Watson covers inner suburban territory roughly 15 kilometres south-west of central Sydney, from Strathfield and Burwood Heights at the city end to Greenacre and Lakemba further afield. The electorate was called St George from its creation in 1949 until 1993, reflecting the unofficial name of the Hurstville, Rockdale and Kogarah area of Sydney which it formerly encompassed. Watson was drawn further away from its traditional base when the redistribution before the 2010 election abolished its northern neighbour Lowe, from which it absorbed southern Strathfield and Burwood Heights. It also gained Greenacre, Mount Lewis and part of Punchbowl to the west, which were formerly in Banks, while in the south it lost Earlwood and Kingsgrove to Barton and Hurstville to Banks. This left only the voters in the City of Canterbury, accounting for barely half the total, to carry over to the newly redrawn seat. The affected areas were a mixed bag electorally, the changes serving to reduce the Labor margin by 1.9%.
The electorate of St George was for much of its history a classically marginal middle suburban seat, frequently changing hands until Whitlam government minister Bill Morrison recovered it for Labor in 1980 after being unseated in 1975 (the unsuccessful candidate in the intervening 1977 election was Whitlam’s son Antony, who had served in the previous term as member for Grayndler). Morrison was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Dubois, who retired when Watson was created in 1993 as part of a rearrangement that abolished St George and the Bondi-area electorate of Phillip. Labor accommodated Phillip MP Jeannette McHugh in Grayndler, while Right faction heavyweight Leo McLeay moved from Grayndler to Watson. Meanwhile, Labor’s grip tightened thanks to demographic change which has left Watson with the highest proportion of non-English speakers (72.8%) of any electorate in the country, most notably through the concentration of Lebanese at Lakemba and Chinese and Koreans at Campsie. However, the trend to Labor sharply reversed amid a Sydney-wide backlash at the 2010 election, which reduced Labor’s 18.2% margin by exactly half.
Watson has been held since McLeay’s retirement in 2004 by Tony Burke, who had entered politics the previous year as a member of the state upper house. McLeay had long hoped that his son Paul would assume the seat upon his retirement, but the strength of support for Burke within the Right compelled him to abandon the idea. Paul McLeay was instead accommodated in the state seat of Heathcote, which he held from 2003 until he joined the Labor casualty list at the 2011 state election. Burke meanwhile won swift promotion to the shadow ministry in 2005, going on to serve in cabinet as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister in the Rudd-Gillard government’s first term and as Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities Minister (further gaining arts in March 2013) in its second. Burke has been a resolute supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, and spoke publicly of the “chaos” of Kevin Rudd’s prime ministership when he launched his unsuccessful challenged in February 2012.
The Liberals have preselected Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to national attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006. Delezio ran in Banks at the 2010 election, picking up an 8.9% swing against Labor’s Daryl Melham, and unsuccessfully sought preselection there again for the coming election.
Another reminder too for those saying Rudd gets mobbed and that means he will be leader next week.
Rudd got mobbed in Brisbane after he resigned as FM. He is still not leader.
Julia can’t win.
The people don’t want her.
Look at the polls.
Salvage something and give yourselves a shot at getting the truth about Abbott across.
We have to go back 😎
Back to the future 😛
Here’s the trailer for the the current Kevin Rudd movie, “Kevlins”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoK0BzYUTrU
tbw
,
May I remind you, that you are a self confessed non Member of the ALP.
If Julia stays leader, it’s going to get real ugly on Sept 14.
She will continually be rubbished by OLD MEDIA and the Monkey will be paraded as the PM.
Abbott won’t even be held to account for anything – he will be, as I said, paraded as the PM.
You switch to Rudd – people start to listen – then you hit that rotten monkey hard in the campaign.
“Wining isn’t everything, wanting to win is” – that is the last thing that Richmond players see, as they enter the race out onto the Field.
People pick up on that, and will always respect you if you at least try and win, even in defeat.
The way the ALP are playing it ATM, they are acting as if they don’t want to win. At least that’s the perception out there.
The ALP appear to have given up the fight, and seem to be refusing to at least even look like they want to retain government, and it’s so disheartening
YB
Yes the MSM has been working hard on that perception. Despite the reality
[We have to go back :cool:]
Rudd would be slaughtered in the polls if he became leader… there is simply too much ammunition against him for the other side. Better he just do his job and support this leader and the party the best he can. If at some time in the distant future he wishes to be honoured again, this is what he must do now.
Who were the clowns who packed up their office during the week.
Sheezus Krist – what bloody next – unbelievable!
Toff
(Just wrote a long reasoned reply and Crikey swallowed it. 😡 )
Shorter version:
Julia might be persuaded to stand down when she has carried all her legislation through. But it must be voluntary. After all her work she deserves some credit. But I don’t think Carr is the answer.
centre
Packing office not unusual. The media reporting such was.
guytaur@157
The reality is that people feel that the ALP has given up the ghost, if they are not prepared to at least fight, why should they waste their vote on them.
Funny enough, but people like Rudd, he gets noticed even despite the MSM. He is seen as a fighter, as witnessed from the last few days.
YB
As I have said Rudd is good doing that. Let him continue.
Yesiree Bob
Errr, where do you get that he’s being noticed from other than the MSM?
Gecko
There will be far too many happenings with the switch to Rudd immediately followed by the campaign – to use ammunition against him.
Besides, it may not be a big deal that some in Labor have said bad things about Rudd.
Don’t forget, things have been said about Abbott, like being innumerate by Costello.
Greg Combet National Press Club laying it out for LNP on how they will have to go to DD or Keep Carbon price for those that missed it midweek
Win, lose or draw, Labor will not restore Rudd. There is no alternative for Labor. Defeat is certain. But this is not the worst thing that can happen. The worst thing that could happen would be to completely discredit yourself in the process, and make it doubly hard to rebuild in the future.
If Labor were to restore Rudd, they will be repudiating everything they have been trying to do in the last three years. They will be saying to the public, “We really are just as useless as the LNP say we are. We cannot work out our own internal dynamics and are not capable of running anything, let alone the country. We’re sorry we’ve put you all through this. We are just complete idiots. Don’t ever listen to us again.”
“@ABCNews24: Climate Change Minister Greg Combet addresses the National Press Club on a clean energy future. Watch: http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol #npc”
guytaur@166
I’m sure almost as many people heard that as they did Rudds comments.
Oh wait…
I reckon some minds in the caucus would probably be thinking – ok we put Rudd back in and save a lot of seats. But hang on. What if he happens to win the bloody thing. We’d have to put up with the bastard telling us what to do again. NO WAY.
GG
No!You are quite correct after twenty seven years of holding all sorts of positions and working for two State and one Federal members I retired when all but a couple of branches in our electorate closed down in the early nineties.
How long have you been a member for GG?
Darn@170
Which is infinitely better than having Abbott as PM
yb@169
More people get their news from new media than old media. On that platform a lot of Combet quotes were passed around on twitter and FB.
More than read the Australian Daily Terrograph Nine News Ten News etc.
I wonder if Newspoll does the same after September 14.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/06/gallup-polls-on-why-they-got-the-us-presidential-election-wrong.html
Guytaur
Did anyone in the Coalition pack their office?
If so – blast OLD MEDIA, if not – shake your head in total disbelief.
Centre
“Julia can’t win.
The people don’t want her.
Look at the polls.”
You left out “Suck up the bullshit”
The MSM. Purveyors of bullshit to the Nation.
Darn
😆
Cross that hurdle when you come to it!
😛
[Yesiree Bob
Posted Saturday, June 8, 2013 at 1:08 pm | Permalink
Darn@170
I reckon some minds in the caucus would probably be thinking – ok we put Rudd back in and save a lot of seats. But hang on. What if he happens to win the bloody thing. We’d have to put up with the bastard telling us what to do again. NO WAY.
Which is infinitely better than having Abbott as PM]
No argument from me on that.
GG
What’s this balderdash about membership? You don’t need to be a member of Opus Dei to be entitled to criticise the Catholic Church.
Almost everybody is a non-member of the ALP these days. Especially union members.
Centre
See comments by Senator Carr linked in last thread.
See how no media is talking about it now.
[168
guytaur
“@ABCNews24: Climate Change Minister Greg Combet addresses the National Press Club on a clean energy future. Watch: http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol #npc”]
Good on him. This alone makes it worth voting for the ALP.
TBW,
Since the 70’s.
BTW the Party has done very well since you left. Power in NSW for 13 of the last 15 years and power at Federal level for the last nearly six years. So thanks for pissing off and allowing the True Believers to run things.
I notice the huge swing to the left of the electorate as an alternative to Labor.
Whatever you are smoking, keep puffing. It’s good stuff.
briefly
Sadly the party is as useless as the Libs say it is, Ruddsteration or not. The question is whether the ruling cabal will have the guts to capitulate so that the Senate does not fall to the Libs, & there would even be a chance of winning.
JV,
I have no problem with people criticising the Party. But, I do object to your ongoing dishonesty in representing yourself as a part of the Party.
It’s just charlatans like yourself and TBW who like to portray themselves as long time Members when you, in particular have never been a Member.
jv
I have many problems with the ALP and some of their policies.
However useless they are not. Just ask Senator Milne how useful they have been as partners to get a Carbon Price going.
Ask Tony Windsor why it was useless to back PMJG and Labor over Abbott.
Stop the hyper bowl.
[32 want Rudd.
That would be the total of his loser supporters.]
So thats 32 potential seats Rudd might save by visiting their electorates.
Wheres Gillard??!
@zackster: It’s like the very sight of Kevin Rudd is crack cocaine http://t.co/xFCCQbxZoG
Well Guytaur
Here’s the deal.
If even I was under the impression that Labor MPs were packing up their office in anticipation of defeat – how the hell are ordinary voters going to see it?
Not good enough – OLD MEDIA should be castrated.
How many seats did Rudd save in the Queensland election with all his campaigning?
Rudd campaigning in your seat is a sure sign you are a dead duck. The only one meant to benefit is Kevvie.
Centre
This is just one example of Old Media campaigning for the LNP led by old Sauron who has returned to his old Australian fortress.
The media frenzy this week has been absolutely appalling, but not at all surprising.
This same media has been telling us for three years that the Government is certainly ‘doomed’, yet suddenly it’s news again that it’s doomed because another poll says they’re still behind? WTF
They are having it both ways: apparently it’s a fait accompli that Labor will lose, but it is also newsworthy each week when it still looks like they will lose…
Labor still has a chance, but it is small.
What is interesting is the hyperbole around seats Labor will allegedly be left with. Who can forget when Rudd Labor was getting 58-60 TPP polls in 2007 and some of us here got carried away and started saying the ALP will win Kooyong or North Sydney. Adam Carr rightly called Possum and others out on this utter silliness.
Once the election was called, the polls settled around 53-54 and the end result was just 52.7% (despite Nielsen saying it would be 57% the day before!)
Of course Labor is in trouble. But it is foolish to pre-empt the election and to get carried away with losing this or that safe seat.
It might wet the knickers of Pyne and some of his demented right wing acolytes, but it is still Liberal/Murdoch fantasy.
The fight is with Abbott and it is not over.
For students of political history, who can forget all the pollsters telling us (including internals) that Obama would not only win New Hampshire primary in 2008, but he would win it comfortably… voters can and do change their minds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbyCrYVn7hI
GG
Who would bother pretending to be a member of a dysfunctional, disappearing and irrelevant branch structure? Not I.
The party belongs to everyone with an interest. It is even talking about community primaries. It is a top-down organisation no longer run from an almost non-existent rank and file membership. So your pre-occupation with membership is misplaced.
Guytaur
Oh no!
Don’t try to defend Labor from being useless by saying they got carbon price going 😥
They were totally useless – HELLO – look at the polls.
Why?
Because they listened to the Greens!
Look at this mess – all because of that lunatic Milne 😎
Go and hide Christine – oh don’t take any blame for your stupid idiotic “unelectable” carbon tax 😡
Centre
See Greg Combet NPC on now.
JV,
“Who would bother pretending to be a member of a dysfunctional, disappearing and irrelevant branch structure?”
You do!
However, we’ve done very nicely without frauds like you.
guytaur@173
Really ? You think so ?
Tell you what, have a look at the mad scramble for the FX rag thats given out at Flinders Street every afternoon, or observe what people have on their Ipds or Laptops on the morning commute.
People might not be buying Newspapers as much, but they are still getting their news from the OM’s websites etc.
Guytaur
I’ve already seen it.
Combet said the Greens were SILLY
😆 priceless!
YB
Good try. See twitter and FB.
yb
Like this.
“@Jackasouras: Greg Combet at the National Press Club. Clear and concise. Smashed the Q&A bit with journos too.
http://t.co/sAXPQ1jWVu”
[The party belongs to everyone with an interest. It is even talking about community primaries.]
So the party *is* in fact capable of reforming itself?