The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.
Some further polling nuggets:
• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.
• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.
• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.
But do Africans only work for $2 dollars a-day
Where did Gina get that comment from.
I consider myself somewhat pro business but the mining sector is one part of the economy that owes its existence to every Australian. It was gifted the product and it really should be paying a higher level of tax.
Maybe with the real business community paying less.
[1868
Compact Crank
Briefly – your private debt fixation is channeling John Quiggin.
If private debt was going to be the undoing of the Australian economy it wod have happened in the GFC.
It didn’t.]
I’ve never read John Quiggin.
That aside, the whole system nearly did come tumbling down in the GFC. If Rudd had not acted to support private incomes and demand (the stimulus) and then China had not come along with mega-stimulus, then the system most likely would have toppled over.
The banks have been busy paying off their short term wholesale loans ever since the GFC, and private savings have been re-built – both of which have been facilitated by the Commonwealth fiscal policy. Had the Commonwealth tried to achieve fiscal balance at the same time that private savings were increasing and private demand was contracting, there would certainly have been a recession, and chaos in both the labour and property markets.
Interestingly, there is data showing that the property market since 2006 has closely followed the terms of trade. When rapid private debt expansion slowed down the property market also ceased inflating before stabilising on support from rising in export incomes. As this income retreats, property is again weakening.
As to supply, of course, the supply side is a headache and a barrier to flexibility in the housing market. It should be reformed too. Stamp duty, land tax, land supply and planning policies should be reformed; and there should be far more investment in public transport networks, which add to the economic and social returns available from higher density urbanisation.
Ford workers should also get used to regular racial and sexual abuse to see whether the soft cocks cry.
CC
Have a look at the Ford Oz CEO talking to 7.30 about this.
He noted that hey had explicitly included European cost comparison in the explanation of the unviability of the Australian operations (at twice the Australian operation’s cost) because wages are comparable between Australia and Europe.
ie he was blaming lack of scale primarily.
That may be just him being politic. Many things come into these decisions. However, given Ford are not going to be receiving any favours from government of any persuasion, I don’t see why he would feel the need to spare this government’s feelings if he really thought wages and “inflexible IR” were the primary factor…
There are laws against bullying in the workplace.
@CC
The only way that she wouldn’t have said it is not not say it in the first place, don’t defend the rich CC.
A little pictorial comparison
@sarajade91
The PM Julia Gillard always demonstrates she has a natural warm,caring, empathy for others. TA is just a bad actor. pic.twitter.com/HFGKf8WbW6
er sorry that should have been European manufacturing being half the cost of Australian with similar wage levels.
Boerwar:
You are on fire today! Very entertaining. 🙂
It is just as well Mirabella told Graziano no potato and killed of the Ford plant. Because this will save Ford workers from working for $2 a day in buildings which collapse on top of them on a random basis.
It’s possible the girl was pissed off because her Collywobbles were getting beaten and expressed her anger in an inappropriate manner and she doesn’t really hate all non-whites in a discriminatory. In fact she might actually love non-white players as long as they play for Collingwood.
If PB is reflective of what is happening more generally then this has already been blown out of proportion.
Mirabella cares.
DavidWH
Valid point, what is said in the heat of the moment is one thing and should be treated differently than if someone has gone out and on purpose discriminated against someone on the grounds of race or faith.
Briefly
So have you liquidated all you property and shares and shifted out of the AUD in the face of the impending property and debt collapse in Australia?
Zoidy – whether she is rich or poor she deserves defending against false allegations. She never said she wants Australians to work for $2 an hour. Ever.
Anyway CC @ 1868, the LNP, should they be elected (a more and more doubtful proposition), will have to choose:
the economy, or
the deficit, and
overhauling the system
Their political strategy is to postpone everything until a second term. But they will not have the luxury of time, which has already expired.
They should declare their hand. What will they do?
Needless to say, they will do the same as they always do: absolutely nothing. The LNP do not have the stomach to reform the economy. They cannot even organise a tree-planting policy.
Goodes has said he’s moved on. The 13yo girl has apologised. Frankly I’m surprised people are still going on about the incident.
[1856
victoria
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 2:42 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
This video sums up what the liberal luvvies sound like. I promise you will be amused. 😀
http://www.viralviralvideos.com/2012/08/05/gaggle-of-turkeys-respond-to-turkey-call/%5D
Excellent, victoria…still drying my eyes
Fessy
PB is good for going on about something long after everyone else has moved on
The German government has so far launched economic stimulus plans worth up to 80 billion euros ($104.6 billion). These include incentives for new car buyers, as well as investment spending and tax cuts.
The government has also put aside 1.5 billion euros to fund a program which offers 2,500 euros to people who swap cars at least nine years old for new models.
