BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 42
1 2 3 4 … 42

  3. davidwh:

    I can foresee trouble ahead where the network wants X player because of his audience (read: ratings) appeal, but selectors (which look at the whole of the team) don’t see benefit in selecting him.

  4. [I can foresee trouble ahead where the network wants X player because of his audience (read: ratings) appeal, but selectors (which look at the whole of the team) don’t see benefit in selecting him.]
    A bit like politics, eh confessions?

  12. It looks like investors are a bit wary of the Murdoch empire. Voting shares (dominated by the Murdochs) fell 3% while non-voting shares fell 8%.

    [New News Corporation began trading on the Australian stock market ahead of full News Corp de-merger of divisions

    Lisa O’Carroll
    guardian.co.uk, Thursday 20 June 2013 00.28 AEST

    Rupert Murdoch’s new newspaper company made a low-key stock market debut in Sydney, losing 3% of its value on its first day of trading.

    Class B voting shares in New News Corporation began trading on the Australian market at noon local time on Wednesday (1am BST), and closed at A$14.55 (£8.84), 45 cents lower than its opening value of A$15.

    The non-voting stock took an even heavier fall, down more than 8% to $14.30 after starting at $15.60.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jun/19/rupert-murdoch-new-news-corporation

  14. Confessions I understand and agree with that however I can’t blame Ch9 for standing up for what is a big investment in cricket when CA and the selectors seem to have lost the plot. Basically cricket is in a bit of a mess at present and there doesn’t seem to be too much action being taken to do something about it.

    But we have been here before in the 80’s and came out of it.

  15. With the MSM. metaphorically treading water above the Marianas Trench, if their boss told them to push the barrow of sh!t..the’d push it at a trot!..If he told them to eat it, they’d call for the kechup!…If he told them to then vomit it on the public, his supporters here would rush to cover themselves in the glory!
    Quick-step ; goose-step!

  16. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    It shows how embarrassing and pathetic these media ridden opinion polls , nothing but based on propaganda and lies

    there is no point for any one to even bother to talk about them]

    Ironic words indeed for someone who seems incapable of keeping away from a blog whose entire purpose is to do just that and someone who, furthermore, seems incapable of letting a single report on a negative poll for the ALP go buy without spamming us all with identical, text-message-style “debunkings” over and over and over and over. I half expect to find the Meguire Bob pull-string puppet down at my local Toyworld. Give it about 5 different responses about how the polls are all fake or it’s all a bit News LTD conspiracy and no one would know the difference. You’d get a more in-depth analysis of polling from Teddy Ruxpin.

  18. The problem with MB’s media biased poll theory is that it seems the political parties internal polling are showing similar results. What’s worse this internal polling is finding its way into the outside world.

    I expect some time in the next three months we will see the great awakening rather than the great unhingeing people are expecting.

  19. [David ‏@clubwah 11m
    Barry Cassidy just said ABC news management is reviewing if Akerman will appear on Insiders again]

    Good to hear.

  22. [Barry Cassidy just said ABC news management is reviewing if Akerman will appear on Insiders again]
    Then stand by for a huge dummy spit!

  24. Castle, that’s pretty desperate…

     

     • NBN (the real one) – total cost $37.4b (Government
    contribution: $30.4b) Massively over-budget, behind
    schedule, relying on one technology and now with added asbestos

     • BER 7,920 schools:
    10,475 projects. (completed at less than 3% dissatisfaction rate) With the dissatisfaction rate a red herring to distract from
    the fact the projects costed up to three times the market rate, with schools
    given a ‘take it or leave it’ option.

     • Gonski – Education
    funding reform No extra funding until 2021 – a fantasy
    and a con. Australia has spent 40% more money on education over the last decade
    and standards have slipped – it’s not just about money.

     • NDIS/DisabilityCare
    Another shameless con, a noble cause but not properly
    funded

     • MRRT & aligned
    PRRT The first had a process which antagonised and alienated,
    the second was a pathetic sop which raised next to nothing.

     • Won seat at the UN A temporary seat won by wasting tens of millions of dollars
    and sacrificing our values.

