BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition

The only national polls this week have been the regular weekly Essential Research and Morgan, which respectively moved a bit to Labor and a bit to the Coalition. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is accordingly little changed.

Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:

Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).

• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.

Further polling:

• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.

• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.

Preselection news:

• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.

Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.

• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,070 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition”

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  1. [If Sattler has parkinsonian dementia someone should have tapped him on the shoulder long before he made such a fool of himself. If he plays the Employers’ duty of care card the court case may just succeed.]

    Slow thinking there, Oakey.

    Sattler’s would be arguing he was unemployable, so therefore should be re-employed.

  2. BB

    [Was Murphy the “prominent backbencher” who was supposed to be triggering a move? If so, I think Rudd picked the wrong horse. The chaff bag wouldn’t be big enough for the notoriously hungry Murphy.]

    John Murphy’s only other claim to fame was asking a question of the Speaker as to why the Beef Stroganoff meals in the Parliamentary staff dining room were so small.

  3. John Murphy is my member and is a log. Pretty much useless.
    His misses was the one who bitched about the $8 stroganoff in the parliamentary canteen.
    He is a total spud.

  4. Madopar side effects:
    cannot find urge to ask offensive prurient questions of important personages on the rather extensive list…it does mention psychiatric problems but these would be a prerequisite for shockjockdom anyway

    a drop in blood pressure on standing or sitting up
    abnormal laboratory test results
    abnormal muscle movements or problems controlling muscle movement – this may affect the arms, legs, face or other body parts
    aggressive behaviour
    allergic reactions
    behavioural changes such as an urge to gamble, to buy or to shop, increased libido, hypersexuality, an unusual increase in appetite or binge eating. You or your carer should seek medical advice if there are any changes to your behavior
    blood problems
    difficulty sleeping
    dose tolerance when Madopar has been taken for a long time – this may lead to periods of time where movement suddenly becomes difficult, where your symptoms return before you take your next dose of Madopar or sudden changes from good symptom control to poor symptom control
    feeling agitated
    feeling anxious
    feeling drowsy
    feelings of disorientation
    gastrointestinal bleeding
    gastrointestinal problems such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea or a loss of appetite – you may reduce the chances of these side-effects from happening by taking Madopar with some food or liquid
    heart problems
    loss of taste or taste changes
    may affect the results for certain tests
    neuroleptic malignant syndrome may occur when this medicine is stopped abruptly
    psychiatric problems
    psychosis or psychotic-like behaviour
    reduced alertness
    skin rash or rashes
    sleepiness – this may be excessive or occur very suddenly at any time of the day. If this happens you must seek medical advice
    urine colour changes – this may include the urine becoming red in colour

  5. guytaur


    Your comment on attempt to rewrite history.

    Working together is no attempt to rewrite history

    “Rewriting history” are not my words; they’re a quote from the newspaper article I linked to and refers to what Conroy said of Rudd back in Feb 2012.

  6. Ozpol @ 3928, exactly. The PM isn’t manufacturing division, she’s confronting real divisions. That some feminists reject her actions only demonstrates the cowardice of joining their condemnations with their opponents such that they may avoid confronting their own gender stereotypes identifying the PM as the *wrong kind* of woman to do so.

  7. The Bitto Foreign Policy
    The Washington Foreign Policy statements re the use of chemical weapons in Syria…by the Gilard Govt.(.despite the UN observer who thought both sides had done so.)..was immediately followed within hours by a statemnent from Canberra that we were of the same opionion to the US(but aren’t always ??)

    The one word that one needs to describe Australian policy re that of the USA is….”ditto ”

    of course the same sycophancy is true of the LOTOtoo

  8. [We have been polled as well, many times when we were in Fran Baileys old seat McEwen]

    I’m 71. Except for short periods when I served in small country towns 1965-7, 69-72, I’ve lived in a house with a phone. I’ve been polled ONCE; for the infamous Qld “push poll” which resulted in such huge support for Joh BP he launched his Joh for Canberra campaign. It was done so slowly, with pollsters sighing “Joooh” whenever his name was mentioned, it became a joke – and a mass prank. Questions were shared with mates face-to-face or by phone; answers ready when the call came. It probably delayed further political push-polling for decades.

    Joh, humiliated by later, more honestly answered polls, backed-down. He was rolled only a few months later.

    Howard blamed Joh-for-Canberra for losing him the election; though imo it had more to do with Oz’s silliest ever election campaign (the white picket fences & “Incentivation” one), and Howard’s inherent dishonesty.

    I have had one Newspoll call – in the last year or so – but they wanted a male in the GenY age-group. I may have been called on the dedicated computer line, but no phone is connected to it.

  9. Labor is in a win win situation now, it cannot avoid a good result for itself.

    Either the factions admit their wrong and reinstate Rudd and possibly steal an election and maybe lead to some reform in the party….OR they keep Gillard and get smashed in the election which will certainly ruin Shorten’s credentials and those of ‘faceless’ mean and likewise lead to some reform process over a long time in Opposition.

    Either way those behind the scenes power brokers have ambushed themselves…and will have to take their medicine.

    I find it hilarious that Shorten needs to support Rudd or lose heaps of credibility, and have lots blame heaped on his shoulders when he loses with Gillard. In the cold reality that follows a loss and the examination and questions that follow he his actions and reputation wont escape.

    So tis all good. Labor win if they win with Rudd and win if they lose under Gillard.

    One thing that is clear is there will be no victory with Gillard. So will shorten eat a shiite sandwich now or buckets and buckets of shitte ice-cream when losing with Gillard.

  10. The Murdoch press is going all Ruddstoration, not only have they flushed out John Murphy, but they have a quote from Paul Howes saying wtte “the AWU doesn’t tell people how to vote”.

    From this all long bows are drawn with the inevitable…

    Rupert’s minions would be better off reverting to type and speculating on who has been rogering his missus.

  11. Yes I suppose so, JV. But then Blair is always banging on about his religious faith and what not. And how about Cherie? She seems well such a charming type.

  12. Regarding women defending indefensible

    Janet Albrechtson was on The Project saying sacking Sattler was an overreaction

  13. [I have been reliably informed, usually by National party voters, that every Labor leader in the last 40 years was guy (did you know Gough has AIDS?) Apparently this is seen as a big issue among regional conservatives.]

    Have they forgotten Billy Mcmahon & a couple (at least) of other Lib leaders who were considered Bi?

  14. YSB

    We can read this shit in the Hun why do you bore us? Why would we spend time on an alternative news source to read Laurie fucking Oakes

  15. Re polls and age groups
    I you are keen to take part remember they Don’t know youre age over the phone.. so just tell them what they want to hear

  16. Alias

    As we know, the ones that bang on about their religious faith and their purity are the biggest random fornicators on the planet, whether in the religion or outside it.

  17. [Ozpol what about the women that defended and excused the behaviour???]

    OK, womble, exactly WHAT about WHICH women?

  18. My story hasn’t changed…I have said this a few times before. That it might even be better for labor to get thrashed under Gillard than Rudd save the party.

  19. Sattler’s a complete loser who deserves the boot.

    He wasnt asking if Matheson was gay, he was suggesting he was a beard for Gillard. Who is the PM, FFS.

    When the military chief is ahead of the general game on issues of sexism you know youve lost your way Australia.

    This country needs to take a good hard look at itself. Its like the culture is run by a bunch of sniggering 14 y.o. circle-jerkers.

  20. Ozpol @ 3944 another thing for me to agree with. It is people that matter, not tape (the conservative obsession). Intelligent, creative people get to choose who they work with, and they sure as hell aren’t going to want to work with the kind of boring person(s) obsessed with tape.

  21. thirteen long years into the new century, and Julia Gillard, David Morrison et al are struggling to take us out of the 18th

  22. Now here is a US poll with some interesting perspectives. Would like to see this repeated locally.

    [WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ confidence in Congress as an institution is down to 10%, ranking the legislative body last on a list of 16 societal institutions for the fourth straight year. This is the lowest level of confidence Gallup has found, not only for Congress, but for any institution on record. Americans remain most confident in the military, at 76%.

  23. A few weeks back, The Age featured a piece on a block of land that Tim Mathieson has bought near Goulburn in Victoria.

    He has a small caravan there. It looks idyllic.

    I wonder if Julia Gillard will spend some time there after Sept 14, soul-searching; wondering if perhaps history would have been kinder to her had she handed over power to Kevin Rudd; wondering how many of the Labor MP lambs she sent to the slaughter might have been spared had she done so.

  24. sprocket, why would you want to see Australians favour an autocratic, rigid, heirarchical institution over a democratic one?

    Or do you mean you would like to see the poll (not the results) repeated? 😀

  25. sprocket

    I reckon it would be similar here given the rating for politicians. A reflection of the rare archaic two party system our voting regime and that of the US (and UK)engenders.

    By contrast, advanced democracies with PR have greater confidence in their parliaments, none greater than Denmark, which has had over 100 years of minority government.

    Forget a survey, let’s get PR voting for the House of Reps.

  26. sprocket

    [The Murdoch press is going all Ruddstoration]

    After this week – Indonesia’s NO to turning back the boats; No “Jihad terrorist murderer”; menugate & other smart-arsked misogynist antics; Defence Forces’ scandal etc going viral – wouldn’t that be the last card left in their “Beat Up” box?

    Though, by this time, surely thoughts of The Boy Who Called “Wolf” must enter at least one of even Murdoch’s less than intelligent hacks’s heads.

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