Matthias Wissmann, head of Germany’s VDA automotive industry association, said the scrappage incentive could help maintain new-car sales at 3 million units in 2009, roughly the same figure as in 2008.
Comparison is very difficult. Hard to compete with these subsidies.
More instances of 13 and 14yo children behaving appallingly.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/17323896/teens-charged-after-bricks-thrown-at-homes/
What on earth is happening to kids these days?
Briefly
“should”?
The only thing they “should” do is comply with the law. The minimalist policy strategy is the absolutely correct one given the conduct of the ALP (GST raising and ABC selling lies) and the uncertainty of the budget position.
dwh
Et tu?
I have worked with indigenous people for nigh on four decades, and the amount of damage that racism has done, and does, to Indigenous people is simply incalcuable. Racism legitimated the theft of a continent. It underpinned the Stolen Generations. Etc, etc, etc.
I will step you through the basics.
If you use racist language, you are behaving in a racist manner. If you behave in a racist manner you are a racist. ‘ape’ is not random term. It was a deliberately racist term. I am a highly evolved human being. You are an ape. You are inferior. It is not just the pain. It is a message about power and about institutional relationships.
There is a very deep hate and contempt involved in being a racist. Basically racists talk and behave as if a fellow human being is a lesser being, contemptible, because they belong to a different race. If you stick a knife into someone’s body, it is hate. If you stick a knife into someone’s soul, it is hate.
And don’t forget the Catch 22: if they let this contempt and hatred get to them emotionally, they are contemptible for not being able to handle it.
[1914
Compact Crank
Briefly
So have you liquidated all you property and shares and shifted out of the AUD in the face of the impending property and debt collapse in Australia?]
Yup, and actively doing my best for the balance of trade withal.
AA – we could compete – the debts and deficits wouldn’t matter at all apparently.
BW
Clap.
mb:
People mustn’t have much to do today if they are trying to make political statements about last night’s incident. I notice the IPA are doing high dudgeon political correctness gone mad over the matter.
That says it all really.
1915
She merely implied it.
The heat of the moment is the moment of truth, not the moment of excuse.
If that is when you start talking like a racist, that is when the inner racist self is displayed.
Anger does not make you a racist for a moment. The racist constructs and beliefs are absorbed over time.
Victoria 1759
Makes a valid point, I know a person that in at work is always going on about PC things like anti-discrimination yet i once saw him at the footy and the language he used at one player was very difference.
Referring to one player as a monkey every time he went near the ball.
Briefly – the next Soros.
[1922
Compact Crank
Briefly
“should”?
The only thing they “should” do is comply with the law.]
😆
That would be a first in national politics…the LNP platform to consist of a promise not to break the law. Considering some of TA’s ideas, that might not be so easy for him to live up to.
Seriously, do the LNP have any economic policies of their own? Will they put their name on any policies at all, other than an irrational PPL figment?
Confessions – that’s high dungeon – just a bit of hyperbowl there.
BW
And of course the bird was a Raven rather than a common crow.
Boerwar
I disagree, a true racist or bigot is that all the time not just in the heat of the moment.
To be in an heated argument and call someone a bitch or bastard doesn’t mean you hate all women or men and it doesn’t man that you hate the person the comment is aimed at.
To be racist is to hate and discriminate whenever possible.
Oil sector loves high-tax Norway
Outrage over the federal government’s plans for a 40 per cent tax on resource profits has shaken Australian politics for the past two months. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and other big companies might be grateful they’re not in Norway, which taxes profits from its main natural resource, oil, at up to 78 per cent.
Tax experts say one reason the mining industry is fighting the super profits tax so ferociously is a concern Australia could trigger a worldwide move to introduce more resource rent taxes.
In Norway, which has had a resource rent tax since the early 1970s, the tax has hit company profits. But it hasn’t hurt investment, according to Norwegian government officials and oil companies.
“No, it’s definitely not too small a return,” says Roar Tessem, the chief executive of Spring Energy, interviewed by telephone from his office in Oslo. “Obviously we would like to have a lower tax rate. But the upside is that we know the Norwegian continental shelf. We think that [the system] is working very well. We see that the potential here is quite high.”
The Norwegian petroleum tax is an example of how profits-based resources taxes, even very high ones, don’t necessarily discourage investment. If the taxes are well designed they can generate big returns for taxpayers and allow resource companies to make enough profit to cover their costs of capital, many economists say.
CC – high dudgeon perhaps?
Soros…hardly, CC. I am just a humble exporter, making a modest living adding value to our endowment of renewable natural resources… resource supplies that, worryingly, are threatened by climate change.
I’m not worried about myself. I’m worried about the country – about all those who will lose if the LNP either do what they usually do (nothing at all), or do what they have suggested they would like to do (which is trash the budget).
