BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Triple figures. There was a time when I thought such a state of
    affairs might focus the most intransigent of minds here. Not any
    more. Clearly a number of socalled Labor supporters would rather
    see Abbott crack the ton than consider switching to Rudd.

  4. BH

    Thanks for the link to the Honi Soit article, which I agree is a brilliant read. Funny and saddening at the same time.

  7. It will be interesting to see what happens to the polls after the end of next week when the false Gillard v Rudd v Abbott choice is removed from the public mind and replaced with the simple binary choice Gillard v Abbott.

    I bet the coalition are shitting themselves aa they wait to find out. Hence all the glum faces in the HoR.

  9. Rudd managed to severely piss off over 70% of his colleagues to the point where they removed him.

    Three years later and they are still enormously pissed at him .

    During that time he and his small band of supporters have done much damage to labor through their continual undermining and briefing of the press that took focus off labors great achievements and plans.

    Yet Rudd continues to portray himself as the victim in it all.

  11. According to Joel Fitzgibbon, the leadership issue is “over”. He has no information about anyone approaching the PM to tap her on the shoulder.
    Looks like Rudd not going to challenge, just going to leave the ball entirely in the court of Gillard backers. May be a good strategy to let them know they’ve got to do the heavy lifting themselves, rather than waiting for something to happen.

  13. [It will be interesting to see what happens to the polls after the end of next week when the false Gillard v Rudd v Abbott choice is removed from the public mind and replaced with the simple binary choice Gillard v Abbott.]

    It’s shOws over! Sticking with Gillard is sticking with a principled defeat and I hope that keeps them warm as winter is coming.

  14. [May be a good strategy to let them know they’ve got to do the heavy lifting themselves, rather than waiting for something to happen.]

    Like the dissidents getting back to work and trying to keep Labor in government?

  15. CASTLE – You seem to have forgotten the “faceless men”. But assuming you’re right, you evidently think it’s legitimate for Labor politicians to worry more about their petty enmities rather than the good of the community. Wow. The real victims in all of this are Labor voters (in case you forgot).

  16. [The real victims in all of this are Labor voters]

    I agree K17

    All the media focuses on is Rudd and the stories he feeds them instead of this.

    ALP achievements/bills since they came to office in 2007.

