Seat of the week: Watson

The inner suburban seat of Watson is on the long list of Sydney seats where Labor is considered in danger of a once unthinkable defeat – potentially cutting short the career of one of the government’s senior figures.

Watson covers inner suburban territory roughly 15 kilometres south-west of central Sydney, from Strathfield and Burwood Heights at the city end to Greenacre and Lakemba further afield. The electorate was called St George from its creation in 1949 until 1993, reflecting the unofficial name of the Hurstville, Rockdale and Kogarah area of Sydney which it formerly encompassed. Watson was drawn further away from its traditional base when the redistribution before the 2010 election abolished its northern neighbour Lowe, from which it absorbed southern Strathfield and Burwood Heights. It also gained Greenacre, Mount Lewis and part of Punchbowl to the west, which were formerly in Banks, while in the south it lost Earlwood and Kingsgrove to Barton and Hurstville to Banks. This left only the voters in the City of Canterbury, accounting for barely half the total, to carry over to the newly redrawn seat. The affected areas were a mixed bag electorally, the changes serving to reduce the Labor margin by 1.9%.

The electorate of St George was for much of its history a classically marginal middle suburban seat, frequently changing hands until Whitlam government minister Bill Morrison recovered it for Labor in 1980 after being unseated in 1975 (the unsuccessful candidate in the intervening 1977 election was Whitlam’s son Antony, who had served in the previous term as member for Grayndler). Morrison was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Dubois, who retired when Watson was created in 1993 as part of a rearrangement that abolished St George and the Bondi-area electorate of Phillip. Labor accommodated Phillip MP Jeannette McHugh in Grayndler, while Right faction heavyweight Leo McLeay moved from Grayndler to Watson. Meanwhile, Labor’s grip tightened thanks to demographic change which has left Watson with the highest proportion of non-English speakers (72.8%) of any electorate in the country, most notably through the concentration of Lebanese at Lakemba and Chinese and Koreans at Campsie. However, the trend to Labor sharply reversed amid a Sydney-wide backlash at the 2010 election, which reduced Labor’s 18.2% margin by exactly half.

Watson has been held since McLeay’s retirement in 2004 by Tony Burke, who had entered politics the previous year as a member of the state upper house. McLeay had long hoped that his son Paul would assume the seat upon his retirement, but the strength of support for Burke within the Right compelled him to abandon the idea. Paul McLeay was instead accommodated in the state seat of Heathcote, which he held from 2003 until he joined the Labor casualty list at the 2011 state election. Burke meanwhile won swift promotion to the shadow ministry in 2005, going on to serve in cabinet as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister in the Rudd-Gillard government’s first term and as Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities Minister (further gaining arts in March 2013) in its second. Burke has been a resolute supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership, and spoke publicly of the “chaos” of Kevin Rudd’s prime ministership when he launched his unsuccessful challenged in February 2012.

The Liberals have preselected Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to national attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006. Delezio ran in Banks at the 2010 election, picking up an 8.9% swing against Labor’s Daryl Melham, and unsuccessfully sought preselection there again for the coming election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,840 comments on “Seat of the week: Watson”

Comments Page 5 of 77
1 … 4 5 6 … 77

  2. guytaur@198


    YB

    Good try. See twitter and FB.

    Most people don’t tweet, and when they do go onto facebook, the last thing on their mind is politics.
    What they will do though, is to get onto ninemsn, or news.com, or theage.com.au etc to get their news that way.
    Then. after work, they’ll settle down to the box and watch the channel 7 news.

  3. yb

    Now you are arguing twitter does not matter.

    Even the news services take twitter seriously. Just see how many times they quote twitter. Its not just on QandA.

  6. guytaur@203


    yb

    Now you are arguing twitter does not matter.

    Even the news services take twitter seriously. Just see how many times they quote twitter. Its not just on QandA.

    It doesn’t. Seriously, most people want to get their news in a passive way, ie the TV, the radio, newpapers. seeking out tweets from like minded is too much of an effort for most people.

  8. “@InsidersABC: On #insiders tomorrow @Nick_Xenophon joins us, and panel @lenoretaylor @PhillipCoorey @markgkenny dissect another strange week in Canberra”

  9. Good grief, Bob Carr switching to the lower house to save the ALP?

    Now I really have heard everything!!

    😆

    As briefly pointed out, changing leaders (YET AGAIN!!!!) is simply not an option unless the party wants to look completely desperate and out of control.

  10. [“@InsidersABC: On #insiders tomorrow @Nick_Xenophon joins us, and panel @lenoretaylor @PhillipCoorey @markgkenny dissect another strange week in Canberra”]

    *yawn*

    people still watch this crap? I bet it’s still the same pap they were saying three years ago…

  11. Guytaur

    Why can’t Labor campaign against Murdoch and old media?