1901
mexicanbeemer
[I consider myself somewhat pro business but the mining sector is one part of the economy that owes its existence to every Australian. It was gifted the product and it really should be paying a higher level of tax.]
A much higher level. They are getting one of the sweetheart deals of all time out of us.
Compact Crank:
[Bb @1773 I have always predicted the Gillard Government would run full term — the fact that it has is not a measure of Gillard’s success.]
If you’re still here, sorry for the delay in replying. Lunch with friends intervened.
If achieving, staying in and using office to get your political program through, against the odds is NOT a measure of political “success”, pray tell, what is?
And before you say “leading in the polls” is the measure of success… what legislation has a healthy lead in the polls enabled Abbott to pass? What lives has it helped? What programs has it funded? How many seats on the Security Council of the United Nations did it win?
Abbott, apart from the first few months, has had better numbers in the House than Gillard. He has had a supportive (to say the least) media. He has only needed to convince three conservative independents they made a mistake, but has been unable to do so. Not to mention the flaky flip-flopper from Hobart.
He has had the major state governments on side, scandals aplenty, rumours, innuendos, the power to stop parliament with a simple Suspension of Standing Orders motion, the opportunity (used on thousands of occasions) to stop answers to questions in their tracks, fair and reasonable Speakers who show little favour to the government, presence on committees that woud enable him to infouence events, thousands on the lawns of parliament calling for the death of the government… yet he has achieved nothing of any importance.
He has only won polls, run by the media, spruiked by the media, influenced by the media and indeed owned by the media.
So tell me, CC, just what IS the measure of political success?
Polls?
Or performance?
No, I definately meant high dudgeon.
Mexicanbeemer, here is why your argument doesn’t work. I’ve substituted just two terms of your argument with two other terms. See if you can spot them:
——
I disagree, a true murderer or rapist is that all the time not just in the heat of the moment.
To be in a heated argument and murder or rape someone doesn’t mean you hate all women or men and it doesn’t mean that you hate the person the murder or rape is aimed at.
To be a murderer or rapist is to murder and rape whenever possible.
——
BB @ 1940…exactly right
mb:
I disagree. I think bigots, homophobes and misoygnists and racists know they have to conceal their true selves.
Look at Abbott who is hiding his real persona behind a truck load of spak-filler, white eyeliner, pastel-coloured ties and his daughters.
Confessions – do you need me to show you the videos of the PM getting her high dungeon on with a little bit of hyperbowl?
[DAILY TERROR @johnnybridge2 5m
Tony Abbott’s policy stuff up and his cover up. http://buff.ly/13Rn2LL ]
From Channel 7 news – not today.
Al Dente
That is not the same
To be found guilty of murder you need to have wanted to murder the person and proven to have carried out the act.
Rape is similar except in cases that don’t lead to murder therefore the victim is still alive and has had the opportunity to verbally or non-verbally refused consent.
To kill someone in the heat of the moment will usually lead to a charge of manslaughter not murder.
CC, what is extraordinary about Abbott is that in spite of his supposed ascendancy in the polls, he totally lacks the political courage to spell out his intentions, as if he knows that were his values and plans to see the light of day, his support would collapse.
The LNP are trying to win the election without any policies at all. It remains to be seen whether they can with nothing to offer the electorate. But one thing is absolutely certain – it is not possible to govern with no policies. A policy-free Government might be elected in September, but would not last till Christmas before things started to fall to pieces.
AA @1936 – you are aware Australia has a Petroleum Resource Rent Tax in place – mainly because Petroleum was generally not subject to Royalties to the same extent as minerals.
I don’t have problem with a Resource Rent Tax as long as it is done effectively and efficiently. The ALP system is neither – especially without sorting out the Royalties situation with the States.
ALP fail again.
m
‘Boerwar
I disagree, a true racist or bigot is that all the time not just in the heat of the moment.
To be in an heated argument and call someone a bitch or bastard doesn’t mean you hate all women or men and it doesn’t man that you hate the person the comment is aimed at.’
If you call someone an ape, meaning that they belong to an inferior race, then that construct just does not come out of thin air. You did not just make it up. You have internalized the constructs that give meaning to ‘ape’. Those constructs are part of your normal self.
‘Bitch’ is the same, as is ‘bastard’. A ‘bastard’ was a lesser person because they were ‘illegitimate’. Nowadays most people don’t care too much, but the basic message remains the same, that you believe ‘bastards’ to be lesser people and that you are applying the term to tell the other person they belong to a class of a lesser persons.
It is true, however, that the interpretation of language is subject to context and to the relationships involved.
‘To be racist is to hate and discriminate whenever possible.’
Racists do not always behave in a racist manner. Many racists routinely suppress their racism, particularly if they believe that it will lead them to conflict, to personal criticism from others, to unpleasant workplace procedures, or to court action.