Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:
• Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.
Further polling:
• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.
• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.
Preselection news:
• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.
• Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.
• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.
I have been reliably informed, usually by National party voters, that every Labor leader in the last 40 years was guy (did you know Gough has AIDS?) Apparently this is seen as a big issue among regional conservatives.
In the USA the Repugs are being crushed by a major demographic event…more whites are dying than are being born..and the hispanic popuulation is growing very
rapidly
http://lewrockwell.com/buchanan/buchanan316.html
[I can’t help it if you’re offended by me making a lame joke about a political situation. It wasn’t about you, it was about the Libs.]
Well you can’t help me being offended by your misogyny which doesn’t bother me at all.
What bothers me is your reference to the Prime Minister’s genitals in order to score a political point about the Liberals.
Are you incapable of referencing the Liberals’ policy vacuum to attack them that you feel the need to refer to Julia Gillards vulva in order to make your Liberal attack point?
In which case you must be severely intellectually challenged.
Did you know that Julieanne Newbould is a beard?
confessions
[“Well you can’t help me being offended by your misogyny which doesn’t bother me at all”]
Right then… I guess.
Like others I am stunned by Sattler’s reaction to his own well deserved sacking. (At least now I can buy the SMH tomorrow.)
[“I’ve given 28 years of my life to this station,” Sattler told WAtoday’s Aleisha Orr. “I don’t want a medal or anything for it but I’ve done a lot of good for a lot of people. I’d like to think I could have done more good.”]
Is he suffering senility as well as Parkinson’s?? Given 28 years? He must be on a salary of several hundred grand per year. It isn’t charity work. Then there was the time in 2000 he was done on cash for comments, taking undeclared extra cash for himself from several major sponsors. He is neither thoughtful nor kind hearted in his usual commentary. He is a professional agitator.
He made an apology yesterday, but his reaction today shows he is not sorry. This was a calculated career move that has backfired on Sattler. He has embarrassed himself and deserves no sympathy. He should have retired already, rather than end up looking foolish.
Nempsy
“The Liberal Party’s Mandurah branch is inviting people to a morning tea with him [Sattler] on July 13.
“Meet Howard, hear his story and enjoy a relaxed morning tea,” their website says.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/06/14/09/05/hinch-cringed-at-sattler-s-pm-interview
We’ll see.
I think the Libs may be canceling that booking.
[I have just had a ‘phone call from Newspoll and answered their usual questions …oddly not for the first time…and some months ago hadf a call from Morgan
We live in a marginbal seat which may have something to do with it
I cite this matter for the rathe4r curious sceptics on PB who think the polls are corrupt and say they are never polled]
We have been polled as well, many times when we were in Fran Baileys old seat McEwen
We had Neilsons and Newspoll pre-2007 election, the RoboPoll and also 2 very strange polls that i figured out were ‘internal’ polls – all about attitudes and awareness of local members/candidates…
fess
[Who, apart from internet cretins has suggested the PM is gay?]
There are an awful lot of Internet cretins who have. I’ve met quite a few conservative people who think Tim M is a beard.
I’ve certainly never met any serious commentator who has said it though.
The Libs have already cancelled that booking.
No doubt the FCPA officials in the US will be champing at the bit to listen to the tapes of Rupert openly admitting that his company employees were making payments to public officials.
They then may want to invite him to defend it all in the US supreme court.
No wonder he was lobbying hard to have the FCPA legislation overhauled before this all caught up with him.
Looks certainly like if i’m going down you’re coming with me.
Also looks like Wendy getting it all sorted before he goes for his porridge.
Rupert meet Conrad.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=street_of_shame
That’s good to know thanks Dio.
Dr F
[We had Neilsons and Newspoll pre-2007 election, the RoboPoll and also 2 very strange polls that i figured out were ‘internal’ polls – all about attitudes and awareness of local members/candidates…]
A party member once told me you could tell of it was an internal poll as they are the only ones who care about the recognizability of the local candidate.
@3912, it would be poetic justice if Murdoch went to the bluestone college
Diogenes
Well, congrats on the Mandurah branch for having some shame. I’m sure it would have been well-attended though.
One thing that hasn’t been commented on much is how professional Gillards reaction was. She even posed for a photo with Sattler after the interview.
Imagine what Latham or Abbott would have done.
She’s one tough lady.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/howard-sattler-sacked-after-julia-gillard-gay-debate/story-fnii5thp-1226663453289
“@PaulBongiorno: Coorey on Lateline ls dead right. Put your money on Gillard.”
