BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition

The only national polls this week have been the regular weekly Essential Research and Morgan, which respectively moved a bit to Labor and a bit to the Coalition. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is accordingly little changed.

Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:

Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).

• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.

Further polling:

• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.

• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.

Preselection news:

• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.

Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.

• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,070 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition”

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  1. alias

    “I wonder if Julia Gillard will spend some time there after Sept 14, soul-searching; wondering if perhaps history would have been kinder to her had she handed over power to Kevin Rudd; wondering how many of the Labor MP lambs she sent to the slaughter might have been spared had she done so.”

    Did you have an erection while typing that random bullshit?

  2. I mean really, the fan fiction-esque prose some of you guys churn out on a whim is simply astounding. When you’re not here are you on a Twilight fan-board constructing floral prose about what would happen if Bella died in childbirth?

  3. Rudd should reject those EVIL FACTIONS’ support in principle though, right TP?

    Wait is it you or Compact Crank with the faction fetish? It all tends to blur this time of night.

  4. [lefty e
    Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 2:09 am | Permalink

    What part of “Bring the Ruddstorm” dont you people understand?

    Hug it out, ALP!]

    God how many times have we had to put up with Ruddstoration; Christopher Pyne and Rudd have managed to get another round.

    The longest dummy spit in Australian political history.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    On BB’s advice I won’t even look at Hartcher’s Ruddstoration article let alone link it.
    I wonder what a Reachtel poll of this fine group of people would yield.
    This sort of testosterone-charged power game is certainly not wanted in our armed foces.
    Yes, not a good week for certain men.
    Stephanie Peatling weighs in on the treatment PMJG has been getting from day one.
    Dreyfus may broadside Mesma and Morriscum in QT this week.
    What nut jobs!
    Ah! A “productivity” improvement.
    Alan Moir has had enough of the Ruddstoration circle jerk.
    A lovely cartoon from Pat Campbell on the army revelations.
    MUST SEE! A classic piss take by Ron Tandberg!

  6. Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    Brrrr! 7 degrees with a howling wind – 35kph gusts.

    Thanks & hello to you & yours, BK

    Dreyfus may broadside Mesma and Morriscum in QT this week.

    Moreover, at least one witness lied to the Senate. That’s a serious breach; usually resulting in being Called before the Bar of the Senate. Probably thought himself safe, with only a few more Parliamentary sitting days left.

    Took Aussie MSM how many days to catch up on this one? SBS ran it Thursday, by which time it was old news to G-Oz & PB readers.

    BTW, has The Oz published it yet?


    Note lack of acknowledgement that info came from several Guardian articles over the last few days

    Will add spice to Monday’s QT!

  7. from the open letter to the media

    It’s when you don’t bother to find out who else was at Brough’s dinner. It’s when you take the word of the restaurant owner over the chef’s evidence and you decide not to investigate the truth. It’s when you don’t ask why Brough apologised long before the restaurant owner said the menu was never printed. It’s when someone is lying and you don’t care. It’s when you stalk Craig Thomson and ignore James Ashby. It’s when you beat up stories about Gillard’s ex boyfriend 20 years ago, but make nothing of Abbott’s current slush-fund court case. It’s when you report everything from the worn out, inaccurate narrative of Labor ‘chaos’ and ‘failure’ and you actively support Abbott’s teflon-un-scrutinised stunt show, that we know you are campaigners, not journalists. It’s when you forget that it’s your job to find things out and to tell us the facts, that we remember we can’t trust you. And if we can’t trust you, why should we bother with your words? It all comes down to integrity and respect for the audience. Of which I would question if you have any. Ever noticed how the only people defending you on social media are your own members? Why is that? How can all of us be so outraged by you on a daily basis yet you still ignore the criticism? Time and time again we see you saying you’re getting disapproval from supporters on both sides of politics so you must be doing the right thing. This is bullshit. You’re getting criticism from everyone because you are doing a terrible job of reporting the news. This is why watching Newsroom is so sad. I’m watching a hypothetical scenario of how things could, in a decent world, work. But you, the mainstream media in Australia, do not belong to this world. So this world remains an unattainable fantasy.

  8. I don’t know about the rest of you, but while watching the “Friday Forum” on Lateline w/ Alberichi, Murphy and Coorey..I was becoming more and more outraged!…with every “knowing guffaw”, with every “analytical context”…with every “nudge, nudge, wink-wink”…I could see that with the MSM. we have a third “player” in the political arena.
    An unelected third party in the room..besides the conservatives, the progressives, we now have the “Concubine Coutiers”….the “Keepers of the Context” circulating around from party to party to public commentry, inserting a bit of suspicion here, a bit of a “chinese Whisper” there and all the while “sighing in mock suprise” at the political cynisim pervading in the main parties…..Low filth!….low, low, filth!
    I said months ago that perhaps it would be a good idea to single out these MSM. journos’ and seek public submissions of rumour, innuendo and salacious scandal to totally destroy each and every one of them…perhaps THAT was going a tad too far…but I believe the gov’t has to reintroduce media laws to bring these rogue cowboys under a moral and ethical umbrella…a thing they do not seem capable of implementing off their own back!

  9. from Mike Carlton

    Time to get serious. There is legitimate criticism of the Prime Minister, proper in a democracy. And there is the torrent of insult and hatred, much of it sexual filth, that has been hurled at Gillard from the day she took the job.

    That slop-bucket restaurant “menu” and Sattler’s indecencies were but the latest symptoms of a lingering sickness.

    There is an ugly fault line in Australian society, beyond which there are far, far too many men who seek meaning in their twisted lives by the degradation of women. The Prime Minister has become a lightning rod for this misogyny, which I suspect she recognises.

    Read more:–know-what-i-mean-20130614-2o9i3.html#ixzz2WI2VcPJs

  10. Making a nuisance of myself —

    [As of March, the number of Victorians awaiting elective surgeries had blown out to 50,565, up from 10,000 in December.]

    [Federal Health Minister Tanya Plibersek said Victoria’s elective surgery waiting list had already blown out from 39,363 in September 2010 to 47,792 last December.

    “Given the Commonwealth has provided the Victorian Government $264 million specifically to improve both elective and emergency department performance, Victorian patients have been let down,” she said.]

    And I do like this bit —

    [Mr McCurdy said in his discussions with Northeast Health Wangaratta, its funding appeared to be enough, “but that’s not to say we can’t do better”.]

    Right. It’s funding appears to be enough, but waiting lists have doubled. Sort of suggests there’s a shortfall somewhere to me!

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