuable contributors have moved house across the road.
I have never seen PB as a place to barrack for a favourite, but rather to talk around options and outcomes. I hate labels on posters, as I regard myself more as a spectator and seeker after truth. (voice from the corner says :she’s up herself, isn’t she)
I have to go out fairly soon, so will miss some of the day’s reactions to events.
Windhover
if the media was honest and fair
Abbott would not be leader , The Gillard government would be heading for a big win
BREAKING NEWS! Fool Gilbert.
The BS breaking news from last night was indeed BS. Stand by for more BS.
Or is this BS too?
Abbott is deliberately lying
when he says there will be no carbon price/tax under a coalition government
“Beer, red wine and rum while you were cooking?”
I confess I did finish the Guinness but a small sip of red occasionally to cleanse the palate while cooking was all. Hot liquids, flames and booze all together don’t do it for me!
Rum & Bonox is for VERY cold mornings. Try it – you’ll see what I mean!
I intend to do the pie again but using venison as not everyone likes kidney (dunno why!). I’ll report when complete.
Gecko.
Having lost my parents, and gone through OH’s chemo, I can assure you, you are in my thoughts. My most sincere sympathy to you and yours. Stay strong.
I hope Gillard survives the week as PM.
I will still be voting for windsor , he went into the 2010 election on
carbon pricing
nbn
best for new england
and regional Australia
Victoria
“There is a part of me that wants to believe there is a method to the current madness being displayed in the Labor party, and it will all work out in the end. But it is most likely wishful thinking on my part”
Only according to the polls. Wait for reality on September 14th.
rummel
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:31 am | PERMALINK
I hope Gillard survives the week as PM.
————
yes
you and mod lib will be voting for labor
“@GeorgeNegus: Our lazy obsession with ‘leadership’ misses the democratic point. I vote for a party’s ideology – not its leader!”
[“There is a part of me that wants to believe there is a method to the current madness being displayed in the Labor party, and it will all work out in the end. But it is most likely wishful thinking on my part”]
Omit “most likely”, substitute “definitely”.
A very unusual event in the Arab world:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-qatari-sheikh-from-sandhurst-whos-been-given-the-keys-to-the-capital-8673761.html
Guytaur
I agree with George Negus.
And with Oakey, who said this morning “I want to see Rudd’s and Abbott’s policies, and I have seen either yet.”
MB
[I will still be voting for windsor]
Good on you.
have = haven’t
Best I give up, I think.
Stop being naughty Rummel you’re confusing the Maguire out of Bob..
“@ABCNews24: Defence Minister Stephen Smith is delivering a statement in the House of Representatives. Watch live: http://t.co/vrkYQtO4hK #auspol”
lizzie @157
Not that there is anything wrong with that 😉
presumably Rudd’s policies would be ALP policies?
Rosemour or Less
mod lib and rummel have admitted they are not voting for the coalition while abbott is leader
Windsor presser Now
poroti
🙂
“@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Independent MP @TonyWindsorMP is addressing the media on the hung parliament and 457 Visas http://t.co/vrkYQtO4hK #auspol”
Ta, shellbell. It’s bitterly cold here with noisy wind.
Front hit very suddenly yesterday; so suddenly, there was still some sun & blue sky when I decided to pick an orange & mandarin for my daily vitamin C fix. By time I’d put on “slides”, opened back door, walked towards orange tree, the first cold light wind-driven rain hit my face!
So I’m fully dressed, but back under the doona – whence I’ll venture out only for food & coffee. Cat’s doing a postage stamp on the heater.
“@ClayLucas: Tony Windsor not contesting next election. #auspol”
Windsor out as well!
[189
Rosemour or Less
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:40 am | PERMALINK
Stop being naughty Rummel you’re confusing the Maguire out of Bob..]
I’m not. I hope Gillard is PM and leader of Labor at the election