Diog
PMJG is class and it shows
[There are an awful lot of Internet cretins who have. I’ve met quite a few conservative people who think Tim M is a beard.]
There is certainly no irony in conservatives holding this attitude, says Socrates, contemplating the manly spectacle of his local Liberal member Chris Pyne, the wolf in poodle’s clothing.
“@PaulBongiorno: @genericleftist yes the facts areRudd does not have the numbers and says he won’t challenge.”
@Guytaur/3921
I thought he wasn’t going to challenge? But rather someone taps on JG?
Anyone tapping JG on shoulder will get “death stare and kick in the balls”. That came from JG spokesman the other day, little realising the prominence genitalia would have in the week ahead.
zoid
Its twitter. Long version Team Rudd does not have the numbers to get the tap. Rudd not challenging is the way I read it.
Um guys. You’re forgetting that an Internet forensic examination of Bill Shorten’s body language has revealed he’s definitely going to tap Gillard on the shoulder.
Just you wait and see, amateur cyber-psychologists haven’t failed us yet!
To be fair to Howard Sattler he has Parkinsons Disease and suffered a stroke last year.
Perhaps this was interfering with his line of thinking.
Some in the media aren’t getting it. The caucus numbers change when Shorten and Conroy say so. That is all.
YB
[What this week has proved is that, as a Nation, we are extremely immature.]
Not so!
What the week proved was that significant sections & cross-sections of the Australian male population – inc LNP, Defence Forces (inc senior officers), MSM – have extremely “immature” attitudes to womeen.
The nature of this week’s “immature” behaviour, however, more typically indicates that they feel their masculinity is threatened by powerful/ dominant women, especially those who “invade their turf”/ “take over men’s jobs” (more specifically political & military “turf” & jobs) or are smart-arsks acting within a closed (“group”/”gang”/”Corps”/ “Lodge”/ “Fraternity”) culture (eg Military; Shock Jocks). The really immature tend to belong to closed/ group cultures.
No indication, this week, that any sections of the female population exhibited the same types of immaturity.
There’s a mountain of well-researched & easy-to-read Psych books, papers, tapes etc on these & other behavioural types, and the underlying causes.
@Colvinius: Tony Blair’s Spokesperson Denies Rumors of Affair With Wendi Murdoch http://t.co/hW0HWeDHSu
[Um guys. You’re forgetting that an Internet forensic examination of Bill Shorten’s body language has revealed he’s definitely going to tap Gillard on the shoulder. ]
Conroy was seen with Rudd just the other day being all “matseys”.
Remember the vitriol he launched at Rudd at last years leadership challenge. Definately things happening behind the scenes might be time to put some money down on Rudd leading Labor to the election.
Sean Tisme
“Perhaps this was interfering with his line of thinking.”
If he said that I would have some sympathy for him. As it is he’s taken the ‘I’m proud of what I said and btw fuck you’ stance I find myself less impressed by.
Sean Tisme
“Conroy was seen with Rudd just the other day being all “matseys”.”
It’s almost like they’re colleagues or something. What the fuck?!
deblonay@3863
Perhaps if they’ve polled you before, you have a better chance of being polled again? After all, they probably know what answers you will give.
So if you wanted to rig a poll …
Just sayin’ …
Ozpol what about the women that defended and excused the behaviour???
Anyone that saw the IR debate today would’ve seen why the LNP don’t want to talk policy, they’ve got nothing
In relation to Shorten and Conroy, what’s that old saying? “The absence of alternatives clears the mind marvellously.”
That sums things up.
These two blokes do not want to oversee a massacre of Labor MPs, having done nothing to avert it.
There is no alternative.
Player One that doesn’t make sense unless they knew which people were never likely to change.
Sean @3926
Naaaah.
Sattler is just a complete prick – typical One Nation type.
CTar1
‘BW – On the ADF: I went to the barbers at Kingston this morning. When I arrived I was the only one waiting. About a minute later Angus Houston limped in and sat across from me.
We did the normal stuff and talked about the weather first.
The front page of the Canberra Times was clearly visible to both of us and he says to me ‘the ADF’s got it’s self into trouble again’. Some conversation about that generally.
Then I say to him that I can’t believe that, in particular, Officers are not smart enough to know not to send this stuff across the Defence Computer Network bearing in mind logging and back-ups.
His answer on that was ‘There are some real “Blinkys” in the Officer Corp of all three services’.
Other general current affairs stuff – I was going to mention the Indonesian VP telling JBish where to go but thought it may be better to steer away from boats.