    • NBN (the real one) – total cost $37.4b (Government contribution: $30.4b)
    • BER 7,920 schools: 10,475 projects. (completed at less than 3% dissatisfaction rate)
    • Gonski – Education funding reform
    • NDIS/DisabilityCare
    • MRRT & aligned PRRT
    • Won seat at the UN
    • Signed Kyoto
    • Signatory to Bali Process & Regional Framework
    • Eradicated WorkChoices
    • Established Fair Work Australia
    • Established Carbon Pricing/ETS (7% reduction in emissions since July last year)
    • Established National Network of Reserves and Parks
    • Created world’s largest Marine Park Network
    • Introduced Reef Rescue Program
    • National Apology
    • Sorry to the Stolen Generation
    • Increased Superannuation from 9 to 12%
    • Changed 85 laws to remove discrimination against same sex couples
    • Introduced National Plan to reduce violence against women and children
    • Improvements to Sex Discrimination Act
    • Introduced Plain packaging of cigarettes
    • Legislated Equal pay (social & community workers up to 45% pay increases)
    • Legislated Australia’s first Paid Parental Leave scheme
    • Established $10b Renewable energy fund
    • Legislated Murray/Darling Basin plan (the first in a hundred years of trying.)
    • Increased Education funding by 50%
    • Established direct electoral enrolment
    • Created 190,000 more University places
    • Achieved 1:1 ratio, computers for year 9-12 students
    • Established My School
    • Established National Curriculum
    • Established NAPLAN
    • Increased Health funding by 50%
    • Legislated Aged care package
    • Legislated Mental health package
    • Legislated Dental Care package
    • Created 90 Headspace sites
    • Created Medicare Locals Program
    • Created Aussie Jobs package
    • Created Kick-Start Initiative (apprentices)
    • Funded New Car plan (industry support)
    • Created Infrastructure Australia
    • Established Nation Building Program (350 major projects)
    • Doubled Federal Roads budget ($36b) (7,000kms of roads)
    • Rebuilding 1/3 of interstate rail freight network
    • Committed more to urban passenger rail than any government since Federation
    • Developed National Ports Strategy
    • Developed National Land Freight Strategy
    • Created the nations first ever Aviation White Paper
    • Revitalized Australian Shipping
    • Reduced transport regulators from 23 to 3 (saving $30b over 20years)
    • Introduced NICS – infrastructure schedule
    • Australia has moved from 20th in 2007 to 2nd on OECD infrastructure ranking
    • Awarded International Infrastructure Minister of the Year (2012 Albanese)
    • Awarded International Treasurer of the Year (2011 Swan)
    • Introduced Anti-dumping and countervailing system reforms
    • Legislated Household Assistance Package
    • Introduced School Kids Bonus
    • Increased Childcare rebate (to 50%)
    • Allocated $6b to Social Housing (20,000 homes)
    • Provided $5b to Support for Homelessness
    • Established National Rental Affordability Scheme ($4.5b)
    • Introduced Closing the Gap
    • Supports Act of Recognition for constitutional change
    • Provided the highest pension increase in 100 years
    • Created 900,000 new jobs
    • Established National Jobs Board
    • Allocated $9b for skills and training over 5 years
    • Established Enterprise Connect (small business)
    • Appointed Australia’s first Small Business Commissioner
    • Introduced immediate write-off of assets costing less than $6,500 for Sm/Bus
    • Introduced $5,000 immediate write-off for Small Business vehicles over $6,500
    • Introduced Small business $1m loss carryback for tax rebate from previous year
    • Legislated Australian Consumer law
    • Introduced a national levy to assist Queensland with reconstruction
    • Standardized national definition of flood for Insurance purposes.
    • Created Tourism 2020
    • Completed Australia’s first feasibility study on high speed rail
    • Established ESCAS (traceability and accountability in live animal exports)
    • Established Royal Commission into Institutional Sexual Abuse
    • Established National Crime Prevention Fund
    • Lowered personal income taxes (Ave family now pays $3,500 less p.a. than 2007)
    • Raised the tax-free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200
    • Australia now the richest per capita nation on earth
    • First time ever Australia has three triple A credit ratings from all three credit agencies
    • Low inflation
    • Lowest interest rates in 60 years (Ave mortgagee paying $5,000 less p.a. than 2007)
    • Low unemployment
    • Lowest debt to GDP in OECD
    • Australian dollar is now fifth most traded in the world and IMF Reserve Currency
    • One of the world’s best performing economies during and since the GFC
    • Australia now highest ranked for low Sovereign Risk
    • Overseen the largest fiscal tightening in nations history (4.4%)
    • 21 years of continuous economic growth (trend running at around 3%pa)
    • 11 years of continuous wages growth exceeding CPI
    • Increasing Productivity
    • Increasing Consumer Confidence
    • Record foreign investment
    • Historic levels of Chinese/Australian bilateral relations

    • First female Prime Minister
    • First female Governor General
    • First female Attorney General

  17. Morning All

    Very well made point on RN Breakfast by James Carlton – Morrison is now calling for us to withdraw from the UN Convention on Refugees – the same convention he relied on Malaysia not signing as the reason they wouldn’t pass Labor’s plan.

    Mind you the UN report showing how small the numbers actually coming here are, in relative terms, and this government report gu.com/p/3gkzv/tw on the issue – both confirm we need regional solutions and a return to onshore processing end to this stupid “no-advantage test” imo

    To prove the world is mixed up, “Communist” China introduces a trial ETS while the “Liberals” here want Direct Action where there will choose who gets money – just weird

    ANZ sucks – $3.2 billion half year profit and they want to offshore more jobs, it makes no sense

    Finally – prepare to be shocked, I agree with Sean from yesterday. We need the death penalty for people like Adrian Bailey. The man who told police “you should have the death penalty for people like me”. There is no issue of innocence or guilt in this case, we will spend millions to keep him in jail for, hopefully, the rest of his life – why??? He doesn’t deserve to live after what he has done imo

  18. Sorry about all the mistakes in that post – still waking up 🙂

    100 seats, as if that will happen LOL

    Come on Julia, massive upset win on it’s way imo

  19. castle – great lists. two additions. A column with all the times abbott said ‘no’ to these, and a summary achievement:

    made hard nation-building decisions to set this country up for thecentury beyond after 11 years of inaction and wasted opportunity by Howard and Costello who sold assets, raised taxes but weakened the economy by creating massive middle class and business welfare that create serious structural deficits in hard times, stripped funding from research, innovation, training and infrastructure, etc etc. (and refused to sign Kyoto of do anythign effective, refused to apologise to stolen generations, etc etc)

  20. The imminent leadership challenge enters its third year as speculators keep revising their date of the Rudd coup.

    Even a stopped clocked is right twice a day but 3 yrs of guesstimates, 3 yrs of “next week”, 3 yrs of “next sitting”….time to give it a break and discuss policy.

