BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. guytaur

    yes it was silly but so is a lot on PB – fun though – am actually sure that staffers moonlight here for whatever reason so not toooo far fetched.

    a sudden burst of energy – what goes on ?

  3. So easily distracted. The Age talks about Gillard stepping down from the leadership so they can “debate” policy and all you do is debate leadership…

  4. MARKY MARKY 1976

    —RE LEADERS VERSUS POLICIES
    __________________________
    I rather tend to agree wsith your vewre policies and the voters response

    Why would Labor be doing so badly among the elderly if the poll are right(and they usually are)when it’s policies for the elderly have been very good
    This is often so in political life

    Why if there have been good policies in some areas(though some bad ones re Foreign Policies and some domestic polices like the pension cuts to single parents)…why then are the PM and her Govt so unpopular??
    ….though in a way Abboptt/Morison anbd other have givena textbook example of negative politics…and done very well with that line

    It’s true there is a real sexist element in this dislike of the PM for some,but it seems that policies are less valued than we think…and many voters have a very short-sighted view
    In Q’land and NSW the ruthless cuts of the state LiB-Nat govts are a foretaste of Abbott/Hockey polices to come..with Howard’s Black Hole Scare of 1996 a preview of their style and policy

  6. marky,

    Electoral fortunes swing according to the times and circumstances.

    Don’t worry, the ALP Right will be back in charge soon.

  7. I think the country is terribly sexist in its opinions and you are not going to change that overnight, the women bloggers here go mad if you criticise a woman leader, but i think she has done a wonderful job except one point she has failed to sell her policies..I have tried to sway people’ opionion about Julia like Shows but saddenly the electorate wants someone who they can trust.

  8. more bad fairfac this time sydney. now dont tell me gina ghosted this

    ———-

    With regret, Gillard must go, for nation’s sake
    Date
    June 22, 2013
    Category
    Opinion

    Mike Carlton

    Time for Prime Minister Julia Gillard to wave goodbye to office.
    Prime Minister, it’s time. Time for you to quit. As this Parliament draws to its close, it’s time for you to recognise that, for all your achievements, you are leading your government and your party to an electoral defeat of unprecedented disaster.

    As painful as it must be, it’s time for you to stand aside for the good of your colleagues, for Labor people everywhere, and for the nation itself. The plain fact is that Australians are no longer listening to you.

    Prime Minister … you are leading your government and your party to an electoral defeat of unprecedented disaster.

    Kevin Rudd is the most popular politician in the country, far and away better liked and respected than Tony Abbott. For all his many faults, he alone has a fighting chance of keeping Abbott out of The Lodge. Every opinion poll shows that you do not. Better to go now, with dignity, at your own chosen speed, than to be flung aside by your party and the people.

    It will not be easy. Not for you, not for anyone. Rudd Redux will need the saintly forbearance of Nelson Mandela returning from Robben Island, which means no payback, no vendetta. Half the cabinet will have to swallow its pride and loathing. And the Liberals will no doubt feast on the result.

    But there is no choice. It gives me no pleasure to write this, Prime Minister. The decision is yours.

  9. Deblonay,

    You left an n out in this sentence.

    “In Q’land and NSW the ruthless cuts of the state LiB-Nat govts are a foretaste of Abbott/Hockey polices to come..with Howard’s Black Hole Scare of 1996 a preview of their style and policy”

  10. The ALP right can have their leader but if the factions think it is more important to have someone from their faction as leader than Labor will never get in office.
    It should more about finding a leader who the electorate likes and go with them and let the factions control the leader from behind the scenes. Winning should the aim and if Labor is more interested in factional games over leadership or in the case of Rudd not being able to work with him than really it will out of office for a long long time.

  15. Gina is writing Tony’ policies not Fairfax’ especially his on the move North however the Age did mention in its piece but i doubt she had say in it. Actually editorial opinion at the Age is independent.

  16. Unfortunately, Geoffrey, Gillard may just take these comments – The Age editorial and Carlton – as more reason to mindlessly dig in. She really does seem determined to destroy federal Labor. I had thought she was more intelligent and thoughtful than that, but I begin to wonder if she has any insight into her own position at all.

  17. AussieAchmed
    _____________ Re Darwin’s climate
    Your view on the trials of the humid season in the Nt interest me
    Having been there once at that time I knew I could never live there
    …..but how will people survive in a generation when Global Warning raises temps in that time by many degrees

    Will such a life become intolerable ?

    Scientists like Prof Lovelock have seen central Australia as uninhabitable in a coming “hot time”…this past summer saw record temps…so what of the future ?

    Oddly there is a ref. in today’s press in Melbourne about the coming warming giving Melbourne even hotter summers than in past years
    In the past 3 years we have spent time in Cairns and Byron Bay…enying the winter climate there…though I not one to find the cold a great problem,even though this is a very cold winter in Melbourne…not as bad as the ice storm in NZ…and I note a similar cold snap in Chile and Southern Argentina

    I have been in Argentina too…both times in the late winter and did the bus/boat crossing to Chile across the southern Lake District…through wild frigid landscapes and the icy Andes.. staying for a few days in .a lovely lake town/ ski resort called Bariloche in Patagonian Argentina…it being the coldest place I have even been to

  18. I thought AA said he was in Broome, Deblonay, but perhaps I’m mistaken.

    I lived in Darwin for several years. Loved the climate.

