A shift to Labor over the previous three weeks has been blown away and then some in the latest BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has the Coalition up 1.5% on two-party preferred and gouges a further nine from Labor’s already feeble showing on the national seat projection (three seats from New South Wales plus one from each other state plus the combined territories result). The damage was done entirely by this week’s 58-42 Newspoll result, which is visible as the most recent outlier in the charts on the sidebar. The results from weekly pollsters Essential Research and Morgan were both consistent with a 55-45 trend that’s showed no real sign of budging since February. Another feature of the result is that the Greens have fallen to their lowest ebb this term.
Nearly 30 mins. into the Drum & no mention of convicted jihadist terrorist.
zoidlord
[Whens next sitting ? lol I don’t keep up with the Parliament as much you guys do.]
The week after next my guess is that if the transition takes place it will be on the last sitting day before the Parliament breaks up for the election.
[Zoidlord @1729, speculation on Channel 10 said during the next sitting of parliament.]
I am effin’ amazed at the gullibioity of some in the media and at ALL Rudd supporters and wingnuts here.
Will you people EVER learn?
Rudd is going nowhere. He’s finished as Labor leader.
If last time’s Chicken Little effort didn’t convince you the man’;s a preening show-pony, I don’t know what will.
Forget Rudd.
Kinkajou@1750
Our arseholes will always smell better then their arseholes.
ruawake
[, how Bleijie got the job is a mystery to more senior lawyers in the LNP.]
He is one of the more ,shall we say, “devout” types. So being young and pious he is a perfect cats paw for forces of the unenlightenment that Qld has abundant supplies of. Oh and not just Qld.
BB
Gullibility?
Has it ever occurred to you that you may be wrong?
Well if the change occurs at least we will be spared Rudd’s performance in QT. I am unsure if it was Rudd who was responsible for the poor showing in the 2010 parliament or that Harry Jenkins Jr was the most ineffectual speaker since Albert Cope.
The composition of a Rudd cabinet will be fascinating.
I’m all for youth in government but a fledgling suburban solicitor with a few years’ experience made A-G is rather extreme affirmative youth action.
Funny how 25% seems to keep coming up as people prepared to consider voting for another party.
The very funny thing is the 44% of Greens. 😆
2bob
Look at evidence. Caucus is same people. Each time a challenge has happened Rudd and spporters get less not more votes.
Take the man at his word nothing is going to change untl after the election at least. Do not fall for Pyne Bishop lines like the media have
[Funny how 25% seems to keep coming up as people prepared to consider voting for another party.
The very funny thing is the 44% of Greens. 😆 ]
Which poll and how are they distributed ru?
It is a mystery to me how rudd could form an office let alone a cabinet.
For the latter he might go whitlam barnard – the kevin and joel show.
Tom@1761 – I thin rua is referring to this:
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/wikileaks-katter-palmer-june7-201306070426?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan+Poll+20130607&utm_content=Morgan+Poll+20130607+CID_aba52ae977b3ddc1738c2e12006dbc40&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=Read%20full%20article
wow – long link
[BB
Gullibility?
Has it ever occurred to you that you may be wrong?]
After three years of constant leadershit, where Rudd was coming back on {insert precise date here} for sure, bang to rights, dead cert, no worries, definitely, because he {had the numbers|Gillard was about to resign for the good of the party|the factions had turned|the Independents were in despair|Shorten/Crean/Carr had swapped allegiences} as absolutely sworn to by utterly reliable {Labor insiders|ComCar drivers|journalists for The Australian|Fairfax man-love obsessives|Maxine McKew|anonymous Rudd Campers|talk down the pub}… after all that I think I have history on my side in saying definitely that Rudd is complete and utter history and always was.
Gillard has seen of half the press gallery, all of her internal detractors have lost their jobs (including Rudd), and there are 98 days to go to an election and about 50 or 60 until the campaign starts.
Yes, I am positive that I am not wrong.
[Which poll and how are they distributed ru?]
The latest Morgan on PUP, KAP and leaks.
@Yesiree Bob/1749
Cheers,
So two long weeks then?
bbp:
Yes, the ALP backbenchers must be looking at the throng hankering after Rudd today….look at the beaming faces and people eager to touch his hand.
Then they look at the polling and discussions about 35 to 45 seats.
So, lets go with Rudd? BUT, half our cabinet have said that he is nothing short of a psychopath and we would resign if he was leader.
What does one do?
[I am unsure if it was Rudd who was responsible for the poor showing in the 2010 parliament or that Harry Jenkins Jr was the most ineffectual speaker since Albert Cope.]
Both. Jenkins was just woeful, really, esp with the hung parliament.
R*dd was a waffler. Katter-esque in his inability to form succinct sentences.
guytaur
With great respect if you were looking down the tunnel of being no longer in your job what would you do.
Sit there and wait for it to happen or look to someone who may help keep you there?
That is politics 101.
He won’t have to break his word if he is drafted. He said he won’t challenge but that won’t need to be done.
Guytaur when you have been involved in ALP politics as long as I have I do not “fall for Pyne and Bishop lines like the media have”.