    People should be told they are a threat to our democracy and they want the Coalition to win purely for their own selfish interests – such as acquiring the NBN 😎

  12. “@SwannyDPM: Wrong ‏@rupertmurdoch – Australian exports on the up, business investment near record highs, low unemployment #ecofacts”

  13. Centre

    I still think Conroy should have pursued media regulation. Tougher ones that Windsor and the Greens wanted.

    However we saw what happened.

  15. 142
    Toorak Toff

    Don’t know how well that would work, for two reasons. Bob Carr is tainted (at least by association) with the rancid NSW Labor machine, which will probably limit the amount of support he can recover for federal Labor, and will certainly give the opposition a line of attack against him. But also because it just looks like more desperate leadership musical chairs (another NSW Labor special), which is not a good look either, and would effectively be an admission of defeat.

    Now might be a good time for Gillard to get a disease that is non-fatal and curable, but serious enough to genuinely require her to step down.

    Don’t know who would be the best replacement. Preferably not one of the next generation of Labor leaders. No point in wasting them on this election. But the options are very limited.

  16. TBW,

    I don’t smoke.

    But, I always count my blessings when I realise that poisonous and vicious old whingers like you are no longer a part of the ALP.

    Please, don’t come back!

  19. YB

    Best example of how you are wrong. See the Obama campaign.

    Labor is going to emulate. So Labor strategists think you are wrong too.

  20. Centre:

    I’m not convinced all is lost, and am not giving up.

    At the end of the day voters have a choice between more of what they know versus an alternative which is largely unknown and finding the sand shifting around it all the time.

  21. guytaur@219


    YB

    Best example of how you are wrong. See the Obama campaign.

    Labor is going to emulate. So Labor strategists think you are wrong too.

    Yeah ? well good luck with that one.

  22. YB, these days being a luddite means not using fashionable online applications such as The Cloud, social media, etc.

    PS. I’m a luddite. Die facebook! 😀

  23. Reluctant to be unable to provide a link to Bob Ellis’s latest Table Talk piece – it contains some quite serious allegations about Tony Abbott, which if true, would cause him to be unfit for public office.

    But hey, we all know Bob has a record here.

  26. Any ‘bad’ stories about Abbott coming out now are just going to look desperate (even if true) — they should have dealt with that at the last election or at least a couple of years ago…

  27. YB

    Did you call News Wire services superficial? That is how media organisations view twitter. The new Wire service.

  30. sprocket_@223


    Reluctant to be unable to provide a link to Bob Ellis’s latest Table Talk piece – it contains some quite serious allegations about Tony Abbott, which if true, would cause him to be unfit for public office.

    But hey, we all know Bob has a record here.

    Yes, it was interesting reading.
    Not much truth to it though, I suspect.

  31. guytaur@227


    YB

    Did you call News Wire services superficial? That is how media organisations view twitter. The new Wire service.

    Slightly different to twitter or facebook, I would have thought.
    Oh and in the light of the new allegations of NASA net spying, there is a reason why I never use Internet Explorer, you know.

  32. [A GROWING number of the Australians are using social networks wherever they can: workplaces, schools, bedrooms, and even the toilet cubicle.

    A new study of Australian internet users found more than three in five now use social media, with almost half of users logging on daily and some more than five times a day.

    Australian Facebook users are spending more than seven hours on the site every week, and the smartphone is now the most popular way to access social networks, taking over from the laptop computer.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/technology/sensis-study-shows-social-media-is-reaching-into-every-aspect-of-australian-lives/story-e6frfro0-1226647077558#ixzz2VaxhXT3p

    This study estimates that around half the Australian population use Facebook:
    http://www.adcorp.com.au/Social-Media-Statistics-January-2013-Aust-NZ

  33. YB

    Go read up on twitter impacts. Studies have been done. University studies on the impact of twitter.

    However its as I have said. Just look at how many sites mention tweet this. How many say you can sign on with twitter here. etc etc.

    You may not like it but the twitter user base is quantifiable. It is no mistake that all the media sites and all the large corporations cater to twittter users.

  34. guytaur
    [Abetz on 24 whinging that antibullying and union entry laws got through the HOR.]

    Yee-hah! Abetz is an unbelievable fool.

  35. [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1h
    Just got polled on voting intentions under Gillard/Shorten/Rudd as PM scenarios. In Swans seat of Lilley, using party and candidate names]

    More fun and games from pollsters and media outlets.

