BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

  1. The only self blame here for me is trying to talk sense to CC. But I suppose even an exercise in futility is exercise.

  2. [actually, I’m not going to wait for you to think.

    That’s 20 people who have voted twice.]

    Bingo…!!!

    Now how do we disqualify their vote… just gotta go into the ballot box and pull out the ones with my name on it… oh… shit… wait…

    You didn’t think this one through did you? It doesn’t matter how many names they count on the ballot books every vote is accepted as genuine otherwise they need a complete revote.

    Now online system… 4 votes from the same guy with the same address, each one linked to a confirmation number that can be matched to their vote.

  3. [Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    The faith Australians have in the AEC is a lot higher than “probably”

  4. [2350
    Compact Crank

    The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    Sensible people everywhere are afraid of right wing zealotry and deceit, CC. Your mob have form and the cultural memory is very long and deep.

  5. [The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    Dude, you’re the one spouting the unsubstantiated, tin-foil hat, conspiracy theory here…

  6. Given the way Unions and ALP factions like to un elections I think Australian voters have mor to fear from left than the right.

  7. That’s about as useful as saying business people shouldn’t be politicians because businesses are not democratic institutions.

  8. ST – Go to a POLLING BOOTH is you are an undriving, internet-free, mobile phone devoid moron.

    You prove you are an immature foul mouthed under educated indulged little twerp who is so full of himself that people shun you

    Your opinion is that anyone who;
    a) doesn’t have a drvers licence
    b) doesn’t have the internet
    c) does not have a mobile phone
    – is a moron

    Perhaps you should take a trip out to some of the remote aboriginal communities (and I can help you out there)or visit an old people’s home and tell the people that live in these places they are “morons”.

  9. Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
    Carey – they like to check their minions are voting the correct way.

    What a crock of bullsh-t

  10. [2359
    Compact Crank

    Given the way Unions and ALP factions like to un elections I think Australian voters have mor to fear from left than the right.]

    Yet another vague and unsubstantiated allegation of some
    kind, and one that frames politics as contest between “left” and “right.”

    While I am happy to concede the “Right” self-identify and conform to a set of ideological values, I don’t think the case can be made for the existence of a “Left” in Australian politics, other than (possibly) in some of the deeper recesses of the Greens.

    I think there is a dominant paradigm within which most issues are conceived, debated, contested and decided. I think the self-classifying “Right” want to change this paradigm.

    This “Rightist” group have adopted some, but not the most important and valuable, insights of market economics. And they have appropriated some of the language of so-called libertarians. But mostly this is a facade. This group is misnamed. They are really only about one thing: defending and advancing social and economic privilege.

    It follows that individuals and social groups that act to arrest privilege – like unions, social democratic political parties, consumer rights advocates, environmental organisations, many instruments of the State, elements of the judiciary, scientists and academics and independently educated voices such as those that express themselves here – are subject to ongoing political and cultural criticism.

    It suits the “Right” to lump us all together and label us as “Left”. But this too is a misnomer, because in fact there is great diversity among what are very heterodox actors. And really, this is why the “Right” will fail. They do not understand the source of their opposition.

    They might like to suppose their opponents are in some way as organised and managed as there own thinking is guided and scripted. But reality is not like this. The opposition to the “Right” is spontaneous, creative, based in lived reality (rather than in ideological fantasy), is socially-generated, widely distributed, has its own rich memories. It is therefore irresistible.

  11. zoidlord….you may be right!

    Nevertheless, their themes are frequently canvassed. It is still good to deal with them at face value. It is necessary to refute them – to answer them and to contest their methods.

  12. Visiting the polling booth is like like visiting the TAB on Melbourne Cup day

    Part of the experience.

    Its a traditional that doesn’t need changing.

  13. As I said before, if you’re agoraphobic or socially avoidant, then postal vote. It’s an easy process that currently exists and enables you to avoid that pesky journey down to your local primary school and exposure to all those other people there…

  14. It was my birthday yesterday, and my sister Sally’s birthday today.

    My sister has the breathless thing, as do I.

    I think that Puff is suffering it.

    I do hope that Puff and my dear sister Sally are ok.

    Even though Sally is dopey enough to vote Liberal.

  15. cw
    I hope your sister and you get well soon, this thing is awful. I kept coughing until my ribs hurt.