     • Signed Kyoto Meaningless symbolism as we were on track to meet our
    targets regardless

     • Signatory to Bali
    Process & Regional Framework Which achieved very
    little

     • Eradicated
    WorkChoices And swung the pendulum way too far the
    other way

     • Established Fair
    Work Australia What an embarrassment that has turned
    out to be

     • Established Carbon
    Pricing/ETS (7% reduction in emissions since July last year)A policy based on a lie which will do nothing to help the
    environment, while Holden said yesterday it was a big factor in their decisions
    going forward

     • Established
    National Network of Reserves and Parks Another Canberra
    power grab from the states

     • Created world’s
    largest Marine Park Network Another sop to The Greens
    which went too far

     • Introduced Reef
    Rescue Program And this is doing?

     • National Apology Apologies are one thing, the follow up and real action is
    another

     • Sorry to the Stolen
    Generation See above

     • Increased
    Superannuation from 9 to 12% Hasn’t happened yet and is
    supposed to be paid for by an reduction in the company tax rate which is now
    not going to happen

     • Changed 85 laws to
    remove discrimination against same sex couples Stemming
    from a Howard-era HREOC report and passed with bi-partisan support

     • Introduced National
    Plan to reduce violence against women and children Good,
    but let’s see what difference it makes

     • Improvements to Sex
    Discrimination Act See above

     • Introduced Plain
    packaging of cigarettes We all hope this makes a
    difference given the dangerous precedent it set

     • Legislated Equal
    pay (social & community workers up to 45% pay increases) The pay gap has widened markedly since Rudd/Gillard’s time
    as brilliantly exposed in The Age the other day

     • Legislated
    Australia’s first Paid Parental Leave scheme The
    minimum wage for a short time – nothing more than are-worked baby bonus. If you
    want PPL it should be at someone’s normal wage, like Annual Leave or Sick
    Leave.

     • Established $10b
    Renewable energy fund Another sop to The Greens to
    spend on pet projects and unviable causes.

     • Legislated
    Murray/Darling Basin plan (the first in a hundred years of trying.) Which would have been done earlier had Steve Bracks not
    sabotaged the process

     • Increased Education
    funding by 50% A fantasy figure, keeping in mind all successive
    governments increase funding in dollar terms

     • Established direct
    electoral enrolment Motivated by a desire to capture younger
    voters’ preferences

     • Created 190,000
    more University places While cutting billions out of
    the tertiary sector to pay for Gonski

     • Achieved 1:1 ratio,
    computers for year 9-12 students With no money for
    upgrades or maintenance and now completely abandoned

     • Established My
    School Worthy idea, but rushed through with insufficient
    consultation

     • Established
    National Curriculum Full of mediocrity and a political
    slant

     • Established NAPLAN Leading to a whole range of unintended consequences

     • Increased Health
    funding by 50% Another fantasy figure, see comment on
    education funding

     • Legislated Aged
    care package While making almost everything more
    expensive for the aged

     • Legislated Mental
    health package While savagely cutting the Medicare
    rebates for psychologist visits

     • Legislated Dental
    Care package By abolishing an effective program already
    in place

     • Created 90
    Headspace sites And then dumped the cost on the states

     • Created Medicare
    Locals Program Way behind schedule and over-budget

     • Created Aussie Jobs
    package Which has done little to stop the unemployment rate
    increasing

     • Created Kick-Start
    Initiative (apprentices) Re-directed funding from the
    work for the dole program

     • Funded New Car plan
    (industry support) While the manufacturing industry
    continues to collapse

     • Created
    Infrastructure Australia Which has become too
    politicised and starved of funds

     • Established Nation
    Building Program (350 major projects) See BER

     • Doubled Federal
    Roads budget ($36b) (7,000kms of roads) Good if the
    projects get off the ground

     • Rebuilding 1/3 of
    interstate rail freight network See above

     • Committed more to
    urban passenger rail than any government since Federation You can say this in nearly every area in dollar terms of
    successive governments

     • Developed National
    Ports Strategy And this has led to?

     • Developed National
    Land Freight Strategy See above

     • Created the nations
    first ever Aviation White Paper See above

     • Revitalized
    Australian Shipping Just like how well the wharfies
    were going in the early 1990s?