He doesn’t hold politicians with much regard – he made a crack about them all getting a pay rise and spending most their time doing things not much useful.
A nice guy with a sharp intellect.’
Ripper of a post. Was thinking, similarly, that the officer corps notion of cyber war seemed to be to act surprised and fellings hurt when their cyber filth got intercepted by the Home Team. What hope against the Away Team?
Saw the Indonesian Foreign Minister being interviewed the other day and thought that it would be interesting to see a day when an Australian foreign minister could speak Indonesian with the subtlety that this guy was speaking English. With Bishop and Abbott doing White Picket Fences and Colonialist Retro, they might be in for a rude surprise, methought.
This summarises the position for me, as a progressive sort of person who believes policy should be driven by expertise and ethics:
1. Labor was taken over by a union collection of oligarchies more concerned with their own power within the party than winning elections (Latham – Quarterly Essay), and prepared to knife a PM to protect that cause.
2. That ruling cabal demonstrated its new ‘assertive pragmatism’ from June 2010 when it cleared the decks’ of controversial, difficult policy regardless of expert/scientific truth.
3. This approach was interrupted by the election in August 2010 when the party was lucky to cobble together a minority government due to the collapse of the primary vote as a result of public revulsion of point 1. and loss of progressive votes due to point 2.
4. The primary vote has never recovered, and there have been two attempts by those in the parliamentary party to revert to the party of some principle and vision based on the best expertise, but the top dogs of the cabal have so far refused to capitulate, despite it being obvious the party is heading for the abyss.
5. Latham’s general comments as to the internal power focus of the old affiliated union oligarchies over electoral prospects has been confirmed in practice.
6. Some might find the selfishness of a group of disconnected careerists prepared to see Labor go down in flames breathtaking.
Parkinson’s sufferers take medication containing dopamine, a simple chemical needed in the brain that is deficient in those cursed by this dreadful condition.
Dopamine drugs such as Madopar can really play havoc with a person’s cognitive functions.
Sattler was just another reactionary Slop Jock who replaced thinking with bile and hate.
Next, please.
If Rudd truly wanted the job he would have put his hat into the ring last time, lost, and afterwards told the press he was always there if Labor wanted him back. This would have essentially guaranteed his return.
He did the diametric opposite. Didn’t run, then fronted the press afterward saying he would in no circumstances return to the Labor leadership. Strange tactic I reckon, I must have missed this genius strategy in The Art of War.
[THE Queensland Bar is throwing a party tonight to mark the restoration of the rank of Queen’s Counsel for the state’s best advocates. And for those who think this will be an “only in Queensland” moment, the odds are that within 12 months there will be a similar celebration in Victoria.
There is a strong QC push by members of the Liberal Party at the bar and they believe they will get a sympathetic hearing from the state’s Attorney-General Robert Clark.]
this is a foretaste of what the Liberals will use their time in office for. I can just see the heartfelt debates on restoring the Royal honours and tiles.
Psephos
Maybe there’s a first for everything?
Maybe an Abbott government WON’T be marked by the usual exodus of Oz’s most intelligent, talented, acclaimed artists, musicians, writers, scholars, researchers, scientists, thinkers – the in/famous “Brain drain” which began in the Menzies Era around mid195Os, and marked later Liberal governments, eg Fraser’s & Howard’s. Whitlam’s and Hawke’s victories were greeted by talented ExPats’ returns. BTW, both “Brain drains” and “ExPats’ returns were well covered in newspapers of the time.
But, Psephos, I, for one, won’t be holding my breath waiting for such a miracle to happen.
Nemby
Seeming to enjoy saying Tim is gay….reason?
alias
Well a rapprochement will certainly clear the air with the Australian public.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/ministers-line-up-to-attack-rudd/story-fnccyr6m-1226279000205
Gauss
See 3918 and 3921
Makes mockery of your Conroy Shorten comments.
If Sattler has parkinsonian dementia someone should have tapped him on the shoulder long before he made such a fool of himself. If he plays the Employers’ duty of care card the court case may just succeed.
No link from me, but the Daily Telegraph is going hard in their Saturday on Ruddstoration, featuring a call from John Murphy (Reid) for Gillard to step down so Kevin can go on and win the election.
Was Murphy the “prominent backbencher” who was supposed to be triggering a move? If so, I think Rudd picked the wrong horse. The chaff bag wouldn’t be big enough for the notoriously hungry Murphy.
@amytennery: Follow live coverage of the Iranian election from @clarerrrr, @margafret and @Reuters here: http://t.co/RaJZX7B7Yu