A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
CTar1
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:44 am | PERMALINK
Windsor out as well!
—————————
Lol , labor gets my vote then
Barnaby as Deputy PM *shudder*
MB – Bummer
[Lol , labor gets my vote then]
Next best choice.
I’m even more depressed now. Windsor’s integrity will be sorely missed.
guytaur
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:47 am | PERMALINK
Barnaby as Deputy PM *shudder*
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If there is a another well known independent joyce will not be elected
MB
I sure hope you are right.
labor and independent will be my top 2
joyce is last
“@endofthebitumen: Independents Day !”
still hoping
Oakeshott and Windsor , tells the public what Abbott begged them
“@tasmarshall: With these comments on long-term decision making I guess we are seeing why Windsor has won 22yrs worth of elections #auspol”
[CTar1
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:51 am | PERMALINK
ML – I thought you were going away for a while.]
Been and back….was a hoot!
Lyne +1 (N=105)
New England +1 (N=106)
Windsor and Oakeshott… 2 gutless wonders afraid of their electorates verdict.
And I had to LOLCOPTER at this comment:
[“The problem is the polls show I’d probably win…but I don’t really want to leave in three years’ time,” Mr Windsor says.]
No mate, the polls say you were going to get flogged, why lie?
Perhaps Tony Windsor will now feel free to reveal what he had on his phone ?
Few people fleeing the Liberal tsunami now
Why would Windsor claim the polls were showing he was going to win?
It’s looney tunes stuff…
Australian politics, as crappy as it currently may be, will be much the worse for not having Tony Windsor in parliament.
Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:53 am | PERMALINK
CTar1
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:51 am | PERMALINK
ML – I thought you were going away for a while.
Been and back….was a hoot!
Lyne +1 (N=105)
New England +1 (N=106)
————————–
if on election day
Labor 51% – 49%
how are you going to explain that
sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 9:53 am | PERMALINK
What polls show windsor would lose the pro coalition media polls
Some more Gillard achievements to add to the list:
– Destroyed the careers of 2 Independents
– Got Barnyard Joyce elected to the lower house an achievement even the Coalition couldn’t achieve
[if on election day
Labor 51% – 49%
how are you going to explain that]
If the ALP win 51% to 49% I will admit you were right and I was wrong!
If the ALP loses badly will you admit that I was right and you were wrong?
I’m looking forward to seeing Joyce in the lower house in question time.
I dont agree with windsor about the media
Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:00 am | PERMALINK
If the ALP loses badly will you admit that I was right and you were wrong?
————————————————————
Not much else i could do 🙂
Its just that I am not sure you actually did that with the Northern Tablelands by-election!!!!!
“@genericleftist: Windsor says he may back Abbott if Labor does not sort out their leadership problems. #spill #breaking”
lol i wish I was a cartoonist.
Labor plane is on fire and going down.
windsor and Oakshott are standing at the door with parashutes on. They are giving the thumbs up to the horrified labor passengers. In the other hand windsor is holding a petrol can and Oakshott is holding matches.
Haha Gold!
[Not much else i could do]
Did you ever admit you got the Northern Tablelands prediction terribly wrong?
[I’m looking forward to seeing Joyce in the lower house in question time.]
The question will be when (not if) he’ll end up with both feet in his mouth.
Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:05 am | PERMALINK
Its just that I am not sure you actually did that with the Northern Tablelands by-election!!!!!
—————–
it shows how opinion polls are not accurate does it
why you can not say these media biased driven pols are accurate
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:07 am | PERMALINK
Not much else i could do
Did you ever admit you got the Northern Tablelands prediction terribly wrong?
————-
Yes
“@mpesce: And Warren Truss has just hired a food-taster.”
Windsor is itching for abbott to make the fatal call for a no confidence motion
so he and the independents can rip into abbott
Windsor is now talking about
Abbott’s failure as a leader
Windsor wedging the media
Windsor may spill the beans on abbott
media protects abbott by changing the topic
ML
[Been and back….was a hoot!]
A quick out and back!
I assume the major purpose wasn’t tourism.
the media wont be able to protect abbott if he calls a no confidence motion
“@geeksrulz: Howard and Turnbull had a fixed price on carbon moving to an ETS. #auspol”
media doesnt want ot hear anything negative about the coalition
again they interrupted windsor
when he was saying morrison breached the protocol
rummel
[I’m looking forward to seeing Joyce in the lower house in question time.]
They’ll need to get an interpreter.
Windsor just class.
And people claim the media isnt pro coalition
“@CanberraCamper: In statements, PM has praised Oakeshott as a “man of energy and ideas” and Windsor as “one of Australia’s great parliamentarians” #auspol”
Bugger there goes what was shaping up to be the best battle of the election – Windsor v Joyce. It also all but assures we will get Abbott/Joyce PM/DPM team heaven help us all 🙂
MB you may as well relax now as there is not much left for you to fight for. You have earned the rest.
What is the point of waiting till September?
Parliment should be disolved after the last sitting of the senate. What can Gillard possibly achieve having such a gap between the last sitting date and the calling of the election?
It would be interesting if Rudd Supporters threaten to call a no-confidence motion on Gillard – Wonder what abbott would do?
Meguire Bob
Actaully the Northern tableland results showed the polsters was pretty accurate. As did the ACT election, As did the Qld election, As did the WA election, As did the NSW election.
All of these showed a late drift to the Liberals, but the result was as per the pollsters
The only election the Pollster got it wrong was the NT election, where the pollster did not made much effect (2 polls) and were too lazy to poll the Aborigines community and did not see the late swing to the Liberals
Perhaps all the polls company had missed the Meguire Bob constituency and missed the ALP landslide that is to come
But when people like you are saying the best case scenario for the ALP is 51-49. I am going to suggest the pollsters are pretty accurate
Windsor and Oakeshott getting ready to dump Labor?
[241
CTar1
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:18 am | PERMALINK
rummel
I’m looking forward to seeing Joyce in the lower house in question time.
They’ll need to get an interpreter.]
Lol, it’s going to be fun to watch
davidwh
The trend on election day favours labor
opinion polling have a poor record
hewson,beazley,lantham is evidence