  20. [Shorten will never win an election i guarantee it.

    Mark Butler i think could.]

    Yep, if he does what he says and sticks with Gillard, he will never be PM.

    He’ll be “chief eater of the shit sandwhich” as Possum so memorably put it.

    Somebody order a maxi-taxi, its caucus time.

  22. [That’s about a 1% chance, assuming current leadership continues.]

    I was going to make some additional point about this, but I forget what it was.

  23. [That’s about a 1% chance, assuming current leadership continues.]

    Oh yes, thats it: that’s Kevin Bonham.

    He’s a psephologist.

  26. lefty,

    It’s no better than saying he’s a thermometer.

    He just measures things. His results are determined by the quality of his data.

  30. If after next week Gillard is still there then Labor’s stocks will begin a even further downward spiral in disgust.

    Truly it is time to lead her out into the desert and leave her there.

  34. Okay, I’ve read Gay Alcorn’s contribution now.

    Like everything else I’ve read, there is the statement that Gillard has screwed up. No examples of the mistakes she’s made, where they were made, how they were made, when they were made, why they were made, just that she has made them.

    Well, how do you refute that. There’s no time, place, manner or reason. It’s just stated as fact that Gillard has made mistakes.

    Okay, why? Oh, because other new leaders have made mistakes, Gillard must have made mistakes.

    Not fair enough.Actually.

    But, with those allegations safely under lock and key and guaranteed, it’s now alleged she’s trying to play the gender card to gain a sympathy vote.

    Why? How?

    Because of an address she made to women who had pledged to support her. So, she talks to these women about women’s issues to women and that’s construed as playing the gender/sympathy card.

    Never mind that she’s never married, never had children, supported herself, never asked nor got anything because of her sex, she’s played the Gender Card. Riiiight.

    When George Bush addressed a function organised by his Lodge, to support him, was it reported as a “sympathy” vote.

    Nah. They was just good Dog fearin’ foke wot new wot they wanted in a leader!. Cor! Shucks. Man.

    When Abbott plays the sympathy card, because he hasn’t fathered a son, that touches a chord with every man and woman who knows that fathering sons are so important to men. So we feel sorry for him. Geez, that must be tough, better give him my vote.

    But what about his policies?

    Oh, don’t bother the bloke. He’s had enough hardship, not fathering a son. Oh, and that wench who pretended she was pregnant to him, pfft, that kid wasn’t even his. Yet the sl*t made him think that for 27 years. Hasn’t he suffered enough? Gender card much?

    Poor Gender-Carded Abbott? He’s really suffered. Don’t even talk about it.

    Poor Gender-Carded Gillard. Bluddy botch. She deserves everything she gets. Fancy trying to make out you care for your father. Pfft. If she’d really cared she wouldn’t have gone to Russia while he was dying. Botch. Talk about playing the sympathy Gender-Card for political reasons.

    Yep, we get the Gender Card alright.

  35. I know it is hard for so many here to grasp but try to think what might have happened if Rudd had left parliament in 2010 (or if a happy little heavy had arranged an “accident.”

    Most of the damage in the 2010 campaign came directly from the Gillard camp partly through lack of experience, with perhaps one or two blows coming from Rudd and friends.

    Let me repeat these:
    Self inflicted Gillard blows:

    1.Letting the public attack on Rudd continue – bad look and seemed unkind. First and most serious mistake Gillard and co made. This behaviour is taboo, like saying nasty things about the dead at a funeral. Basically politically inept. they should have praised Rudd and sort of blamed ill health or “circumstance”
    2. East Timor. Oh my oh my!!!!!!!. Looked inept – it was
    3. Citizens Assembly – Jeepers – How to prove to the world you want to do nothing on climate change – lost the progressive and greeny emotional connection in a single speech
    4. Women’s Weekly “glamour.” Failed politics 101 I think. Very, very bad move. Cheryl Kernot tried and came a cropper.
    5. Real Julia – Oh dear
    6. Moving Forward, like an LP stuck in a groove
    7. Failure to talk up the economic success of the government because it was too Rudd.
    8. Paul bloody Howes on the ABC

    Now I have listed 8 solid reasons why Gillard and Labor’s electoral fortunes suffered in 2010.

    However many people think only of the “leaks”
    There were two of them so of ten blows, just two had anything whatever to do with Rudd or friends. This is the lack of insight so common here.

    So if Rudd had left politics the rumors about the events of June would have come out anyway – journos LOVE a story. The cabinet leaks also would have happened too. Everyone seems to forget that one of the kitchen cabinet of four LOATHED Gillard and resigned the day of her appointment. Tell you anything.

