BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Looking at those Bludgertrack figures the Coalition, or the Coalition plus KAP/PUP in the Queensland case, would have to have some shot at four in the Senate in Queensland and/or WA. Hope to find time to crunch that Senate analysis doing the rounds over the weekend sometime and see if it stands up.

  2. The majority of caucus, probably, Henry.

    The majority of punters, no.

    Depends who you think will help you at this point.

  3. Lefty e

    “Death row feeds off delusions of hope”

    What a meaningless piece of tripe.

    Must try les harder.

  4. Kevin,

    I actually hope to do some gardening, catch up with friends and drink some wine.

    But, you carry on.

  5. Yesiree Bob@2056

    What are the chances of the ALP regaining all the QLD seats lost in 2010 if Rudd was leading the party ?

    Pretty low I’d say. Some of them were quite remarkable wins in the first place and I just don’t think Qld loves Rudd as much as it did in 2006-7.

    But getting back a fair few of them, quite possible.

  6. Kevin B, I think 4 seats to the right in QLD is near certain without Rudd. If Palmer is getting around 15% on the Sunshine coast before campaigning, as Poss suggests, its on. And thats *before* considering Katter’s chances, whci i would rate even higher.

    2004 – Latham. its always a crapshoot with Senate votes, but thats where we are.

    I come from QLD. I left. I swear to you good people, its not anything like NSW and VIC.

    No one from QLD is sitting here on PB saying it doesnt matter who’s leader of the ALP. I can guarantee that.

  7. murdoch’s for rudd.
    rudd, rudd, rudd.
    every flamin’ where….
    leadershit here. leadershit there.
    acres of print. soundbites, soundbites…..
    tell me something.
    if rudd is the answer …..
    if rudd is the one …. to save Labor
    if rudd is the one …. to beat abbott
    if rudd is the only one to do this.

    why does murdoch give him so much space?


    what’s murdoch pushing for rudd, when abbott is his boy.

    cos, y’know …..

    ‘she won’t go away.’
    ‘she won’t go away ….. ‘
    ‘why won’t she just go away ?’
    why won’t she just lie down …… ?’
    ….’and go away …. ?’

    rudd, rudd, rudd.
    they CAN make HIM go away.
    Julia Gillard.

    AAAAaaahahahahahaaaaa !

  8. [ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 1:14 am | PERMALINK
    OH NOES! The Gillardistas are now attacking Bill Shorten! Note a good sign, they really need him now!

    SOME of Julia Gillard’s backers have turned on Bill Shorten, accusing him of using “weasel words” and saying his support for the PM has been weak because he has not declared he would refuse to serve as a minister under Kevin Rudd.]

    Jeezus! Everyone’s running scared because NewsDotCom has made up a story. To ruin Labor. Keep your jeans on, showson!

    You’re almost as bad as DTT
    Although, DTT has conveniently provided 10 reasons to vote for Rudd, that I shall, for your exclusive entertainment if you promise not to dive off the shallow end again, unpick in a knitting fashion for you.


    1.Letting the public attack on Rudd continue – bad look and seemed unkind. First and most serious mistake Gillard and co made. This behaviour is taboo, like saying nasty things about the dead at a funeral. Basically politically inept. they should have praised Rudd and sort of blamed ill health or “circumstance”

    Well, forgetting that Rudd’s demise was executed with near pocket-book perfection at the time, and Rudd was given decency, the only bugger to blame for ongoing media attention was Rudd himself.

    2. East Timor. Oh my oh my!!!!!!!. Looked inept – it was

    No it wasn’t. Gillard approached the President of Timor, the person who actually made decisions about Timor. Julie Bishop made the faux pas about protocol. It was covered up. Gillard also approached NZ, and had extracted an agreement with Keys about a Regional Solution.

    3. Citizens Assembly – Jeepers – How to prove to the world you want to do nothing on climate change – lost the progressive and greeny emotional connection in a single speech

    The Citizens Assembly was an ALP policy, cringeworthy though it was, but it wasn’t on the table during the negotiations for a minority government.

    4. Women’s Weekly “glamour.” Failed politics 101 I think. Very, very bad move. Cheryl Kernot tried and came a cropper.

    Everyone loved it except for you.

    5. Real Julia – Oh dear

    Gillard tried to remove herself from PR control. So what!

    6. Moving Forward, like an LP stuck in a groove

    Better than “I’m Kevin from Qld and I’m here to help” to a lot of other Australians. But we Labor supporters put up with it.

    7. Failure to talk up the economic success of the government because it was too Rudd.

    Bullshit. Labor has done nothing but talk up Rudd’s successes. Gillard hasn’t been afraid of that. Not like every other leader since Keating afraid to talk up Labor’s economic legacy.

    8. Paul bloody Howes on the ABC

    Yep. Atrocious. Stupid move. He’s apologised for it. How about you put it behind you.

  9. I eat my greens like a good boy GG. But I like the meat with a bit of pink in the middle.

    Its all a bit well done lately for mine.

  10. Thought I would check in after a great day on Jersey to see what is happening on PB, should have realised it is that time of day/night in Australia when all the “fairweather” friends of ALP are out howling,think I will have a siesta instead then go out and have dinner with friends who think we are so lucky to have such a good government

  11. Lefty e,

    Yes, I can agree.

    We all should sit back and just applaud the “well done’ job of our Gillard Labor Government.

  12. Even many Repugs now oppose any more US intervention in the islamic world”even Palin is against it
    Finally the vast costs and loss of life have persuaded Americans 70/20 the polls say..against any more military adventures in the M East
    Iraq/Afghan/stan/Syria/Libya /Yemen and now Turkey all in turmoil… so how do any of this help the US policies and people ???

  13. GG

    Thx for your support.

    And we will be out again on the hustings tomorrow in this outreach of Labor.

    Only 4.5% swing needed here. Not so hard.

    Every little bit counts, I be thinking.

    Good night.

  14. Mari.

    Read your earlier posts. Bit disappointing for you. We are there or here for you. Have as good a time as is possible.

    Wave the Eureka Flag! Forget sullen Australia.

  15. Glad I had another look Crikey Whitey,it is as you say disappointing for me over here where the opinion seems to be what a great government Australia has and how envious they are of me, then I tell them what is happening in Oz and they can hardly believe what I am reporting, then I mention Rupert Murdoch and they understand

  16. Mari. It is not a thought I would usually entertain, to wish someone dead. So I won’t.

    Cannot help but be pleased though, that Wen has bailed out.

  17. Crikey hope she takes him to te cleaners! Has it been reported aboutin Oz about the new summons being taken out in US against News of The World ie Murdoch?

  18. I am not aware of specifics. Otherwise occupied last some days. But stuff is on the net. Doubt that the Oz is covering it. Funny that. Clive Palmer has been having a massive go, why did I use that word? at Murdoch. Clive is blasting Murdoch for influencing his press lackeys.

  19. Mari. Last thought before I sleep.

    Keep the Reds under the bed. I am confident that you know when to uncover them.

    Happy Journeys!

  20. Henry:

    [Carlton is a far lefty …]

    He only seems that way to cultural conservatives. He’s an entirely orthodox slightly left-of-centre liberal. I’ve met him on several occasions and bantered with him. He’s an amiable chap, articulate and well-educated but he’s no far leftist.

  21. One cannot help but notice the parallel metamorphic evolution of the conservative posters here with their saviour ; the LOTO…starting a long time ago with their clunking, clumsy syntax and slowly, “growing into the job”, gaining more confidence as they encounter little opposition to their imbecile and peurile rantings and with encouragement from fellow travellers..just like their saviour and hero in parliament..totally lacking erudite arguement, they bludgen and cosh their way toward, not reason, nor logic..but rather unabashed bullshit..and likewise, their leader and glowing example ,then claim that THIS..this zenith of achievment ought to be marked as their peak of success…till the fog finally clears and they discover that they have inadvertantly “climbed” their way into a filthy ditch!….
    So once again they scramble and clamber to the next gully…all the while a bemused audience views the disgraceful scene with the forboding of Yeat’s lines sounding dolefully in their ears..;
    “And what rough beast, it’s time come ’round at last,
    Slouches toward Bethlehem to be reborn…”

    Absolutely ghastly!….

  22. You know the ALP is in trouble when even Fairfax media is turning on Gillard and asking her to step down.

    So much for Murdoch, Murdoch, Murdoch being to blame for all of the ALPs woes. I guess if Gillard does get flicked the ALP drones can’t blame anyone but Fairfax .. And the hilarity continues.

  23. And of course the AWU fiasco zombie is making an appearance..

    “It is the defiant response of a man whose testimony, if he was ever placed under oath, would reveal much about this union scandal.
    Just over 1,000 kilometres to his south, a team of around eight detectives are working full-time on the fraud investigation, pulling together the various strands of a complex affair that revolves around a union “slush fund” and other unauthorised accounts operating from West Australia and Victoria.
    The investigation is being conducted in utmost secrecy with even the precise number of full-time investigators being withheld. “An adequate amount of personnel have been allocated. We are not in a position to confirm how many detectives that is,” a spokesman for Victorian police says.
    But what is known is that the fraud squad detectives have travelled around Australia to interview scores of witnesses – former S & G employees, former AWU officials and others whose testimony could be vital as the team of detectives piece together this complex jigsaw of alleged fraud that has dogged the powerful blue-collar union.
    Police have taken documents from Slater & Gordon’s offices in Melbourne.

    It will be hilarious if Gillard does contest the Sep election, wins and then gets carted away in handcuffs.

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