Seat of the week: Watson

The inner suburban seat of Watson is on the long list of Sydney seats where Labor is considered in danger of a once unthinkable defeat – potentially cutting short the career of one of the government’s senior figures.

Watson covers inner suburban territory roughly 15 kilometres south-west of central Sydney, from Strathfield and Burwood Heights at the city end to Greenacre and Lakemba further afield. The electorate was called St George from its creation in 1949 until 1993, reflecting the unofficial name of the Hurstville, Rockdale and Kogarah area of Sydney which it formerly encompassed. Watson was drawn further away from its traditional base when the redistribution before the 2010 election abolished its northern neighbour Lowe, from which it absorbed southern Strathfield and Burwood Heights. It also gained Greenacre, Mount Lewis and part of Punchbowl to the west, which were formerly in Banks, while in the south it lost Earlwood and Kingsgrove to Barton and Hurstville to Banks. This left only the voters in the City of Canterbury, accounting for barely half the total, to carry over to the newly redrawn seat. The affected areas were a mixed bag electorally, the changes serving to reduce the Labor margin by 1.9%.

The electorate of St George was for much of its history a classically marginal middle suburban seat, frequently changing hands until Whitlam government minister Bill Morrison recovered it for Labor in 1980 after being unseated in 1975 (the unsuccessful candidate in the intervening 1977 election was Whitlam’s son Antony, who had served in the previous term as member for Grayndler). Morrison was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Dubois, who retired when Watson was created in 1993 as part of a rearrangement that abolished St George and the Bondi-area electorate of Phillip. Labor accommodated Phillip MP Jeannette McHugh in Grayndler, while Right faction heavyweight Leo McLeay moved from Grayndler to Watson. Meanwhile, Labor’s grip tightened thanks to demographic change which has left Watson with the highest proportion of non-English speakers (72.8%) of any electorate in the country, most notably through the concentration of Lebanese at Lakemba and Chinese and Koreans at Campsie. However, the trend to Labor sharply reversed amid a Sydney-wide backlash at the 2010 election, which reduced Labor’s 18.2% margin by exactly half.

Watson has been held since McLeay’s retirement in 2004 by Tony Burke, who had entered politics the previous year as a member of the state upper house. McLeay had long hoped that his son Paul would assume the seat upon his retirement, but the strength of support for Burke within the Right compelled him to abandon the idea. Paul McLeay was instead accommodated in the state seat of Heathcote, which he held from 2003 until he joined the Labor casualty list at the 2011 state election. Burke meanwhile won swift promotion to the shadow ministry in 2005, going on to serve in cabinet as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister in the Rudd-Gillard government’s first term and as Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities Minister (further gaining arts in March 2013) in its second. Burke has been a resolute supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, and spoke publicly of the “chaos” of Kevin Rudd’s prime ministership when he launched his unsuccessful challenged in February 2012.

The Liberals have preselected Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to national attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006. Delezio ran in Banks at the 2010 election, picking up an 8.9% swing against Labor’s Daryl Melham, and unsuccessfully sought preselection there again for the coming election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,840 comments on “Seat of the week: Watson”

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  1. [“Gillard-haters”* like Drag0nista and Leigh Sales are clearly upset. They’d be fine if Rudd was undermining Gillard; they’d be fine if Rudd went to ground, and rendered himself politically inert. Both fit the Abbott’s-inevitable-Gillard’s-doomed Narrative. Because he’s done neither, they play word games with him: do you rule out … are you leaving the door open for … ]

    We see the same behaviour from Gillard haters here: hundreds of comments yesterday and Thursday night all trying to second guess the true motivations of the Member for Griffith. He’s coming back! He’s challenging! He’s doing this, doing that.

    Like the Gillard-hating press gallery, they can’t just accept that perhaps, as Elder suggests, R*dd has learned that opposition within government is a very lonely place to be. Esp if your only company are idiots like Joel Fitzgibbon, or petulant has-beens like Kim Carr and Mar’n.

  2. A teacher, nemspy? Who can’t count.

    If you have a look at many of the job applicants and their education level I now understand why they can’t either.

    “I thought Rudd was dead and buried”

    What does a two to one hiding tell you? 71 to 31?

    “I would suggest that the remainder fear recrimination from Gillard and her supporters.”

    The ALP is not the LNP and Murdoch, or have your observation and comprehension skills gone the way of your numeracy?