Go join the ALP and learn how it all works if you can find a branch with some members anymore.
http://www.fasterlouder.com.au/news/local/35294/Political-smackdown-Peter-Combe-vs-Tony-Abbott
[It’s on the cards that we’re very likely to have Tony Abbott, the man who refuses to be scrutinised by ANY serious media and a climate change denier, installed as Prime Minister in September. I’ve NEVER heard him utter the words ‘global warming’ and only once ‘climate change’. I’ve spoken to the executive producers of the ABC’s Lateline and 7.30 Report programmes and they say that he won’t appear on them. I’ve also spoken to his Canberra staff and been told he’s too busy!! Imagine if someone wanted to be the Prime Minister of Britain but refused to do ANY interviews on the BBC. He’d be a laughing stock. Well apply the same scenario to the ABC and any serious media and that’s Tony Abbott. Do we really want someone who’s unwilling and incapable of engaging in ANY serious, intelligent debate about Australia’s future, running the country. Whatever Julia’s faults, and she’s flawed like all of us, she’s at least serious. Tony is a very unfunny joke. I hope Australian voters wake from their slumber and start thinking before its too late.]
BB:
Well said.
guytaur
In fact numbers in caucus have remained at around 70/30 since the coup, which reflects the factional dominance of the Short-Con SDA cabal. The issue now is the increasing pressure from abysmal polling in the light of those dominant faction bosses’ continuing refusal to give up that dominance for a chance at the election. There is also more chance in this climate of the so-far-loyal caucus drones mutinying against Captain Julia Queeg in favour of a skipper who might save their lives.
[R*dd was a waffler. Katter-esque in his inability to form succinct sentences.]
Not enough three word slogans for your liking, eh?
:devil:
When Rudd states he is not a candidate for the leadership it is true.
Maybe others should follow his lead and campaign to win in Sept. He will be an asset in some electorates, let him get on with it.
The guessing what Kevin really means is a crap game. He will never have the numbers.
2bob
You have a poor view of Mr Rudd it seems. No taking hm on his word. Today he made comments ruling out the drafting option in the short term at least. Stop fantasising about a Rudd PM v Abbott @ 14/9. Not happening
BB
[Yes, I am positive that I am not wrong.]
I could have laid a bet on that being your response.
Your humility abounds!
BB – Maxine McKew wants labor to lose big time just to satisfy her own ego.
Self-Preservation is a very powerful motivator.
[Bushfire Bill
…..
Gillard has seen of half the press gallery, all of her internal detractors have lost their jobs (including Rudd), ….]
Half the ALP MPs might be about to lose their jobs because of her too.
Dont forget that bit….
[Self-Preservation is a very powerful motivator.]
Yep, but what has that got to do with elections?
Mod lib
The sanity has to be questioned of anyone wanting to replace julia gillard as labor leader. If anyone did put their hand up they would obviously be unhinged and unfit for thr the job.
guytaur
[You have a poor view of Mr Rudd it seems.]
And you say that why? You are totally wrong but more importantly the electorate apparently likes Rudd but let’s not worry about the voters they are irrelevant to our precious egos.
[POLICE have laid charges in connection with one of the largest leaks of law enforcement data in Victoria’s history.
Detectives arrested and charged a 38-year-old Melbourne man on Friday.
The man, who is not a police officer, is facing charges of perverting the course of justice and trafficking a commercial quality of amphetamine, a police spokeswoman said.]
But of course no police have been found, who actually leaked the material. What a load of tosh.
If Labor is headed for electoral wipe out then there is a certain serendipity about R*dd returning to the leadership to lead the party into opposition.
He is, after all, largely responsible for the state the party finds itself in today: riven with tension, bitterness and disunity. He should wear the blame for making it thus.
If rudd did come back he would be a three day wonder and after that no more than a bad joke and figure of fun.
[He should wear the blame for making it thus.]
Gillard faultless again?
Quite fascinating really…..
Btw, sad news about Anna Bligh.
Mod Lib – you have mastered the three word slogans.
Gillard faultless again?
Quite fascinating really…..
“What does one do?”
If One is ML One pisses off and repeatedly bashes One’s head against the wall in a futile attempt to instill intelligence and sense.
2bob
The man has been clear. Caucus has been clear. Labor is going with PMJG as leader. No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that.
Rant as much as you like about the voters. However they can only vote for their local candidate. The leader is up to caucus and that is the facts.
I’m quiet happy having Rudd back in the box seat again.
I’m not happy however, if this is just another rumerville.
Then I would like Every single media+who ever else suggested this rumor to be shot.
Yes, the ALP backbenchers must be looking at the throng hankering after Rudd today….look at the beaming faces and people eager to touch his hand.
From a historical view that is dangerous talk.
I wellremember the massive, enthused crowds for Whitlam in 75 and Lang famously had 150-200 K in a meeting in Moore Park 2 days before his oblivion.
People may be enthusiastic now (or not) but that dose not necessarily result in votes.
“In fact numbers in caucus have remained at around 70/30 since the coup, which reflects the factional dominance of the Short-Con SDA cabal.”