    So if Rudd had gone and there had not been the two leaks would the ALP have fared any better. I think not. Only if Rudd had pretended to accept his loss could that have happened and quite frankly the chance of that was gone on the first morning, not because of anything Rudd did but rather by the white, white face of young Marcus. A teenage boy who had been clearly sobbing all night meant that there was NEVER a chance for the public to believe that the events were amicable or acceptable.

    So Griffith would have been lost along with Qld and labor would need to have won at least two seats elsewhere to avoid a hung parliament.
    In SA and Vic and Tas Labor already did very well so no gain there. NSW marginals did very well too and the West was always bad anyway.

    Basically without Qld, there was always going to be a Lib victory or hung parliament.

    So maybe time to stop the blme game and think to the future.

  39. [If after next week Gillard is still there then Labor’s stocks will begin a even further downward spiral in disgust.]
    The bright side is that Labor basically has up until the writs are issued to change leader. That means about another 7 weeks.

  41. VERY INTERESTING!
    [The development came as three senior backers of the Prime Minister conceded privately yesterday that they no longer believed Ms Gillard could be certain of commanding a majority in the caucus if a challenge was mounted.

    Senior MPs once loyal to Ms Gillard, including several of her most senior backers, confirmed they were now prepared to shift on the word of numbers man Bill Shorten – for the good of the Labor Party.

    “There is a phalanx now looking to Bill,” one Gillard backer said.

    “It is now up to him. If you want to be king, then sometimes you are called upon.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/labor-leadership-hurdle-gone-kevin-rudd-has-the-all-clear/story-fnii5s3x-1226667837843

  43. [So maybe time to stop the blme game and think to the future.]

    Isn’t it amazing how people want to apportion blame, and then when they’re done say “stop the blame game”.

  44. OH NOES! The Gillardistas are now attacking Bill Shorten! Note a good sign, they really need him now!
    [SOME of Julia Gillard’s backers have turned on Bill Shorten, accusing him of using “weasel words” and saying his support for the PM has been weak because he has not declared he would refuse to serve as a minister under Kevin Rudd.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/victoria/bill-shorten-under-fire-from-julia-gillards-backers-over-issue-of-kevin-rudd/story-fnii5sms-1226667830343

  45. Heh. We’ll all swing together on the gallows, GG. Nothing surer.

    I wont rat. If its Gillard, its Gillard. But I just wanna chance mate. There’s no chance with JG.

    (Correction, there’s a 1% chance. K. Bonham, 2013)

    Who cares if he’s a narcissist. The f*cker is popular. Jesus Christ, I spent my teens cursing ALP pragmatism, now I cant evern rely on it.

    I wish there was some understanding that could be reached, even now. Where’s the mature dialogue, the pragmtism, the scent of the hunt? That rogue DLP splitter carrier pigeon Abbott is flying high, in blue sky, ripe for a Hawk.

    Dont send in the Albatross, Shorto. Dont do it to us.

    Or come out and say it: she’s important cos she’s a woman, and we’re going down swinging for her. Bloody well say it.

    Dont pretend its because its the best option youve got.

  46. [geoffrey
    Posted Saturday, June 22, 2013 at 12:22 am | PERMALINK
    more bad fairfac this time sydney. now dont tell me gina ghosted this

    ———-

    With regret, Gillard must go, for nation’s sake
    Date
    June 22, 2013
    Category
    Opinion

    Mike Carlton]

    Oh, poor old Mike Carlton, it must really, really, really, really hurt to say that. How sad.

    How terribly, terribly sad.

    Tears, wipe them away, Mike. It’s a funeral, after all.]

    Oh how we weep, tears of sadness for Mike.

    HANG ON.

    Wait a Cotton Pickin Minute

    Mike said all this a year ago. In July. On July 11, 2012.

    Gillard must go, wept Carlton

    It hurts me more than it hurts you, bewailed Mike, as he prematurely ejaculated all over the SMH, pretending he was the father who refused to use the belt on his children.

    And what has premature Mike Carlton done since? Predicted Gillard’s demise, nearly every column, for a year.

    Oh, tears of happiness, now that it’s nearly come to fruition.

    And, geoffrey *more in sorrow than anger* quotes the latterly Mr Denmore’s agreement with Mike Carlton as the the ultimate guru.

    Rest In Pieces. All of you.

  49. [SOME of Julia Gillard’s backers have turned on Bill Shorten, accusing him of using “weasel words” and saying his support for the PM has been weak because he has not declared he would refuse to serve as a minister under Kevin Rudd.]

    Ill give Shorto this: he never made a complete and utter tool of himself during the Rudd bash hour back in 2012, like Swan et al.

    Thats cos he’s smart.

    You people wanna wise up. This is for realsies. The hit-out is over. Its game time.

    You wanna lose? Cos Ive got got 99% deal for ya.

  50. Gee, they really certain now 😉

    “With Ms Gillard’s leadership hanging in the balance, the momentum is now building for the issue to be resolved as early as Wednesday or Thursday, rather than next Friday as has been suggested.”

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