  3. [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, June 8, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    “Gillard-haters”* like Drag0nista and Leigh Sales are clearly upset. They’d be fine if Rudd was undermining Gillard; they’d be fine if Rudd went to ground, and rendered himself politically inert. Both fit the Abbott’s-inevitable-Gillard’s-doomed Narrative. Because he’s done neither, they play word games with him: do you rule out … are you leaving the door open for …

    We see the same behaviour from Gillard haters here: hundreds of comments yesterday and Thursday night all trying to second guess the true motivations of the Member for Griffith. He’s coming back! He’s challenging! He’s doing this, doing that.

    Like the Gillard-hating press gallery, they can’t just accept that perhaps, as Elder suggests, R*dd has learned that opposition within government is a very lonely place to be. Esp if your only company are idiots like Joel Fitzgibbon, or petulant has-beens like Kim Carr and Mar’n.]

    Do the ALP people who want Gillard replaced necessarily need to be “Gillard haters”? Perhaps they are more along the lines of “Being in opposition for a long, long time haters”?

  4. Nemspy..You advise ME to mingle more, then deliver your prognosis from the cloistered world of academia!….Sure, I agree with some of your “individulist perception”…and yours is indeed a view from your “one window”.

    Yes, a lot of workers did better under Howard…particularly those “workers” who saw an opportunity to suddenly use the “workchoices” wide-ranging employment opportunities to become first-time employers of youth labour!
    Some “aspirant tradies” wgho never before would risk the cost of “fair-work” employment saw the advantage of “contract employment”..particularly when the contract was in their favour…hence you are correct w/ “Blue-collar worker does good”.
    “A hustler is a hustler is a hustler…”

  5. Confessions, re the Elder piece you quoted. I would be interested in your analysis of what he is really saying. To me, today, 8 June 2013, with the polls stuck at 45-55 (at best), the Elder piece is about some kind of Liberal symbolism – ie the need to beat Rudd because they cannot accept Labor legitimacy. Is that how you read it?

    In my view, the 10% who will decide the next election couldn’t give a rats arse about that symbolism.

    It also hints that the Libs are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of facing Rudd rather than Gillard. Why would that be? Abbott leads Gillard as PPM. While Gillard may be respected, she is not liked in the wider electorate. In fact it is interesting that inside the ALP Gillard is liked more than Rudd. Yet outside the party, the obverse seems to be true.

    So the question is, should ALP heed the advice of people like Elder; or should they listen to what the polling says? If you believe the polling (and my gut tells me this) Rudd is more electorally popular than either Gillard or Abbott.

    What do you think?

  6. The LNP and supporters have a problem.

    We all know because the man himself has told us. Tony Abbott is a serial liar. You cannot believe a word he says.

    We now know you cannot believe what he puts his signature to.

    The only reason Abbott survives is the MSM campaigns on his behalf.

    No other politician admitting such things would remain in parliament let alone be in the running to be PM.

    That is the truth for all of you that doubt the media is campaigning.

  7. [ muttleymcgee
    Posted Saturday, June 8, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    A teacher, nemspy? Who can’t count.

    If you have a look at many of the job applicants and their education level I now understand why they can’t either.

    “I thought Rudd was dead and buried”

    What does a two to one hiding tell you? 71 to 31?]

    It tells me that not all of Rudd’s supporters in the caucus have asked him to campaign for them.

    What does 58/42 tell you? 😉

  8. Kirnir, Keneally, Bligh, Gillard, Giddings- spectacular thrashings, predicted many months out. Just not capable of learning anything really, and the beat goes on

  9. “R*dd has learned that opposition within government is a very lonely place to be. Esp if your only company are idiots like Joel Fitzgibbon, or petulant has-beens like Kim Carr and Mar’n.”

    ‘fess, I hear you but he said it himself – “A leopard doesn’t change his spots”

    If Rudd continues in this new cooperative manner I’m prepared to give him credence but his longtime track record gives reason for doubt …

    I haven’t forgotten his leaking in 2010, nor will I for a while yet.

  10. GG

    Indeed – and (for some reason) drawing crowds and adulation seems to end in counter intuitive results.

    Hewson was mobbed wherever he went. He lost.

    Keating was mobbed by school children. He lost.

    Howard was mobbed by school children. He lost.

    Having a sandwich thrown at you by school children might, by this metric, be a good sign!

