BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  2. I think when all the published polls are pointing to a defeat for Labor and all the commentary is how much voters hate Julia, many people tend to “go with the flow”, especially if they don’t see there’s much difference in pollies and aren’t personally engaged. It’s easy, takes no thought, no courage, and gets the whole thing out of the way.

  3. Oh dear, now the Coalition “must be shitting themselves” about facing Gillard? I hope that was humour! Because if not, what exactly would scare them about facing one of Australia’s most electorally most unpopular Prime Ministers? Perhaps they are frightened of having too many back benchers?

    Sadly, I think if Caucus decides to walk off the edge of the cliff with Gillard, I think 100 plus seats for the Coalition is absolutely realistic. They won 94 seats at the 1996 election, and to me, the situation leading up to this election looks far worse than it did in the lead up to that election.

  4. two bob

    [He has a weekly radio spot on 2UE every Thursday I just listened to it and he says the same thing every week just as he did on QandA a fortnight back.]

    And then he has the gall to finish off his article with

    [Scores of journalists have also gone along for the ride, writing their 82nd Labor leadership story – in substance, a story about nothing.]

    Pot. Kettle. Black.

    Why don’t they all get that we are

    Absolutley.Sick.Of.It.

  5. Silky

    MB has a rival in Guytaur who has to be an uber enthusiastic, very young staffer who I sadly fear BELIEVES his rot.

  9. Matt

    I think that as in Qld IF the swing is on it will be even MORE than predicted.

    I predict about 25 Labor seats if they stick with Gillard and loss of the second senator in at least two states.

  11. Very funny all this stuff about members of caucus not wanting to “reward traitors”. If the union bosses told them to reward traitors they’d hop right to it. The rest is just window-dressing (as it has always been).

  16. K17

    [Very funny all this stuff about members of caucus not wanting to “reward traitors”. If the union bosses told them to reward traitors they’d hop right to it. The rest is just window-dressing (as it has always been).]

    Amazing isn’t it! You are spot on!

  17. Oakshott knows the 457 bill is just a bit more pandering to racists stemming from the transparent visit to Sydney’s west. There is no issue with 457s that the current policy and rules aren’t dealing with. The government’s own department says the number of serious complaints is small and declining.

    It is a piece of political bullshit in an election year.

  21. Weatherill to take the SA SSM legislation to the High Court if it is challenged.

    [PREMIER Jay Weatherill is backing the legality of the latest attempt to legalise same-sex marriage in South Australia, to be introduced in State Parliament today.

    YOUR SAY: Do you think SA should support gay marriage?

    Labor backbencher and close Weatherill ally Susan Close has drafted the Same Sex Marriage Bill 2013 which would enable homosexual adults who marry in SA to be registered with the Births, Deaths and Marriages Office and receive a marriage certificate.

    Dr Close said she had received legal advice that the SA Parliament was within its rights to pass the Bill.]

  22. No doubt who’s in charge if this is correct.:

    [“It is believed Mr Shorten has been sounding out their position on the leadership, with suggestions it may be “softening”. “There have been plenty of phone calls over the past few days,” said one source close to Mr Shorten and the unions.

    It is believed Mr Shorten would not support a change of leadership unless the key unions were also in support.

    The AWU said last week it would not direct caucus members on how to vote in any leadership contest – despite claiming it still supported Ms Gillard as leader.”]

  25. vic

    [If Rudd has the numbers to gain the leadership. He should put his hand up. What the heck is he waiting for?]

    He said he would not challenge loud and clear many times and he won’t.

    He would only take the position if drafted which is a wise move on his part. He will let the union bosses and their lackies come to him out of desperation to retain their seats and pamper their egos.

  27. “@GreensMPs: 28-44 in the negative. The bill to recognise international same sex marriages has failed to pass in the Senate. #marriageequality”

  28. Davidwh @145
    True what you say but the unwritten preamble to the pollsters questions..who would you vote for?..is preceded by 2 weeks of total media hysteria about ledership, radio shockjock denigration of anything the PM does, tv news gossip about earlobes and cleavage, murdoch slime about asylum seekers eating your children and how PMJG is responsible for all of those evils while being a closet lesbian and living with a gay man and only nice tony who loves puppies and kisses babies will solve all your problems..now keeping all that in mind if an election were held today..who would you vote for.

    I believe the polls are correct and labor will be slaughtered but I think what meguire bob is saying (in my opinion mind you ) is that the unasked portion of the question while not visible has an influence on the polls.
    Meguire Bob is the guy I want next to me in the trenches and I enjoy and support his optimism.
    Dont let the 2GB swamp people on this site get you down Bob.

  35. @Victoria/169

    HeraldSun article had this “I don’t think the Prime Minister is going to step down and I don’t see my colleagues heading off to ask Kevin Rudd to return either,” Mr Combet said. “I mean if he has got the support he is suggesting, it’s available to him to make a challenge.”

    p.s. Is it me or is Crikey slow this morning?

  39. [I’m not sure about the LNP getting 100+ seats]

    I agree with the Windsor and Oakeshottes seat under the belt they are going to get 102+ seats

  40. While I’m having a rant ..had to laugh at media report that Clive Palmer ran away from an interview and that as a public figure he should be transparent and respond to questions from the media, because the Australian people have a right to know..especially when asked by the Murdoch press…you know the ones without an agenda.

  42. You go right ahead and trust him then guytaur I wouldn’t trust the man on anything other than his interest in self interest.

  43. arunta

    Yes. Considering that Palmer has no hope in hell of becoming PM
    Yet their boy Abbott who is set to become PM, has been running away for years

  45. BK

    No matter whom is Federal Government next term it will be interesting to see how they handle it indeed. I suspect passing Federal legislation in support of SSM will happen given the public support

  47. China yesterday, the USA today – the big two superpowers just do no understand that global warming is a myth.

    [ President Obama is preparing regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, senior officials said Wednesday. The move would be the most consequential climate policy step he could take and one likely to provoke legal challenges from Republicans and some industries.

    In a speech in Berlin on Wednesday, Mr. Obama echoed his assertive talk on climate policy since his re-election, talk that some climate advocates have criticized as going beyond his actions. He said the United States and the world had a moral imperative to take “bold action” to slow the warming of the planet.

    “The grim alternative affects all nations — more severe storms, more famine and floods, new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise,” Mr. Obama said. “This is the global threat of our time.”

    He added, “We have to get to work.”]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/20/science/earth/obama-preparing-big-effort-to-curb-climate-change.html?hp&_r=0

    Tony Abbott needs to send Alan Jones to Beijing and Washington to convince them that they are wrong.

  49. two bobs worth and KI7

    The implication of some sort of honour and nobility in these machinations is quite funny, alright.

    The concept of ‘dignity’ in a party losing 40 seats is also a laugh, especially when it will be due to an utter failure of leadership, rather then a great progressive policy principle or the like.

    Those of us who have predicted the impending wipeout since June 2010 due to the nature of the logs behind Gillard, and the pragmatic ‘strategy’ of the lurch to the Libs are entitled to a wry laugh at the ‘going down with dignity’ spin I reckon.

  50. TWO BOBS – I think Rudd is taking the right attitude. But I’m coming to the view that they’re all going over the cliff with Julia. Why?
    The union bosses prefer to retain control of the ALP than win the next election. Other-wise, where will they spend their 40s, if not in the Senate.
    Further, going back to Rudd would be a massive psychological wrench for some people (particularly the key plotters). How do you admit to yourself that you did the most crack-head stupid thing in Australian political history and bring back the man you knifed. Every time they see Rudd they must just want to scream. I have no doubt they hate him. In their shoes, I would too.

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