Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. [wal kolla

    [Gillard Knitted while Canberra Burned]

    OUCH! Very mixed metaphor. Do you mean “fiddled”?

    Or

    Gillard knitted, a la Madam Defarge, as Toffs’ & wannabes’ heads fell from the guillotine?

  2. [You either approve of 457 visas or you don’t.]

    What a load of simplistic bollocks.

    I approve of taxation. That doesn’t mean I think I should pay all my income in tax.

    I approve of migration. That doesn’t mean I think we should have open borders.

    I approve of transparency in government, but that doesn’t mean I think governments shouldn’t keep some things secret.

    There wouldn’t be a single law on the statute books which operates on this principle.

  4. fredex,

    [ http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/joe-hockeys-tough-stand-toe-the-official-party-line-or-else/story-e6frfkp9-1226656522066#ixzz2VBbeVwUI ]

    Thanks for posting that. I had indeed missed it. And on a Murdoch site! What is the world coming to??? It must herald the Knitters Apocalypse!

    [ In a bid to crack down on ill-discipline in Coalition ranks, he has banned any candidate or MP speaking publicly about a Coalition election policy unless first getting approval from the leader’s office or the campaign head office. ]

    Of course, the subliminal message Limited News is not so subtly trying to convey is that the Coalition actually has some policies its MPs are just dying to talk about … but Oh, so sorry … Tony says “No!” …. BZZZT!

  5. wal koola

    madame lafarge came straight to mind. sorry

    o well at least there’s been a bit of old fashioned hope, excitement, yes argy bargy in past two weeks, even if its not about the main election. absolutely tired of propping this government up, agin the odds, because of problems of its own creation. three long years

  6. Great quote from Gareth Evans, Socrates. That last paragraph in particular encapsulates the rank stupidity of what was done to Rudd.

    ‘The public hadn’t actually noticed that at the time, but has been prepared to believe it ever since.’

    So true. My main wish is that the morons responsible for this disaster are held accountable, but that is unlikely. Already they are preparing for the looming catastrophe by playing the Blame It All On Rudd Card.
    No one is fooled this time either.

  8. two bobs worth@341

    zoidlord

    You either approve of 457 visas or you don’t.

    I approve of 457 visas used as intended but they are being widely abused.
    See the 7.30 report last Thursday. Merely the tip of the iceberg.
    Minister O’Connor is doing the right thing.

  9. Alias

    I think that people in the PMs office are getting their ideas form overseas no Australia

    The PM knitting for the royal is just so, so 1960s Menzies era. It probably WOULD work in the UK where it is still a bit “east enders” and where I suspect there is also a large south asian population strongly royalist (a bit Home with the Kumars).

    In Austalia um!!!!!! Not so sure. Suspect it will be very, very damp squib. There are a heck of a lot of republicans (Irish nationalist) and a lot of immigrant NOT from former UK colonies. The royal bub will not even appeal to the grandmas in this group.

    The appalling abortion raising I suspect was a US import cos it works for Democrats in the US against the Tea Party. TWATS it is a no go area in Australia. Indeed I suspect if you looked at the coalition and labor they would split pretty evenly on THAT issue

  10. Adrian

    You are welcome. At least if I quote Mr Evans others here cannot pass it off as bemused and I being loony Rudd fans.

    Have a good afternoon.

  11. Knitting…hmmm thats substantive…journalistics standards are improving.

    BTW Achmed love yr stuff but oblige us with not using “obligated”….unless you’re an anaesthesiologist with shares in alooominum

  12. Sarah – Tones sculpting a kangaroo out of a couple of a retread with a chainsaw!

    (A swan thrown in as an extra).

    😆

  14. 390
    fredex
    [http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/joe-hockeys-tough-stand-toe-the-official-party-line-or-else/story-e6frfkp9-1226656522066#ixzz2VBbeVwUI

    Some excerpts:

    SHADOW Treasurer Joe Hockey has issued a gag order on Coalition MPs and candidates talking to the Parliamentary Budget Office over fears that new laws will expose the Coalition to greater scrutiny.]

    Oh my, how Stalinist.

  15. Bemused..;” I am rusted on Labor. Many of those that aren’t will just sit it out and leave Gillard to her fate.”

    Like a “Men’s” sign at the entrance to a toilet block…”rusted-on the back…bold as brass for a front”!

  21. [ ‘The public hadn’t actually noticed that at the time, but has been prepared to believe it ever since.’

    So true. My main wish is that the morons responsible for this disaster are held accountable, but that is unlikely. Already they are preparing for the looming catastrophe by playing the Blame It All On Rudd Card.
    No one is fooled this time either. ]

    You have apparently misunderstood the article you are quoting from, and even misunderstood the point of the very quote you posted. I’d suggest you go and read the article yourself.

  22. [TWATS it is a no go area in Australia. Indeed I suspect if you looked at the coalition and labor they would split pretty evenly on THAT issue]

    First of all, if the parties are split, then it’s a relevant issue, isn’t it?

    Secondly if it’s a no-go area you should tell John Madigan. Deals of this sort have been done in the Senate in the past.

  25. Yes, the parliament has been stable and has passed a lot of Bills, many of which have been worthwhile.

    However, you just don’t get the fact that people don’t care. At least not enough people care to make a difference.
    They have an emotional reaction to Gillard, and that emotion is not good.
    At this stage she could invent a cure for cancer and it wouldn’t make any difference.

    Unfortunately they are sick to death of the sound of her voice, what she did to the PM they elected, and sundry mistakes along the way that in other circumstances they would be prepared to forgive.

    For good or ill, it’s all about an emotional reaction now, and nothing’s going to change that.

  26. As I’ve been saying ….

    Why there won’t be a Labor leadership spill Rob Oakeshott: Labor leadership change would lead to confidence vote:mMP urges governor general not to assume independents would automatically support a new Labor leader

    But Oakeshott also had an angry assessment of some of critics – including those in the Coalition – who had run down the hung parliament, saying he “questioned the loyalty to the nation” of people so “wedded to their party of choice that they opt to hate their parliament if their party does not control it”.

    “Since when has disrespecting a parliament, rather than respecting a parliament, been an act of loyalty? Since when is disrespecting the office of prime minister, rather than respecting the office of prime minister, seen as an act of loyalty? Since when is verballing and patronising electors, that they somehow got it wrong in 2010 rather than respecting the result, seen as an act of loyalty? Of course, none of these are acts of loyalty at any level. They are the acts and views of radicals. And many, too many, have fallen into this lazy world of spit and venom at the expense of nation-building and investing respectfully in our institutions that are the foundations of our democracy,” he said.

    “Of course, none of these are acts of loyalty at any level. They are the acts and views of radicals. And many, too many, have fallen into this lazy world of spit and venom at the expense of nation-building and investing respectfully in our institutions that are the foundation of our democracy.”

    Leadershite is, in the main, confected Opposition & MSM crap.

  29. ABC radio in Melbourne got itself into a bit of a tizz this morning over the Julia Gillard knitting photos. The salient points are that it was the PMO that requested that the shoot be done, and that JG wondered aloud during the photo shoot whether it was actually wise. Mention was made that six staffers were present during the photo shoot which was held on a Saturday. The radio discussion was that Julia Gillard likes to knit as a stress reliever – no problem with that. Probably the six hours would have been better spent having some private JG time – putting her feet up or having a snooze.

  30. adrian

    You argue perception more important than substance.

    We shall see. If things continue where knitting is more important than the sate of copper for LNP version of broadband and cost of fixing, then yes you could be right.

    However that will not be the lack of Labor prosecuting a case. It will be a lack of the MSM not doing its job.

  31. [The appalling abortion raising I suspect was a US import cos it works for Democrats in the US against the Tea Party. TWATS it is a no go area in Australia. Indeed I suspect if you looked at the coalition and labor they would split pretty evenly on THAT issue]

    Absolute nonsense.

    If you followed politics at all, you would know that the DLP member had already been introduced into parliament a bill forbidding aborting foetusus (or is that foeti?) solely for the purposes of sex-selection.

    And it was passed in the Senate.

    If you don’t understand that abortion is back on the agenda, then you’re particularly uninformed.

    DragOnista raised this is a recent blog. Yet, rather than spell out the nuance of the bill, she referred to it “just” being about abortion in toto.

  32. [Gillard knitted, a la Madam Defarge, as Toffs’ & wannabes’ heads fell from the guillotine?]

    Except in this case Gillard has an appointment with the guillotine too.

  33. [ABC radio in Melbourne got itself into a bit of a tizz this morning over the Julia Gillard knitting photos]

    Of course it did – it gets its directions from News Ltd now.

  35. Call me a drunk, but listening to Swan’s answer right now on the broadband – optical fibre versus copper – I just twigged that what the Coalition is talking about is fitting every home in Australia with Foxtel-ready connections.

    I have what Turnbull is offering. Fibre to the pit in the corner, and a short copper cable down to my house, about 35 metres away.

    I can get 85 mbits download on a good day (or rather night, at 1am when I’m up polishing off a flagon of tawny port), but can’t get more than 2 mbits upload at any time.

    This is my old Foxtel connection. It used to run both Foxtel and cable broadband.

    By getting a possible future Liberal government to kit out the entire country with Foxtel cable, it’ll save Murdoch a WHOLE HEAP of money.

  36. bemused

    RN had a good bit of 457 visas this morning. IT “rorting” got a specific mention. How can anyone complain about stopping a situation where companies do not even have to advertise for a job before getting in 457 visa holders ? Surprise surprise the blowout (now 600) in the number of skills that no longer require an employer to “test the market” goes back to moves by Howard .

  38. “@SabraLane: WSwan made to withdraw claim in QT that TAbbott was drunk – that it was why the LOO missed the stimulus vote.”

  42. ‘adrian

    You argue perception more important than substance.’

    Not exactly. The perception not without substance. But once you get to this stage when it’s an emotional reaction to a PM it’s very difficult to change, no matter how much substance you have, and the ALP doesn’t have an over abundance, just more that is commonly perceived.

    Likewise the dire MSM have made their contribution, but it is by no means all their fault.
    Notice how they tried to destroy Rudd, but it had virtually no effect.

    It only works when it plays on existing perceptions and prejudices and reinforces them.
    Unfortunately Gillard’s poor political judgement has also played a major role.

  45. Sarah

    Yes but what the F**K was Gillard thinking of raising it as an election issue.

    If you want to sen us back 50 years and have women dying in back alleys way to go!!!!!!!

    Crikey most of her OWN support base will have had the heeby jeebies. Farrell, Feeney, Conroy,Bradbuty, Brodtman Emerson, Ripoli, Neumann, I think might have had kittens on this one.

    Having seen Anne Summers going all defensive on A&A I suspect I know where the stupid idea came from

  46. We may need the NBN in every house going by the complaints about digital TV reception problems. If we lost TV reception how will we know how the knitted roo is progressing?

  48. TONY Abbott missed the key economic vote of the new Parliament – the $42 billion fiscal stimulus package – because he fell asleep after a night of drinking witnessed by MPs from both sides of Parliament.

    Mr Abbott told Chief Opposition Whip Alex Somlyay that he missed five divisions on the night of Thursday, February 12 because he fell asleep in his office.

    His nap followed dinner in the Members’ Dining Room with Peter Costello, Kevin Andrews and Peter Dutton, where numerous bottles of wine were consumed

    Yep…and he’s still asleep at the wheel

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