  11. “What does 58/42 tell you?”

    That a NEWS poll for NEWS Ltd was released for Murdoch’s arrival in Australia after his flight from the UK where his minions face the music in Court. If you look at all of the polls you’ll see that the NEWS poll was the odd one out.

    NEWS Ltd. Purveyors of bullshit to the Nation.

    Since 1915

  12. The Rudd thing is one of those classic ‘no win’ situations.

    People demand Rudd rule out contesting for the leadership. He does. People say he’s lying.

    People insist that Rudd should be used to campaign more, and that this will show that Labor is united. He gets used to campaign and this is painted as a sign of instability.

    People demand that the PM and Rudd express mutual respect and a mutual determination to win the next election. They do, and it’s a sign that the PM is so afraid of losing she’s turning to Rudd.

    I don’t mind these demands being made; I do mind the spinning after they’re been met.

  13. Nempsy

    “What does 58/42 mean” It means Murdoch is in town

    Muttleymcgee 8

    “I’m a bit disturbed by this – First, apart from a NEWSpoll right after Murdoch arrived in Australia the polls have been consistent at 55 – 45 with the MSM favouring Rabbott.”

    History repeats: Newspoll was 52/48 between March 8 – 10, 2013 and then blew out to 58/42 a fortnight later – which also coincided with a 2 week Murdoch visit to Australia. By sheer coincidence, this was about the same time as the Rudd non-challenge on March 21.

  14. Nathan Rees just put it well from lessons learnt in NSW.

    Leadership change is instability. He thinks Rudd should not have been dumped. However now he thinks there should be no leadership change even back to Rudd.

    Why? It institutionalises instability to have continual leadership changes.

    So take from someone at the coalface. No leadership change it only helps the LNP.

  15. Lynchpin:

    I thought the blog post was pretty clear as to why the Liberals would prefer to face off R*dd than Gillard.

    They’ve never a) established a post Howard life, or b) really accepted their reasons for defeat in 2007.

    As to what I think, I have been clear right from the start: changing leaders (YET AGAIN!!!) looks flaky, uncertain, like the party has no legitimacy or authority, even more so when your party is in govt.

  16. David M

    Which also coincides with an avalanche of bullshit about how Labor has no hope, will be beaten in a landslide, and so on.

    Without a shred of real evidence, apart from their own poll, of course!

    NEWS Ltd. Purveyors of bullshit to the Nation.

    Since 1915

  17. Zoomster

    You show your ignorance

    I assume you mean Kate Jones in Ashgrove.

    Rudd was a HUGE assett to her and until he lost the Februarty ballot was working hard for her.

    Do you recall the polls when she was ahead??? Rudd was very much in the picture then.

    In case you are not aware of ACTUAL events
    1. Rudd lost the ballot. There was a detectible but shift in sentiment that weekend (I WAS on the phones).

    2.The next week the whole “who will be premier” Cando might lose campaign started. Kate KNEW that this was a loser strategy for her because it went against her keep Kate but still get LNP approach but presumably ALP HO decided that at the last post it was worth the risk
    3. The whole get Newman’s family campaign blew up (stupid ALP HO, idiotic idea) but at that point ALL was lost for Kate. Could tell it on the phoes. Sharp and clear as hell.

    So please do NOT show you ignorance. Rudd was helping greatly until he was routed.

    By he by that rout did Bligh great damage as Rudd has been helping her greatly too. Is suspect (not sure) but with the destruction of Rudd ALP HO felt they had no alternative than the jhigh risk personal attack strategy which proved disastrous.

    Your little mates in Canberra probably cost Qld 5-10 state seats. Hope you are happy.

  18. yes but the difference is guytaur is this is Hollywood, hero gets slung out, spends time in doldrums, justice prevails and hero returns…that is all people see, not policy, not caucus….just the movies in real life!

  19. Guytaur

    Rees is 100% correct. Only the Lib posters and the pro-Rudd (supposedly ALP) posters who want another leadership change

  20. [Super Tony
    He can stop the boats like no other
    He can give us surpluses with lower taxes
    He can pay off debt and keep compensation
    He can lower interest rates and cheapen power
    He can sack people yet create employment
    He can stop climate change without using the market
    He can fix manufacturing by cutting assistance
    He can create road and rail without funding
    He can even build a better NBN with obsolete copper
    He can be everything to all men (especially women)
    Trouble is, he lies like a pig in shit…
    All he WILL do is bring on recession.]