  21. plus
    I suppose if someone keeps saying every day “it will happen tomorrow” they like the stopped clock will eventually be right.

  22. Castle

    I find the fact that you and other post such a list of “achievements” sad and also explanatory of what has gone so wrong.

    It is just a list of “actions put together by the public service, with NO effort to consider what they have or will achieve and whether the outcome is good or bad for Australians, workers etc. It is just a dreary list.

    What Labor need to do is put the list into meaningful context. Why each of those things is good etc.

    There ARE some very good news stories but nobody is telling them and your List has to be the least effective way imaginable

    Also remove the “spin” bits – they just make you look desperate eg Best Treasurer, Minister etc. These are just political spinning which anyone with even a minor involvement in government policy knows.

    Now Swanny’s ageing Mum may get a warm inner glow from “best treasurer” but it is as meaningful as Clive Palmer being a “Living Treasure”

  23. womble
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 8:40 am | Permalink
    Morning All

    Finally – prepare to be shocked, I agree with Sean from yesterday. We need the death penalty for people like Adrian Bailey. The man who told police “you should have the death penalty for people like me”. There is no issue of innocence or guilt in this case, we will spend millions to keep him in jail for, hopefully, the rest of his life – why??? He doesn’t deserve to live after what he has done imo
    ———————————————————

    I know I am repeating myself. The death penaly has nothing to do with justice it is purely an act of revenge. As long as people undersand that.

    In my over 30 years working in prisons I could compile quite a list of people who are deserving of that act of revenge. (and I would happily pull the lever)

  24. The few thousand refugees seeking asylum in Australia pales into insignificance when the world figure of 45Million is considered, over 23,000 per day.

    Countries that go to war against others should be made to take responsibility for the refugee problem they create.

  25. Morning all.

    [Politicians walk the red carpet at Midwinter Ball]

    And there we have it: the press gallery has finally turned our politics into a Hollywood movie premiere.

    As I’ve said before, they may as well outsource the press gallery to Entertainment Tonight, and get the bloggers into parliament house to report on parliament and politics.

  26. David Ettridge was due to file his new claim against Mr Abbott by 6 June. Note sure if he has.

    If he had he would have published it like he did first time around, I would have thought.

  27. How sad is it that our atheist PM has more compassion, care and empathy for refugees that our Catholic LOTO.

    Says a lot about the man and his Church

  30. womble
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 9:01 am | Permalink
    Achmed – can there really be “justice” in a case like this???

    Anyways, gotta get to work – have a great day All
    —————————————————-

    That is why I talk about the death penalty in terms of revenge and not justice

  31. A list to please the snivelling Creeping Jesus disciples:

    1. Gillard did NOT win the election in 2010
    2. Gillard is NOT the legitimate PM of Australia
    3. Gillard has NOT introduced any worthwhile policy AT ALL
    4. Gillard has NO vision for the future
    5. The ALP is NOT a real political party without Kevin Rudd as PM.

  32. [davidwh
    Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 9:03 am | PERMALINK
    Thought ML would be happy]

    ML is always happy. However, ML now needs to get some sleep (in the anti-antipodes, don’t you know…..).

    Good night!

  33. Australia is one of only three nations in the OECD and G20 economies with interest rates in the optimum range between 1.75% and 4.75%. Only Australia has maintained this through the global financial crisis.
    Thanks to Labor

  36. [The outgoing Member for O’Connor, Tony Crook, used his valedictory speech to accuse the current parliament of failing regional Australia.

    He said the Western Australian Government’s Royalties for Regions program has delivered nearly $6 billion to thousands of projects across regional WA.

    “This situation, unfortunately, cannot be said of this hung Parliament,” he said.

    “For a Parliament that promised so much for regional Australia, by virtue of those who gave it power, it has failed dismally by comparison.”]

    What a laugh considering for the first time in years the sitting member for O’Connor has been able to deliver many infrastructure upgrades and federal funding injections into projects in his electorate.