More accurately reflecting Rudd’s inability to manage and lead.
[Rant as much as you like about the voters. However they can only vote for their local candidate. The leader is up to caucus and that is the facts.]
It never fails to amaze me how few people actually understand this.
Mod Lib
[Not enough three word slogans for your liking, eh? :devil:]
Apparently good leadership is all about voice cadence these days!
Hard to screw up the voice cadence of only three words!
Do you think who the voter choses for their electorate is affected by who the caucus votes in as leader?
[@BushfireBill 6 Jun
“A scummy bunch of fools who publish every filthy little rumour” Brilliant comment on #auspol journalism from Leone. http://pbxmastragics.com/2013/06/04/tony-abbott-and-the-great-australian-witch-hunt/comment-page-7/#comment-59577 … ]
The comments by Aguirre, which follow further down, are very interesting in terms of Pyne’s confidence in a spill.
Earlier today there was a link to a site that analysed Tones body language when he and Talcum did the NBN thang. One of the things that was picked up was Tones apparent inability to pick up social cues. Interestingly that is one of the big probs for adult ADHD sufferers. Hmm flibberty jibbert too busy for details like reading stuff flitting from stunt to stunt . Things that make you go Hmm.
lizzie:
Yes I just saw that tweet.
[I think – and I’m not certain about this but just judging by comments made by Liberal MPs and others, and the way the media reportage has gone – that there was a deadline set to get rid of Gillard. I think it was last Monday. I think a plan may have been hatched earlier this year and even though it hasn’t gone to plan they’re still going through with it. I think there’s a nexus between the LNP, the media and a certain rump of the ALP, and has involved a bit of coordination. This is what I think it is:
1. It’s pretty obvious that both the LNP and the Murdoch media want Rudd back leading the ALP. The only conclusion that can be drawn from that is that Rudd is Murdoch-friendly for some reason. But it’s also pretty obvious that within the ALP he’s persona non grata as far as any leadership role is concerned.
2, Most of early 2013 was spent coordinating the Rudd leadership challenge. As we know, it was one of those secrets that everyone knew. The talk was designed to destabilise the Gillard leadership to the point where everyone would cross over for fear of their careers going down the gurgler. The timing was set for, I believe, May some time, giving Rudd a few weeks in the chair before the election was called.
3. I wondered about Crean’s role in all of this. I now think that he realised the way in which Gillard setting an election date re-set the narrative, and that May would be too late for a challenge. I’m not sure he got a lot of support, so he forced the issue off his own bat. This is part of a much bigger fight for the future direction of the ALP, and I think there is still quite a divide there. A lot of the old guard still want to fight the battles in the old way, but they’re heavily outnumbered by the new faces.
4. Substantially, the LNP have seconded the Rudd rump, and convinced them that they’re all fighting the same battle. If Gillard comes out of the next election with her credibility intact, that’s it for the ALP old guard. They’ll never find a way back. But if the old guard and the LNP work together to destroy everything Gillard stands for, they can all go back to the old way of doing things.
5. For some reason – I haven’t quite figured that out – this election needed to be an Abbott-Rudd battle. It may well be because the LNP have done so many shady things that having a forensic and capable opposition would present a massive danger to them, and Rudd may have given a few assurances that there will be no calls for inquiries etc. I don’t know. But I do know they want Gillard’s government not only defeated but discredited as well. And the Rudd rump want the same thing.
It’s just me thinking out loud, but it does appear that what’s at stake for the LNP goes beyond the election, anyway.]
http://pbxmastragics.com/2013/06/04/tony-abbott-and-the-great-australian-witch-hunt/comment-page-7/#comment-59585
[Whatever Julia’s faults, and she’s flawed like all of us, she’s at least serious. Tony is a very unfunny joke.]
He makes a very good point lizzie.
Julia has got a lot of legislation through that many have said she would not, highlights such as the plain packaging, NDIS, super reforms, carbon price, paid parental leave. And this in a knife edge parliament.
You have a look at the majority Howard had, the time he was in and the different economic circumstances and Julia shits all over him.
Have a look at Abbott in government and he was a do nothing minister in the style of costello the hammock dweller, lazy and uninterested.
This article typifies his whole approach continued on in opposition.
[Tony Abbott tried on Tuesday to distance himself from a 2001 decision taken by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations – for which he was then the Minister – to reject the fast-tracking of compensation for Telstra workers exposed to asbestos.
‘‘I’m just not going to comment on who said what to whom,’’ he said at a press conference in Queanbeyan, when asked about his knowledge of the decision. ‘‘You can always ask the department.’’]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-distances-himself-from-rejection-of-telstra-asbestos-compo-plan-20130603-2nm9y.html#ixzz2VWIWZho5
Just another matter which he he ignored same as the GFC vote when he decided to make love to a case of red wine and the BHP Billiton report he failed to read.
Whilst Julia has been implementing change and policies Abbott has been riding his bike, claiming his allowance and sprouting three word slogans. Not one scrap of definable policy from him.
You want a three word slogan for Abbott it is ‘missing in action’.