  21. ‘No other politician admitting such things would remain in parliament let alone be in the running to be PM.’

    So why does the ALP seem incapable of making anything of it politically to their advantage?

    Consider for a moment what the killers in the coalition would have done with it if the admission had been made by Gillard.

  22. ‘Super Tony
    He can stop the boats like no other
    He can give us surpluses with lower taxes
    He can pay off debt and keep compensation
    He can lower interest rates and cheapen power
    He can sack people yet create employment
    He can stop climate change without using the market
    He can fix manufacturing by cutting assistance
    He can create road and rail without funding
    He can even build a better NBN with obsolete copper
    He can be everything to all men (especially women)
    Trouble is, he lies like a pig in shit…
    All he WILL do is bring on recession

    Looks like a killer political ad script.
    Of course the ALP wouldn’t use it.
    It’d work.
    And besides they wouldn’t want to hurt anyone’s feewings.

  23. [Consider for a moment what the killers in the coalition would have done with it if the admission had been made by Gillard.]

    Because the media would faithfully report their every word, whereas similar attacks from Labor go unreported.

  24. Rosemainly less:

    It has nothing to do with hurt feelings!

    NOTHING that the ALP wants publicised gets out.

    Haven’t you noticed?

    The MSM. Purveyors of bullshit to the Nation.

  25. ‘Rees is 100% correct. Only the Lib posters and the pro-Rudd (supposedly ALP) posters who want another leadership change’

    Pro-Rudd = supposedly ALP
    Pro Gillard = supposedly coalition?

    Hard to read it any other way.
    I suppose we’ll find out soon enough.

    Put me down as an Abbott hater.
    I’m agnostic when it comes to who leads the ALP just as long as the ALP stays in government.

  26. [Of course the ALP wouldn’t use it.
    It’d work.]

    I’m using it and I’m here to serve… from little things etc. 🙂

  27. ‘As to what I think, I have been clear right from the start: changing leaders (YET AGAIN!!!) looks flaky, uncertain, like the party has no legitimacy or authority, even more so when your party is in govt.’

    Not necessarily.
    If the change was back to Rudd many people would view it as the natural order restored and Joolya getting her just desserts.
    I’m just sayin’ is all.
    A cange to Shorten would look flaky and desperate.

  28. Rosemour or Less. I am with you. Personally I prefer Julia; but if Rudd could win or save more of the furniture (if that’s where we are headed) then I am a pragmatist. A change back to Rudd is not the same thing as the NSW Disease. I agree, a change to a third leader would be more easily characterised as that – flaky and uncertain.

  29. Zoomster 66

    Well said. Those who have tied their hopes to Gillard and the Dumb Right naturally are looking for someone to blame at this point. It will not change the outcome.

  30. Rosemour

    I agree. Rudd can be the ALP salesman to take advantage of his famous “cut through” and “popularity with the people”…..and Gillard remains leader.

  31. What is it with so-called “ALP voters” that they continue to deny reality ?
    Love him or loath him, Rudd cuts through like no other Pollie in this Country, ALP or LNP.
    As I said last nite, not even Gary Abblett Jnr could have gotten that reception down at Corio yesterday.
    If you really want to win the Election (or at least try to) then why not go back to Rudd.
    Rudd V Abbott ?
    Well, it’s sorta like Geelong Vs Melboune, rather than the Blackburn Amateurs V Melbourne contest that we are witnessing at the moment.

  32. The A team…(Rudd and Turnbull) continue to impress with respectful banter and communication while the B team (gillard and abbott) fight for the right to lead the country.
    It really is bizzarro world we are in.

  33. Yesiree Bob

    You are spot on! You must though take into account that some on here hate Rudd with a passion.

    Bugger who could win that is irrelevant!

    Confessions can’t even bring herself to spell his name.

    Small minds ……

  34. two bobs worth@97


    Yesiree Bob

    You are spot on! You must though take into account that some on here hate Rudd with a passion.

    Bugger who could win that is irrelevant!

    Confessions can’t even bring herself to spell his name.

    Small minds ……

    37 years of following the Richmond football club has taught me the folly of letting petty ego’s get in the way of wining

  35. Yesiree Bob

    [37 years of following the Richmond football club has taught me the folly of letting petty ego’s get in the way of wining]

    Touche’

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