     • Reduced transport
    regulators from 23 to 3 (saving $30b over 20years) Rolling
    together regulations, more red tape reduction would be nice

     • Introduced NICS –
    infrastructure schedule See above comments on NDIS

     • Australia has moved
    from 20th in 2007 to 2nd on OECD infrastructure ranking Based on projected spending, while also slipped down the OECD rankings on
    education, competitiveness and other areas

     • Awarded
    International Infrastructure Minister of the Year (2012 Albanese) Meaningless

     • Awarded
    International Treasurer of the Year (2011 Swan) Meaningless

     • Introduced
    Anti-dumping and countervailing system reforms Good

     • Legislated
    Household Assistance Package Carbon Tax compensation
    which nothing more than a bribe

     • Introduced School
    Kids Bonus Redirected funds and a shameless bribe

     • Increased Childcare
    rebate (to 50%) While catastrophically failing its own
    childcare centre targets

     • Allocated $6b to
    Social Housing (20,000 homes) Worthy but completely
    mismanaged ,particularly in the NT

     • Provided $5b to
    Support for Homelessness While the homelessness rate
    continues to rise

     • Established
    National Rental Affordability Scheme ($4.5b) While
    rental affordability continues to decline due to lack of land release and state
    taxes which were increased by state Labor administrations

     • Introduced Closing
    the Gap While the gap widens in most measurable areas

     • Supports Act of
    Recognition for constitutional change Important,
    hopefully wording will be appropriate

     • Provided the
    highest pension increase in 100 years Good, considering
    they’ve raised all their costs

     • Created 900,000 new
    jobs While over a million have been lost and the unemployment
    rate has risen

     • Established
    National Jobs Board See above

     • Allocated $9b for
    skills and training over 5 years By abolishing part of
    the Howard training centre scheme

     • Established
    Enterprise Connect (small business) While increasing small
    business red tape

     • Appointed
    Australia’s first Small Business Commissioner See above

     • Introduced
    immediate write-off of assets costing less than $6,500 for Sm/Bus See above

     • Introduced $5,000
    immediate write-off for Small Business vehicles over $6,500 See above

     • Introduced Small
    business $1m loss carryback for tax rebate from previous year See above, while increasing other taxes and charges

     • Legislated
    Australian Consumer law More Canberra takeover

     • Introduced a
    national levy to assist Queensland with reconstruction
    Wouldn’t be needed if they hadn’t destroyed the surplus

     • Standardized
    national definition of flood for Insurance purposes Good

     • Created Tourism
    2020 And this will achieve?

     • Completed Australia’s
    first feasibility study on high speed rail And this will
    lead to?

     • Established ESCAS
    (traceability and accountability in live animal exports) While mishandling the animal cruelty issue in Indonesia and
    smashing the trade in the process

     • Established Royal
    Commission into Institutional Sexual Abuse Should be
    wider-ranging and look far beyond their chosen target of the Catholic Church

     • Established
    National Crime Prevention Fund While reducing customs
    funding and seeing an increase of gun availability and gun crime

     • Lowered personal
    income taxes (Ave family now pays $3,500 less p.a. than 2007) While raising the cost of living in so many other ways

     • Raised the tax-free
    threshold from $6,000 to $18,200 See above

     • Australia now the
    richest per capita nation on earth Thanks only to
    collapsing measures in the US and wealthy EU nations

     • First time ever
    Australia has three triple A credit ratings from all three credit agencies No thanks to their budgetary position – they inherited it

     • Low inflation Because the economy is stalling and people aren’t spending

     • Lowest interest
    rates in 60 years (Ave mortgagee paying $5,000 less p.a. than 2007) At emergency low levels in an attempt to kick-start the
    economy. Interest rates should be at more neutral levels as to benefit both
    spenders and borrowers.

     • Low unemployment Higher than when they took office.

     • Lowest debt to GDP
    in OECD False, and only due to the position they
    inherited. Other nations went into the GFC already with massive debt.

