BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  2. I think the ALP could well lose all their seats in Tassie, too.

    Now that is one state that sure knows how to change its mind!

  4. [2
    Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 4:38 am | PERMALINK
    I think the ALP could well lose all their seats in Tassie, too.

    Now that is one state that sure knows how to change its mind!]

    Well state labor/greens have destroyed the joint, so it’s no surprise there lashing out at the federal green/labor government

  5. I’m not sure about the LNP getting 100+ seats, the other vote looks high enough to elect some kap and pup to the lower house. The LNP primary vote needs to track higher. As for the poll itself, Vic is the only bright light for the ALP. I actually think the swing may be greater on election day. As for certainties – the ALP is likely to at least win one seat in WA, one in QLD, two in SA, two in ACT. Vic and NSW both double figures. If rudd resigns before the election then forget QLD.

  12. And still they persist with PMJG. A laugh cry situation eminent. Laugh on the day at how ridiculous the ALP loses are- a single seat in several states and cry at 3 years of abbott, which will sink in in the coming weeks.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I have never read so much crap in all my life!!!
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-the-thinking-persons-prime-minister-20130619-2oj68.html
    PMJG has the guts to do this. Abbott squibbed it when he had the opportunity.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/federal-election/pm-to-discuss-boats-in-indonesia/story-fnho52jl-1226666552017
    What is happening to our great game?
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/fresh-tension-as-nine-declares-it-wants-a-say-in-team-selection-20130619-2ojd5.html
    This is entirely warranted.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/rogue-planners-senate-demands-answers-20130619-2oir3.html
    Peter FitzSimons give great kudos to the non-traditional head of the NRL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/give-smith-a-hand-for-taking-a-stand-20130619-2ojd8.html
    What a bummer!
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jun/19/rupert-murdoch-new-news-corporation
    Alan Moir doesn’t think it’s the last of Ruddstoration.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope with a circumspect view of the Socceroos going to Rio.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Not a good look from Ron Tandberg.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Davide Rowe’s sombre look at the Doha talks.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  14. It shows how embarrassing and pathetic these media ridden opinion polls , nothing but based on propaganda and lies

    there is no point for any one to even bother to talk about them

  17. Reality is

    labor is the only party with policies , until the alternative can offer why they should be in government

    I wont be wasting my time on debating polls which are nothing but FANTASY , they will have no relevance on who will be the government

  20. centaur009

    Until the media stops influencing the opinion polls companies to do the polls their propaganda, the polls are nothing but mistruths and fantasy

    And news ltd and pro coalition are worried Abbott is going to lose the election by default

  23. Meguire Bob

    It shows how embarrassing and pathetic these media ridden opinion polls , nothing but based on propaganda and lies

    there is no point for any one to even bother to talk about them

    LOL. Then why do you Bob?

  24. And from the Land of the Free –

    The FoxNews Tea Party cheer leader, the odious Sen Hannity, at his very best.
    http://americablog.com/2013/06/sean-hannity-birther-obama-kenya-playboy.html
    What a disgusting gun nut!
    http://americablog.com/2013/06/gun-nut-tasered-after-assaulting-cops-and-heckling-dad-of-girl-shot-to-death-video.html
    Some cartoons on the US considering action in Syria.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/06/19/cartoons-of-the-day-and-now-syria/

  25. Centaur009 Gloom and doom, gloom and doom. Labor dead? What a defeatist attitude. We’re not on for a win in September but that’s nothing new.

    Clear out the leakers, destroyers and then Labor will rebuild with those I see and talk to who are determined to do so.

  26. Gauss

    I wont be from now, until the media stops influencing

    I will be back on later today , one thing before i go Gauss

    The Gillard government is on the front foot , Abbott and his cronies will not beat the Gillard government in politics

  36. Centaur
    [they hate her guts]
    None of the polls have asked people whether they hate the PM (or the LOTO). The questions are about approval of performance and are thus about the political process rather than hate or love of the individual.

    I don’t expect any rational response to this comment because I know this issue is used by posters like Centaur simply to inflame the rest of us. I really think the comment guidelines should prohibit the active promotion of hate.

  38. Good morning. I have always considered James Carleton (Richard’s son, who plays the role of Tonto to Fran Kelly on her RN brekky show) to be a bit of a dope: albeit one with a lovely deep, rich voice for radio.

    But this morning he surprised me. He was interviewing some lying spin doctor from thr Coal
    association about global warming. He only asked 4 or 5 short questions and otherwise let her burble on. But, unusually for interviewers these days, his questions were 100% spot on and the stupid woman was completely skewered. 10/10 to James Carleton: maybe you’ve got more of your father in you than I thought!!

  41. I see journalists in The Australian are pushing for Rudd still.

    I made this comment back in early April.

    Gauss

    Posted Saturday, April 6, 2013 at 11:08 am

    I was never of the opinion that Rudd could come back. The events of Feb 2010 put paid to that; too much ill will and rancor.

    The danger time for Gillard is the time immediately after the budget; Jun/Jul. A poorly received Swan budget and continuing bad polls may be fatal for the Prime Minister with the ALP turning to a 3rd contender.

    If this happens it will be a hoot watching the reactions of the usual suspects on PB.

    I still hold the opinion re Rudd; even more so. However as to a 3rd contender one problem is that there just appears to be no one obvious to turn to. No Hawke. This possibility is becoming less likely.

    I was right about the reactions of the PB Labor supporters though. Split right down the middle.

  44. Further my 41. Not just some The Australian journalists but also their Editorial.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/labor-leadership-stasis-leaves-nation-wondering/story-e6frg71x-1226666540350

    The Australian does not have a horse in this interminable leadership race; we believe such matters are for the caucus alone. Yet, with the rest of the electorate, we look at polling data and anecdotal evidence pointing to a rout of historic proportions. As with state ALP governments in NSW and Queensland, delusional denials of long-term polling trends are unlikely to prevent a ballot box wipeout. Yet unlike those precedents, federal Labor is presented with an alternative path, backed by compelling data. According to a series of polls, by returning Kevin Rudd to the leadership the ALP would place itself in a competitive position. You don’t need to be a marginal seat MP or a psephologist to deduce this course of action might well be in the best interests of many Labor politicians and their party, if not the nation.

    As we have pointed out on this page, Mr Rudd would not come trouble free — he would be confronted with difficult and unresolved policy dilemmas which had their origins in his own imperfect prime ministership. But there can be no doubt the public would welcome the return of a leader they only had the chance to vote for once, endorsing him wholeheartedly. He would need to tell the nation where he went wrong — on border protection, climate policy and economic management — and offer a new prescription. Still, there can be no doubt his return would reinvigorate the government, wrong-foot the opposition and enliven the looming campaign. After a shambolic period, Labor’s re-election would seem most unlikely — but who can say for sure?

    Against this backdrop Gillard loyalists Wayne Swan, Stephen Conroy and Craig Emerson — mocked as the PM’s three stooges — seem incapable of banging the right heads together. Whether their disdain for Mr Rudd fortifies their visceral loyalty to Ms Gillard or vice versa, the outcome is a rigid attachment to a dismal path that can only do extensive damage to their party and the careers of many of their colleagues. And it doesn’t stretch the point to suggest the national interest also will suffer if Labor, post-election, is unable to field a viable opposition.

  47. [The Australian does not have a horse in this interminable leadership race]

    But they’re really keen to find every reason in the world to prolong the race while their boy sits in the stands.

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