Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:
• Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.
Further polling:
• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.
• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.
Preselection news:
• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.
• Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.
• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.
Andrew Leigh was promoting this earlier on twitter, and it seems timely to post it here:
[The Sexism: See it. Stay it. Stop it. campaign: This group of Australian women and men acknowledge and reject the pervasive culture of sexism and discrimination towards women in leadership in this country. This has become obvious in recent years, notably through the treatment of many prominent women across the political spectrum.
As a group we unite to publicly highlight this issue and call upon all Australians – whatever your political, professional or personal interests – to join us in refusing to condone this culture and standing up for the respectful and equal treatment of women in leadership.
Don’t let the moment pass. The time to act is now. Sign up here. http://seeitsayitstopit.com/ ]
confessions
What??
[alias
Posted Friday, June 14, 2013 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
Earlier someone was having a good old chuckle about the possiblity of Peta Credlin having Tony Abbott’s love child.
All sides seem determined to head for the gutter.]
Yep, not to mention those defending the street parties celebrating the departure of Maggie Thatcher. There’s been pretty despicable stuff from both sides.
Incidentally, I am not sure what Howard Sattler was on during the PM interview but I’m pretty bewildered at his behaviour.
Even if Mathieson is gay, how is it relevant to anything?
@Nespy/3853
The problem is this isn’t just making jokes, or whatever.
This is pure sexism at work, the Australian Military is having issues, the USA Military is is also having problems.
And now the PM on top of this is getting it.
Nemspy
Sattler’s rubbish was probably a local Lib party instigation, a long way from Canberra but getting the “unmarried, childless pretence” line out there for the election campaign.
What this week has proved is that, as a Nation, we are extremely immature.
[What??]
It seems jv has developed short term amnesia. I shall repeat my comment and question
[Imagine your daughter in a work situation where her male colleagues are making casual references to a woman manager’s pubic hair colour in terms of a business decision she had made.
What does she do? Does she laugh along, putting others down for feeling offended at the ‘jokes’, as you are doing with me? Does she feel violated, hoping she is never placed in such a position where her male colleagues wonder about the colour of her pubic hair? Or does she challenge their sexism and misogyny?
Which option would make you feel proudest of her actions?]
It’s pretty clear, really.
[What this week has proved is that, as a Nation, we are extremely immature.]
Nonsense.
What this week has proved is that there are sections of our nation who are extremely immature.
confessions
Why do you ask?
Some consolation in this sordid little affair; or, WTF?:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/coalition-victory-could-usher-in-new-creative-era-20130613-2o6u5.html
Turnbull was such a good LOTO he became PM ….. oh.
I have just had a ‘phone call from Newspoll and answered their usual questions …oddly not for the first time…and some months ago hadf a call from Morgan
We live in a marginbal seat which may have something to do with it
I cite this matter for the rathe4r curious sceptics on PB who think the polls are corrupt and say they are never polled
@Deb/3863
I never been polled.
We live in a Liberal seat though.
@CC/3862
Turnbull lasted a year, only to be voted out by 1 vote.
Hey! That’s you on my TV!!!!!
Why do I ask?
[jaundiced view
Posted Friday, June 14, 2013 at 8:38 pm | PERMALINK
Talking about name-calling, the mistake the Libs have made with Menugate is that they have implicitly conceded that Gillard is a genuine redhead, which undermines their mantra about her recurring dishonesty.]
That’s why. As if you didn’t know.
The PM’s private parts have sweet f*ck all to do with the Libs’ “mantra about her recurring dishonesty”.
And it says a lot about you that you would choose to use a woman’s genitalia in order to make a political point.
You really do disgust me.
P1
[Sattler saying he will take legal action about his sacking.
Yes, I believe he’s planning to sue Gillard.
She should have known what was coming when she agreed to the interview – how dare she pretend to be offended afterwards?]
Perhaps he’ll say it was entrapment.
I’ll be campaigning actively against Smith.
Look at this classic invite. Makes my theory about what Sattler was doing with the PM stronger(per mango @ByronBayMango):
http://engage.wa.liberal.org.au/libmail/libmail77/event/A%20Morning%20with%20Howard%20Sattler%202.pdf
Unfortunately Howard Sattler is suffering from Parkinsons disease. Some months ago he was taken off air because he sounded like he was drunk. It seems to me that it has effected his judgement, not that you need a lot of that to be a shock jock, but you do if you are interviewing a PM. It would have been better if management had been able to persuade him that he was no longer up to it.
confessions
Why always so angry these days?
confessions@3859
The behavior of the few reflects on the majority, unfortunately.
William – well done – good spot.
Was that William on WA 730 tonight?
I finished high school in an international school in HK and thus have lots of friends across the world who spread out after finishing the sixth form. We’re in our late 20s now.
In the past 48 hours I’ve had three of them ask me about the PM and her box/gay boyfriend. One of whom is a young female lawyer at the beginning of her career. I told her as long as as she doesn’t get too successful and gets quickly married to a guy in a respectable profession (and breeds), she’ll be alright by Australian standards.
It’s all highly embarrassing. I hope the sniggers and backslapping are worth the damage you’re doing to our international reputation, LIbs.
Yessiree Bob – so all those prisons full of criminals are a reflection of the broader community?
Yep – he did really well.
[confessions
Why always so angry these days?]
Because I keep encountering sexist, misogynist comments such as yours in today’s year of 2013.
I had thought dinosaurs such as yourself were on the wane, but instead find you’ve ramped up your efforts because we have a woman PM.
International reputation – oooooh
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/coalition-victory-could-usher-in-new-creative-era-20130613-2o6u5.html
This article is a load of snobbish Tory crap. Brandis has been sucking up to the arts community be letting them believe the “high arts” will get more money out of a Conservative government, without of course making any concrete promises – let alone mentioning that Hockey will cut government spending by $70bn.
[It’s all highly embarrassing. I hope the sniggers and backslapping are worth the damage you’re doing to our international reputation, LIbs.]
And people like jaundiced view who think it’s all okay to link the Prime Minister’s pubic hair colour to govt decisions she is a part of.
Psephos
Quite a bizarre article I thought. Especially invoking Gough. I mean, in the same article (let alone paragraph) as Brandis?
confessions
[okay to link the Prime Minister’s pubic hair colour to govt decisions she is a part of.]
I fear you have gone to Gowings.
The comments about Tim Matheson are obviously not about him but are an attempt to disparage the PMs own sexuality in several possible ways:
1. She is too unattractive to get a real man
+/or 2. She is a lesbian and the relationship is a sham
+/or 3. She is living in sin at taxpayer expense
Parkinsonian dementia not withstanding this was a deliberate attack which has backfired to some degree but was probably cheered by the usual listeners to Fairfax radio.
Compact Crank@3877
No, now you’re taking it to the extreme. I’m talking about how we allow these boofheads to make thier cracks and only act when they have totally crossed the line, we tut tut but and choose to ignore, rather than act.
How we turn a blind eye to the ‘Blokey Jokes’ of our sporting shows.
How it has seemingly become a national pass time those that are different or more vulnerable than we.
Need I go on ?
Oakshott Country
I agree, and likely via the WA Liberal party – getting that meme into discourse for the election. Sattler collateral damage no-one cares about.
The Ultimate Political Jerk Anthony Weiner
_____________________
a US website looks at one of the Democratic contenders for the nomination for Mayor of New York
It remaks that all his decisions are based on aiding his financial or politicla prospect…and silencing his critica(He lost his HoR seat over a set-texting scandal
I can’t(thank dog) think of any Australian instance as bad
Re Anthony Weiner of New York
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/is-weiners-bigotry-the-new-new-york/
I doubt very much that the Sattler bit has anything to do with the Liberal Party. It’s more likely to draw some sympathy. If it was anyone but Sattler I’d be wondering if it was orchestrated for just such a reaction.
The “Tim is gay” rumour is hardly new – we saw pro gay marriage people make that comment “just because you don’t want to marry your gay boyfriend, don’t stop me from marrying mine”.
I’m just finding Sattler bringing it up totally bizarre.
Given how much of a fuss has been made about Gillards AWU boyfriend and affair with Emerson, I’m really scratching my head with the idea are suggesting she’s a lesbian.
It seems she can’t win, not that it’s relevant in the first place.
I find this strangely cheering
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-shows-fianna-fáil-remains-best-supported-party-in-state-at-26-1.1427920
After having been reduced to a rump in the Irish election, Fianna Fail has returned to a leading position within 2 years. A rapid comeback is possible
[I fear you have gone to Gowings.]
When faced with your own offensiveness you choose yet more personal attacks.
Nice.
@Dio/3891
“It seems she can’t win, not that it’s relevant in the first place.”
I think that was the point.
Diogenes
And Emerson was so overwhelmed he swallowed Gillard’s contact lenses in a glass of water. You’re right, it isn’t about Gillard’s sexuality, it’s the old one again about not being married and not having kids. It won’t make any difference.
People with Parkinson’s disease have a much higher rate of dementia and depression than the general population.
They also get impulse control disorders which are thought to be due to the medication. Hyper sexuality is one problem and I’m pretty sure someone recently in the US got off a sexual assault charge based on the impulse control problem.
I’m not saying that is the case with Sattler who is a douche bag but those are well recognised problems with PD.
I take no more than a passing interest in AFL but I note with interest that Carlton are in serious danger of beating Hawthorn, in the opening minutes of the final quarter, and four points up.
Dio:
Who, apart from internet cretins has suggested the PM is gay?
confessions
I can’t help it if you’re offended by me making a lame joke about a political situation. It wasn’t about you, it was about the Libs.
@JV/3898
Perhaps you didn’t make it clear enough for Confessions?