BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

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  1. “@NewsSYN: #BREAKING: The federal govt. has committed $6million over 3 years to ensure a #digitalfuture for community radio”

  2. 🙁

    Without Tony Windsor, who can we look to in the parliament for sensible comments now?

    And Oakeshott really believed in the parliament as a way to get the best for this country.

    We need more independents like them who are outside the adversarial to-and-fro of the major parties.

  3. “@farrm51: Bronwyn Bishop walked into Windsor presser and approached a well-dressed woman. ‘Has he said anything yet?’ she asked.1/2”

    ‘Yes, he’s not sanding,’ replied well-dressed woman. Silently BB left having met Lyn Windsor for the 1st time. 2/2

  4. MB you remind me of Arnie in I think it was the second Terminator movie when the light continued to shine in his eyes as he was lowered into that vat of molten metal and even right at the end as his head slipped below the surface he gave the thumbs-up.

  5. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:31 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob you are a dickhead.

    You never admitted you got your Northern Tablelands prediction wrong you just go off on a “it’s all the meedja, blame the polls” rant.]

    Please don’t call MB a dickhead…… Anyway it was the vibe that let MB down.

  6. “”The problem is the polls show I’d probably win…but I don’t really want to leave in three years’ time,” Mr Windsor says.

    No mate, the polls say you were going to get flogged, why lie?”

    Windsor did not, and does not lie, you arrant clod!

    If you had the faintest grain of sensibility you would have seen that Windsor has health issues.

    You are such an ignorant clown!

  7. Sean tisme

    i already have over a month ago, why do the coalition supporters and anti gillard supporters never move on with the present

  8. it seems the only ones who can move on with present and future are labor, other members of parliament who are non coalition

    Labor and other supporters can move on

  9. With all this bad news, could we get a tiny bit of good news and get that annoying twit Sean Tisme banned?

    He is far more irritating and destructive of this blog than Bemused ever was, and his sole reason for being here seems just to piss people off.

  10. What Meguire Bob want to say is

    davidwh

    Until the opinion polling start to Show the ALP winning it will be credible

    I heard no complain in here when Rudd was leading 60-40, I heard no complain in here when at the last election the polls showed Julia leading but the late swing going to the Liberals, when Real Julia came out …. but now that the Liberals are leading ….

  11. BK I want to join the chorus of Pbers thanking you for you Dawn Patrol efforts and asking you the please go on. By sparing g me from wading through newspaper sites you have saved me much pain & effort.

    As for the standard of comments it is true that we have a few that are trolling for bites, but as in all blogs the best way of dealing with them is to ignore them. They either get bored and go away or change their style to be more acceptable even ingratiating. That is of course until hubris brings out their true rummel like personalities 🙂

    Of course posters with different views who are prepared to explain and defend their views in a robust but civil way should be encouraged and I’m afraid that also doesn’t always happen.

  12. IN UK, more NoTW/ Murdoch media corruption revealed:

    Met supergrass scandal – corrupt private investigators infiltrate witness-protection programme: Police officers knew for years about the crucial security breach – but did nothing

    Days after the Metropolitan Police was rocked by incendiary claims that officers took part in a smear campaign against the family of the murdered black teenager Stephen Lawrence, The Independent can disclose that private investigators (PIs) were employed by organised crime gangs to try to intimidate witnesses who had agreed to give evidence in high-profile trials.

    *Scotland Yard uncovered the shocking intelligence up to 15 years ago but, incredibly, did next to nothing to stop the private detectives, who also worked for the News Of The World. A registered police informant codenamed “Michael Green”, who spent years undercover working with a corrupt firm of PIs, warned his handlers at the Met that his colleagues were trying to locate “supergrasses” under police protection and “actively worked on them to withdraw their damaging allegations”.

    But, for reasons yet to become clear, the Met failed to charge or even arrest the investigators for intimidating key witnesses. One of the supergrasses who was approached while under police protection later withdrew all of his original testimony, resulting in the collapse of a major criminal trial.

    The news comes days after a former Met officer, Peter Francis, claimed he was asked find “dirt” and spy on Stephen Lawrence’s relatives in a bid to undermine the campaign to bring his killers to justice.

    NB * My bolding

    THAT’s how low Murdoch’s minions are prepared to stoop!

    THAT’s the standard of the Media Baron who wants to control Australian politics through a compliant Prime Minister & his government!

    Any guesses how long before Oz media, esp NewsLtd & other news outlets which regurgitate its lines, report this latest development in the criminal activities of journalists & PI’s during the time Murdoch’s UK company employed them.

  13. M Bob did acknowledge that he was wrong about N Tablelands. I agree that his railing against the polls is silly.

    Very sorry to see Windsor retire. I rank him with Kim Beazley as the most admirable people in politics while I’ve been here.

  14. Yay!

    Letter from my surgeon – I’ve been upgraded to a Category 2, which means I should be operated on within the next 3 months!!!

