Watson covers inner suburban territory roughly 15 kilometres south-west of central Sydney, from Strathfield and Burwood Heights at the city end to Greenacre and Lakemba further afield. The electorate was called St George from its creation in 1949 until 1993, reflecting the unofficial name of the Hurstville, Rockdale and Kogarah area of Sydney which it formerly encompassed. Watson was drawn further away from its traditional base when the redistribution before the 2010 election abolished its northern neighbour Lowe, from which it absorbed southern Strathfield and Burwood Heights. It also gained Greenacre, Mount Lewis and part of Punchbowl to the west, which were formerly in Banks, while in the south it lost Earlwood and Kingsgrove to Barton and Hurstville to Banks. This left only the voters in the City of Canterbury, accounting for barely half the total, to carry over to the newly redrawn seat. The affected areas were a mixed bag electorally, the changes serving to reduce the Labor margin by 1.9%.
The electorate of St George was for much of its history a classically marginal middle suburban seat, frequently changing hands until Whitlam government minister Bill Morrison recovered it for Labor in 1980 after being unseated in 1975 (the unsuccessful candidate in the intervening 1977 election was Whitlam’s son Antony, who had served in the previous term as member for Grayndler). Morrison was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Dubois, who retired when Watson was created in 1993 as part of a rearrangement that abolished St George and the Bondi-area electorate of Phillip. Labor accommodated Phillip MP Jeannette McHugh in Grayndler, while Right faction heavyweight Leo McLeay moved from Grayndler to Watson. Meanwhile, Labor’s grip tightened thanks to demographic change which has left Watson with the highest proportion of non-English speakers (72.8%) of any electorate in the country, most notably through the concentration of Lebanese at Lakemba and Chinese and Koreans at Campsie. However, the trend to Labor sharply reversed amid a Sydney-wide backlash at the 2010 election, which reduced Labor’s 18.2% margin by exactly half.
Watson has been held since McLeay’s retirement in 2004 by Tony Burke, who had entered politics the previous year as a member of the state upper house. McLeay had long hoped that his son Paul would assume the seat upon his retirement, but the strength of support for Burke within the Right compelled him to abandon the idea. Paul McLeay was instead accommodated in the state seat of Heathcote, which he held from 2003 until he joined the Labor casualty list at the 2011 state election. Burke meanwhile won swift promotion to the shadow ministry in 2005, going on to serve in cabinet as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister in the Rudd-Gillard government’s first term and as Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities Minister (further gaining arts in March 2013) in its second. Burke has been a resolute supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, and spoke publicly of the “chaos” of Kevin Rudd’s prime ministership when he launched his unsuccessful challenged in February 2012.
The Liberals have preselected Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to national attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006. Delezio ran in Banks at the 2010 election, picking up an 8.9% swing against Labor’s Daryl Melham, and unsuccessfully sought preselection there again for the coming election.
Did anyone see the patently racist type on 730 last night who has been ripping off Indian students by promising them permanent residency if they take a “course”. Qualified Hindu accountants (India) being offered jobs in a slaughterhouse. When they refuse it they are sued for thousands. I hope someone will help them. The manager of the firm is indescribably prejudiced. ‘They’re all liars, “these people”.’
[We see the same behaviour from Gillard haters here: hundreds of comments yesterday and Thursday night all trying to second guess the true motivations of the Member for Griffith. He’s coming back! He’s challenging! He’s doing this, doing that.
Like the Gillard-hating press gallery, they can’t just accept that perhaps, as Elder suggests, R*dd has learned that opposition within government is a very lonely place to be. Esp if your only company are idiots like Joel Fitzgibbon, or petulant has-beens like Kim Carr and Mar’n.]
I see your delusional behaviour continues Confessions. you do realize the option is remove Gillard at the end of June or Sept 14th. 30th June is preferable as it does atleast provide the chance of saving some furniture with a small chance of victory. Can you really not accept Gillard has no chance of winning, are you really that deluded?
[19
confessions
Posted Saturday, June 8, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink
Having Rudd as leader in this election was essential to the Liberal psyche.]
I suspect this thesis is just hyper-ventilation from A. Elder. The LNP do not care who they defeat, as long as they win. From their point of view, they have already defeated Rudd and will be happy to defeat JG as well.
The motive for talking about a Rudd comeback is to add a few more media-miles to the ‘Labor is divided and unstable’ theme that has been running for ever and ever.
[“If (governments) were to lift their game, the industry would be in better shape,” Mr Combet said]
Regarding Combet and yet another push for governments to buy more Aussie made cars, it will not solve anything, but will make it look like the government is doing something between now and the September change of government, so it is what passes for good policy.
I do not think we make bad cars. Falcons are actually quite reliable, Camry’s very well built, and HSV commodores drive brilliantly, as Top Gear has confirmed. The problem is we make the wrong cars. Also we make unsophisticated cars, that can be made elsewhere much more cheaply.
We had already reached the point in 2012 where more than 75% of Aussie cars were government or fleet buys attracting some kind of subsidy. Private buyers want something else. Non-car making states are reluctant to buy Aussie cars because they cannot sell them later except at a huge loss, making them very costly. So they are stopping buying them. So we pay people to buy cars that nobody wants, in order to keep a very SMALL number of people in work.
I nearly choked when I heard a particularly dishonest Labor polly say yesterday that there were a quarter of a million jobs tied up in cars. What a lie! Counting all the sales, maintenance and repair staff (who keep their jobs with imported cars) there are less than 100,000 jobs tied up in the auto industry, with less than 40,000 in manufacturing, less than 10,000 of which are direct jobs in car plants. The advertising industry probably employs more people than make cars here.
I realise as their doom approahes Labor will get more desperate and will say more tupid things, but please guys, try to show some dignity. At least come up with some cleverer lies. Ex Labor spin doctor will not be a very impressive thing to have on your CV post September 15.
I was interested(?) yesterday to hear Shorten throwing in the towel and Combet vowing to fight on.
Repeating for reality to hit.
Nathan Rees just put it well from lessons learnt in NSW.
Leadership change is instability. He thinks Rudd should not have been dumped. However now he thinks there should be no leadership change even back to Rudd.
Why? It institutionalises instability to have continual leadership changes.
So take from someone at the coalface. No leadership change it only helps the LNP.
lizzie
That surprised me as well. I think Combet is a real Labor man where Shorten is a Right Wing faction hack who is losing his grip on control of the Party.
[Leadership change is instability. He thinks Rudd should not have been dumped. However now he thinks there should be no leadership change even back to Rudd.
Why? It institutionalises instability to have continual leadership changes.
So take from someone at the coalface. No leadership change it only helps the LNP.]
except in this case it is a change back to the person who was in power. an acceptance that the decision was wrong. Gillard is headed for the rocks – fact it aint changing. Rudd injects some hope and optimism. Gillard perpetuates more misery.
The Melbourne Footy club are sticking with Neeld atm, for stability, and aint they a roaring success?
guytaur
While Rees is entitled to his opinion it is not to say that there are dozens of others in the ALP who disagree.
He is but one man expressing his opinion.
spectator
Go view what Rees has to say on youtube for yourself. From someone who knows as he dumped Iemma and was then dumped in turn.
two bobs worth
I admired Shorten for pushing the NDIS, but I don’t think he’s done well in the asbestos “crisis”. Repeating over and over that people have a right to be frightened was not helpful and fell in with Turnbull’s beat-up about it being the government’s fault.
Yesiree Bob @ 109
Very subtle and clever!
2bob
A man in the ALP with more experience of what leadership change does than almost anyone in the party.
A man who did not think Rudd should be dumped as PM
lizzie
Agree!
BREAKING – One person dead after sinking of a boat near Christmas Island.
Here we go again!
You’d better get your story straight before dumping Gillard. I’ve heard so many conflicting reasons to do it that it’s going to be a complete mess.
It’s too late Guytaur.
Instability has already done its damage.
Rudd has a better chance of cutting through.
You’ve got to get the big calls right – which Labor has not done since Jan 2010.
And now it’s time to head to the flatlands for the PB/PUB SA Chapter luncheon with the visting gorgeousdunny.
I fear that the problem for the ALP might not be solved, even if defeated by the most incompetent LOTTO in Australian Political History. Not while the factional hacks who have gotten us in this mess remain ensconced in their safe seats.
Put the likes of Feeny in a Marginal, where he might actually have to fight for re-election, and we might start seeing a different story
guytaur
He is a left winger (as I am btw) and Premier for a while so what!
He is one voice in the ALP as we all are so what.
He is not delivering a sermon from the Mount.
centre
The call of that led to the revolving door of NSW leadership.
Labor is doing right thing now. Rudd inside the tent selling Labor with no leadership change
BK
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-08/authorities-search-for-boat-sinking-near-christmas-island/4741878]
That report says the boat was 120km NW of Christmas Island. Not exactly on the beach. In my living room I am closer to Kangaroo Island than that. I wouldn’t care to make the swim. All very sad if there are drownings but, people in small boats, making open ocean voyages in winter, then sinking in what was probably still darkness, ar not exactly easy to save, let alone find.
[Throughout the past 15 months, my ability to do good has been impaired at every turn.
A malign and disloyal group well known to the […] community has made the business of government almost impossible.
The presence of such a group within the nation’s oldest and proudest political Party is intolerable.
Their treachery and disloyalty can be borne no longer.]
2bob
Experience counts. How many other Labor leaders have dumped and then been dumped themselves.
No matter your fantasy the reality of what leadership change means that caucus will not do it. All the NSW members from Carr down can tell them about it.
I am off too. I think it is far too late to credibly replace Gillard with Rudd. Have a good day all.
Socrates
I sourced that from a banner underneath Sky News.
“Near” ? FFS!
Countless numbers of casual workers were condemned to be permanently without sick, carers, maternity, bereavement or holiday leave after workchoices. Once upon a time before workchoices, they would have had these rights after 2 years of employment, but no more. Workchoices permanently changed that.
I work with people every day who have young families and are casual employees without these conditions of employment. Contrary to popular opinion, they’re not earning huge amounts of money, mostly around 55000 per year, and still have to pay enormous rents in Sydney.
This will be the fate of many thousands more workers if the LNP gain government.
Guytaur
Your argument only holds merit if Labor were to change to a third leader.
The question now is timing.
When is the spot on time to switch back to Rudd?
Yesiree Bob
No we couldn’t do that Feeney might have to do a bit of work for a change and now he wants the very safe seat of Batman so he can remain in permanent employment and be paid for the rest of his life.
And people ask what is wrong with the ALP!
Centre
Nope. Argument holds even if you do return to Rudd. LNP will keep on with chaos and incompetence withe the line “So desperate its back to the Future with a failed leader” They then run Swan, Crean etc comments.
More destabilisation. No clear air. No gain
[I nearly choked when I heard a particularly dishonest Labor polly say yesterday that there were a quarter of a million jobs tied up in cars. What a lie! Counting all the sales, maintenance and repair staff (who keep their jobs with imported cars) there are less than 100,000 jobs tied up in the auto industry, with less than 40,000 in manufacturing, less than 10,000 of which are direct jobs in car plants. The advertising industry probably employs more people than make cars here.]
Sector Employment
Motor Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing 50,370
Automotive Repair and Maintenance 141,714
Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Retailing 93,401
Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Wholesaling 27,704
Total Manufacturing Employment 941,401
Motor Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing as a Percentage of
Total Manufacturing 5.35%
Sector contribution to R&D: Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts as a Percentage of Total Manufacturing is 19.4%
BK
Yes, it was a pretty outrageous banner. Even their ABC didn’t try that lie. Have a good lunch. I’d like to join you for one in future when I have more time.
guytaur
My last response to you for today – believe me I don’t live in a world of fantasy.
Sorry … the link was
http://innovation.gov.au/Industry/Automotive/Statistics/Documents/AutomotiveDataCard.pdf
The perfect time to switch back to Rudd would never have been before this month at the earliest.
Why?
Because Labor would be changing to a 3rd leader today – OLD MEDIA would’ve destroyed Rudd by now even easier than they destroyed Gillard 😎
2bob
Then stop talking of a Rudd return. Caucus will not do it.
that is reality. Accept Rudd is doing a good job campaigning as ever.
A salesman he is. A leader no more.
The sooner you accept that is what caucus has done the happier you will be.
Two Bobs Worth @130, yep and when people like him start talking about working conditions, you know it’s only lip-service.
Asserting that Rudd will overcome all the perceived problems with the party because Rudd is just as much a world of fantasy as asserting that Gillard will pull something out of her hat.
Gecko
I am aware of those statistics and they lump together many things, including people who make trucks, buses etc. plus others who repair, sell, wash etc. The dishonest politician I referred to said there were over a quarter of a million people with jobs tied up in MAKING (Aussie) cars. That is simply not true.
[Ms Gillard told the meeting Australia’s automotive industry skills base must be maintained.
“There’s a quarter of a million Australians who make their living, either directly or indirectly, from car-making,” she said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-07/pm-meets-auto-industry-leaders/4740824?section=business
If you want some honest estimates of how many jobs there are tied up in car manufacturing read what Adelaide thinker in residence Goran Ros has written. He said maybe 46,000.
Guytaur
No. That is not reality. Not reality at all.
Of course caucus can switch back to Rudd. And there is a fair possibility they will do so.
My good friend, a former senior Labor politician, will be disappointed that his brilliant idea to save his old party from annilhilation, has attracted so little comment.
For those who missed it, here it is:
1. Julia Gillard declares that she has worked tirelessly for the Australian people. She talks of more than 400 pieces of legislation which have passed the Australian Parliament. Landmark legislation never before contemplated – Murray Darling, disabilities, NBN, schools etc etc. She leaves a poweful legacy for generations of Australians.
2. She tells how she has never flinched in the face of relentless Opposition negativity and the dishonest campaigning of the Murdoch media in particular. She is a strong woman who would never ever quit in normal circumstances. But her love for the Labor Party is such that she will never see it diminished.
3. Therefore she has decided to step aside. But only for a distinguished statesman who will continue to do an outstanding job for his country – Senator Bob Carr.
Carr then gains preselection for a winnable lower house seat, takes Labor to an election, limits the electoral damage and then reforms the NSW ALP.
(Disclaimer: I’m not sure if it would work, either. But any idea, especially the Rudd option, should be in-house poll-tested just in case there’s any chance to avoid total disaster).
“@ABCNews24: Peter Garrett: State premiers have to step up to the plate and deliver for students http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol #Gonski”
“@ABCNews24: Peter Garrett: The Coalition is intimidating and bullying the states on #Gonski reforms http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol”
Centre
Not before the election they will not. After if a change in leader happens it may not be to Rudd.
Toorak Toff
I’m not sure it will work, but I have to concede that that is a complete plan.
Julia is damaged.
She was damaged when she accepted a fixed starting price for carbon.
She was warned – keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news.
You switch to Rudd, people will listen, then BANG into the campaign AND expose the
for what he is!
Put another way, the Political ambitions of certain factional hacks within the ALP are better suited from Opposition.
Its simple really. The majority of caucus seems to agree with Rees.
Saving the furniture requires a united party. I think Mr Rudd agrees with this from his public statements too.
I will continue to think this until caucus proves otherwise.
This is the point all those talking leadership have nothing from caucus to go on. Nothing from Rudd. Nothing from caucus.
Just lots of LNP talk and media tea leaf reading.
Toorak Toff
I think I replied to you yesterday saying that it should not be Bob Carr.
Your friend is very wise he obviously wants the best for his party.
Centre
People are listening to Rudd now. See Geelong visit. No need to change leaders to get that.