  38. My observations of twitter –

    Conservatives rarely get large numbers of retweets. Lefties usually hold the day’s top tweets. Not ALP tweeters, usually wikileaks supporters. The ALP do get more retweets than conservatives and have a marginally greater presence in the day’s top tweets.

    When Rudd was trending, there weren’t many tweets critical of him. The usual suspects tweeted predictably, but these usual suspects are rarely retweeted.

    It is the crowd that hold the power on twitter, not the professional spinners and their lackies, much to their chagrin.

    Twitter is a great way of browsing a wide variety of news from a huge array of sources. You will miss the least if you watch twitter. Everyone on twitter knew about the Australian entertainer being questioned for sex offenses. Twitter is undoubtedly web gossip central.

    So with twitter being arguably left dominated, most tweets towards the PM are not flattering. Those that are supportive of her would be unlikely to change their vote if there were a change of leader. They would switch to the Greens rather than vote for Abbott.

    The PM’s supporters do not need to be cajoled at all, but clearly, there are too few of them to win the election. There is also nothing that will convince the PM’s detractors to vote for her.

    What was sadly funny was her supporters here thinking that the budget was going to lift these dire polls. So delusional to think that a budget will shift the numbers measurably. A bad one might, but a good one is expected but ignored.

  39. [lizzie
    Posted Saturday, June 8, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
    Wonder why the media pushing Shorten as alternate?    ]

    I would be amazed if Shorten was prepared to take the job at this stage, even if it became vacant. For him, unlike Rudd, it would look like nothing more than a poisoned chalice.

  40. Radguy

    Actually Labor got a slight and I mean slight increase in polls after the budget. I and I expect most expected a drop. Budget bounce is a media confection

  41. radguy

    I don’t think one person can use their observations of twitter to determine what’s going on – just as one can’t use one’s group of friends, and for the same reason – we tend to weed out those who tweet things we don’t like.

    My twitter stream is overwhelmingly supportive of Julia Gillard and very anti Ruddstoration. That’s because I argued against Rudd’s return in Feb 2012, and some Ruddadorers either blocked me or stopped following me. (And I stopped following Rudd).

    So if I used my twitter stream as a guide, I would conclude that the vast majority of people on twitter adore JG and that Labor will win the next election at a canter.

    But I know that neither of those things are necessarily true.

  42. “Wonder why the media pushing Shorten as alternate?”

    Two reasons:

    1. Anything to stir shit

    2. Rabbott and Credlin are terrified of Rabbott and JG one on one in a debate.

    Watch QT – JG will slaughter him.

  44. Radguy

    [So with twitter being arguably left dominated, most tweets towards the PM are not flattering.]

    It depends whom you follow. What you seem to be saying is that the people whom you follow are Wikileaks supporters who do not like the PM.

  45. [Abetz on 24 whinging that antibullying and union entry laws got through the HOR.]

    Maybe he should start with his own party, they voted for it in the Reps.

  48. Zoomster, do you really think that I would be stupid enough to claim that the people I follow are an indication of public sentiment?

    I follow hashtags. Those you block still appear in hashtag conversations.

    Your point is rather il-informed.

    I would not go as far as saying that twitter represents the community broadly, but I would say it is fairly representative of Internet users.

    Those that don’t use social media are a lost cause for the ALP.

  49. Radguy

    The other observation about twitter is that the bypassing of the OldMedia does allow the progressive view to be reinforced. So rather than being fed memes, or having memes censored or ignored, a well constructed twitter feed can replace nearly fully the MSM.

    For example my twitter feed contains journalists, politicians, credible news sources like the NYTimes, JakartaPost and The Guardian, along with all the progressive bloggers and as many of the commenters here as I can find. I follow just under 600 feeds.

    On the flip side, over about 2 years I have attracted 888 followers, who get to read my prosecution of progressive causes, and bagging of the forces of Darkness led by Murdoch. And I will often live tweet Question Time, #qanda, #insiders and press conferences. A real time progressive spin for those who want it.

    As to avoid the “circle jerk” risk so evident in media such as The Australian, I also follow a number of right wing-nuts like IPA shills, Chris Kenny and Miranda Devine, climate science deniers, 2GB etc to provide some balance, and to know what the MSM are feeding the sheep with.

    The one thing missing is a replacement for radio, where an app which would read out your twitter feed for you – sure to be one soon.

  50. Lizzie, there are actually four options to look at in twitter – those you follow, those who mention you, hastags and your own searches and lists etc in your personal profile.

    You really think I would judge public sentiment from the people I follow?

    Utterly ridiculous.

    Those I follow tell me what’s going on with the issues I find important.

    So, let’s talk about the auspol hashtag shall we?

Comments Page 5 of 77
1 … 4 5 6 … 77

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *