BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition

This week’s Newspoll shocker has blown away the mild Labor recovery the BludgerTrack poll aggregate thought it was detecting after the budget.

A shift to Labor over the previous three weeks has been blown away and then some in the latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has the Coalition up 1.5% on two-party preferred and gouges a further nine from Labor’s already feeble showing on the national seat projection (three seats from New South Wales plus one from each other state plus the combined territories result). The damage was done entirely by this week’s 58-42 Newspoll result, which is visible as the most recent outlier in the charts on the sidebar. The results from weekly pollsters Essential Research and Morgan were both consistent with a 55-45 trend that’s showed no real sign of budging since February. Another feature of the result is that the Greens have fallen to their lowest ebb this term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,989 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition”

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  1. Yes but there were no sandwiches thrown apparently my say. West End is Rudd heartland so it’s not surprising there were anti-Abbott protestors present.

  2. just seat warmer stuff … the same policies ex rendition of refugees would have been put through regardless who labor leader was.

    Good administators are not that uncommon. But that isn’t the job… the job is supposed to be national leader. Not national public service CEO.

  3. Yessiree Bob Joyce’s message was basically “we are going to win so if you want a local member on the winning side you have to vote for me”. Not the type of message someone confident of winning his seat would make. However it was Joyce so anything is likely.

  4. Latham was notorious for breaking that taxi-drivers’ arm in a dispute over a fare…obviously a case of criminal assaut…How did he escape jail?
    and could you imagine any great Labor leaders of the past…Curtin/Chifley/Whitlam/Hawke in such a situation>>
    Latham is a total scmumbag

  5. What will be examined and discussed will be Gillard’s decision to be the instrument in the execution of a first term PM …

    Unless Tony Abbott turns out to be the sort of Thatcherite that his backers in business, the IPA and the media want, the same fate awaits him. The media will decide that in this case overthrowing a first term PM was a regrettable necessity.

  6. Interesting chat with some 20 year olds and whether their hundreds of Facebook friends ever talk politics. Very little engagement it appears, though a number think Tony Abbott is a dickhead which gets posted on Facebook, so most of their friends won’t vote for him (in their opinion).

    None have ever been polled, and don’t know anyone who has.

  7. Rudd in Geelong
    I went to Geeling this AM on a brief visit as I have a son and his family there
    We were having coffee in thge mall when Rudd came along with Local MP’s etc in train and much elation
    he was greated like the Redemer…as tonight’s TV news showed…quite remarkable shows of support from ordinary bystanders.,and much support opn diuspla
    I barely escaped the frenzy of enthuisiasm….If I were Abbott I would be very worried if Rudd is ressurected…and the election would suddenly look like a real co

    ntest rather than an interment as is the case now

    We shall see

  8. [Unless Tony Abbott turns out to be the sort of Thatcherite that his backers in business, the IPA and the media want, the same fate awaits him. The media will decide that in this case overthrowing a first term PM was a regrettable necessity.]

    Abbott will be another Ted Bailleu, but more indolent. He will suffer the same fate.

  9. Obama morphs into Bush…with a touch of any dictator you like to chose
    The Guardian article on Obama’s frenzy for data interception

    Under his conservative regime(it is !) there has been a frnenzy of attacks on whistle blowers of every sort…Manning,Assenge if they can get him,,and numerous others…and now the biggest data capture in history…and Oh..and what happened to his policy of closng down Gitmo ?

  10. sprocket_ @ 1959 – yes, it amazes me how many in the polls say that they prefer Abbott as PM. He seems to be less ready for the job than anyone in recent history. I know they don’t hand out Rhodes Scholarships in cornflake packets but he seems to be such a dill. He has a limited grasp of complex policy issues, the few policies that he has committed to (e.g. Direct Action, PPL) are idiotic and his minders seem to keep him on a tight leash. He will only appear in friendly media wearing a butcher’s apron or fluoro vest or whatever, but rarely face probing questions. He looks like the perfect puppet leader. I’m looking forward to the Leaders’ debates.

  11. It is pretty obvious that Labor will do very much better under Rudd at the election with even the chance of a win. It is also obvious that Gillard will lose easily and very likely get annihilated.

    We are as confident about these things as is possible.

