BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition

This week’s Newspoll shocker has blown away the mild Labor recovery the BludgerTrack poll aggregate thought it was detecting after the budget.

A shift to Labor over the previous three weeks has been blown away and then some in the latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has the Coalition up 1.5% on two-party preferred and gouges a further nine from Labor’s already feeble showing on the national seat projection (three seats from New South Wales plus one from each other state plus the combined territories result). The damage was done entirely by this week’s 58-42 Newspoll result, which is visible as the most recent outlier in the charts on the sidebar. The results from weekly pollsters Essential Research and Morgan were both consistent with a 55-45 trend that’s showed no real sign of budging since February. Another feature of the result is that the Greens have fallen to their lowest ebb this term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,989 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.6-44.4 to Coalition”

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  1. [William Bowe
    Posted Friday, June 7, 2013 at 5:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Morgan has a rather unilluminating phone poll on potential support for the KAP, PUP and Wikileaks party.]

    Imagine the federal voting intentions will be available tomorrow then?

    If they have gone to the trouble of doing a phone poll just to ask “Who would you consider voting for?”, then Morgan is more stupid than I had previously thought.

  2. Watching the Channel 10 news tonite, it’s clear that a return to Rudd would translate to more votes.
    The punters love the Bloke

  3. Interesting to hear a caller to 2GB this afternoon to Ben Fordham’s show say that Rudd has effiminate mannerisms “like a poufter”.

    Fordham said he didn’t think Rudd was homosexual, but that he was more like a “poonce”.

    Lovely types on 2GB.

  4. poroti

    [What hyperlink in 1706 ? I see nothing]

    That’s encouraging – I can see it though so I’ll run a complete scan regardless

  5. two bob’s worth@1717


    Yesiree Bob

    Which many of us have stated from the time of the coup!

    Rudd had em eating out of their hands, not even the return of Gary Ablett Jnr could generate the same amount of hysteria that Rudd did in Corio this afternoon.

  6. [zoidlord
    Posted Friday, June 7, 2013 at 6:04 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1711

    Why would you question the wording, if your party is in the lead ?]

    They have asked who would you “consider” voting for, not who do you “intend” to vote for in the election.

    I would consider voting for Pauline Hanson, then about 1 microsecond later I will decide against it.

    The question is meaningless.

  7. Bushfire Bill

    In 2GB land people with edjamacation are very suspect. Liberal gay commie Marxist muzzo bastards the lot of them. The common sense of slack jawed yokels being much preferred.

  8. @Mod Lib/1722

    So you know how others on PB feel when odd questions appear on Polling results.

    @Yesiree Bob/1724

    Can’t give more definite answer?

    That’s a wide birth right there.

  9. Reid:
    In 1900 Reid gave a 2 hour speech in Sydney Town Hall on federation. At the end it was still inclear whether he was for it or against and he was subsequently called ‘yes no Reid’
    Reid was a massive man, well over 20 stones. Towards the end of the speech an interjector referring to Reid’s gut said “what are you calling the baby, George?”
    He replied ” if it was a boy I would call it George, if it was a girl, I would call it Victoria BUT as it is all piss and wind I am going to call it after you”

    It is hard to imagine a modern politician saying that.

  10. Went to a conference in Brisbane yesterday & today – opened by Qld Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie. Had no idea he’s only 31. Didn’t reflect deep understanding of the requirements of his portfolio.

  11. Oakeshott Country

    [It is hard to imagine a modern politician saying that.]
    It’s also hard to imagine a “modern” audience member asking that. That said it was a ripper answer 🙂

  12. [ It is well-known that telephone polls produce a higher result for the party ‘expected to win’ Government – now the Coalition!]

    Onya Gary. 😛

  13. @Yesiree Bob/1738

    Whens next sitting ? lol I don’t keep up with the Parliament as much you guys do.

    I do however, want to see Coalition Party back where they belong for another term.

  14. OPT 1681

    Thank you for your excellent explanation – you have a much higher tolerance for stupidity than I have!

  15. [Didn’t reflect deep understanding of the requirements of his portfolio.]

    Mark McArdle thinks the same thing, how Bleijie got the job is a mystery to more senior lawyers in the LNP.

  16. Dear oh dear

    Is it better to have our arsehole rather than their arsehole that would appear to be the current question

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