     • Australian dollar
    is now fifth most traded in the world and IMF Reserve Currency Thanks to the collapse of other currencies

     • One of the world’s
    best performing economies during and since the GFC Thanks
    to the position they inherited

     • Australia now
    highest ranked for low Sovereign Risk See above

     • Overseen the
    largest fiscal tightening in nations history (4.4%) When
    compared to the massive spending spree they went in upon coming to office

     • 21 years of
    continuous economic growth (trend running at around 3%pa) Thanks to the hard yards done by Hawke/Keating/Howard

     • 11 years of
    continuous wages growth exceeding CPI See above

     • Increasing
    Productivity See above

     • Increasing Consumer
    Confidence False, both consumer and business confidence
    has collapsed over the Rudd/Gillard term – do you just make this up?

     • Record foreign
    investment And record foreign debt

     • Historic levels of
    Chinese/Australian bilateral relations Based on?

     • First female Prime
    Minister Which has been a unmitigated disaster and will
    ensure no women leads a major party for a long time to come

     • First female
    Governor General One of their best decisions, went to a
    worthy and capable person, although they misused her position to lobby nations
    on political issues.

     • First female
    Attorney General One of the most appalling attorneys
    general this nation has ever seen.

  25. [Indonesia plans to use weather changing technology to try to unleash torrents of rain and extinguish raging fires on Sumatra island that have cloaked neighbouring Singapore in thick haze, an official said on Wednesday.

    The city-state, which is home to 5.3 million inhabitants, has been pressing Jakarta to take action to put out the blazes, which have pushed air pollutant levels on the island to a 16-year high.

    Indonesian forestry ministry official Raffles Panjaitan said the government planned to use a technology called “cloud-seeding” to try and put out the fires, that are mainly centred on peatlands in Riau province.

    Helicopters would be sent into the skies above Sumatra to inject chemicals into clouds, which prompt the formation of heavy ice crystals, and so speed up the production of rain.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/indonesia-to-use-rainmaking-technology-to-stop-fires-20130620-2ok6c.html#ixzz2WiBh4VU0 ]

    I didn’t think this technique actually worked???

  26. Basically cricket is in a bit of a mess at present and there doesn’t seem to be too much action being taken to do something about it.

    Must be another stuffup from Julia. Or the carbon tax has increased the price of thinking. Or is it the asylum seekers?

  27. I didn’t think this technique actually worked???

    In most cases it doesn’t.

    If you’ve got a situation where a cloud is just on the verge of forming raindrops anyway then you can maybe slightly alter exactly where/when that rain is going to start falling, but …

  30. Also Barrie Cassdy who confidently called Ruddstoration not so confident anymore. Says caucus doesn’t want to reward traitors like Rudd.

    Barrie Cassidy says ALP caucus has not forgotten Rudd’s treason during the 2010 election.

  32. That’s true davidwh – bring back Howard I say. He made the cricket team great once so he can do it again!

    Where’s Tony Abbott’s “Stop batting failures!” campaign? “We’ll turn the lacklustre bowling performance around starting from day one!”

    “All Julia needs to do if she wants to fix the cricket team is to pick up the phone and call the prime minister of India.”

  33. MARK LATHAM
    When it comes to con jobs, nothing beats a Kevin Rudd comeback. Ever since he lost a caucus ballot 71-31 to Julia Gillard 16 months ago, Rudd has had no intention of resuming the Labor leadership in this term of Parliament.

    Why would he? As a phenomenal egotist, he looks at politics through the prism of vanity. The worst thing that could happen to Rudd in 2013 is to run against Tony Abbott and lose. This would destroy his self-image and self-belief. It would also blow his status as a Labor Party martyr.

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_rudd_is_the_great_pretender_CNPEs6hK8IzYMk9oAXR1HI

  34. “Jackol well we did have our golden era of cricket when Howard was PM so it may be politically related.”

    Yes, of course there was that incentive…the losers were to have dinner with him and Hyacinth!

  35. davidwh
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink
    Jackol well we did have our golden era of cricket when Howard was PM so it may be politically related
    ——————————————————–

    its the fault of the carbon tax and the boat arrivals

  36. [History tells us Rudd often backs away from a fight. This was evident in the five Labor leadership contests since 2003 for which he advanced his candidacy but then withdrew at the last minute. As prime minister, he damaged himself irreparably with his failure to call a double dissolution in early 2010 and campaign for Labor’s ETS – another case of “Chicken Kev”.]

