BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition

This week’s Newspoll shocker has blown away the mild Labor recovery the BludgerTrack poll aggregate thought it was detecting after the budget.

A shift to Labor over the previous three weeks has been blown away and then some in the latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has the Coalition up 1.5% on two-party preferred and gouges a further nine from Labor’s already feeble showing on the national seat projection (three seats from New South Wales plus one from each other state plus the combined territories result). The damage was done entirely by this week’s 58-42 Newspoll result, which is visible as the most recent outlier in the charts on the sidebar. The results from weekly pollsters Essential Research and Morgan were both consistent with a 55-45 trend that’s showed no real sign of budging since February. Another feature of the result is that the Greens have fallen to their lowest ebb this term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,989 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition”

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  1. Finnigans seems to think the USA should do us a favour and send a cruze missile

    [TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans 29m

    hey CIA, NSC, this is a photo of Tony Abbott, he wants to be Aust PM, do something pic.twitter.com/4HVdK6qE1r
    ]

  2. Can’t Do Newman is minced meat – cut backs in public service, cover up’s & deaths = a 1 term LNP guvment for Queensland + he’s cursed Bligh. Also cow shit all through our national parks, flogging off public assets with the aid of Captain Smirk, killing the reef, no GONSKI – he’s gorn.

  3. Sean Tisme@1848

    All Rudd did was go to the shopping centre to talk to his constituents.

    He can’t help it he’s more popular than Gillard.

    Now he’s being accused of “robbing the PM of clean air” because everyone likes him and everyone hates Gillard.

    I am a teacher.

    Reminds me of that classic from a little bastard who has been making another’s life miserable:

    “Please sir, all I did was……..”

    I call bullshit.

  4. For those wary of Rudd, the argument is simple:

    When it comes to communicating with the masses, there is an X factor at work. Some have it; some don’t. Tony Abbott most assuredly does not have it (which speaks volumes about how weak his opponent must be, by definition, in this area).

    It is a matter of luck. It is not Julia Gillard’s fault that she just can’t get her message across effectively. Some are born communicators, most are not. Barack Obama is a superb communicator.

    And frankly, as made patently clear in the past day or so, Rudd has the goods.

    Love him or loathe him, he was born with the ability to speak in a way that cuts through – even, perversely, when he’s speaking a bit of gobblydegook (last night on 730 he used some phrase “strategic trust deficit” when speaking about China and the US).

  5. what can one say.

    [Ghost of PJK ‏@GhostOfPJK 1h

    We did all notice that the 2 ALP MP’s packing there offices are RUDD SUPPORTERS…didn’t we people…didn’t we? #auspol]

  6. This tweet sums it up well:

    [ Can’t Do ‏@cantdo101 1h

    We’ve seen @TonyAbbottMHR for more than 20 years as a politician. Do you think he will change in the next 100 days or 100yrs? #AusPol
    Retweeted by Ghost of PJK ]

  7. [Oakeshott Country….

    Excuse me for replying but you have spent the last year saying its all about a personality contest in which the PMs broad vowels play a large part.]

    I dont think it is a personality contest, I think the incumbent has made continuous elementary mistakes and is a poor communicator and I am amazed at how long it is taking the ALP caucus to work out what the rest of us worked out years ago.

    The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour- what do folk think is going to be different about the next 100 days versus the last 1000?

    [Btw: as a matter of interest you know my former specialty and Dio’s but what is yours?
    I find the party politics of medicine interesting. ]

    ….kinda prefer keeping my personal details private. FWIW I don’t recall finding out yours, and I know Dio is a surgeon but given all the talk about him being a tree surgeon, I cant remember exactly what he cuts out now!!!!!!

  8. Not sure who Mike is insulting!

    [Mike Stuchbery ‏@MikeRStuchbery 1h

    Andrew Bolt is Larry Pickering in a David Jones suit.]

  9. frednk

    And my local member was one of them – he said of course they were that is what happens when a election is a couple of weeks away.

    And by the way in the last challenge against Gillard Melham voted for her.

  10. Tony is being a pain again. It is obvious that Tony won’t leave anyone in peace, and will try to ruin everything. I suppose Tony exists as a pain because no-one took notice of the niggling discomfort early on, and he has been let grow into a menace. Well if Tony wants some attention I will see he gets attention. He thinks he is an important SOB but when he is torn out of his cushy seat, he will find life goes on without him quite nicely thank you. No one will miss Tony for a second, and the toxic grump is going to end up in the hazardous waste bin. 👿

  11. @two bobs worth/1860

    Yes, but does it mean also a change of leadership? or is it the election itself? It’s still what 100 days away?