    It is so fascinating to see here that this is no longer about wanting Labor to win the election, or protecting Australia from Abbott and possibly with the Senate as well.

    People here know Gillard will lose and that Rudd would be a big boost to Labor, an amazing luxury for a political party about to die in a ditch.

    I call them liars, thoroughly dishonest in their pretention that they support Labor or are against Abbott…they are clearly not at all. This things mean nothing to them.

    They are only interested in one of two things. That Gillard doesn’t get her pride hurt by being dumped and thus proved a failure…OR Rudd be reinstated also hurting Gillard’s pride, being proof that she failed as a national leader.

    Amazing that so many would sacrifice the country for the sake of Gillard’s pride.

  12. [Loving the PM’s Facebook strategy. Direct, human, approachable, realistic with a touch of humility.]

    Whats her vegemite sandwich strategy?

    Duck, Weave and Roll

  13. [Obama morphs into Bush…with a touch of any dictator you like to chose]

    Apparently Obama’s lot have also been rabid on persecuting more whistleblowers than any before them.

    The guy is smooth…but selling the US Constitution down the drain. Nixon would be spinning in his grave at the injustice of his impeachment when Obama, so far, escapes such things.

  14. Spur 212 re Rudd in Geelong appearance post 1961
    Yes there was a palpable”feel ”
    in the air..when he camre….is charisma like perfume .?..does it linger on the air””

    I went to see later in the day.. a remarkable performance of an amazingly talent3ed young local dancer…a veritable Isadora Duncan in a concert…destined I think for a world stage…and even though just 8 ,my grand-daughter also has charisma…but not as much as Rudd..(but I think she dances better )

  15. [None have ever been polled, and don’t know anyone who has.]

    Ahh so thats the problem… Labor voters aren’t being polled.

    Just like they weren’t polled in 2011 before the NSW Election when all the polls said Labor would be wiped out. Oops.. hang on the polls underestimated the wipe out.

    But then we had the QLD State election polls that said Labor would be wiped out in the 2012 election. The polls said the LNP would thrash Labor, but they actually UNDERESTIMATED the LNP vote and the wipeout was worst.

    My conclusion is that LNP voters aren’t being polled in the same number as Labor voters because they work, have bills to pay and better things to do with their time.

  16. So how will the coalition go about wrecking the NBN. will they dissolve NBNco and create NBNliteco? how long will that take? will work stop while they do it? Or will they tell NBNco to start buying nodes? How many many lead acid batteries will they need. Should we all invest in Marshall Batteries? Will the NBNco engineers tell them to get stuffed with their stupid ideas? Will any nodes get installed at all?
    And what about direct action? Does anyone believe that the coalition will take any direct action at all?

  17. Roger Miller,

    Labors NBN needs 12 Million lead acid batteries, so you tell us if we should invest in battery companies?

  18. If you want to read of a real scum-bag politician then read this funny story from NY about one who lost(1) his pants.. then..(2) his seat in Congress…but who still hopes to be Mayor of NY

    only in America

  19. I’m not sure a 35 year old smear campaign will hold much traction now Gary. But the PM has had to endure a 20 year old smear campaign so fair’s fair I guess.

  20. Socialists from the 70’s claiming Abbott did something mean to them all those years ago really does smack of desperation.

  21. Today’s Age carries a string of letters denouncing Carr for his dismissal of any help for Assenge
    As one writer said it would make the change from Labor to Liberal foreign policy almost undetectable…given Carr’s syncophancy to the USA
    another reason for a Green vote

  22. [He left Sydney the following year to join the anti-whaling organisation Sea Shepherd, and these days lives as a secondary school principal in China.]

    Sounds legit… Kewl Story Bro…

  23. Sorry ..the funny story about the scum-bag US congressman from NY ,is below
    I forget to place it on post 1975

    a scum bay with flair and now want to be Mayor of NY…even thoiugh he has trouble with keeping his pants on

  24. Sea Shepherd followed by teaching kids in China. He sounds like a decent bloke, at least he didn’t spend his life as a Liberal bloodsucker.

  25. Sean Tisme goes fishing (under a bridge):

    [Roger Miller,

    Labors NBN needs 12 Million lead acid batteries, so you tell us if we should invest in battery companies?]

    You can do better than that. Labor’s NBN will need 10 billion asbestos batteries that burn down people’s houses.

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