BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition

This week’s Newspoll shocker has blown away the mild Labor recovery the BludgerTrack poll aggregate thought it was detecting after the budget.

A shift to Labor over the previous three weeks has been blown away and then some in the latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has the Coalition up 1.5% on two-party preferred and gouges a further nine from Labor’s already feeble showing on the national seat projection (three seats from New South Wales plus one from each other state plus the combined territories result). The damage was done entirely by this week’s 58-42 Newspoll result, which is visible as the most recent outlier in the charts on the sidebar. The results from weekly pollsters Essential Research and Morgan were both consistent with a 55-45 trend that’s showed no real sign of budging since February. Another feature of the result is that the Greens have fallen to their lowest ebb this term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,989 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition”

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  3. [William Bowe
    Posted Friday, June 7, 2013 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?

    Well? Anybody?]

    Gillard is better than both put together, is she going to win the election?

  4. [What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?]

    A bureaucratic style of organisation where you can have one unhinged following another but unhinged in different styles and ways.

  8. I personally, will NEVER forgive Latham for missing the opportunity, when he “shirt-fronted” JWH. at the door of the ABC. studio for not taking the heaven-sent opportunity of giving the “little runt” a gob-smacking, Liverpool kiss and thereby perhaps sparing the lives of over one hundred thousand Iraqis.
    Never forgive you Mark!

  10. What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?

    Well? Anybody?

    Simple answer the election of Julia Gillard, a winner.

    What opposition elects the likes of Abbott, a loser.

  11. [Simple answer the election of Julia Gillard, a winner.

    What opposition elects the likes of Abbott, a loser.]

    Watch this space….

  13. [I personally, will NEVER forgive Latham for missing the opportunity, when he “shirt-fronted” JWH. at the door of the ABC. studio for not taking the heaven-sent opportunity of giving the “little runt” a gob-smacking, Liverpool kiss and thereby perhaps sparing the lives of over one hundred thousand Iraqis.
    Never forgive you Mark!]

    And that was the continual media portrayal of Latham.

    They always go the labor leader be they in government or opposition but never as much pressure on the lib leader.

  16. [Violence is not the solution, joe carli]

    Tell your wall punching, sign pole bending, bottom stroker bovver boy idol that then mod lib.

  18. Anybody who wakes up one morning and says, “By the way, folks, we are at war.” And when that war is illegal, with us invading another independent country, for no good reason and on the back of a bald-faced lie, the Liberal Party should disband itself in shame.

  20. castle @ 1913

    And that was the continual media portrayal of Latham.

    They always go the labor leader be they in government or opposition but never as much pressure on the lib leader.

    You’re not serious right. Ask the Sydney taxi driver, Bachir Mustafa, who had his arm broken by Latham. The guy’s a thug.

  22. labor may well face an electoral defeat like 75 and 96.

    But in both cases the libs were lucky not to be a short term government.

    Fraser went to an election in 77 after Gough and retained the leadership by one vote due to a mid term rule of throwing the leader ship open and fraser capitalised by calling an early election which he won.

    As Cohen said if he had voted for Hayden in 77 then Fraser may well have held off on an early election and Hayden may well have won the election in 81 instead of losing in 80. We would have had Hayden and Keating two giants of reform.

    Howard lost the popular vote in 98 a mere two years after his landslide victory.

    And what are the two tories remembered for, Fraser losing his pants and Howard for a divisive government that blew the golden years and left a structural deficit that will take a generation to correct and pricing homes out of reach for the young.

  23. “Violence is not the solution, joe carli”…..and, ML. in what direction do you think your Mussolini emulator hero is taking this nation…AGAIN!..another LNP. warmonger!

    LNP. motto…”We make the wars…Leave others the clean-up chores!”

  24. [What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?]

    And of course Howard, Downer, Gillard.

    Lets not forget Gillard who sold out Australia, Labor and democracy to the factional warlords for the PMs job… probably the worst of the lot.

    And lets see Rudd was in power 5 minutes having gotten rid of Howard, saved many Australian families from the unemployment lines and help protect Australia from the GFC… no small thing, but of course that is a bit inconvenient.

  26. [Lets not forget Gillard who sold out Australia, Labor and democracy to the factional warlords for the PMs job… probably the worst of the lot.]

    That funny enough is the strength of a bureaucratic organisations in removing the unhinged, it holds the power not the individual.

    Why have not the libs removed Abbott, why did they not remove Howard?

  27. Gillard will be seen as the central figure in the destruction of Labor.

    What will be examined and discussed will be Gillard’s decision to be the instrument in the execution of a first term PM of a party that had been in opposition for more than a decade, that had just saved Aust from the GFC.

    The reasons behind the knifing, just how many years out was the plan, and was it moral and ethical for Gillard to do so. Her motivations against her stated excuses.

    She will come out very badly in this because … there were zero reasons to do such a stupid, outrageous thing that simply betrayed the public that just decided to dump Howard for Rudd Labor.

    History will not be kind to Gillard and her judas role in the self destruction.

  29. [That funny enough is the strength of a bureaucratic organisations in removing the unhinged, it holds the power not the individual.]

    Yes and they installed their incompetent puppet Gillard. hopless at politics and they refuse to accept their mistake and remove her now.

  30. Thos Paine..seems a tad put-out by the PM. Could it be he needs a name change..say to ; Pane..as he appears to have a glass-jaw!

  32. howes, feeney, farrell, shorten, conroy the henchmen who brought down the ALP to install their puppet Gillard. where has psephos gone he is also mixed up in this madness.

  37. Whatever you feel about Rudd it should be obvious that the guy knows how to campaign.

    Gillard seems unable to campaign well, which is surprising given that she performs well in parliament and when cornered.

    However the evidence is plain. She seems process driven and very like a rather dull headmistress. Partly I think it is her choice of subject matter – always a tad banal so it seems as if she is talking down. Sort of like when the teacher feeds us easy stuff cos she thinks we are too dumb and lazy to understand any thing harder. Rudd by contrast presents us with the hard stuff but give a short sharp summary sentence so we both understand what he is saying AND feel that he has acknowledged our intellect – ie not treated us like twelve year olds.

  38. Loving the PM’s Facebook strategy. Direct, human, approachable, realistic with a touch of humility.

    As opposed to her detractors in R*dd/Abbott (Ruddott?)
    who are smug, smirking, arrogant and ‘we know best’.

  41. Well the strategy from team Gillard is to say the election is over (i presume to rally enough voters to stop an uber majority).

  42. [Well the strategy from team Gillard is to say the election is over (i presume to rally enough voters to stop an uber majority).]

    They know how to fight and vilify their own, they aren’t so effective against outsiders (Howard vilified himself, they haven’t actively defeated a Liberal leader since Hewson).

  43. This week’s strategy is to claim the underdog status apparently. Except they are taking it to a whole new level of three-legged, mangy underdog. MP’s packing their offices, MP’s quoting from the PM’s spin sheet and so on.

  45. With 100 days to go the over-confidence from the Libs may be Labor’s best hope. Joyce’s comments weren’t a good look.

  47. [Yes and they installed their incompetent puppet Gillard. hopless at politics and they refuse to accept their mistake and remove her now.]

    The incompetent puppet has implemented more reforms than any other PM since Gough, give me more of these incompetent puppets.

  48. [With 100 days to go the over-confidence from the Libs may be Labor’s best hope. Joyce’s comments weren’t a good look.]

    DW even the libs don’t want Abbott they would prefer Turnball as you have said, labor showed the strength of their organisation whilst the libs show their weakness.

    Electoral success is not in the elections you win but in the reforms you implement.

  49. Joyce’s comments sounded like someone who thinks they are behind rather than in a winning position. Interesting.

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