    [After the election, Rudd wants to look like a martyr, the only Labor hero still standing. He can say he offered himself as an electoral saviour but the factions rejected him (yet again). This way, he can start undermining the ALP’s next leader, using calls for party reform to add to his martyrdom.

    In effect, Rudd is wrecking, not running. He embodies a destructive brand of selfishness, drawing people close to him but then abusing their goodwill. Just as he left Simon Crean stranded in the aborted leadership coup in March, Rudd is encouraging his caucus supporters to work for a goal which can never be realised. MPs like Joel Fitzgibbon and Eddie Husic are not smart enough to know how badly they are being used. Scores of journalists have also gone along for the ride, writing their 82nd Labor leadership story – in substance, a story about nothing.]
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_rudd_is_the_great_pretender_CNPEs6hK8IzYMk9oAXR1HI

  37. Jackol if Abbott guarantees a return of the Baggy Greens to cricket dominance then we should all vote for TAPM. Somehow I think it is going to take a much bigger miracle than Abbott can deliver.

  38. Good Morning

    Meguire Bob is right about the polls. Why? Its the questions asked. Until the questions are published and the order they are asked they cannot be trusted.

    So the only time we have a benchmark on the polls is election day. In the meantime they can be all over the place as there is no transparency in how things are done.

    Then even when you accept results of such polls they are still looking backwards and no oracles of the future.

    This is why Mr Bowes comments of unlikely to win is dead accurate.
    Based on the trend the polls are showing its dead accurate.

    Unlike MB I recognise the MSM fantasy on leadership has had the effect of telling voters Labor is in chaos. That does have a negative effect on the polls.

    Unity will change that around. However do not expect much as the MSM will confect another fantasy to run poll questions around.

  39. Unity will change that around.

    Unity a year ago and maintained might have turned things around.

    “Unity” for a month or two now is not going to turn anything around, regardless of who the leader is.

  41. At a time when Australia looks like winning a seat in the UN Human Rights Commission –

    good olde Tony and Scotty (beam me up) are trashing our international standing by saying they would consider withdrawing from the UN Convention of Refugees

  42. victoria

    I liked this bit:
    [After I described the former PM as “evil” on Q&A last week, a prominent Gillard supporter wanted to know why I had “gone soft on Rudd” . . .]

    😆

  44. I’m looking forward to the day when we cut to the chase and companies can buy the right to name players —

    “And Telstra boots it to Coles, who belts it down the ground where it is intercepted by GoWellGoShell, who passes it to YouKnowWhatIMeanValvoline…”

  45. lizzie

    Latham loathes Rudd always has and everything he says should be looked at through that prism.

    He has a weekly radio spot on 2UE every Thursday I just listened to it and he says the same thing every week just as he did on QandA a fortnight back.

    Latham is a bully vis a vis his bashing of a cab driver many years back.

    He comes to everything with his own view as paramount and will not tolerate another view.

    His ego is not small maybe that is why he got done over when he was the Leader of the Opposition.

  46. Guytaur I believe all the polls William uses here ask the voting intention questions first so in theory these should not be tainted by any follow up questions asked. The way the voting questions are asked are published by the polling organisations.

  47. And this:

    [On Saturday The Australian newspaper quoted “a senior caucus figure close to Mr Rudd” (most likely Kevin himself) . . .]

    😆

    It would be even funnier if it wasn’t written by a similar vain vengeful egotist who has taken nearly a decade to get over being beaten by Howard.

  49. Lizzie

    In all seriousness why would Rudd WANT to lead Labor just now.

    I mean it is nearly certain electoral defeat and unless he has some sort of guarantee that if he saves most of the furniture, he can stay on as LOTO for a tilt in 2016, what on earth is the point for HIM.

    It is lose lose.

    He has NO time to turn the ship around or to implement any of his OWN agenda and limited scope to change any of the policies that are weighing Labor down.

    So I guess Rudd may NOT wish to lead labor to defeat (say losing 10 rather than 40 seats), but then be deposed by Shorten on September 15.

    He would have to either have monkey brains OR genuinely care about the future of the ALP. Take your pick but it has to be one or the other.

Comments Page 3 of 42
1 2 3 4 … 42

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *