Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:
• Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.
Further polling:
• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.
• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.
Preselection news:
• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.
• Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.
• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.
I hate to play the pedant, but to various posters:
It’s restaurateur, not restauranteur. Thank-you for indulging me.
BK,
[Sattler saying he will take legal action about his sacking.
If he does he will line up an interesting cabal of “character” witnesses.
Any suggestions?]
This guy would have to be the first “cad” off the rank.
[ “Has your restauranteur mate apologized to the PM yet ?” ]
Yes, I’m interested in this as well. He was very quick to apologize to Mal Brough for getting him into such deep dreck, but still doesn’t appear to think he’s done anything else wrong.
Do they have ethics classes in Queensland schools? Just wondering!
[The New South Wales Greens will press the state government to hold a public inquiry into the safety of fluoridated water, after the NSW Court of Appeal ruled against an anti-fluoride campaigner’s bid to prevent the chemical being added to drinking water.
The court decided unanimously that Ballina Shire Council, via Rous Water, should be allowed to add fluoride to water in five processing plants across the Northern Rivers region of NSW.
Al Oshlack, who initiated legal action in 2012 to prevent fluoridation of the water, was ordered to pay the legal costs of the council and Rous Water, estimated to be around $500,000.
The NSW Department of Health had directed that fluoride be added to water supplies in the Lismore, Ballina and Richmond Valley shires. Oshlack appealed an earlier decision by the NSW Land and Environment Court to allow the fluoridation.
However, the Greens will call on the state government, which has supported the adding of fluoride to water since 1957, to hold a public review of the evidence supporting its use.
NSW Greens MP John Kaye told Guardian Australia that a public review would help reassure communities concerned about drinking fluoride.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/fluoride-inquiry-nsw-greens
I guess this is what Greens wedge politics looks like: trying to assure their base they aren’t anti-science luddites while speaking out the other side of their mouths in order to appeal to those same anti-science luddites.
@Morpheus/3799
Now calling people part of the “Cheer Squad”, how fascinating!
Boerwar,
Condolences on your sad loss.
BW – On the ADF: I went to the barbers at Kingston this morning. When I arrived I was the only one waiting. About a minute later Angus Houston limped in and sat across from me.
We did the normal stuff and talked about the weather first.
The front page of the Canberra Times was clearly visible to both of us and he says to me ‘the ADF’s got it’s self into trouble again’. Some conversation about that generally.
Then I say to him that I can’t believe that, in particular, Officers are not smart enough to know not to send this stuff across the Defence Computer Network bearing in mind logging and back-ups.
His answer on that was ‘There are some real “Blinkys” in the Officer Corp of all three services’.
Other general current affairs stuff – I was going to mention the Indonesian VP telling JBish where to go but thought it may be better to steer away from boats.
He doesn’t hold politicians with much regard – he made a crack about them all getting a pay rise and spending most their time doing things not much useful.
A nice guy with a sharp intellect.
Zoomster the party of the 80s and early 90s had 2.5 factions – no faction was in command and it was possible for negotiations to led to consensus and discipline. The breakdown of the system into multiple personal fiefdoms has led to a breakdown of consensus and eventually to much of the disunity we now see. Despite good leaders and policies the appearance of a rabble lead to the coming disaster.
morpheus
you seem to think the outrage over the menu was orchestrated by the Labor party. It wasn’t. It was a genuine outpouring of disgust from ordinary people, expressed over social media, where it originated.
You can try and airbrush it all you like, but if your side of politics ignores or pretends that real life, ordinary voters weren’t genuinely disgusted, then they’re heading into very dangerous waters.
Morpheus
Will you please stop calling the Prime Minister “red headed clown”. I find it offensive.
Thanks in advance.
zoidlord:
???? What is doubtful about all these companies scaling back their infrastructure investment?
@ruawake/3810
It just makes his posts less legitimate.
[ Sattler saying he will take legal action about his sacking. ]
Yes, I believe he’s planning to sue Gillard.
She should have known what was coming when she agreed to the interview – how dare she pretend to be offended afterwards?
@Confessions/3811
Yes, the same sorta deal when LNP govs doing similar with Schools.
ruawake@3810
I think that Morpheus is red headed clown
condolences to BW, btw.
I think if “Chimpy” and “Rabbott” are allowed, one has to put up with “Red-Headed Clown”.
OC
Maybe it’s a state thing – I got active in the mid 90s, there were multiple factions, and it was clear that most of them had reasonably long histories.
If anything, I’d say the factions have reduced in number since then (certainly The Pledge and Labor Alliance seem to have vanished).
2.5 would be about right for Victoria.
Factions, in their essence, have always been ‘friendship groups’.
[ I think if “Chimpy” and “Rabbott” are allowed, one has to put up with “Red-Headed Clown”. ]
I agree with zoidlord @ 3812 – when they use such obviously offensive language, it just telegraphs to everyone that they can be safely ignored.
[I think if “Chimpy” and “Rabbott” are allowed, one has to put up with “Red-Headed Clown”.]
They are all offensive. People should respect the office if not the person, I rarely use other than a persons name or title.
Except for The Hammock who was the worst Treasurer ever and deserves to be lampooned.
Sorry to hear about your loss BW.
I’m personally happy with a ban on Abbott – ape references if it gets rid of ‘red headed clown’.