  16. Thanks CW, I am chewing the Aussie garlic, drinking the hot lemon juice with brandy and swallowing antibiotics.

  17. Pff

    try fresh ginger too
    several teasponns a day..or mixed into hot drinks.lemon etc

    A Chinese relative says itg a great remedy in China

    Buy some small jars in the supermarket…the fresh mashed ginger is best Masterfoods is good…mixes with honey and hot milk…and is very nice

  18. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/25/us-sweden-riots-idUSBRE94N0LN20130525

    [Sixth night of violence in Sweden, but police say capital calmer…

    Community patrols and a beefed-up police presence helped to calm violence around Stockholm overnight on Saturday but 20 to 30 cars were still torched in poor immigrant suburbs and serious incidents were reported outside the capital for the first time.

    The rioting in Stockholm abated after a week of masked youths vandalizing schools and police stations, setting cars alight and hurling stones at firefighters, police said.

    “It was much calmer – rocks weren’t being thrown at police or firefighters – and that’s a sign that it’s calmer. We haven’t had any riots or anything similar,” said police spokesman Kjell Lindgren.

    Community leaders were taking to the streets, dressed in fluorescent jackets, to try to calm things down.

    “We have been present in many places, we’ve been talking to people, and many residents have been out in the city, keeping their eyes open, being engaged,” Lindgren said.

    But serious incidents were reported outside the Stockholm area, for the first time.

    …..Underscoring Sweden’s ambivalence toward its open immigration policies, an anti-immigrant party has risen to third in polls this year and some analysts say the riots could swell its ranks.

    Dozens of far-right activists were seen driving around some southern suburbs of Stockholm on Friday, closely watched by police.

    MASKED YOUTHS

    The violence has echoes of rioting in recent years in Paris and London but has been relatively mild in comparison. There has been no looting, hardly any injuries and few arrests.

    Much of the capital has gone about business as normal and even affected suburbs look normal by day.

    Still, it has shocked a nation that has long taken pride in its generous social safety net, though some seven years of centre-right rule have chipped away at benefits.

    One recent government study showed that up to a third of young people aged 16 to 29 in some of the most deprived areas of Sweden’s big cities neither study nor have a job.

    Youth unemployment is especially high in neighborhoods such as the ones where the riots have taken place, home to asylum seekers from Iraq to Somalia, Afghanistan and Latin America.

    About 15 percent of Sweden’s population is foreign-born. While many are from neighboring Nordic countries, others are drawn by the country’s policy of welcoming asylum seekers from war-torn countries.

    The gap between rich and poor in Sweden is growing faster than in any other major nation, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.]

    Reuters doesn’t say who is responsible for the violence in Sweden. Is it rightist gangs? Is it alienated immigrant youth?

    There is a message in this for us too, and that is that failure to properly settle immigrant populations can lead to trouble.

  19. deblonay
    The importation of teaparty ideology into Australia is one of the threats to our future. And Corgi Bernardi is one of the dangerous nutters responsible for it, imo.

    On a related matter, when I heard the Anti Vaccine Nutter on radio, she had an American accent. For once in my life, I felt like yelling, “go home if you don’t like it.”

  20. The only thing I can find about the AVN founders bio.
    [Meryl Dorey

    Meryl Dorey is a native New Yorker who settled in Australia 14 years ago. She and her husband Ken, an avid rainforest regenerator, have 4 children ranging in age from 13 to 6. Her eldest son was injured by vaccines, leading her to start researching the issues of vaccination and health. Her findings led to the formation of a local vaccination support group which eventually merged with other groups across Australia to form the Australian Vaccination Network (AVN). Their new magazine, “Informed Choice”, covers all health issues from the perspective of cure and prevention without the use of drugs or vaccines. Subscriptions are $44 a year and include discounts on books and seminars as well as premiums at many practitioner’s offices… ]
    I have cut out their links, the less the better imo.

    Found on:
    http://kindred.dev-site.org/author/meryldorey/bio/30

  21. Sean Tisme@2290

    We already do… it’s called your mobile phone number.

    Absolute stupidity. There’s nothing more insecure than tying everything to the most stolen item in the world (mobile phones).

    Plus it removes the “secret” part of the secret ballot.

    A government you didn’t vote for (of any persuasion) knows exactly how you voted.

    These Thirteenth Century minds haven’t got their heads around 20th Century technology yet, let alone 21st.

    #Fraudband is a perfect example of this lack of vision.

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