  15. dovif
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:39 am | PERMALINK
    What Meguire Bob want to say is

    davidwh

    Until the opinion polling start to Show the ALP winning it will be credible

    ————————————————————–

    No ,

    —————-

    dovif
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:39 am | PERMALINK

    I heard no complain in here when Rudd was leading 60-40,

    —————————————————–
    it shows why opinion polling have a poor record in predicting the election result , because its not reality

  16. Psephos
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:41 am | PERMALINK
    I agree that his railing against the polls is silly.

    —————–

    well explain how the morgan poll changed all of a sudden from having labor in the lead, to inline with the pro coalition media opinion polling

    after newsltd publicly criticise morgan poll

  17. Tony Windsor retires:
    [Tony Windsor has joined fellow independent MP Rob Oakeshott in announcing that he is quitting politics.

    Mr Windsor, the Member for New England, made his announcement in Canberra hours after it was revealed Mr Oakeshott would also not contest the next election.

    Flanked by his wife and daughter, a teary Mr Windsor says he has a health issue that is currently being looked at.]
    I genuinely hope he is not too ill. He is a great loss. A combination of intellect, courage and integrity that is not exceeded by anyone in this parliament IMO.

    It is sad to say but the constant denigration people like Windsor have received can harm people’s health.

  18. There is no strong defense anyone can put up to say the opinion polling companies are not forced by the pro coalition media to follow their agenda

  19. Meguire Bob

    Opinion polls are not there to predict election result, it is there as a snap shot on who will win an election if held today, for that purpose it is completely accurate.

    For example, when Abbott assumed leadership for the Liberals, the Liberal result improved. The problem with the ALP is not the Media, it is its many stuff up of policies, from Asylum seeker, to the Carbon tax the Greens told us to have.

    When Julia’s election platform is Gonski, NBN and Disability scheme

    2 of which had not happened (and might never will) and the other one is way behind schedule and had not reach 30% of Australians. It tells us how badly the ALP had gone the last 6 years

  20. dovif
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:50 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob

    Opinion polls are not there to predict election result, it is there as a snap shot on who will win an election if held today, for that purpose it is completely accurate.

    ——————–

    Well you agree with the point that they are fantasy

    The polling can not be accurate because the question is not true

  21. [well explain how the morgan poll changed all of a sudden from having labor in the lead, to inline with the pro coalition media opinion polling]

    Polling is not an exact science, whatever pollsters claim. Polls move around for no particular reason. Trying to micro-analyse poll movements in that way is folly. But taken together over time, they give a reasonably accurate picture. When every poll over several weeks shows Labor polling below 45% 2PV, we have to accept that is a fact.

  22. Such is Old Media’s pathological obsession with all things to do with leadershit …they singularly failed to get the story of the day …Oakey & Windsors decision not to re-contest the next election…

    …& they call themselves ‘insiders’!!

  23. Dovif

    reason why opinion polling can not be accurate ,

    1- they do not give any indication of what area is being polled

    2- they can not be accurate because less then 1% of the population is asked on the media’s agenda

  24. [Windsor did not, and does not lie, you arrant clod!]

    Which poll says Windsor would win, lets see it.

    All the polls I have seen say he is gone for all money

  25. [CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:14 am | PERMALINK
    ….
    I assume the major purpose wasn’t tourism.]

    It was about half and half! Went to Scandinavia and London en route back to Sydney and gave myself a little time so that I was not rushing straight back. Had an absolute blast actually!

    Had lunch in that restaurant made famous or infamous by the Nigella Lawson incident, although I had to be told by a friend that that was the location as it hadn’t twigged….and certainly not the reason I wanted to dine there! The seafood was amazing by the way… 🙂

  26. I’ve been crunching and crunching NSW polling figures, trying to figure out which seats will contribute to the swing of 7.5% away from the ALP without super-saturing LNP support in rusted on areas.

    ALP had a primary vote of 25.6, Greens had a primary vote of 10.3. LNP 51.2. Because of OPV, I can really only use the primary vote of the LNP.

    I’ve got the LNP with a primary of around 50-53 and the ALP at 25 – 28 (green at 9%) which is at a similar level.

    At the state election, the ALP primary vote equated to a net total of just more than one fifth (20/93) of the seats.

    There are 48 seats in NSW federally – so this nets about 10 to 12 seats in NSW. Applying the state swings to the federal seats

    Which gives the LNP 13 on a 7.4% swing on a state level plus Watson, Fowler and McMahon.

  27. Psephos
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 10:53 am | PERMALINK

    Polling is not an exact science, whatever pollsters claim. Polls move around for no particular reason.

    ——————

    Morgan polling only change when newsltd criticise it and now are on the same link ever since

    im sorry but there is no defense , the opinion polling is only run on the media agenda

  28. zoomster

    Great news. Good on you going to bat for yourself and others in the same situation even if it is just an admin error at Dr’s Office.

  29. One bit of good news: Democrat Ed Markey is leading Republican Gabriel Gomez 51-48 with 49% of the vote counted in the Massachusetts special Senate election.

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