And fair enough, too!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-14/men-sentenced-over-sharia-whipping/4755638
[Zoomster the party of the 80s and early 90s had 2.5 factions – no faction was in command and it was possible for negotiations to led to consensus and discipline. The breakdown of the system into multiple personal fiefdoms has led to a breakdown of consensus and eventually to much of the disunity we now see. Despite good leaders and policies the appearance of a rabble lead to the coming disaster.]
That is absolutely correct, but because it suits the agendas of many people both inside and outside Labor to go on talking about “faction bosses,” many other people have failed to grasp this fact.
Talking about name-calling, the mistake the Libs have made with Menugate is that they have implicitly conceded that Gillard is a genuine redhead, which undermines their mantra about her recurring dishonesty.
Unlike Tony Abbott, who doesn’t have a budgie tucked away in there at all, and yet has allowed this untruth to persist in the public mind.
[Psephos
Posted Friday, June 14, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
..
That is absolutely correct, but because it suits the agendas of many people both inside and outside Labor to go on talking about “faction bosses,” many other people have failed to grasp this fact.]
Basically your both saying, it just might be time to listen to Latham.
Labor has had a ‘stable’ factional agglomeration in charge since soon after the 2007 win (and latent before). It exercised its newfound power in April and June 2010, and again in the challenges following. However, being ‘stable’ to date doesn’t imply being ‘beneficial’. The opposite, in fact. Hence the challenges.
JV @3824. wow , that’s deep! Not
Best wishes Boerwar.
[Talking about name-calling, the mistake the Libs have made with Menugate is that they have implicitly conceded that Gillard is a genuine redhead, which undermines their mantra about her recurring dishonesty.]
Ugh. That is just revolting, and wholly unnecessary. I loathed Howard, but never once speculated about the colour of his pubic hair.
jaundiced view has certainly scraped the bottom of the revulsion barrel the last couple of days in his never ending quest to unload on the PM.
Evening all
They say a week is a long time in politics, this one certainly was. Is also caused me to flip flop on my position again. While i would understand a move back to Rudd in terms of the numbers, i now think we owe it to Julia and the country to say this behaviour just isn’t on.
We are better than this and Abbott is largely to blame, he had to be stopped. I’d argue we wouldn’t be where we are today if Turnbull was loto.
Australia is better than this
Obiwan’s Red Line has been crossed.
Now he’s going to hold his breathe until he closes Gitmo, stops secretly monitoring your data and calls Gillard to work out what happens when a line is crossed – she’s an expert.
[ We are better than this and Abbott is largely to blame, he had to be stopped. I’d argue we wouldn’t be where we are today if Turnbull was loto.
Australia is better than this ]
I know it is frowned on here … but +1 !
Apparently we aren’t Womble. It’s been a bad week for blatant sexism from multiple directions.
This is funny:
Andrew Ellson @andrewellson
Completely brilliant apology from The Sun pic.twitter.com/pwSSRp3spl /via @mintowtczyz @jeremyduns
[ Apparently we aren’t Womble. It’s been a bad week for blatant sexism from multiple directions. ]
No, only one.
Working link to Scientology story: https://twitter.com/JamesManning4/status/345054342438588416/photo/1
Apologies for the errors, on my phone watching the footy
Loved the passion of David Morrison last night, the YouTube video should be compulsory viewing for everyone not just his troops
confessions
No sense of humour? Things must be bad.
Womble – Turnbull would be a disaster for Australia and the Liberals.
Dodged a bullet there.
[ No sense of humour? Things must be bad. ]
No understanding of what constitutes a degrading and sexist comment? Things are indeed bad!
[Apparently we aren’t Womble. It’s been a bad week for blatant sexism from multiple directions.]
The colour of the PM’s pubic hair can now be used in general discourse and point-scoring according to jaundiced view.
If you want to see everything that is wrong with the progressive side of politics, it is the casual, throwaway sexism that is exhibited by people like jv.
@CC/3840
I dunno, I think he would have done fine as LOTO – If given a chance (except he wasn’t given a chance).
I think if “Chimpy” and “Rabbott” are allowed, one has to put up with “Red-Headed Clown”.
You are right of course, but it does get a bit tedious.
[No sense of humour?]
Imagine your daughter in a work situation where her male colleagues are making casual references to a woman manager’s pubic hair colour in terms of a business decision she had made.
What does she do? Does she laugh along, putting others down for feeling offended at the ‘jokes’, as you are doing with me? Does she feel violated, hoping she is never placed in such a position where her male colleagues wonder about the colour of her pubic hair? Or does she challenge their sexism and misogyny?
Which option would make you feel proudest of her actions?
And don’t patronise me with your stupid humour bullshit when your own gross sexism is called out.
Turnbull would be an 100% improvement on Abbott. Dunno why CC would opine otherwise.
Earlier someone was having a good old chuckle about the possiblity of Peta Credlin having Tony Abbott’s love child.
All sides seem determined to head for the gutter.
The sooner the debate switches back to matters of importance to the average voter (like getting Kevin Rudd back as leader) the better.
CC maybe in some ways, I think Turnbull would sell his grandmother for the right price and do way too much to help his merchant banker mates but he wouldn’t stand for what’s happening now.
This lack of respect and level of discourse is down to Abbott’s “leadership” IMO
ABC news showed the R*dd segment.
Can now understand OC’s earlier comment on the report.
womble@3848
Which is why we need to do what we can to defeat Abbott.
imagine the meltdown within the LNP party room when that happens