  38. CTar1

    A wee bit chilly that’s for sure. Puts the current “cold weather” into perspective.The weather guy said the isobar lines went all the way down to Scott Base in Antarctica so it really is an “Arctic blast” .

  39. NO !
    No thanks.
    No thanks to the snivelling cREEPing jesus fake pirate warped deconstructoid lying fabricater CONtradictory fuackwitz harboured and sheltered herein, the ungratefull shiny-arsks.

  40. Another list:

    1. Anna Bligh was NOT hated, she had RESPECT
    2. Anna Bligh did NOT sell off state-owned assets
    3. Anna Bligh did NOT make false allegations about Newman’s family.
    4. Every Qlder could NOT wait to return the ALP for another term

    NO, the ALP had NOT lost an election in Qld since 1986, until

    1. Gillard STABBED Kevin Rudd
    3. Gillard MADE Qlders punish the ALP
    3. Gillard was WOODEN in the 2011 floods

  41. Cassidy on ABC Breakfast this morning. Still has a fair bit of egg around the corners of his mouth. Wipe it off Barry. Wipe it off son.

  42. Abbott, Morrison and the Liberals continue to trash Austraila internationally.

    Even though Indonesia have made it clear they will not support “turn the boats they keep saying Indonesia will take the boats – acting like the colonial masters of the past.

    Now they are talking about changing or withdrawing from the UN Convention. If they don’t support the UN Convention how hypocritical to hide behind it when it comes to the Malayasia Solution. A Convention of Convenience for the Liberals.(not saying I agree with that “solution” just that its hypocritical to hide behind the Convention)

  43. Oops!..repost from last of the last thread!
    Where Thos’ Paine and many, many others make the mistake in simplifying the process of leadership change, is in understimating the power of the person at the centre of that political move…: Julia Gillard!
    However or whatever way ANYONE wants to frame their perception of her time in office…one thing EVERYONE agrees upon is her strength of character and tenacity of pursuit of political agenda.
    When those so-called “faceless men” allowed Julia Gillard to take the PM.’s office, even THEY, I believe didn’t quite realise that they had facillitated that “moment in time” when the first female PM. would be the realisation of that “idea whose time had come” moment.
    That she is there, that she is going nowhere for the moment, that she has enormous approval and representation with the majority of women voters surely has do be delivering the most solid evidence that here is a leader that has to remain in office for at least another term to cement-in the recognition that at last and in the future the roughly 50% of the voting public CAN and WILL be fairly represented.
    Or could it be possible for that gender of the populace to raise the issue, as was done in a past time…: “No Taxation Without Representation!”

  44. Murdoch and Fairfax are this morning going into a super frenzy trying to dislodge the PM and boost Abbott.

    Her forthcoming visit to meet the Indonesian President is something they did not anticipate. As the ABC story on the visit says:

    [News 24 political correspondent Melissa Clarke says the decision to go ahead with an overseas trip so close to the September election is a sign Ms Gillard is “confident to depart the shores”]

    In other news, Clive Palmer has started TV advertising. Last night during the RPA program was a short ad with John Bjelke-Petersen speaking to the camera. Clive’s chosen background colour is yellow.

    Meanwhile Murdoch continues his war against Clive.

  45. I see the MSM. ‘blotting papers’ are reflecting the meme…how about you get some fresh, new ideas and stop plagarising the plagerisers!?