  12. [And my local member was one of them – he said of course they were that is what happens when a election is a couple of weeks away. ]

    I think all MPs pack up their offices when an election is called. There is absolutely no guarantee they will get the same office next parliament.

    So if you want to have a couple of extra days campaigning in your electorate, get ready to leave on 27th June.

    Its not rocket science, its a Latika Bourke beat up.

  13. [I think they mainly vote for more money in their pockets and/ or more services. They also vote for stability. Hence Labor’s poor showing despite good policies. A change of leader is not going to change the perception of being a rabble, quite the opposite.]

    I think you are right on that OC, though the leader also does have an influence.

    My dad said to me when Gough was defeated in 77 that it was a case of I’m alright jack and bugger the rest of you, ie thinking just for their own circumstances.

    But I did not vote for Latham, partly because of his hate the libs and also that labor members were saying elect mark and we would be in for a wild ride.

    Though Latham now comes across as very mature and savvy, if he was like he was today in 04 he would have gone a lot closer. I have more respect now for him.

  14. [I think they mainly vote for more money in their pockets and/ or more services. They also vote for stability. Hence Labor’s poor showing despite good policies. A change of leader is not going to change the perception of being a rabble, quite the opposite.]

    I think you are right on that OC, though the leader also does have an influence.

    My dad said to me when Gough was defeated in 77 that it was a case of I’m alright jack and bugger the rest of you, ie thinking just for their own circumstances.

    But I did not vote for Latham, partly because of his hate the libs and also that labor members were saying elect mark and we would be in for a wild ride.

    Though Latham now comes across as very mature and savvy, if he was like he was today in 04 he would have gone a lot closer. I have more respect now for him.

  15. [Though Latham now comes across as very mature and savvy, if he was like he was today in 04 he would have gone a lot closer. I have more respect now for him.]

    It does somewhat diminish the ALP argument “Vote for our leader” given what you now say about the leaders you put forward in the 2004 and 2007 elections.

    I wonder what the ALP groupthink will be regarding Gillard in times to come?????

  16. [We saw a similar situation when Rudd was PM, rushing all around Australia and overseas to sell his pet projects, while Julia sorted out the administration and kept things together.]

    Julia has earned her place in history whatever the result and will be as lauded as Gough is for her visions, programs and policies.

    Abbott should he get in as seems likely will be remembered like Fraser.

  17. [It does somewhat diminish the ALP argument “Vote for our leader” given what you now say about the leaders you put forward in the 2004 and 2007 elections.]

    It completely diminishes the libs that they have Abbott as a leader and will shame them for years to come.

  18. Last Newspoll under Kevin Rudd:
    TPP
    52% Labor
    48% Coalition

    Last Newspoll under Gillard:
    TPP
    42% Labor
    58% Coalition

    Pollbludger Labor Hack Conclusion: Stick with Gillard

  19. [Abbott should he get in as seems likely will be remembered like Fraser.]

    More like McMahon the only difference is Tony would have won an election.

  20. Castle has some thoughts for us all..; “Though Latham now comes across as very mature and savvy, if he was like he was today in 04 he would have gone a lot closer. I have more respect now for him.”

    Perhaps you could put your pontificating philosophies into book form…there must be a 50/50 chance some people other than yourself share such sanctimonious sentiments.

  21. Here’s another way of looking at it.

    Most of us agree that FTTP is far superior to FTTN. Am I right or am I right.

    The cost benefit analysis (which Malcolm won’t go anywhere near, except for criticising Stephen for not going anywhere near), is, by any fair analysis, a line-ball scrum-feed as far as dollars and sense goes.

    Is this a nudge in the left direction for anyone with even 3oz of native common sense to apply to the current political situation? Or is it not. Thank you.

    Look. The libs have form on this. They exaggerate. I call it (trumpets please) – “the Whyalla factor”.

    I just looked up google maps. Guess what. Whyalla is still there.

    And get this: not only is Whyalla still on the map, IT’S IN THE FRIGGIN NBN 1 YEAR ROLLOUT!!!

    Would you believe it. Knock me down with a pink feather duster.

    The weird thing is, polls rate nearly all Labor’s policies highly. The guv’s rated by the ferals and professors alike as a policy powerhouse. Except ..

    Except ..

    … they have a red-headed Welsh female as leader. Oh dear.

    GIVE US A BREAK! (translation: what a stupid reason for voting against your best interests.)

    The woman’s got both balls AND tits. Unlike noddy tones who sleeps through the really IMPORTANT VOTES.

    Ah well. As I said before, I’m scouring the real-estate ads in Kiama. Just in case.

    But my left kidney still tells me that the tones will be routed. Believe me, many will not vote for a compulsive nodder.

    You heard it here first.

  22. [“Please sir, all I did was……..”

    I call bullshit.]

    Pretty sad leader if she requires somebody to be invisible to not show up just how unpopulare her and her govt are.

    And I could say…..

    ‘why didn’t you do something to save them if you knew you could?’

    ‘Just following instructions sir..’

    I call BS on the do nothing shut up idea.

    Teacher…’learn to think for yourself, this is a classroom not a religious sect’

    SO again…How bloody sad is it if people scream murder because Rudd didn’t hide and make out he wasn’t alive….because….well Gillard is so freaking unpopular and her government are going to get smashed….having Rudd appear is very unreasonable as it alerts everybody to the fact that there is a solution to being thrashed at the election and delivering everything to Abbott.

    Ohh no .. but that is no good…because because…..its isn’t fair. When he was stabbed in the back he was supposed to be dead… no fair.

  23. “So Abbott will try & regain his humanity as Fraser has , I doubt it.”

    That would take an implant of a soul..and since such an organ has yet to be discovered,with no hope of finding such in a LNP. body…you are correct MH.

  24. Of course…from the very beginning…at least 12 month before he was knifed…if not from the moment they made him LOTO….the intention of the factional warlords was to replace him.

    And they knifed at the very slimest opportunity with no cause, no rationale, no acceptable reason to the public, media or anybody.

    IT has been from the moment he was made LOTO and then PM…about internal factional power.

    AND the only thing they have had to hang their hat on is Rudd was a very nasty wasty man to those softy Union bosses and long term labor MPs. AND he was so dysfunctional that he saved Aust from the GFC…in a way recognised as one of the world’s best.

    And it is still about the factional wankertocracy. Except the political tragics managed to adopt Gillard as some sort of idol and so have to protect her regardless of all else…BECAUSE she has failed and will fail.

  25. [ Pollbludger Labor Hack Conclusion: Stick with Gillard ]
    too right mate just make sure your mob sticks with abbott

  26. [It completely diminishes the libs that they have Abbott as a leader and will shame them for years to come.]

    And such a statement completely diminishes Mod Lib’s stated opposition to an Abbott PMship.

    As I said the other day, the way Mod Lib cheersquads the PM’s demise at the hands of the LOTO, makes his previous alleged protestations about the prospect of LOTO becoming PM look like outright lies just so he could inculcate himself from accusations of being a typical Liberal shill.

  27. “…having Rudd appear is very unreasonable as it alerts everybody to the fact that there is a solution to being thrashed at the election and delivering everything to Abbott.”

    Who is this complainer?..Does he have any allegiance at all? He criticises Gillard, curses Abbott..is he a Green?..just who or what is this person?

  28. [castle
    Posted Friday, June 7, 2013 at 8:15 pm | PERMALINK
    ….

    It completely diminishes the libs that they have Abbott as a leader and will shame them for years to come.]

    Like having Howard as leader diminished the Libs?

    Diminished by 11 1/2 years with another decade to come?

  29. Paine – you need to turn your microscope onto Abbott as you know he will be PM why waste your time on Rudd & Gillard.

  30. [Crowd protests against Tony Abbott in Brisbane]
    JASON TIN THE COURIER-MAIL JUNE 07, 2013 7:24PM
    And he thought he was in friendly territory. 😆

  31. [Most of us agree that FTTP is far superior to FTTN. Am I right or am I right]

    There is one very important fact of FTTN that the media has not reported on.

    That is the massive kerbside boxes needed to power the FTTN from the node to the house.

    The boxes emit a continuous low hum due to the electricity needed to power them, worse than the noise emitted by wind towers.

    Do people really want these on their streets, putting up with the hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm all through the night.

    Will we see massive compensation payouts and/or sound insulation so that we will not have to put up with it.

    Apart from the continual hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm there is also the electro-magentic radiation that has ot properly been analysed that the FTTN boxes of the libs will put out, over 550,000 of them around the country.

    But of course Abbott Turnball and co have not divulged this to us.

  32. What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?

    What conclusions can be drawn from this about the more general problems within such an organisation? Or are these better left unexamined?

    Maybe the Bludgers have it right, and introspection would be too painful. Best to form a cult around dear failing Julia instead and to get rid of all their negative feelings with the demonisation of the great enemy – the evil leader of the opposition, with his dick-thrusting walk and brutish appearance, the very embodiment of sexism and brutishness.

    If only any of it were true Bludgers. And if only you could convince the Australian people to join you in your delusions. Then you might have a chance.

  33. [What sort of organisation, in the space of only a few years, elects individuals of the character of Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as its representative and leader?]

    Well? Anybody?

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