  46. Tony Abbott has made no secret of his support for the IPA.

    Be ready for the IPA agenda to be adhered to if TA is elected

    1 Repeal the carbon tax, and don’t replace it. It will be one thing to remove the burden of the carbon tax from the Australian economy. But if it is just replaced by another costly scheme, most of the benefits will be undone.
    2 Abolish the Department of Climate Change
    3 Abolish the Clean Energy Fund
    4 Repeal Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act
    5 Abandon Australia’s bid for a seat on the United Nations Security Council
    6 Repeal the renewable energy target
    7 Return income taxing powers to the states
    8 Abolish the Commonwealth Grants Commission
    9 Abolish the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
    10 Withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol
    11 Introduce fee competition to Australian universities
    12 Repeal the National Curriculum
    13 Introduce competing private secondary school curriculums
    14 Abolish the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA)
    15 Eliminate laws that require radio and television broadcasters to be ‘balanced’
    16 Abolish television spectrum licensing and devolve spectrum management to the common law
    17 End local content requirements for Australian television stations
    18 Eliminate family tax benefits
    19 Abandon the paid parental leave scheme
    20 Means-test Medicare
    21 End all corporate welfare and subsidies by closing the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education
    22 Introduce voluntary voting
    23 End mandatory disclosures on political donations
    24 End media blackout in final days of election campaigns
    25 End public funding to political parties
    26 Remove anti-dumping laws
    27 Eliminate media ownership restrictions
    28 Abolish the Foreign Investment Review Board
    29 Eliminate the National Preventative Health Agency
    30 Cease subsidising the car industry
    31 Formalise a one-in, one-out approach to regulatory reduction
    32 Rule out federal funding for 2018 Commonwealth Games
    33 Deregulate the parallel importation of books
    34 End preferences for Industry Super Funds in workplace relations laws
    35 Legislate a cap on government spending and tax as a percentage of GDP
    36 Legislate a balanced budget amendment which strictly limits the size of budget deficits and the period the federal government can be in deficit
    37 Force government agencies to put all of their spending online in a searchable database
    38 Repeal plain packaging for cigarettes and rule it out for all other products, including alcohol and fast food
    39 Reintroduce voluntary student unionism at universities
    40 Introduce a voucher scheme for secondary schools
    41 Repeal the alcopops tax
    42 Introduce a special economic zone in the north of Australia including:
    a) Lower personal income tax for residents
    b) Significantly expanded 457 Visa programs for workers
    c) Encourage the construction of dams
    43 Repeal the mining tax
    44 Devolve environmental approvals for major projects to the states
    45 Introduce a single rate of income tax with a generous tax-free threshold
    46 Cut company tax to an internationally competitive rate of 25 per cent
    47 Cease funding the Australia Network
    48 Privatise Australia Post
    49 Privatise Medibank
    50 Break up the ABC and put out to tender each individual function
    51 Privatise SBS
    52 Reduce the size of the public service from current levels of more than 260,000 to at least the 2001 low of 212,784
    53 Repeal the Fair Work Act
    54 Allow individuals and employers to negotiate directly terms of employment that suit them
    55 Encourage independent contracting by overturning new regulations designed to punish contractors
    56 Abolish the Baby Bonus
    57 Abolish the First Home Owners’ Grant
    58 Allow the Northern Territory to become a state
    59 Halve the size of the Coalition front bench from 32 to 16
    60 Remove all remaining tariff and non-tariff barriers to international trade
    61 Slash top public servant salaries to much lower international standards, like in the United States
    62 End all public subsidies to sport and the arts
    63 Privatise the Australian Institute of Sport
    64 End all hidden protectionist measures, such as preferences for local manufacturers in government tendering
    65 Abolish the Office for Film and Literature Classification
    66 Rule out any government-supported or mandated internet censorship
    67 Means test tertiary student loans
    68 Allow people to opt out of superannuation in exchange for promising to forgo any government income support in retirement
    69 Immediately halt construction of the National Broadband Network and privatise any sections that have already been built
    70 End all government funded Nanny State advertising
    71 Reject proposals for compulsory food and alcohol labelling
    72 Privatise the CSIRO
    73 Defund Harmony Day
    74 Close the Office for Youth
    75 Privatise the Snowy-Hydro Scheme

  47. Be like Gough: 75 radical ideas to transform Australia
    IPA REVIEW ARTICLE
    | John Roskam, Chris Berg and James Paterson

    “If Tony Abbott wants to leave a lasting impact – and secure his place in history – he needs to take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister.

    No prime minister changed Australia more than Gough Whitlam”

    How ironic, they couldn’t find a former Liberal PM that he could emulate

  50. This is an absolute farce:

    [Now, there is fresh tension after a leading Nine executive told a business lunch in Sydney the network expected to have a greater say not only in scheduling but in team selection. While Nine managing director Jeff Browne said he was aware maintaining players’ fitness was of concern to CA management, he made no secret of his view on the implementation of any rotation policy.

    ”I understand why sports want to do that, but people at home want to see the best players playing and we urge Cricket Australia to pick the best players every time … we’ve got to have the best players on the paddock to rate,” Browne said.

    ”I think we’ve got a better understanding on that. Last year that balance was skewed too much in favour of resting some players so from now on there will be a lot more discussion between CA and the broadcaster about that.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/fresh-tension-as-nine-declares-it-wants-a-say-in-team-selection-20130619-2ojd5.html#ixzz2Whyzxa8c

    What has sport come to?

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